Monday Watch List

Markets

No major economic reports are scheduled for Monday but weekly grain inspections will likely be released at 10 a.m. CDT which will offer at least a glimpse into export business amid the pause in Thursday sales updates. Traders will also be alert to news and comments regarding the U.S./China trade relationship after last week's sudden deterioration which has put the planned month-ending meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi into question.

Weather

A front has moved into the Central Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. Periods of showers will develop along the front throughout the day, though showers will get more intense over the Central Plains later in the day as a system starts to develop there going into Tuesday.

No WASDE Report Could Mean a November Market Surprise

On Thursday, no news WAS the news. Due to the government shutdown, the USDA did not release the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, report that was scheduled for noon Eastern time, according to Successful Farming. That means the market did not receive updated production data at a time when, according to one expert, traders are “fixated with yields.” “There’s still a chance we could get the October reports later this month, though USDA would have to restart field survey work, so that seems unlikely at this point,” said Brian Grete, a senior grain and livestock analyst with Commstock Investments. Experts say in 2013 and 2019, the USDA never released the WASDE reports that were impacted by government shutdowns. This begs the question, what will the lack of new data mean for the market? Analysts have weighed in. “The main impact in the near term should be to keep traders more cautious than normal,” said Ian Berry, lead editor of The Brock Report at Brock Associates. 

Study Shows Iowa Food Farmers Had a $66.5M Economic Output

A survey of the commercial horticulture food crops industry in Iowa showed direct specialty crop sales of more than $79 million in 2022 and even higher figures of economic output attributable to the industry. The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship (IDALS) announced the results of the 2023 survey Wednesday and said it shows the local produce industry is “diverse, growing, and making a significant contribution to Iowa’s economy and agricultural identity.” The survey was sent to Iowa specialty crop producers who grow edible crops such as vegetables, fruits, berries, nuts, honey, maple syrup, herbs, mushrooms and pumpkins. According to a news release from IDALS, this is the first “comprehensive look” at the industry since 2015. More than 850 specialty farmers participated in the survey, which found that a total of 11,650 acres of specialty crops were grown in 2023. Sales from these farms had a statewide economic output of $66.5 million in 2023 and supported $29.9 million in labor.

Ethanol Production Surges to Highest in a Month

Ethanol output jumped to the highest level in a month last week, while inventories declined modestly, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Production of the biofuel rose to an average of 1.071 million barrels in the seven days that ended Oct. 3, the U.S. government agency said in a report yesterday. On its website, the agency said it will continue normal publication of reports and data collection until further notice. That is in contrast to USDA reports that have been put on hold or canceled until the government shutdown ends. In the Midwest, by far the biggest producer of ethanol, production averaged 1.025 million barrels a day, up from 940,000 the previous week, the EIA said. That was the lone gainer, as all other regions saw week-to-week declines. Gulf Coast output was down to 22,000 barrels from 26,000 a day a week earlier and West Coast production dropped to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 the week prior, the agency reported. 

Jack Daniel’s is Ending a Program That Helped Farmers Feed Cows with its Scraps

Tennessee whiskey distiller Jack Daniel’s is terminating a decades-long program that provided the company’s corn byproduct “slop” to local cattle farmers at low or no cost, allowing the farmers to inexpensively feed their cattle. According to Moneywise, that slop, a thick, nutrient-rich blend of corn and grain, has been a quiet but vital link between the world’s best-selling whiskey and the local farms that surround it. For decades, it kept feed costs low, cattle healthy, and waste out of landfills. The “Cow Feeder Program” is to end March 31, as the company transitions to a new partnership with Michigan-based Three Rivers Energy, which will convert the waste into renewable fuel and fertilizer. The change has left farmers in and around south-central Tennessee’s Moore County reeling, searching for ways they might continue to earn a living through raising cattle. Livestock makes up 89% of Moore County’s farm earnings, according to the most recent U.S. Census of Agriculture. 

Texas’ Cotton Industry Gets New Lifeline with Agriculture Infrastructure Stability Act

Texas Congressman Ronny Jackson has introduced the Agriculture Infrastructure Stability Act, legislation aimed at stabilizing the cotton industry after years of drought and market volatility. The Dallas Express reports that the bill directs the Department of Agriculture’s Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) to create new insurance policies that would give cotton farmers more incentives to harvest after early-season crop losses. Republican leaders say the measure would help keep cotton moving through the supply chain — protecting not just farmers but also gins, warehouses, small businesses, and co-ops that rely on steady production. “We must ensure that both our cotton farmers and supply chain have the support they need to remain viable for future generations,” Jackson said when announcing the bill. Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller quickly endorsed the legislation, calling it “exactly the kind of direct intervention our cotton industry needs.” 

USGBC Members Visit Top Agricultural Export Customers

The U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council (USGBC), in partnership with state and national checkoff organizations, recently participated in strategic visits to Canada and Mexico to update member leaders on the Council’s international investments and represent the strategic vision of U.S. corn and sorghum growers to customers. “This mission provided a unique opportunity for state leaders to directly engage in U.S. agriculture’s largest export markets for corn, barley, distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) and sorghum, strengthening bonds with global customers and reinforcing the U.S. industry’s commitment to reliable grain and ethanol supply,” said USGBC Vice President Cary Sifferath. The delegation arrived in Mexico City for a meeting with U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) staff based in the country followed by discussions with several feed milling associations and rail transportation stakeholders. After traveling to Ottawa, the group met with a slate of policymakers including leaders from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Natural Resources Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to discuss the strong ethanol trade between the U.S. and Canada.