Minnesota Led U.S. in 2026 Q1 Farm Bankruptcies

Minnesota led the nation in farm bankruptcies during the first quarter of 2026, highlighting growing financial pressure across the agricultural economy. According to reporting from the Minnesota Reformer, eight Minnesota farmers filed for bankruptcy during the first three months of the year — already double the total number recorded in all of 2024. Agricultural economists say falling commodity prices, rising input costs, and shrinking profit margins continue to strain farm finances. “It’s really this margin squeeze on an industry that already operates on extremely thin margins,” said agricultural economist Samantha Ayoub of the International Fresh Produce Association. Additional signs of stress are appearing across the Midwest. A new Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago survey found weaker farmland demand, lower cash rents, and tightening credit conditions throughout the region. Southwestern Minnesota farmer Bob Worth said many producers are considering leaving agriculture altogether. “They just don’t want to lose any more money,” Worth said.

Soybean Growers Support Final 45Z Guidance

American Soybean Association Secretary Jordan Scott urged federal officials to quickly finalize guidance for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit during testimony before the U.S. Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service. Scott, a fifth-generation soybean farmer from South Dakota, said certainty surrounding the biofuel tax credit is critical for strengthening demand for U.S.-grown soybeans and supporting farm income during a difficult economic period. “Federal tax credit certainty for the biofuel industry supports U.S. agriculture by bolstering market access and creating value-added opportunities for farmers,” Scott said. “Conversely, the lack of tax credit certainty affects the markets that U.S. soybean farmers depend on.” Scott highlighted recent changes to the 45Z program that improve competitiveness for soy-based biofuels by removing indirect land use change penalties on agricultural feedstocks. He also encouraged Treasury and IRS officials to finalize guidance before the 2026 harvest season and continue developing policies that reward climate-smart farming practices.

USDA Opens Research Facility to Combat Livestock Pests

USDA opened a new research laboratory aimed at helping cattle producers better protect their herds from costly insect and tick threats that can impact animal health and ranch profitability. The new U.S. Livestock Insects Research Laboratory, operated by USDA’s Agricultural Research Service, will focus on developing tools to combat invasive pests such as the New World Screwworm, ticks, and disease-carrying flies. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the facility will strengthen efforts to keep dangerous livestock pests like the New World Screwworm out of the United States and support long-term herd protection for producers. “This lab will help us accelerate our offensive efforts to drive this pest further away from our borders,” Rollins said. The 52,000-square-foot facility includes advanced research labs, cattle handling facilities, and a genomics center designed to identify pest weaknesses and improve control methods. Researchers will study trapping systems, pesticide resistance, new treatment technologies, and improved delivery methods to reduce losses and protect herd health.

Farmers for Soil Health Reopens Program Enrollment

Farmers for Soil Health has reopened enrollment for 2026, offering farmers higher payments and a simplified contract aimed at encouraging more cover crop adoption across U.S. farmland. The farmer-led initiative, launched in 2022 by the Soy Checkoff, Pork Checkoff, and the National Corn Growers Association, is increasing payments to $35 per acre on up to 2,000 acres. The program has also reduced contracts to a one-year commitment, giving growers more flexibility. Enrollment runs through Aug. 31. “Cover crops aren’t just good for the soil — they’re good for the bottom line,” said Indiana farmer Jim Douglas, a farmer advisor for Farmers for Soil Health. “The $35-per-acre payment on a simplified one-year contract removes a lot of the risk that keeps people on the fence.” The initiative aims to double U.S. cover crop acres by 2030 and is supported by a $95 million USDA grant. Technical advisors remain available to help farmers enroll and implement practices successfully.

Responsible Weight Limit Adjustments in Transportation Bill

Farmers could see lower grain hauling costs and fewer transportation bottlenecks under a proposal advancing through Congress that would allow heavier six-axle semis on interstate highways. An amendment introduced by South Dakota Congressman Dusty Johnson was added to the BUILD America 250 Act, creating a voluntary pilot program allowing states to permit six-axle trucks weighing up to 91,000 pounds on federal interstates. Agricultural groups, including the Soy Transportation Coalition, say the change would help farmers move grain more efficiently at a time of tight margins and high diesel prices. “Enhancing trucking efficiency could not be timelier,” the coalition said, citing rising fuel costs and continued pressure on farm profitability. Supporters estimate that a grain elevator using the heavier trucks could eliminate more than 800 trips per year while reducing fuel use by about 8,000 gallons annually. The coalition said farmers in states with higher weight allowances could save an average of $756 each year in fuel costs.

Farmers’ Union Wants a Stronger Safety Net

The National Farmers Union is calling on Senate leaders to strengthen the farm safety net this year as farmers face mounting financial pressure from rising costs, falling margins, and growing debt levels. NFU said farm bankruptcies have increased 46 percent while many producers continue struggling with tighter operating margins and volatile markets. The organization argues that current farm policy relies too heavily on emergency disaster aid instead of dependable long-term risk management tools farmers can count on. “Farmers need certainty and not short-term fixes,” NFU said in its call to Congress. The group is urging lawmakers to create a stronger safety net that better reflects current production costs and market conditions while reducing reliance on after-the-fact disaster assistance. The organization is also promoting a new risk management proposal called IMSET, which would allow farmers to place up to 20 percent of cropland into conservation use in exchange for enhanced reference prices on remaining acres.

Friday Watch List

Markets

On Friday, USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT, delayed by one day due to Monday's holiday. In the afternoon, CFTC will release the weekly Commitments of Traders report, updating trader positions as of May 26.

Weather

A zone of showers continues to be quite active across the South and Southeast on Friday due to a lingering old front and upper-level system in the area, which continues through the weekend. A wave of scattered showers continues from southern South Dakota into the Delta, which could produce some heavy rain. And a system in the West is finally starting to make a move northeast toward the Northern Plains. Doing so will bring scattered showers to the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, and the rest of the Plains throughout Friday.

Rural Mainstreet Index Falls Under Growth Neutral Again

The Rural Mainstreet Index remained below growth neutral for a fourth straight month in May as weak grain prices, rising input costs, and economic uncertainty continued to pressure rural economies across a ten-state region. Creighton University’s monthly survey of rural bank CEOs showed the overall index fell to 45.7 in May from 47.9 in April. A reading below 50 signals economic contraction. “Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the rural business community,” said Creighton economist Ernie Goss. Nearly 48 percent of bankers surveyed said farmers’ financial conditions worsened in 2026 compared to a year earlier. The farm equipment sales index dropped to 18.2, marking the 33rd straight month below growth neutral. Bankers also pointed to volatility tied to the Iran conflict, higher fuel prices, and weak farm cash flow expectations. Despite economic pressure, first-quarter agricultural exports from the region increased 7.5 percent.

RFA Recommends Improvements to 45Z Regulations

The Renewable Fuels Association is urging the U.S. Treasury Department to quickly finalize regulations for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, saying continued delays are creating uncertainty for renewable fuel producers and investors. In testimony, RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said the tax credit has the potential to strengthen domestic energy production, support rural economies, and encourage innovation in renewable fuels and agriculture. “We believe that, if implemented effectively, the 45Z tax credit can stimulate domestic energy production, strengthen U.S. energy security, bolster rural economies, and drive innovation in the renewable fuels and agriculture industries,” Cooper said. RFA also called for the immediate release of an updated 45ZCF-GREET emissions model reflecting changes required under last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Cooper said producers are already halfway through the 2026 tax year without the updated model needed to determine emissions rates and tax credit values. 

Lawmakers Target Meatpacker Consolidation as Price Climb

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has introduced legislation aimed at lowering grocery prices by increasing competition within the U.S. meatpacking industry. Schumer unveiled the proposed “Family Grocery and Farmer Relief Act,” which would target consolidation among the nation’s largest meat companies while expanding support for smaller processors and producer cooperatives. “Corporate giants dominate the meat market and set prices sky-high for families, all while squeezing profits from farmers by eliminating competition, and it needs to end,” Schumer said. Schumer pointed to Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef, saying the companies collectively control most U.S. beef, pork, and chicken processing capacity. His proposal would require major meatpackers to focus on a single protein sector instead of operating across multiple markets. The legislation would also provide financial and technical assistance for smaller meat processors and local supply chains. The proposal comes as beef prices continue climbing. Meating Place said USDA forecasts additional food price increases in 2026.

Vermont is First to Ban Paraquat

Vermont has become the first state in the nation to ban paraquat, a widely used herbicide linked in scientific studies to Parkinson’s disease. Governor Phil Scott signed the legislation, with the ban set to take effect November 1, 2026. The law includes limited temporary exemptions for certain fruit crops through 2030. The move comes amid growing national scrutiny surrounding paraquat as researchers continue examining potential links between long-term exposure and Parkinson’s disease, particularly among agricultural workers and chemical applicators. Studies cited by the National Institutes of Health have found that paraquat users may be about 2.5 times more likely to develop Parkinson’s disease. Although paraquat remains legal in the U.S., over 70 countries, including China and members of the European Union, have already banned the chemical. The debate intensified after Syngenta announced it would stop manufacturing and seeking sales of paraquat products in the U.S.

Campaign to Promote Cheese as a High-Protein Option

The dairy checkoff is using National Cheese Day on June 4 to promote cheese as a high-protein snack option through a new campaign aimed at younger, fitness-focused consumers. Dairy Management Inc. launched the “Body by Cheese” campaign through its Dairy Does More platform, highlighting cheese as a convenient protein source for active lifestyles. Central to the campaign is the “Parm Bar,” a two-ounce block of Parmesan packaged like a protein bar to spotlight cheese’s nutritional benefits. “Consumers already love cheese, but our opportunity is helping them think about cheese differently and creating new usage occasions,” said Aris Georgiadis (jor-jee-AH-dihs), DMI senior vice president of integrated marketing. The Parm Bar will not be sold in stores and instead will be distributed through influencer giveaways and social media promotions tied to National Cheese Day. DMI says Parmesan contains about nine grams of protein per ounce and hopes the campaign encourages consumers to view cheese as a snack food option.

Policy Change Good for U.S. Fertilizer Deliveries

The Fertilizer Institute is praising a temporary federal waiver on hours-of-service regulations for fertilizer deliveries, saying the move will help keep nutrients moving to farms during the busy planting season. The exemption will run from May 26 through Aug. 26, 2026, temporarily easing federal limits on driving hours and rest requirements for commercial truck drivers hauling fertilizer products. “TFI thanks USDA Secretary Rollins and DOT Secretary Duffy for recognizing the essential need of getting fertilizer from production plants and retailers to farmers exactly when and where it is needed,” said TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch. The waiver is especially important because farmers have a limited window for fertilizer applications during spring planting. He added that transportation flexibility can help prevent supply chain bottlenecks as the industry transitions into summer and fall fertilizer demand. All fertilizer travels by truck at least once before reaching farms, making reliable transportation a critical part of the agricultural supply chain.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

On Thursday morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the first revision of first quarter U.S. GDP, along with the April Personal Consumption Expenditure report, both at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Later, the Energy Information Administration will release the delayed Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CDT, including last week's ethanol production.

Weather

An active zone of showers and thunderstorms continues over the Southeast on Thursday. Meanwhile, a batch of showers is moving northward through the Plains, hitting some very dry areas with some good rainfall. Additional showers will develop in the Pacific Northwest and could produce some severe weather.

Cattle on Feed Report Shows Unexpected Rise in Inventory

The USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed a surprising rise in feedlot inventories. It’s a remarkable shift in the recent market direction as it’s the first year-over-year inventory increase the industry has seen in 18 months. The USDA said cattle and calves on feed for slaughter markets in the U.S. for feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on May 1. The total inventory sits two percent above May 1, 2025, topping the average pre-report analyst expectations. The primary driver behind the larger inventory was a significant increase in April placements, which totaled 1.7 million head, a six percent increase compared to the same period last year. Analysts had projected a lighter placement number. The surge in placements was driven largely by dry weather in the Plains states, which led to fed cattle marketings dropping by ten percent.

Highway Reauthorization Bill Focuses on Rural Infrastructure

The Fertilizer Institute is voicing strong support for a bipartisan surface transportation proposal advancing in the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. The legislation is known as the BUILD America 250 Act. Industry leaders say the proposal would strengthen rural infrastructure, improve supply chain reliability, and support farmers nationwide. TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said reliable transportation systems are critical to moving fertilizer and agricultural products efficiently across the country. “A safe, efficient, and modern transportation network is essential to keeping fertilizer and other agricultural inputs moving to farms and getting agricultural products to market,” Rosenbusch said. The organization particularly praised the bill’s focus on rural roads, bridges, and freight corridors that connect farms and agricultural facilities to major highways. TFI noted that all fertilizer is transported by truck at least once before reaching farms and said aging infrastructure contributes to delays, inefficiencies, and higher transportation costs throughout the agricultural supply chain.

Green Fertilizer Market Value to Grow by 2035

A new report from Global Market Insights projects continued growth in the global green fertilizer market as demand rises for more sustainable agricultural practices worldwide. The report estimates the market was valued at $2.7 billion in 2025 and could grow to $4 billion by 2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. Researchers said green fertilizers are becoming an increasingly important part of regenerative agriculture by helping improve soil health, reduce chemical use, and support long-term productivity. Demand is being driven by stricter environmental regulations and growing consumer interest in sustainably produced food. The report found that renewable urea accounted for 27.5 percent of the market in 2025 and is expected to see strong growth over the next decade because of its nutrient efficiency and lower environmental impact. Agriculture remained the largest end-use segment, representing more than 68 percent of the market. North America held the largest regional share in 2025 at just over 30 percent.

Democrats Concerned About Food and Nutrition Service Reorganization

Senator Amy Klobuchar and 25 Senate colleagues are raising concerns over a planned reorganization of the Food and Nutrition Service within the USDA, warning the move could weaken administration of key federal nutrition programs. The senators said the restructuring comes after significant staffing losses and major reductions to nutrition assistance programs over the past year. The FNS oversees 16 federal nutrition programs, including SNAP, WIC, and the National School Lunch and Breakfast programs, which millions of Americans rely on each year. “We write with strong concern regarding the reorganization of the Food and Nutrition Service at the USDA,” the senators wrote. “After dramatic cuts to nutrition assistance programs and the significant staff losses at FNS, this reorganization will further weaken the ability of the agency to administer federal nutrition assistance programs.” The senators also criticized recent administration actions affecting food assistance, including canceled food orders for food banks and schools, and cuts to SNAP funding.

Dairy Stewardship Program Integrates Important Updates

The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management Environmental Stewardship Program has announced updates to its Version 3 evaluation tool, incorporating the latest scientific advancements from the Ruminant Farm Systems, or RuFaS, model used to measure dairy sustainability practices. National Milk Producers Federation Chief Sustainability Officer Nicole Ayache said the updates will help dairy farmers better understand how management decisions affect their environmental footprint while identifying stewardship opportunities that also support business goals. “FARM Environmental Stewardship continues to adapt as science and technology advance within the dairy sector,” Ayache said. The revised tool now integrates homegrown feed production into a farm’s total environmental footprint to better account for field-level practices. Updates also improve scientific modeling tied to youngstock manure management and manure storage systems, including improved sensitivity to temperature impacts. Industry leaders said the program continues to provide dairy producers with science-based sustainability tools that work across different farm sizes, production systems, and geographic regions.

USGBC Hosts Conference in Tokyo to Promote U.S. Grains

The U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council hosted its U.S. Feed Grains and Sustainability Conference in Tokyo last week, bringing together roughly 100 Japanese buyers and end users to discuss sustainable U.S. grain production and trade opportunities. Representatives from the Council highlighted sustainability practices used by American farmers and showcased tools designed to help international customers import U.S. agricultural products. Former USGBC Chairwoman and New Mexico sorghum farmer Verity Ulibarri (VEHR-it-tee oo-lih-BAR-ee) joined USGBC Director of Global Sustainability Carlos Suárez (SWAH-rez) in presenting information on responsible land stewardship and sustainability verification programs. “The Council has developed tools, including the Corn Sustainability Assurance Protocol and Sorghum Assurances Protocol, to enhance U.S. agriculture’s competitiveness in mature markets,” Suárez said. Council officials also met with Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries to discuss sustainable agricultural development. Following the conference, the Council’s team participated in two industry roundtable events that furthered discussions about the value of U.S. feed grains in the Japanese market, particularly regarding sustainability metrics and applications in aquaculture feed.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

There are no major agricultural or macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday. Traders will remain vigilant for news regarding negotiations in the Middle East, while also watching the U.S. weather forecast.

Weather

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will develop across a wide area of the U.S. for Wednesday. A diffuse, old front across the Southeast continues to produce widespread coverage that is leaking north of the Ohio River as well. An upper-level low-pressure system is bringing widespread thunderstorms to Texas that should spread farther north into Oklahoma and perhaps Kansas. A system is spinning around in the West with showers and into the Pacific Northwest with some showers. That system should promote increasing coverage in the Plains and western Canadian Prairies later Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota this morning will spread more into Wisconsin and Michigan for this afternoon and evening as well.

China Halts Beef Imports from Brazil over Hormones

China has suspended beef imports from three Brazilian meatpacking plants after detecting synthetic veterinary hormones in cattle, according to a report by Globo Rural and confirmed by Reuters. The affected plants are operated by JBS, Prima Foods and Frialto. China prohibits the use of certain synthetic hormones in beef production, and the suspensions come as Brazil seeks expanded access to the Chinese market, its largest foreign customer for beef exports. Brazilian officials recently requested approval for exports from 33 additional meatpacking facilities. The companies involved did not immediately comment on the suspensions. Brazil’s beef industry association, Abiec, also has not publicly detailed how long the restrictions may remain in effect. Earlier last week, China approved the resumption of shipments from three other Brazilian beef plants that had previously faced restrictions. The latest move adds uncertainty to trade between the two countries as China continues closely monitoring imported meat supplies.

Low Mississippi River Water Levels Raise Shipping Costs for Farmers

Low water levels on the Mississippi River are increasing transportation costs for American farmers as drought conditions continue to disrupt barge traffic along one of the nation’s most important agricultural shipping routes. According to the Associated Press, barge operators have been forced to reduce cargo loads to prevent vessels from running aground in shallow sections of the river. Freight rates from St. Louis rose roughly 77% above the three-year average during recent low-water periods, increasing costs for moving corn, soybeans and wheat to Gulf Coast export terminals.  Nearly half of all U.S. grain exports travel through the Mississippi River system. Federal drought officials said reduced river traffic can also slow fertilizer shipments and create supply chain problems for agricultural producers heading into future planting seasons.

California Peach Growers Remove Trees After Plant Closure

California peach growers are removing hundreds of thousands of trees after the closure of Del Monte canning facilities left farmers without a major buyer for cling peaches, according to Fortune magazine. The report said one Del Monte plant had processed roughly 30% of California’s cling peach crop. Growers now expect approximately 420,000 peach trees to be destroyed as producers reduce acreage and attempt to limit future losses. Industry leaders said the closures reflect broader challenges facing specialty crop growers, including labor shortages, rising production costs and reduced consumer demand for canned fruit products. Some farmers said they may shift acreage to almonds or other crops with stronger market opportunities. Agricultural economists warned that the reductions could affect rural jobs and local processing businesses throughout California’s Central Valley. Growers are also seeking additional export opportunities and state assistance to help stabilize the industry.

Farmers Watch Tariff Relief Discussions Closely

The USDA is continuing to evaluate possible tariff relief options for farmers impacted by trade disputes and rising production costs, according to USDA officials. Reports said the department has been analyzing potential assistance measures as farmers face weaker export demand and higher costs for machinery, fertilizer and fuel. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins previously said aid discussions were underway alongside negotiations involving Chinese agricultural purchases. Farm organizations said uncertainty surrounding tariffs has complicated long-term planning for producers already dealing with tight profit margins. Some groups are urging Congress and the administration to provide greater stability in trade policy before the next planting season. USDA officials said recent trade agreements could help reduce the agricultural trade deficit and open additional overseas markets for U.S. products. Economists noted that many farmers remain cautious until details of future tariff policies become clearer. 

New Trade Deals Aim to Expand U.S. Agricultural Markets

The USDA says new international trade agreements are designed to create additional export opportunities for American agriculture as officials work to reduce the nation’s agricultural trade deficit. According to USDA information released this month, agreements with countries including Taiwan, Bangladesh, Ecuador and Guatemala are expected to improve market access for U.S. grains, meat, dairy and specialty crops. USDA officials said some agreements reduce tariffs and simplify import regulations for American products. The department also highlighted progress in negotiations involving China, Japan and the United Kingdom. Officials said expanded agricultural trade could help strengthen farm income and rural economies. Agricultural groups welcomed the new agreements but said global competition remains strong, particularly from South American exporters. Economists noted that reliable transportation systems and stable trade relationships will be important for maintaining export growth.

Enrollment Underway for Cover Crop Incentive Program

Farmers for Soil Health has opened enrollment for its 2026 cover crop incentive program, offering higher payments and shorter contract terms aimed at encouraging broader participation among row-crop producers. The farmer-led initiative said enrollment will remain open through Aug. 31 for eligible growers in 20 participating states. Farmers raising corn, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum or cotton may apply regardless of previous cover crop use. Under the updated program, participants can receive $35 per acre annually on up to 2,000 acres. The payment rate is an increase from prior years and is intended to better reflect the costs associated with planting cover crops. The program also reduced its contract requirement from multiple years to a one-year agreement, allowing growers to re-enroll annually. Farmers will continue to have access to technical advisors for enrollment and conservation support. “These updates more accurately reflect on-farm costs,” said Ben West, executive director of Farmers for Soil Health.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday is set to be a quiet day for reports with delayed export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT. In the afternoon, USDA will release the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. CDT, updating planting and condition ratings for U.S. crops.

Weather

An old front remains over the southern tier of the country, producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms from Texas and Oklahoma through the Tennessee Valley, Delta, and Southeast for Tuesday. A little disturbance may create some stronger thunderstorms across the northern tier as well but will be more spotty.

U.S. Farmers Lost $15 Billion to Tariffs

Recent studies by North Dakota State University revealed that U.S. tariffs and resulting retaliatory actions are driving significant economic losses for American agriculture, heavily impacting exports and raising farming costs. The study found that retaliatory tariffs from China caused roughly $15 billion in annualized losses for American agricultural exports. China’s embargo on U.S. soybeans alone accounts for almost half the total at $6.8 billion. It’s also caused significant damage to beef, poultry, and cotton exports. The study also showed that tariffs levied on agricultural imports, particularly those enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, have sharply increased costs for farmers. Trade Monitor analysis shows that tariffs on food and agricultural inputs have heavily reshaped global sourcing. While imports from tariffed countries like Brazil and India have dropped sharply, reliance on geopolitically volatile markets like Russia has increased, opening the U.S. to longer-term supply chain vulnerabilities. 

 

Cargill Locks Out 1,700 Workers at Colorado Beef Plant

Cargill has stopped paying approximately 1,700 employees at its beef processing facility in Fort Morgan, Colorado, as a labor dispute between the company and Teamsters Union workers continues to escalate. According to the workers’ union, the company halted pay on Wednesday after suspending cattle slaughter operations at the plant about a month ago. Cargill said it initiated a lockout after employees rejected what the company described as a fair contract proposal representing an estimated $33.4 million investment in workers. Reuters said the dispute comes during a turbulent period for the U.S. beef industry. Beef prices have reached record highs this year as consumer demand remains strong while the nation’s cattle herd sits at its lowest level in 75 years. Meatpackers have faced mounting pressure from tighter cattle supplies and rising livestock costs that have outpaced gains from higher beef prices. Workers have continued pushing for higher wages amid rising living costs.

DOJ Secures Anticompetitive Commitments from Bayer

The Justice Department announced Bayer CropScience has agreed to remove potentially anticompetitive provisions from its seed loyalty program amid an ongoing federal antitrust investigation into the corn and soybean seed markets. The DOJ said Bayer modified its Premier Performance Program after concerns were raised that the company’s policies could discourage competition among seed providers and limit choices for farmers and independent seed companies. One key change removes a provision that required seed companies to meet combined corn and soybean sales targets to qualify for discounts. Federal officials said that the structure raised concerns about anticompetitive tying between corn and soybean seed products. Bayer eliminated the requirement for the 2025 planting season and agreed not to reinstate it for seven years. The company also removed incentives that officials said may have discouraged seed companies from licensing competing technologies. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins praised the move, saying it strengthens competition throughout agricultural supply chains and improves fairness for farmers.

Ethanol Production Hits Highest Level in Over a Month

U.S. ethanol production climbed to its highest level in five weeks while inventories edged slightly higher, according to new data from the Energy Information Administration. Ethanol output averaged 1.111 million barrels per day during the week ending May 15, up from 1.082 million barrels the previous week. It marked the strongest weekly production level since April 10. The Midwest, the nation’s primary ethanol-producing region, led the increase. Production there averaged 1.056 million barrels per day, compared to 1.022 million barrels the week before, also reaching a five-week-high. East Coast production rose modestly to 13,000 barrels per day from 10,000 barrels a week earlier. Production in the Rocky Mountain and West Coast regions remained unchanged at 11,000 and 10,000 barrels per day, respectively. Meanwhile, Gulf Coast production declined to 21,000 barrels per day from 29,000 barrels the prior week. Ethanol inventories increased slightly, rising to 24.875 million barrels from 24.87 million barrels the week before.

Trump Reverses Position on Chinese Farmland Ownership

President Donald Trump defended Chinese purchases of U.S. farmland during a visit to Beijing, arguing that restricting foreign ownership could reduce farmland values and financially hurt American farmers. Speaking during an interview with Fox News, Trump said removing Chinese buyers from the market would negatively impact farm real estate prices. “You want to see farm prices drop, you want to see farmers lose a lot of money? Just take that out of the market,” Trump said. The comments marked a notable shift from Trump’s earlier hardline position on Chinese ownership of U.S. agricultural land and drew renewed attention from farmers and national security advocates concerned about foreign investment in farmland near military installations. The remarks also appeared to conflict with actions previously taken by Trump’s administration. In 2025, the USDA announced a National Farm Security Action Plan aimed at restricting future Chinese farmland purchases and encouraging divestment of existing holdings tied to foreign adversaries, including China.

Sugar Producers Applaud Congressional Letter on Unfair Trade Practices

America’s sugarbeet and sugarcane producers are applauding a bipartisan group of lawmakers urging the U.S. Trade Representative to investigate what they describe as unfair foreign sugar trade practices harming the domestic sugar industry. The letter was signed by more than 110 members of Congress. Lawmakers called on the administration to use Section 301 authority to examine over-quota sugar imports that producers say are disrupting the U.S. sugar market. According to the letter, excessive imports have undermined U.S. sugar policy and contributed to more than $3 billion in estimated industry losses over the past two years. Michigan sugarbeet farmer Clint Hagen said many producers face the possibility of losing hundreds of dollars per acre because of continued imports. Louisiana sugarcane farmer Stephen Simoneaux (SIGH-mon-oh) said maintaining domestic sugar production is critical to protecting U.S. food security, manufacturing jobs, and family farms. The American sugar industry supports more than 151,000 jobs throughout the sugar supply chain.  

Friday Watch List

Markets

On Friday, USDA will release the May Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CDT. Later at 2:30 p.m. CDT, CFTC will release the weekly Commitments of Traders report, updating positions held as of Tuesday, May 19.

Weather

A stalled front across the Southern Plains extends through the Tennessee Valley on Friday morning where scattered showers can be found throughout the day. Some of those thunderstorms could be severe across Texas and Oklahoma later Friday. Additionally, another system is moving through the Plains with widespread showers from North Dakota to Kansas. Those showers will spread into the Midwest throughout the day while the Tennessee Valley showers spread north into the Midwest as well. Both of these features will continue to produce some good rainfall over drought areas in the country.

Accelerated Permitting, Grant Program to Boost U.S. Fertilizer Production

The USDA announced new steps aimed at expanding domestic fertilizer production and lowering input costs for American farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration plans to accelerate permitting for fertilizer projects and revive a grant program to support domestic production. The effort could increase U.S. fertilizer output by approximately 4.5 million tons annually, benefiting an estimated 400,000 producers across 290 million acres of farmland. The administration is also reviewing additional short-term measures, including transportation regulations and countervailing duties involving fertilizer imports from Morocco. DTN also said administration officials highlighted the proposed $4 billion Blue Point low-carbon ammonia facility in Louisiana. Army Corps of Engineers officials said permitting decisions on the project could come within 45 days as part of a broader push to reduce regulatory delays. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the administration will expedite Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act permits tied to fertilizer projects.

China Talks Tariff Cuts Without Specific Details

China and the United States agreed to reduce tariffs on agricultural trade as part of a broader trade agreement announced following meetings between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. China’s Ministry of Commerce said both countries agreed “in principle” to include agricultural products within a reciprocal tariff reduction framework while establishing goals to expand two-way agricultural trade. But Reuters said Chinese officials didn’t specify which products would be included or provide implementation details. The announcement follows White House statements that China agreed to purchase an additional $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, on top of existing soybean commitments already negotiated between the two countries. Analysts say fulfilling those commitments would likely require China to reduce tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. The proposed purchases could return Chinese imports of U.S. products closer to record levels. China’s statement largely mirrored earlier comments from Washington but was more limited in detail.

TFI Welcomes USDA Crop Inputs Economist

The Fertilizer Institute is praising the USDA’s decision to reestablish a Crop Inputs Economist position within the Office of the Chief Economist. Announced by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, the position will provide independent analysis and reporting on fertilizer and other crop input markets, including supply, demand, production, trade, and pricing trends. TFI President and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said the move responds to concerns from farmers seeking greater market transparency and more reliable information to navigate volatility in the global fertilizer market. The organization previously supported the creation of the position during testimony before the Senate Agriculture Committee, arguing that fertilizer markets require detailed analysis because domestic production alone does not fully represent the competitive global marketplace serving U.S. growers. Rosenbusch said improved communication and transparency across the agricultural supply chain will help support farmers and ensure a stable fertilizer supply. The fertilizer industry continues investing in domestic production, transportation infrastructure, and distribution networks to strengthen long-term supply availability.

Young Pork Advocates to Compete for $10K Scholarship

NOVUS and Nutra Blend are once again partnering to sponsor the Young Pork Advocates Issues Meet during the 2026 World Pork Expo in Des Moines, Iowa. Now in its third year, the event is June 3-4 and hosted by the National Pork Producers Council. The competition features participants ages 18 to 22 presenting solutions to challenges facing the pork industry. Competitors then turn those ideas into mock policy motions modeled after the NPPC’s policy development process, giving young producers firsthand experience in how industry decisions are made. Scholarship prizes will be awarded to the top finishers, including a $10,000 scholarship and an all-expenses-paid trip to the NPPC’s Fall Legislative Action Conference in Washington, D.C., for the first-place winner. NOVUS Regional Sales Manager Eric Sanny said the competition highlights the best and brightest of the next generation’s pork industry leaders. Preliminary rounds will take place June 3 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, with the championship round scheduled for June 4.

Egg Production Up Five Percent in April

U.S. egg production rose five percent year-over-year in April as the number of layers also increased, the USDA said in a monthly report. Output totaled 8.92 billion eggs last month, up from 8.49 billion during the same month last year. That included 7.65 billion table eggs and 1.27 billion hatching eggs. Of the latter, 1.16 billion were broiler types, and 112 million were egg types. U.S. egg layers on May 1 totaled 373 million, a four percent increase on an annual basis. That consisted of 307 million producing table eggs, 61.5 million laying broiler-type hatching varieties, and 4.61 million producing egg-type hatching eggs. Hatchings of egg-type chicks fell slightly to 61 million in April, while eggs in incubators on May 1 fell two percent to 59.5 million. April broiler-type chicks hatched rose three percent annually to 867 million, while eggs in incubators in early April totaled 770 million, also a three percent increase.

MN Beef Checkoff Increase Failed by Three Votes

Minnesota cattle producers narrowly rejected a proposed increase to the state beef checkoff program. That’s according to results announced by Minnesota’s Department of Agriculture. The referendum would have raised the current $1-per-head beef checkoff fee to $1.50 per animal sold, while allowing producers to request a refundable 50-cent portion of the increase. State officials said the proposal failed by just three votes. Of the eligible ballots submitted, 380 producers voted against the increase while 377 voted in favor. A total of 3,477 ballots were mailed to cattle producers statewide. Minnesota’s beef checkoff has remained unchanged since 1986. Under the current structure, half of each dollar collected goes to the Minnesota Beef Council, while the remaining portion supports the  National Cattlemen’s Beef Board and the National Beef Checkoff program. Checkoff funds are used to support beef promotion, advertising, education, research, public relations, and product development programs designed to increase beef demand at both the state and national levels.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA will lead off Thursday with the weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The weekly and monthly livestock slaughter summaries will be released at 2 p.m. CDT. Traders will stay tuned for updates on the latest round of peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

Weather

Drought problems across the Plains and Southeast continue, but they will be getting moisture here on Thursday. A stalling front will produce showers in the Southeast while a pair of disturbances brings showers to the Plains.

Right-to-Repair Settlement Gets Preliminary Approval

A federal court has granted preliminary approval to John Deere’s proposed $99 million antitrust settlement involving farmer right-to-repair lawsuits. DTN said that clears the way for producers to review or challenge the agreement before final approval later this year. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois approved the preliminary settlement on Monday in a case involving lawsuits filed by farmers in 2022. Plaintiffs alleged that Deere monopolized the repair market by restricting access to diagnostic software and repair tools for company equipment. The court said the proposed agreement appears fair, reasonable, and adequate pending a final fairness hearing scheduled for Oct. 29, 2026. Under the agreement, Deere would establish a $99 million settlement fund for eligible farmers who paid authorized dealers for repairs since January 2018. The company also agreed to provide farmers access to digital diagnostic and repair tools for large agricultural equipment for the next ten years.

USDA Announces Livestock Insurance Program Enhancements

The USDA’s Risk Management Agency has announced several updates to livestock and dairy insurance programs beginning with the 2027 crop year. The changes affect the Livestock Risk Protection, Livestock Gross Margin, and Dairy Revenue Protection programs and were approved by the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation Board of Directors. Among the updates are new subsidy capture language addressing off-exchange contracts, revised definitions and subsidy percentages for beginning farmers and ranchers to align with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and expanded flexibility allowing concurrent coverage between similar livestock programs. RMA also said policies that have not earned premiums for three consecutive years may now be subject to cancellation. Additional revisions clarify when insurance coverage can be transferred and update policy language for consistency across RMA insurance products. RMA Administrator Pat Swanson said the changes are designed to strengthen risk management tools for livestock and dairy producers nationwide.

Soybean and Grain Export Inspections Drop

U.S. soybean and grain export inspections declined week over week, according to the latest data from the USDA. The agency said soybean inspections for offshore delivery totaled 483,881 metric tons during the week ending May 14. That was down from 663,400 tons the previous week but above the 225,350 tons inspected during the same week last year. Corn inspections also declined, falling to 1.38 million metric tons from 1.7 million the week before. However, inspections remain well ahead of last year’s pace overall despite trailing the 1.76 million tons reported during the same week in 2025. Wheat export inspections dropped sharply to 224,000 metric tons from 511,700 tons the previous week and 431,300 tons a year ago. Since the beginning of the marketing year, soybean inspections have totaled 34.5 million metric tons, below last year’s 44.2 million. Corn inspections reached 58.6 million metric tons, while wheat inspections climbed to 23.1 million tons.

American Meat Demand Stays High Despite Rising Prices

Americans continue to buy more meat despite rising grocery store prices. That’s according to a new Market Intel analysis from the American Farm Bureau Federation ahead of the Memorial Day grilling season. The report said meat sales reached $112 billion in 2025, with more than 98 percent of U.S. households purchasing meat for meals. USDA also forecasts that beef, pork, and chicken consumption will increase again in 2026. Beef prices remain at record highs, averaging $9.64 per pound in April, up 13 percent from a year earlier. Farm Bureau economists cited strong demand and the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years as major factors behind higher prices. Pork prices rose modestly, with pork chops averaging $4.33 per pound, while chicken prices remained relatively stable. Boneless chicken breasts averaged $4.17 per pound in April, slightly below year-ago levels as poultry production continues recovering from avian influenza outbreaks. AFBF President Zippy Duvall urged policymakers to support ranchers as producers work to rebuild livestock herds and meet consumer demand.

Pearce Officially Confirmed as BLM Head

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the American Sheep Industry Association, and Public Lands Council are congratulating former New Mexico Congressman Steve Pearce following his Senate confirmation as Director of the Bureau of Land Management. The livestock organizations said they strongly supported Pearce’s nomination, arguing that ranchers need permanent leadership at the BLM to help manage grazing permits and federal land operations more efficiently. NCBA President Gene Copenhaver said Pearce is well-positioned to strengthen partnerships with ranchers who manage millions of acres of rangeland and pasture across the West. ASI President Ben Lehfeldt said the sheep industry looks forward to working with Pearce in the months ahead. PLC President Tim Canturbury said Pearce has long supported the multiple-use mandate guiding federal land policy and understands the role ranchers play in conservation efforts on public lands. Industry groups said they expect Pearce’s leadership to help advance policies supporting grazing access, voluntary conservation work, and more efficient management of federal lands used by western livestock producers.

2026 U.S. Rice Crop Will Be Significantly Smaller

The USDA is forecasting a significantly smaller U.S. rice crop for the 2026-27 marketing year, according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. USDA projects rice production at 175.2 million hundredweight, down more than 31 million hundredweight, or 15 percent, from the previous year. If realized, it would mark the smallest U.S. rice crop since the 2022-23 marketing year. The decline is largely tied to reduced acreage. USDA estimates farmers planted 493,000 fewer acres of rice this season, leading to a 17 percent drop in harvested area to 2.27 million acres. Partially offsetting the acreage decline is an expected increase in yields. USDA forecasts average yields at 7,732 pounds per acre, up 188 pounds from last year. Harvested acreage estimates are based on USDA’s Prospective Plantings report and a ten-year harvested-to-planted ratio average. Updated acreage figures are expected in USDA’s Acreage report scheduled for release June 30.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday, the EIA will release the Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 a.m. CDT, including last week's ethanol production. No other major reports are scheduled, and traders will continue to monitor planting and growing season weather along with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Weather

A slow-moving cold front is anchoring over Texas and pushing through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Batches of showers and thunderstorms will form along and near it throughout the day. Areas across the Southeast may pick up some good rainfall as well. In addition, a pair of disturbances are coming together in the Plains, which will produce batches of showers and some thunderstorms there as well.

China Agrees to $17 Billion in Ag Purchases

China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products annually through 2028. That’s according to a White House fact sheet released Sunday following President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. The agreement came after meetings between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and represents one of the few concrete outcomes from the summit Trump previously described as a “monumental event.” The White House said the new commitments are in addition to an earlier agreement requiring China to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028. That soybean deal was reached during a broader trade truce negotiated at the leaders’ October 2025 summit in South Korea. The administration also announced China renewed expired registrations for more than 400 U.S. beef facilities and added new approved plants, expanding market access for American producers. In addition, China has resumed poultry imports from U.S. states deemed free of avian influenza by the USDA.

Soy Checkoff Launches Farmer Support Hub to Navigate Challenges

The United Soybean Board has launched the Soy Farmer Support Hub, a new online resource designed to help farmers access practical, research-backed tools for day-to-day challenges on the farm. Available through the Soy Checkoff, the hub organizes resources into three categories: For Your Fields, For Your Operation, and For You. The initiative aims to provide timely support for soybean farmers while also helping reduce farm stress during Mental Health Awareness Month in May. The “For Your Fields” section includes tools for variety selection, seeding rates, disease management, and biological product decisions. Tom Frisch, a Soy Checkoff farmer-leader from Minnesota, said the site helps farmers navigate the growing number of available resources. The hub also includes a suggestion box, allowing farmers to recommend additional tools and priorities directly to checkoff leaders. Meanwhile, the “For Your Operation” section focuses on profitability opportunities such as specialty soy premiums, sustainability programs, and cost-share funding options for producers.

NCGA Analysis Confirms Benefits of Year-Round E15

The National Corn Growers Association has released a new analysis showing year-round E15 sales would provide a net positive benefit for both corn and soybean farmers as legislation advances in the U.S. Senate. The study, conducted by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services for NCGA, found a representative farm with equal corn and soybean acres could see an average net benefit of more than $5 per acre over the projected period. According to the analysis, expanded E15 use would boost corn demand, support corn prices, reduce net Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage program outlays, and increase overall net returns across both crops. NCGA said the legislation would create a market-driven opportunity for farmers facing tight profit margins while also benefiting rural economies. “Nationwide E15 stands out as a market-driven solution that strengthens rural economies and delivers savings to taxpayers,” the study noted.

Over Half of U.S. Farmers Mistrust Federal Policies

A new national survey commissioned by Amato Advisors and conducted by Farm Journal shows many U.S. farmers are increasingly concerned about rising costs, trade pressures, and federal policy heading into the 2026 midterm elections. The Farmer & Rancher Policy Sentiment Survey questioned 974 farmers and ranchers across 44 states in April. According to the poll, 78 percent of respondents identified machinery and input costs, including fertilizer, fuel, seed, and chemicals, as one of the top challenges facing their operations. The survey also found 94 percent of farmers said the war with Iran is affecting their operations through higher fertilizer or energy costs. Trade policy and tariffs ranked among the top concerns for 25 percent of respondents. More than half of those surveyed said federal policies negatively impacted their farms during the past year, while 73 percent said elected officials do not understand the realities farmers face. Researchers said the findings indicate growing political frustration among a traditionally Republican-leaning voting bloc.

Dairy Groups Comment on the Combatting Organized Retail Crime Act

The National Milk Producers Federation and the U.S. Dairy Export Council are applauding House passage of the Combatting Organized Retail Crime Act, saying the measure would help address cargo theft and protect agricultural supply chains. NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud said the legislation would help dairy producers ensure products reach customers safely and on time. He thanked the House for advancing the bipartisan bill and said the organization looks forward to working toward Senate approval. USDEC President and CEO Krysta Harden said organized retail crime has increasingly affected dairy exporters as criminals break into shipping containers searching for high-value goods. She noted dairy exports have become collateral damage in many of those thefts, disrupting shipments and creating additional costs for exporters. Industry leaders said the legislation would provide dairy shippers and law enforcement with additional tools and resources to combat organized cargo theft and strengthen the reliability of U.S. food and agricultural transportation networks.

Combine Sales Increase in April

According to new data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), U.S. sales of combines increased 3.4 percent in April 2026 compared to the year before. Canadian sales of combines were also up, ending the month 42.7 percent higher than April 2025. "The April sales results of farm tractor and combine sales show the lingering softness in the equipment market,” said Curt Blades, Senior Vice President at AEM. “These reflect the lingering challenges and uncertainty in the Ag economy.” The progress on a US farm bill is encouraging and creates hope for more long-term growth.” He also said both U.S. and Canadian sales of agricultural tractors fell 11.3 percent year over year in April 2026.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday is a quiet schedule for reports, with USDA's monthly Chicken and Eggs release at 2 p.m. CDT. Otherwise, traders will monitor the U.S. weather forecast as planting reaches the homestretch, as well as watch for updates regarding the situation in the Middle East.

Weather

After a couple of days of intense severe weather, a cold front will remain active as it slowly pushes south through the Southern Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. Some severe weather will still be possible, as well as some areas of heavy rain. Cold air continues behind the front, which brought widespread frosts and some freezes to the Canadian Prairies, Northern Plains, and central High Plains Tuesday morning.

U.S. Expects Major Farm Export Deal Following Trump-Xi Summit

The United States expects China to agree to purchase “double-digit billions” of dollars in U.S. agricultural products annually following a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday. Greer said the anticipated agreement would extend beyond soybeans to include a broader range of agricultural goods over the next three years. He referenced an existing agreement under which China committed to buying 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually. Trump also said China would increase purchases of American farm products following the summit, though specific commodities and volumes were not immediately disclosed. Soybeans remain the top U.S. agricultural export to China and have long been central to trade negotiations between the two countries. Traders are also monitoring whether China could reduce soybean tariffs, potentially reopening purchases by private Chinese importers.

Court Upholds New AEWR Rates

A federal judge in California on Thursday denied a request by the United Farm Workers to temporarily block the Trump administration’s revised wage rule for H-2A agricultural workers, a decision welcomed by farm groups supporting the change. The case challenges the Labor Department’s interim Adverse Effect Wage Rate methodology, which affects wages for foreign farmworkers employed under the H-2A visa program. The UFW sought a preliminary injunction and emergency stay, arguing the rule could reduce wages and harm workers. The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California ruled the plaintiffs failed to demonstrate irreparable harm, saying claims of future wage losses and related hardships were largely speculative. The court also cited delays in seeking emergency relief. The judge did not rule on the broader merits of the lawsuit, which will continue. The court also found the UFW had standing to proceed on behalf of its members.

Dry Weather Slows Corn Planting Across Parts of Plains

Dry conditions across parts of the central Plains are delaying corn planting and increasing concerns among farmers already facing tight profit margins and rising input costs, according to producers interviewed by AgWeb. In central Kansas, some growers said fields remain too dry to support seed germination, leaving planters idle during a period that is typically one of the busiest of the spring season. Farmers reported that limited rainfall and worsening drought conditions have forced some to delay planting corn, soybeans and grain sorghum. The dry weather comes as producers contend with elevated fertilizer prices and broader economic pressures in the farm sector. Some farmers said they are hesitant to plant into dry soil without a more favorable forecast. Weather concerns have also added support to grain markets in recent weeks as traders monitor drought conditions across portions of the Plains and western Corn Belt.

Advocates Raise Concerns Over House FY27 Agriculture Spending Bill

Sustainable agriculture advocates are raising concerns about the House fiscal year 2027 agriculture spending bill, saying the proposal could reduce support for conservation, climate resilience and agricultural research programs. The House Appropriations Committee approved the measure in late April, advancing legislation that would provide about $26.3 billion in discretionary funding for agriculture, rural development and food safety programs, slightly below current spending levels. Republican lawmakers said the bill prioritizes farmers, ranchers and rural communities while reducing federal spending. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition said the proposal maintains some conservation funding enacted in previous legislation but falls short of addressing climate-related challenges facing farmers. The group also criticized staffing reductions at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and what it described as weakened support for conservation assistance and research programs. The legislation now faces consideration in the Senate, where lawmakers are expected to negotiate changes before a final spending package is approved.

U.S. Meat Sales Reach Record High as Consumers Prioritize Protein

U.S. retail meat sales climbed to a record $112 billion in 2025 as consumers continued prioritizing protein and fresh meat purchases despite higher grocery prices, according to the 2026 Power of Meat report released by the Meat Institute and FMI-The Food Industry Association. The annual report found meat sales rose 6.8% from the previous year, while pound sales increased 2%. Fresh meat sales reached nearly $80 billion, led by beef, chicken and pork. Researchers said younger shoppers, including Millennials and Gen Z consumers, helped drive growth. The report found 77% of consumers view meat and poultry as part of a healthy diet, while more than 90% said protein is important in their food choices. Industry groups said shoppers increasingly value meat for nutrition, convenience and taste. The report also noted that nearly all U.S. households purchased meat in 2025 and consumers averaged more than 56 meat-shopping trips during the year.

Global Rice Production Forecast to Decline for First Time in 11 Years

Global rice production is expected to fall in the 2026-27 marketing year, marking the first annual decline in more than a decade and raising concerns about tighter supplies and higher food prices worldwide. USDA forecasts global rice output at about 538 million metric tons, down from the previous year. The largest declines are expected in India, Myanmar and the United States, where farmers are projected to plant fewer acres. Analysts said rising fertilizer and energy costs linked to conflict in the Middle East have increased production expenses for growers, particularly in Asia. Some farmers are reportedly considering reducing or skipping plantings because rice is a fertilizer-intensive crop. The USDA also warned that lower global production, combined with record consumption and trade demand, could reduce world stockpiles. Wholesale rice prices in Thailand and rice futures in Chicago have already risen sharply in recent weeks.

Monday Watch List

Markets

For reports to begin the week, USDA will release weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT Monday. In the afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT, USDA will release the weekly Crop Progress report. As always, traders and investors will remain in tune to developments in the Middle East as well.

Weather

After a very busy weekend for the Central U.S., yet one more storm system will move from the Central Plains into the Midwest on Monday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms from Sunday continue ahead of this system through the Midwest, but additional showers and thunderstorms should erupt across the Plains and into the western Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. A moderate risk of severe weather has been posted by the Storm Prediction Center over Kansas and extreme southeastern Nebraska for the enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Heavy rain from the weekend and Monday could result in additional areas of flooding for the middle of the country. Cold air moving down behind the system is causing rain to change to snow in Wyoming with some accumulations there.

Ag Groups Applaud House Vote on E15 Sales

Farm and biofuel groups praised the U.S. House after lawmakers approved legislation allowing the nationwide year-round sale of E15 gasoline, a move supporters say would boost corn demand, lower fuel costs and strengthen rural economies. The House voted 218-203 on Wednesday to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act, which would permanently allow sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol during summer months. Current federal rules restrict E15 sales in many states during the summer because of air-quality regulations. The American Farm Bureau Federation called the measure a “win-win” for farmers and consumers. President Zippy Duvall said expanded E15 access would increase corn demand and provide drivers with fuel often priced below standard gasoline. The National Farmers Union,  American Coalition for Ethanol and other biofuel groups also applauded the bipartisan vote, arguing permanent E15 sales would provide more certainty for ethanol producers and rural communities. Supporters said the bill could help farmers facing weak commodity prices and rising production costs while offering consumers another lower-cost fuel option. The legislation now moves to the Senate.

Farm Bill Debate Intensifies as Congress Eyes 2026 Legislation

Congressional negotiations over the next farm bill intensified this week as lawmakers continued debating funding priorities, nutrition programs and conservation spending tied to the legislation that shapes U.S. agriculture policy. House and Senate agriculture leaders are working to advance a new multiyear farm bill after repeated delays in recent years. Discussions have focused heavily on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program funding, crop insurance protections and conservation initiatives important to farmers and ranchers. Agricultural organizations remain divided on several provisions, including pesticide liability protections and proposed changes to commodity support programs. Farm groups have urged lawmakers to complete the legislation this year amid ongoing uncertainty in commodity markets, high input costs and global trade concerns. Supporters say the bill is critical to providing stability for producers facing weather challenges and fluctuating prices, while critics argue disagreements over spending priorities could slow progress. The current farm bill framework has been extended several times as negotiations continue.

USDA Soybean Oil Export Outlook Raises Concerns About Market Volatility

New USDA projections for soybean oil exports are increasing concerns about price volatility in agricultural markets as demand tied to renewable fuels continues reshaping the soybean sector. Analysts with the University of Illinois’ farmdoc daily said the government’s first 2026-27 soybean outlook projects stronger domestic soybean crushing and growing soybean oil exports, while overall soybean ending stocks are expected to remain tighter than many traders anticipated. The report said increased reliance on soybean oil for renewable diesel and biofuel production could disconnect U.S. soybean oil prices from broader global vegetable oil markets, potentially leading to sharper swings in prices. Researchers noted export projections remain uncertain because global demand, biofuel policy and trade conditions could change quickly. Market analysts said volatility in soybean oil prices could eventually influence soybean acreage decisions, processing margins and farm profitability across major soybean-producing states.

U.S. Wheat Associates Welcomes USDA Announcement of Award for Food for Peace Program

U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) welcomes the announcement of the award of 20,000 metric tons (MT) for emergency feeding programs under the USDA administration of the Food for Peace program. “We appreciate the efforts of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg and their teams for their hard work to bring this first award of wheat under the USDA’s administration of the Food for Peace program,” said Dalton Henry, USW vice president of communications and policy. The wheat is destined for emergency feeding programs in East Africa, which will be delivered by the World Food Program. Shipment is expected to take place later this summer along with other commodities, including rice and sorghum. “This is the first of hopefully many shipments under the USDA’s administration of the Food for Peace program,” said Amanda Hoey, chief executive officer of the Oregon Wheat Commission and chair of the USW Food Aid Working Group. 

USDA Data Shows Record Corn, Soybean Yields in 2025

Newly released USDA county yield estimates show U.S. corn and soybean production reached record levels in 2025, with the highest yields concentrated across the central Corn Belt. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported the national average corn yield reached a record 186.5 bushels per acre last year, while soybean yields averaged a record 53 bushels per acre, according to an analysis published by farmdoc daily at the University of Illinois. Winter wheat yields averaged 54.9 bushels per acre, the second-highest on record. Illinois led many yield categories, with several counties topping 240 bushels per acre for corn and more than 73 bushels per acre for soybeans. Yields generally remained strongest across Illinois, Iowa, Indiana and parts of Nebraska and Minnesota. Researchers also noted a continued decline in the number of counties reporting USDA yield estimates, largely tied to lower farmer survey participation rates. 

Senate Democrats Question USDA Research Reorganization Plans

Sen. Amy Klobuchar and 23 other senators are raising concerns about the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s planned reorganization of its Research, Education and Economics mission area, saying the changes could disrupt agricultural research and economic reporting. In a letter sent to USDA officials, the lawmakers said they support efforts to improve efficiency but warned the restructuring could weaken the department’s research agencies and limit their ability to provide scientific innovation and economic data to farmers and rural communities. The senators asked USDA to provide details about steps being taken to reduce disruptions for farmers, ranchers and agricultural researchers during the transition. They also urged the department to follow Government Accountability Office recommendations related to federal agency reorganizations. The Research, Education and Economics division oversees several USDA agencies, including the Economic Research Service and the National Agricultural Statistics Service, which provide data and research widely used throughout the agriculture industry. The letter was signed by Democratic senators and two independents who caucus with Democrats.

Friday Watch List

Markets

On Friday, traders will continue to watch for details emerging from the second day of meetings between President Trump and President Xi in Beijing. After the close, CFTC will wrap up the week with the Commitments of Traders report, updating positions as of Tuesday, May 12.

Weather

A stalling front is the focal point for some scattered showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the country on Friday. From southwest Kansas through Wisconsin, we should see thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon and evening. A risk of strong winds and hail are expected. Breezy winds in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies continue, though weaker than the past couple of days. Rain will change to snow for some in the northern Canadian Prairies.

Soybean Markets Watching Trump/Xi Meeting for Possible Export Implications

Soybean markets are closely watching this week’s meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping for signs of renewed agricultural trade between the two countries. Analysts say the talks could lead to additional Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, corn and sorghum, though expectations remain tempered because China has increasingly relied on lower-priced Brazilian soybeans in recent years. Market observers said any large export commitments could support soybean futures, which recently climbed to two-year highs. Farm groups and grain traders are also watching for progress on broader trade issues that could affect agricultural exports. Reuters reported discussions may include grain, meat and ethanol products as both nations seek to preserve a fragile trade truce. However, analysts cautioned that previous high-level meetings have not always produced long-term agreements. China remains one of the largest overseas markets for U.S. agricultural products.

Possible Strike at Colorado Cargill Plant

Contract negotiations at a Cargill beef processing plant in Fort Morgan, Colorado, have fueled speculation of a possible worker strike, though the company has not confirmed any labor action. Cargill said only that discussions with employees are ongoing, while the local union has not responded to requests for comment. Industry analysts said the reports have not disrupted cattle markets, noting the facility has sufficient shackle capacity and there is no clear indication of either a formal strike or a wildcat walkout. The Fort Morgan beef plant is closed this week as negotiations continue, according to sources familiar with the talks. Some reports also pointed to a related legal dispute, though few details were immediately available. Separately, union workers at Denver Processing, a subsidiary of JBS, voted to authorize an unfair labor practice strike. The authorization does not automatically trigger a walkout but allows union leaders to call one if bargaining efforts fail. 

House Dems Planning Strategy to Undo Trump Environmental Policy

House Democrats are preparing a broad oversight campaign targeting the Trump Administration’s energy and environmental policies if they regain control of the chamber in the midterm elections. Lawmakers on the House Natural Resources Committee said they plan to investigate potential conflicts of interest, industry ties and administration dealings involving public lands, energy development and environmental policy. Rep. Jared Huffman, the committee’s top Democrat, said lawmakers already have multiple investigations “teed up” and would pursue subpoenas and testimony requests if Democrats reclaim the majority. E&E News reports Democrats and allied groups, including the League of Conservation Voters, have been reviewing administration actions involving offshore wind leases, California water policy and energy projects. Republicans and administration officials have denied wrongdoing. An Interior Department spokesperson said associate deputy secretary Karen Budd-Falen has complied with all ethics requirements amid Democratic scrutiny of her ranching interests and public lands policies.

Senate Prepares to Take Up House-Passed Farm Bill

Senate lawmakers are beginning work on the next phase of the 2026 farm bill after the House approved its version last week, setting up negotiations over commodity programs, conservation funding and livestock regulations. Farm groups are closely watching Senate discussions involving crop insurance, reference prices and livestock provisions tied to California’s Proposition 12 animal housing law. Ethanol organizations are also pushing lawmakers to include permanent nationwide access to E15 gasoline sales. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson said lawmakers hope to move quickly on final negotiations, though differences remain between Republicans and Democrats over nutrition spending and climate-related conservation programs. Agricultural economists say the bill comes as farmers continue facing lower commodity prices and elevated input costs. Commodity groups warned delays in passing a final package could create uncertainty for producers making planting and marketing decisions this year.

High Fuel, Input Costs Continue to Pressure Farmers

Rising diesel fuel and fertilizer prices are increasing financial pressure on U.S. farmers during the peak of spring planting season, according to analysts and farm groups. Energy costs have climbed in recent weeks amid global trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding tariffs and overseas shipping routes. Higher natural gas prices have also increased fertilizer production costs, especially for nitrogen products heavily used by corn growers. Agricultural economists say many row-crop producers are already operating with thin profit margins after several months of lower corn and soybean prices. Diesel prices are affecting everything from fieldwork to grain transportation, adding expenses across the supply chain. The American Farm Bureau Federation said elevated input costs continue to limit profitability for many farms despite improved planting conditions in parts of the Midwest. Market analysts said producers may reduce fertilizer applications or delay equipment purchases if costs remain elevated through the growing season.

Renewable Diesel Demand Driving Soybean Processing Growth

Strong demand for renewable diesel is continuing to drive soybean processing growth across the United States, boosting demand for soy oil used in biofuel production. Industry analysts say expanding renewable fuel mandates and favorable processing margins have encouraged crushers to increase capacity as energy companies seek additional feedstocks for low-carbon diesel fuel. Several new soybean processing facilities are expected to begin operations this year across the Midwest. The increased crush demand has helped support soybean markets despite uncertainty surrounding export competition and global grain supplies. Agricultural economists say domestic demand from biofuel producers is becoming a larger factor in soybean pricing. Biofuel groups and soybean organizations continue to support federal renewable fuel policies, arguing they create new markets for farmers and rural communities. Some livestock groups, however, have raised concerns that higher soybean oil demand could contribute to increased feed costs.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

USDA will lead off Thursday with the weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Later in the afternoon at 2 p.m. CDT, ERS will release a number of monthly commodity outlooks, following up USDA's forecasts from Tuesday's WASDE.

Weather

A strong storm system is building in the Canadian Prairies on Thursday where areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms may produce some severe weather. Strong winds are found there and into the Northern Plains as well for Thursday. The cold front to the system will push eastward through the Plains and Upper Midwest, sparking some thunderstorms. A few of those could be severe over the Central Plains.

May WASDE Indicates Large Corn and Soybean Stocks, Tightens Wheat Outlook

USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report offered the first official look at the 2026-27 crop year, projecting large corn and soybean supplies while tightening the outlook for wheat production. USDA forecast U.S. corn production at about 16 billion bushels, supported by expanded acreage and trendline yields, while soybean production was projected near 4.44 billion bushels. Analysts said the outlook points to ample supplies if favorable growing conditions continue through the summer. The report reduced the wheat production outlook to roughly 1.56 billion bushels because of drought conditions across parts of the western Plains. Wheat futures climbed following the report as traders reacted to tighter supplies and ongoing weather concerns. USDA’s projections are expected to shape grain marketing and risk-management decisions as farmers continue spring planting across much of the Corn Belt.

Beef Import Debate Intensifies as Prices Rise

The Trump administration has delayed plans to reduce tariffs on imported beef after pushback from cattle producers and lawmakers concerned about impacts on U.S. ranchers. The Wall Street Journal reports officials had considered increasing beef imports to help ease record-high retail beef prices. Ranch groups warned expanded imports from countries such as Brazil and Argentina could hurt domestic producers already facing high feed and fuel costs. Financial Times reports the White House is now focusing more heavily on boosting domestic beef production rather than immediately lowering import barriers. The U.S. cattle herd remains near multi-decade lows following years of drought and elevated production expenses. Analysts say shrinking cattle supplies have contributed to rising grocery store prices for steaks and ground beef. The New York Post reported administration officials are also reviewing financing assistance and possible regulatory changes aimed at supporting cattle producers and stabilizing beef supplies.

Florida Blueberry Growers Take 75% Loss from Freeze

Florida blueberry growers are reporting severe crop losses after a series of freezes in late January and early February damaged plants across central and northern parts of the state, industry officials said. Many farms lost between two-thirds and 75% of their crop, far worse than early estimates. Austin Sigety of Frogmore Fresh told Fresh Plaza his farm’s harvest began nearly two months later than normal after freezing temperatures destroyed early fruit. Growers said temperatures dropped as low as 18 degrees Fahrenheit, overwhelming traditional frost-protection systems. The lighter crop has tightened domestic blueberry supplies and kept prices firm through much of the Florida season. Retailers supplemented inventories with imports from Peru and Mexico before Georgia’s harvest began increasing supplies. Despite the losses, growers continued harvesting to maintain relationships with retailers and preserve market share ahead of next season, which many hope will return to normal.

Farm Bill Debate Continues in Washington

Debate over the 2026 farm bill continues in Washington as lawmakers work through differences on commodity programs, conservation funding, crop insurance and biofuel policy. The House Agriculture Committee said the proposed Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026 includes expanded credit access, conservation tools and support for specialty crop producers. Committee leaders say the legislation is designed to address inflation, trade uncertainty and rising production costs. Biofuel groups continue pushing lawmakers to include permanent year-round E15 sales in the legislation, calling it a major priority for corn growers and rural economies. Ethanol Producer Magazine reported renewable fuel organizations believe expanded ethanol access could strengthen demand for corn and increase fuel choices for consumers. Senate negotiations are expected later this spring, with agricultural leaders warning delays could create uncertainty for producers making long-term financial decisions.

USDA Research and Crop Policy Remain Key Focus

Federal agriculture research and crop policy remain major issues as lawmakers continue discussions surrounding the 2026 farm bill and USDA priorities. The USDA Economic Research Service reported ongoing research tied to commodity programs, conservation, crop insurance and rural development will play a major role in shaping future agricultural policy. Agricultural organizations are also closely monitoring USDA reports on farm income, commodity costs and export demand as planting season advances across much of the country. The House Agriculture Committee said lawmakers continue debating funding levels for conservation programs, rural development initiatives and specialty crop programs as negotiations over the next farm bill continue. Farm leaders say research funding and access to credit remain especially important for producers dealing with volatile markets and weather conditions. Agricultural economists warn decisions made during the coming months could significantly influence producer profitability and long-term risk management strategies across the farm sector.

Cinco de Mayo Sets Record Volume Avocado Demand

Record volumes of avocados moved through U.S. markets ahead of Cinco de Mayo this year, driven by strong supplies from Mexico and California and aggressive retail promotions tied to the holiday, industry officials said. Calavo Growers said shipments for the annual celebration likely reached an all-time high as demand for guacamole and avocado-based foods remained strong. Industry groups estimated more than 235 million pounds of Mexican avocados were imported into the United States in the four weeks leading up to Cinco de Mayo, surpassing previous records. Mexican exporters also reported shipments between 105,000 and 110,000 tons for the holiday week alone. Fresh Plaza reports supplies have expanded compared with spring 2025, when tighter inventories pushed prices higher. This year’s heavier volume has helped keep prices more affordable for retailers and consumers, according to growers and distributors. Industry officials expect strong avocado demand to continue through summer promotions tied to Memorial Day, soccer events and the Fourth of July.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Producer Price Index report at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The Energy Information Administration will release the weekly Petroleum Status Report at 9:30 a.m. CDT, including last week's ethanol production in the U.S. At 1 p.m. CDT, USDA will release a few follow-up reports to Tuesday's WASDE, such as updating the Feed Grains database and wheat dataset.

Weather

A small system is moving out of the Midwest and into the Northeast with some showers for Wednesday. The next system is moving through the Pacific Northwest with scattered showers that will move into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains throughout the day. Breezy winds will develop in the Plains ahead of the system, a concern for spreading wildfires.

DOJ Continuing Investigation into Alleged Meatpacking Antitrust Violations

The U.S. Department of Justice is intensifying its investigation into possible antitrust violations in the beef packing industry, prompting renewed calls from ranching groups for greater competition and market transparency. Federal officials said investigators are examining whether consolidation among the nation’s largest meatpackers contributed to inflated beef prices for consumers and reduced prices paid to cattle producers. The four largest beef processors control roughly 85% of the fed cattle market, according to the DOJ. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche encouraged industry insiders to provide information through the department’s whistleblower program, which could award up to 30% of penalties in qualifying cases. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said consolidation has weakened negotiating power for ranchers and increased dependence on a small number of buyers, according to the Oklahoma Farm Report. Ranching groups, including R-CALF USA, welcomed the investigation and urged reforms aimed at strengthening rural economies and protecting independent cattle producers.

Congress Prepares for Fertilizer, E15 Debates

Congress returns this week with major agriculture issues dominating the agenda, including fertilizer costs, biofuel policy and farm economic concerns. The Senate Agriculture Committee is expected to review fertilizer supply challenges as farmers continue facing elevated input prices tied to global supply disruptions and trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, the House is preparing to consider legislation allowing year-round nationwide sales of E15 gasoline blends containing 15% ethanol. Corn growers and ethanol groups have pushed for permanent E15 access for years, arguing the policy would expand domestic fuel supplies and strengthen corn demand. Oil industry groups have raised concerns about fuel infrastructure compatibility and regulatory impacts. Farm organizations also are urging lawmakers to address broader economic pressures, including weak commodity prices and higher operating costs during spring planting season. The debate comes as Congress continues negotiations on a long-delayed farm bill that includes commodity programs, conservation funding and nutrition assistance priorities.

Administration Expands Beef Import Flexibility Amid Tight Cattle Supplies

The Trump administration is moving to increase flexibility for beef imports as U.S. cattle inventories remain near historic lows and retail beef prices continue climbing. Federal officials said the temporary measures are designed to help stabilize consumer prices while domestic cattle producers continue rebuilding herds reduced by years of drought, high feed costs and shrinking pasture conditions. The Wall Street Journal reports the proposal has divided the cattle industry. Some ranching groups warned additional imports could place downward pressure on domestic cattle markets and reduce profits for American producers already dealing with tight margins. Others said expanded imports may help processors and retailers maintain supplies during peak demand periods. The U.S. cattle herd recently fell to its lowest level in decades, contributing to higher beef prices nationwide. Analysts say herd rebuilding could take several years because producers remain cautious about weather conditions and production costs. Consumer demand for beef has remained strong despite higher grocery prices.

76% of USDA Employees Say They Won’t Move to Kansas City

More than three-quarters of USDA researchers affected by planned agency relocations say they do not intend to move, according to a survey conducted by a federal employee union, raising concerns about staffing losses and disruptions to agricultural research programs. The American Federation of Government Employees Local 3403 said 76% of surveyed employees at the Economic Research Service and National Institute of Food and Agriculture indicated they would not relocate under USDA plans to move positions from the Washington area to Kansas City, according to the Federal News Network. Union officials warned the relocations could trigger another “brain drain” similar to a 2019 USDA move in which roughly 85% of affected employees reportedly resigned or retired rather than relocate. The union said staffing losses could slow research, delay grant funding for universities and affect economic analysis relied upon by farmers and policymakers. USDA officials have said decentralizing operations could improve efficiency and place agencies closer to agricultural communities.

Environmental Groups Set to Challenge New Grazing Rules

A growing dispute is emerging over federal grazing policy in the western United States as environmental groups prepare legal challenges against efforts to expand livestock grazing on public lands. The Center for Biological Diversity filed a notice of intent to sue the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of the Interior over the administration’s new Grazing Action Plan, which would reopen and expand grazing allotments across parts of the West. The group argues the plan could violate the Endangered Species Act by threatening wildlife habitat and sensitive ecosystems. Federal agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service, say the proposal is intended to improve grazing access and support ranchers facing drought, rising costs and tight cattle supplies. Ranching organizations, including the Public Lands Council, say grazing is critical to western agricultural economies, according to Beef Magazine. Environmental advocates argue expanded grazing could increase conflicts involving predators, water quality and endangered species protections on federally managed lands.

Rosenbusch to Testify to Senate Committee on Fertilizer Supplies

The Fertilizer Institute president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch will testify Tuesday before the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry during a hearing titled, “Perspectives on the Fertilizer Industry: Ensuring a Stable and Affordable Supply for American Producers.” Rosenbusch will testify that the U.S. fertilizer industry supports market transparency and continued efforts to provide farmers and policymakers with timely and reliable information about fertilizer markets and supply chains. “Farmers are facing economic pressures and uncertainty across agricultural markets,” said Rosenbusch. “The fertilizer industry is proud to work every day to ensure growers have access to the fertilizers they need, exactly where and when they are needed. Improved data sharing and market visibility can better inform farmer decisions while also strengthening supply chain resiliency.” Rosenbusch’s testimony is set to underscore the highly competitive nature of the U.S. fertilizer industry and the importance of maintaining a strong domestic production base while recognizing the realities of a global marketplace.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday will be a busy day in the markets. First off at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April Consumer Price Index report. At 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports, offering estimates for the upcoming U.S. winter wheat harvest and an early look into fall 2026 crops as well.

Weather

A small system is moving through the Midwest on Tuesday, producing some areas of showers and a few thunderstorms. A few of those may be severe Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, it is breezy in the Northern Plains with dry conditions that may promote wildfires.

DOJ Reaches Meat Price-Fixing Settlement

The U.S. Department of Justice and six states have reached a settlement in their antitrust lawsuit against data company Agri Stats. It’s a move federal officials say could help lower meat prices for consumers. The lawsuit alleged Agri Stats’ detailed weekly pricing and sales reports enabled anti-competitive behavior within the chicken, pork, and turkey industries. Under the settlement, the company will face new limits on the data it can collect and must make information available to meat buyers such as grocery stores and restaurants, not just processors. “This Department of Justice is laser-focused on making everyday life affordable for all Americans,” said Todd Blanche, Acting Attorney General. The agreement, which still requires court approval, includes participation from California, Minnesota, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. Officials say the changes are intended to increase transparency and competition throughout the meat supply chain.

Trade Court Rules Trump Tariff Replacement Illegal

A federal trade court has ruled that President Donald Trump unlawfully used Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a ten percent global tariff after the Supreme Court blocked his broader tariff plan earlier this year. Politico said the U.S. Court of International Trade found the administration’s fallback tariff strategy exceeded presidential authority under the law. The divided three-judge panel blocked the tariffs for Washington state and two companies that challenged the policy, including spice importer Burlap & Barrel and toy maker Basic Fun!. However, the ruling does not immediately halt the tariffs nationwide, meaning most importers will continue paying the duties while the case moves through appeals. Judges Mark Barnett and Claire Kelly wrote that Trump’s tariff proclamation “is invalid, and the tariffs imposed on Plaintiffs are unauthorized by law.” Trade attorney Tim Brightbill called the ruling a “decisive rejection” of the administration’s use of Section 122, though he noted the tariffs will largely remain in effect during the appeals process.

Grain Export Sales Numbers Mixed

U.S. grain export sales were mixed in the latest weekly report from the USDA. Soybean sales fell to their lowest level of the marketing year that began September 1. Soybean sales totaled just 141,900 metric tons in the week ending April 30, down 45 percent from the previous week and 51 percent below the four-week average. China was the top buyer at 66,900 metric tons, followed by Japan and Indonesia.  Corn sales reached 1.36 million metric tons, down 15 percent week-over-week, though exports jumped 28 percent to 2.06 million metric tons. Taiwan, Colombia, and South Korea were among the largest buyers. Wheat sales saw the steepest decline, plunging 65 percent to 78,800 metric tons as cancellations from unknown buyers and Indonesia offset purchases from Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico. Despite weak sales, wheat exports rose 15 percent from the prior week.

USDA Clears Path for Whole Milk in Schools

The National Milk Producers Federation praised a new USDA interim final rule expanding milk options in federal child nutrition programs, allowing schools to offer whole and 2% milk at breakfast and other federally supported meals. The rule implements key portions of the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025, signed into law in January, and restores milk choices removed under federal nutrition standards adopted in 2012. Under the updated policy, schools participating in the School Breakfast Program, Special Milk Program, and Child and Adult Care Food Program may now serve whole and 2% milk alongside existing 1% and fat-free options. “Today’s announcement marks a significant step forward in delivering whole and 2% milk back into schools,” said NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud. “Offering whole and 2% milk in schools helps students meet recommended daily values for many essential nutrients.”

Farm Bureau Selects New Leadership Class Participants

The American Farm Bureau Federation recently announced the members of its 13th Partners in Advocacy Leadership (PAL) class, a program designed to help agricultural leaders strengthen their advocacy and communication skills. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said strong leadership is essential as agriculture faces growing policy challenges. “Effective advocacy at the local, state, and national levels has never been more critical to advancing policies that support agriculture and strengthen rural communities,” Duvall said. The two-year program includes four intensive training modules focused on legislative policymaking, issues management, leadership development, media relations, and social media engagement. Participants gain hands-on experience designed to prepare them to advocate for farmers, ranchers, and rural communities. Members of PAL Class 13 represent Alabama, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Utah. To qualify, applicants must be Farm Bureau members between the ages of 30 and 45 with demonstrated leadership abilities. Program co-sponsors include Farm Credit, Syngenta, John Deere, and Merck Animal Health.

EPA Grant for Farmer-Led Conservation on Working Lands

The Environmental Protection Agency’s Gulf of America Division has announced up to $50 million in new grant funding aimed at improving water quality, habitat restoration, environmental resilience, and environmental education across America’s working lands. The funding is part of the Farmer-to-Farmer grant program, which supports farmer-led and farm-focused organizations operating within the Gulf of America watershed. The agency expects to award 20 to 30 grants, with individual awards ranging from $1.5 million to $2.5 million, each supporting five-year projects. The program focuses on helping farmers reduce nutrient nonpoint source pollution while sharing and scaling innovative conservation practices. It also emphasizes data collection and farmer-to-farmer engagement to test and validate regenerative approaches in real-world agricultural settings. “Farmers are among our nation’s most effective stewards of the land and conservators of our natural resources,” said EPA Region 4 Administrator Kevin McOmber.