Soybean Group Highlights China Purchase Commitment

The American Soybean Association says China’s commitment to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 provides greater market certainty for soybean farmers. The commitment covers 2026, 2027 and 2028 and follows last week’s summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi (Zhee) Jinping. ASA President and Ohio soybean farmer Scott Metzger says China remains an important market for U.S. soybeans. “China’s annual commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans provides critical stability, and we expect those commitments to be fully met,” Metzger said. However, ASA says it is disappointed U.S. soybeans were not included among agricultural products receiving additional tariff relief from China. The group says China’s remaining ten percent retaliatory tariff limits access for private importers. The U.S. and China are scheduled to meet twice more before the current trade truce expires January 10.

U.S. Dairy Welcomes China Tariff Relief Plans

U.S. dairy groups are welcoming plans to include dairy products in tariff reductions under the new U.S.-China Board of Trade. The National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council say the development could improve market access for American dairy exporters, although the tariff relief will not take effect immediately. The two governments say implementation will follow their respective domestic laws and processes. NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud says retaliatory tariffs have put U.S. dairy at a disadvantage in China, and the group wants those tariffs fully removed. U.S. Dairy Export Council President and CEO Krysta Harden says the agreement could give dairy exporters and their customers greater predictability. She also urged the Board of Trade to quickly eliminate remaining retaliatory tariffs. The groups welcomed a two-month extension of the broader U.S.-China tariff truce and say they will continue working to remove trade barriers affecting U.S. dairy exports.

Texas Tech Updates Study Of Foreign Sugar Subsidies

Texas Tech University has released an update to its 2019 report examining government support for sugar industries around the world. The study, authored by Texas Tech’s International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness, examines policies affecting sugar production in 29 countries representing more than 86 percent of global sugar production and 87 percent of exports. The researchers say direct foreign sugar subsidies have nearly doubled since 2005, rising from an average of $770 million to nearly $1.4 billion in 2024. The study also finds every country examined uses import tariffs or quotas to protect its sugar industry. The report says nine countries have ethanol or biofuel blending mandates, while governments play a significant role in setting sugar prices in several countries. The study is intended to provide information for U.S. trade negotiators and lawmakers examining competition in the global sugar market. The researchers say foreign government policies can influence global sugar prices and trade.

Ag Groups Highlight USMCA As North American Talks Continue

U.S., Mexican, and Canadian officials are meeting this week in Calgary, Alberta, as part of the Tri-National Agricultural Accord, with agricultural trade and the future of the USMCA among the issues drawing attention. The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA says trade with Canada and Mexico remains important to U.S. agriculture and rural communities. The coalition says agricultural and seafood exports to the two countries generated $149 billion in economic output in the United States in 2024. Coalition spokesperson Bryan Goodman says the Calgary meetings provide an opportunity for the three countries to address disagreements and identify areas for greater cooperation. The coalition supports renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is undergoing a review this year.  Goodman says the group hopes discussions during the agricultural accord will contribute to USMCA’s renewal and benefit producers and consumers across all three countries. The accord brings together officials from the three North American trading partners.

Ibach Nominated to Lead USDA Foreign Agricultural Trade

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is welcoming President Donald Trump’s nomination of Greg Ibach (EYE-baw) to serve as the next Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Ibach, a former Nebraska agriculture director, previously served as USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs during the first Trump administration. The White House formally sent his nomination to the Senate. Ibach would succeed Luke Lindberg, who has been appointed Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Program. Rollins congratulated Lindberg, crediting him with helping expand agricultural markets during his tenure, and said he helped the administration cut the agricultural trade deficit by 51 percent, delivered $177 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, established 20 new trade agreements and frameworks, and secured new agricultural purchase commitments. Rollins called Ibach a lifelong producer and proven leader who understands American agriculture from the farm gate to the global marketplace. The Senate will consider Ibach’s nomination to lead USDA’s international trade efforts.

U.S. Ban Officially Takes Effect on $1 Billion in Canadian Imports

The United States has begun banning nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian imports, including certain dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles. The restrictions took effect Tuesday and come after Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following new American tariffs on Canadian products. The dairy portion includes whey and other dairy-related products. According to trade policy analyst Jacob Jensen, the banned products accounted for about $967 million in Canadian imports in 2025, with alcoholic beverages representing roughly 87 percent of that total. The restrictions add another layer to an already complicated U.S.-Canada trade relationship. The countries conduct about $880 billion in two-way trade annually. The latest action also comes as officials prepare to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The ongoing trade dispute has raised questions about the future of the North American trade pact.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday is a busy day for reports, beginning with the Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditure Index for August at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Later at 9:30 a.m. CDT, the Energy Information Administration will release the weekly Petroleum Status Report. Finally, at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release both the quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports, giving a look into grain inventories around the U.S. as of September 1.

Weather

A stalling front and tropical remnant low-pressure center are combining to produce areas of heavy rain from the Central and Southern Plains into the southwestern Midwest for Wednesday. Areas of flooding are ongoing and will continue to develop throughout the day.

China, U.S. Agree to $60 Billion in Tariff Cuts, Including Agriculture

The United States and China have agreed to reduce tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods traded between the two countries, including several major U.S. agricultural commodities. Under the U.S.-China Board of Trade, each country recommended $30 billion in non-sensitive goods for more favorable tariff treatment. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the move would improve market access for about 30 percent of U.S. exports to China. Reuters said China’s list includes U.S. corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, vegetable oils, and meals. However, soybeans were excluded from the tariff-cut list. China also plans to reduce tariffs on U.S. fish and seafood, logs, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices. The agreement came during President Donald Trump’s September 24 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington.  The countries also agreed to extend their broader trade truce.

Ethanol Could Open New Market In Marine Shipping

A new report is examining the potential for ethanol to become a low-carbon fuel for ocean-going ships, potentially creating another market for U.S. corn-based ethanol. The National Lab of the Rockies report, “Evaluation of Ethanol Use in Marine Shipping,” examines ethanol's technical, economic, and environmental potential in the maritime sector. Researchers say ethanol's compatibility with existing methanol engine technology, scalability, and environmental characteristics could make it an option for marine fuel. The report estimates the currently operating fleet of methanol dual-fuel ships could consume roughly two billion gallons of ethanol annually under high-substitution scenarios. Ryan LeGrand, president and CEO of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council, says even modest adoption could create billions of gallons of new ethanol demand and provide another long-term market for corn growers. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says the report highlights ethanol's potential to expand beyond traditional transportation markets. The U.S. currently has two million gallons of idle ethanol production.

USDA Data Provides Closer Look At Foreign Farmland Holdings

New USDA data is providing a more detailed look at foreign interests in U.S. agricultural land, amid increased attention to foreign farmland investment. The Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act requires foreign persons to report interests in U.S. agricultural land. USDA's latest report shows 46.3 million acres of agricultural land had a reported foreign interest as of December 31, 2024, up 1.3 million acres from the previous year. The acreage figure includes more than outright foreign ownership. AFIDA also counts qualifying long-term leases, partial ownership interests, and other forms of control. USDA data shows long-term leases account for a substantial share of reported foreign-held acreage. Forestland also represents a large portion of the total, while renewable-energy projects account for much of the acreage associated with foreign-held leases. USDA researchers found foreign leases are much more likely than foreign-owned land to involve renewable energy development. USDA released the 2024 report in January.

Brazil Farmland Advantage Narrows Compared With the U.S.

Brazil's farmland-cost advantage over the United States has narrowed substantially, according to a new comparison from Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. Researchers compared farmland values in Iowa and Mato Grosso, Brazil, two major soybean and corn-producing regions, from 2002 through 2025. Iowa farmland values increased from $2,083 per acre in 2002 to $11,549 in 2025. Mato Grosso values rose from substantially lower levels but reached $11,145 per acre in 2022 before falling to $9,066 in 2025. Over the full period, farmland values increased at an annual compound rate of 7.7 percent in Iowa and 8.7 percent in Mato Grosso. By 2025, Iowa farmland values were 27 percent higher. Researchers say strong farm profits and commodity prices drove land values higher in both countries, while more recent declines in crop prices, rising input costs, and tighter credit have pressured Brazilian producers. The study says high Brazilian land values and interest rates have extended payback periods for farmers.

Red Meat Supplies in Storage Rise Eight Percent Year Over Year

Red meat in storage rose as pork supplies surged, USDA said in a monthly Cold Storage report. Meat in freezers on Aug. 31 rose eight percent from the same date last year to 862.1 million pounds. That was also up one percent month over month. Beef supplies increased by five percent annually, and two percent monthly to 407.1 million pounds as boneless cuts rose six percent year over year and three percent month to month, USDA said. Pork inventories jumped 12 percent from the end of August 2025 but were down one percent on a monthly basis. Ham supplies rose 26 percent from a year earlier and three percent monthly. Stocks of other red meat, including veal and lamb, plunged 15 percent year over year but rose eight percent monthly. Total frozen poultry stockpiles at the end of August, meanwhile, fell four percent annually. Chicken supplies fell five percent yearly while turkey inventories dropped two percent yearly.

FFA Next Gen Conference Highlights Animal Agriculture Careers

The National FFA Organization recently hosted its third Next Gen Conference of the year, bringing 72 FFA members from 23 states to Kansas City for a closer look at careers in animal agriculture. The September 15th through 19th conference brought together high school sophomores, juniors, and seniors for career exploration sessions, industry roundtables, hands-on activities, and tours. Students visited a Smithfield Foods hog production farm, Cargill Pet and Cargill Feed manufacturing facilities, and the American Royal. They also took part in hands-on activities with Cargill, Merck Animal Health, and Agriculture Teacher. National FFA says the conferences are designed to help students picture themselves working in agriculture while connecting them with industry professionals and career opportunities. Ashli Weinrich with National FFA says the conference equips students with knowledge and skills to prepare for future careers in agriculture. The 72 participants were selected from a competitive applicant pool.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey at 9 a.m. CDT, with September Consumer Confidence being released at the same time. There are no major Ag reports scheduled to be released, but as always traders will be in tune to updates regarding the war in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea.

Weather

A cold front is found across the Northern and Central Plains early Tuesday. The front is producing batches of showers and thunderstorms which will grow throughout the day as it drifts southeast, ingesting tropical moisture coming from Hurricane Polo. The hurricane will be crossing over northern Mexico Tuesday on its way into the Central and Southern Plains for Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing areas of heavy rain into the middle of the country.

California Clears Way for E15 Gasoline Sales

California has cleared the way for sales of E15 gasoline, opening the nation’s largest auto market to fuel containing 15% ethanol. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 795, removing the final regulatory barrier to E15 sales. California had been the only state where the higher-ethanol blend could not be sold, according to Reuters. The change could provide a significant new market for U.S. corn and ethanol producers. Aemetis CEO Eric McAfee estimated California could generate about 650 million gallons of additional ethanol demand annually. California officials say E15 could also help reduce gasoline costs. A study by economists at the University of California, Berkeley, and U.S. Naval Academy estimated E15 could reduce prices by as much as 20 cents per gallon and save California motorists up to $2.7 billion annually. Congress is separately considering legislation allowing year-round E15 sales nationwide.

Tighter Canadian Supplies Push Oat Futures Above $4

Oat futures have climbed nearly $1 per bushel during the third quarter as shrinking Canadian production and tight U.S. supplies support prices. Farm Progress reports oat futures recently broke above $4 per bushel for the first time in two years. The rally comes as Canada, a key supplier to the United States, faces a sharply smaller crop. Statistics Canada estimates 2026 oat production at about 3 million metric tons, down 22.7% from last year. Harvested acreage is projected to fall nearly 20%, while yields are expected to decline 3.5%. The United States remains a net oat importer. Farm Progress says USDA projects U.S. production at 68 million bushels, compared with imports of 72 million bushels and domestic consumption of 138 million bushels. Ending stocks are estimated at 32 million bushels. Tighter North American supplies could continue supporting prices into 2027.

U.S.-China Summit Leaves Key Agricultural Trade Issues Unresolved

U.S. farmers are awaiting more details on agricultural trade after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded talks Thursday without announcing a broader trade agreement. Reuters reports the countries extended their existing trade truce by two months, giving negotiators additional time to address tariffs, agricultural purchases and other disputes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is meeting an earlier commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually but is behind on a pledge to buy $17 billion in other U.S. agricultural products. China has yet to purchase U.S. corn for the current marketing year, while sorghum purchases have lagged expectations, according to Reuters. Farm groups are seeking stronger purchase commitments and reduced Chinese tariffs on American agricultural products. The trade truce now runs through Jan. 10 as negotiations toward a broader agreement continue.

Rain-Delayed Soybean Harvest Leaves Midwest Processors Scrambling for Supplies

Persistent rain across parts of the Midwest is delaying the soybean harvest, tightening supplies and forcing processors to offer large premiums for immediate deliveries. Reuters reports some soybean crushing plants have reduced production as old-crop supplies dwindle and new-crop beans remain unavailable. USDA projects processors will crush a record 2.78 billion bushels during the current marketing year. Cargill offered $1 per bushel above November futures for immediate soybean deliveries to its Sioux City, Iowa, facility Thursday, producing a cash price of $14.17½ per bushel. Other processors in Iowa and Minnesota also offered short-term premiums. Wet fields have prevented many farmers from harvesting despite attractive prices. Excessive rainfall has also slowed crop dry-down and maturity in portions of the Midwest. The shortage has affected soymeal markets, with October futures reaching a contract high Thursday as processors struggled to secure enough soybeans.

Cattle Futures Fall as Meatpacking Disruptions Slow U.S. Slaughter

Cattle futures declined Thursday as workforce disruptions at meatpacking plants contributed to a sharp drop in U.S. cattle slaughter. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated Thursday’s slaughter at 90,000 head, down from 107,000 a week earlier, Reuters reported. Industry representatives said increased immigration enforcement has kept some workers away from beef plants in Dodge City and Liberal, Kansas, delaying cattle shipments to processing facilities. The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and Texas Cattle Feeders Association said enforcement activity was having a significant effect on agricultural workers and warned that sudden workforce disruptions could affect animal welfare and beef supply-chain operations. Chicago Mercantile Exchange December live cattle futures fell 1.25 cents to $2.221 per pound Thursday. October feeder cattle dropped 1.575 cents to $3.3175 per pound. Industry officials said processing slowdowns could create cattle backlogs if labor disruptions continue.

Foreign Interests Hold 46.3 Million Acres of U.S. Agricultural Land

Foreign interests held 46.3 million acres of U.S. agricultural land at the end of 2024, representing about 3.6% of privately held agricultural land nationwide, according to USDA data analyzed by University of Illinois researchers. Farmdoc Daily reports the total includes more than traditional farmland ownership. Federal reporting requirements also cover certain long-term leases, including arrangements commonly used for wind and solar energy projects. Nearly half of reported foreign-held acreage is forestland, while cropland accounts for 29% and pasture and other agricultural land represent about 22%, USDA reported. Canadian interests account for the largest share of foreign-held agricultural acreage, driven largely by forestland holdings. Farmdoc researchers noted that foreign holdings have increased in recent years but remain a relatively small portion of privately owned U.S. agricultural land. The University of Illinois’ TIAA Center for Farmland Research has developed an interactive county-level map allowing users to examine foreign holdings by country, location and land use.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly export inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT, with data for the week ending September 24. Ater the close, the weekly Crop Progress report will be out at 3 p.m. CDT, offering a look at harvest pace around the U.S. with wet conditions noted across much of the U.S. grain belt through September.

Weather

A front is moving through the Northern Plains on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Dakotas, which should spread into parts of Minnesota and Nebraska, especially overnight.

U.S. and China Extend Trade Truce

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Donald Trump in Washington this week after U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to extend their trade truce through Jan. 10. According to The Associated Press, the extension maintains a pause on new tariffs and trade restrictions while giving both leaders more time to negotiate at upcoming international meetings. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some Chinese commitments remain unmet, although China has been a strong buyer of U.S. soybeans in 2026, while lagging in other agricultural purchases. U.S. farmers and commodity groups are urging both countries to reach a more stable, enforceable agreement that improves market access and reduces tariffs on American farm products. Leaders from the Iowa Corn Growers Association, U.S. Soybean Export Council, and American Soybean Association say farmers need greater certainty and predictability in trade with China, as reported by Agri-Pulse. However, analysts told Reuters that a major new agricultural deal appears unlikely.

Environmental Group Sues EPA for Dicamba Records

The Center for Biological Diversity filed a federal lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the National Agricultural Law Center. The suit claims the EPA failed to release records the group requested under the Freedom of Information Act about its decision to allow over-the-top use of the herbicide dicamba on dicamba-resistant soybeans and cotton during the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons. Dicamba, a herbicide prone to volatilization and off-target drift, was approved for over-the-top application on dicamba-resistant crops in 2016. Since then, federal courts have twice vacated EPA approvals for those uses, most recently in 2024. Despite those rulings, EPA announced in February that it would once again permit over-the-top dicamba applications for the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons. Before that decision, the Center for Biological Diversity submitted multiple FOIA requests seeking documents related to dicamba and EPA’s Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention. The lawsuit claims EPA improperly withheld records and asks the court to compel the agency to release the requested documents.

DMI Board Selects New President and CEO to Lead Checkoff

Dairy Management Inc. has named Corey Scott as its next president and CEO. Scott will become the third leader in the organization’s history, succeeding Barbara O’Brien, who will retire following the 2026 Joint Annual Meeting in October. Scott currently serves as president and CEO of Midwest Dairy, where she oversees dairy checkoff programs across a 10-state region. She previously held leadership roles with Athian and Land O’Lakes. In her new role with DMI, she will lead more than 150 employees on behalf of more than 23,000 dairy farmers and dairy importers, while also serving as president and CEO of the Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy. “America's dairy farmers have built one of the most respected and successful checkoff organizations in agriculture, and I am honored by the opportunity to serve them,” Scott said. “The work of the dairy checkoff remains critical to growing dairy demand, connecting with today’s consumers and creating new opportunities for the next generation of farmers and importers.” O’Brien is retiring after a 25-year career with DMI.

NFU Opposes Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern Rail Merger

National Farmers Union is opposing the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, urging the Surface Transportation Board to reject the deal. NFU argues the merger would give a single railroad control of nearly half of U.S. rail traffic and further reduce competition in an already consolidated industry. “History has shown us that when railroads consolidate, family farmers pay the price,” said NFU President Rob Larew. “Decades of mergers have left farmers with fewer options, higher rates, and less reliable service.” NFU says farmers are already facing financial pressure from high input costs, uncertain trade policies, and rising transportation expenses. The organization says less rail competition could lead to higher shipping rates and poorer service for agricultural shippers. As part of its policy priorities, NFU supports stronger Surface Transportation Board oversight, enforcement of antitrust laws to prevent additional rail mergers, and competition.

Sorghum Celebrates Outstanding Achievement Awardees

National Sorghum Producers presented Dr. Scott Bean and Dr. Brent Bean with the Outstanding Achievement Award in Sorghum Improvement. Scott Bean has spent three decades advancing the industry’s knowledge of sorghum proteins and how they can evolve in processing. His work has connected scientific research to real-world applications, giving breeders and processors better tools to evaluate sorghum. “Much of Scott’s research focused on sorghum proteins and how they change during processing. He helped explain how starch influences food quality, digestibility, and fermentation,” NSP CEO Tim Lust said. “That science supports use in many different areas, especially in the gluten-free foods industry.” Brent Bean spent four decades turning agronomic research into practical solutions for farmers. His work guided growers through crises, especially during the 2013 sugarcane aphid outbreak. “When I look back at Dr. Bean’s career… this continues to be a passion of his today: talking about growth stages, heat units, and what it really looks like from a crop standpoint,” Lust said.

Wheat Harvest Nears Finish with Strong Quality

Harvest of the 2026 hard red spring and northern durum wheat crops is nearing completion, with only a limited number of fields remaining in northern growing regions. The latest Harvest Report from U.S. Wheat Associations says current samples indicate generally strong quality. The hard red spring harvest is 95% complete in North Dakota and Montana. Average protein is 14.7%, above the five-year average. However, test weight and kernel size are slightly below average due to growing season stress in some areas. Northern durum harvest is 95% complete in Montana and 87% complete in North Dakota. Protein levels remain above last year and the five-year average. Recent rainfall affected color and vitreous kernel levels in some areas, but overall quality remains solid. Meanwhile, USDA reports about 20% of the 2027/28 winter wheat crop has been planted, and 5% has emerged.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday looks to be a quiet end to the week for reports, USDA has a series of updates being released at 2 p.m. CDT, such as the monthly Cold Storage report as well as the monthly Poultry Slaughter report. Afterwards at 2:30 p.m. CDT, CFTC will release the Commitments of Traders report, wrapping up the week with a look into trader positions as of Tuesday, September 22.

Weather

A zone of showers continues to build across the South-Central U.S. from New Mexico up into Iowa on Friday morning. This zone will continue to be active throughout most of the day, creating some areas of heavy rain and potential for localized flooding. A system will also be moving from the Pacific Northwest into the Canadian Prairies with strong winds, but minimal precipitation. 

Trump Administration Weighs Diesel Export Ban

Record-high diesel prices are pressuring farmers heading into harvest, and the Trump administration is considering whether restricting diesel exports could provide relief. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says officials are examining whether a full or partial export ban is feasible. Reuters added that President Donald Trump has called for stopping some diesel exports. AAA data put the national average diesel price at more than six dollars and fifty cents a gallon this week, up sharply from a year ago. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley and Representative Ashley Hinson are among lawmakers calling for an export ban, saying high fuel costs are hurting farmers.  But energy analysts warn the impact may not last. They say limiting exports could cause refiners to cut production, potentially tightening supplies and pushing prices higher later. The American Petroleum Institute also opposes an export ban. The Institute said restricting diesel exports would wreak havoc on markets at home and abroad. 

High Diesel Prices Could Persist Into 2027

Farmers could be facing elevated diesel prices well into 2027, adding another challenge for producers already struggling with tight margins. Gregg Ibendahl (EYE-ben-dahl), a farm management specialist with Kansas State University Extension, says soaring crude oil prices, limited refining capacity, and disruptions to global fuel supplies are keeping diesel prices high. He says international conflicts could keep prices in the six-to-seven-dollar-per-gallon range through next year or longer. Ibendahl says resolving global tensions and restoring normal international fuel shipments would be the most effective way to address pump prices. The Kansas Reflector said even under a best-case scenario, it could take months for markets to adjust. “Even in a best-case scenario, where the war in Ukraine winds down quickly, and shipments through the Gulf normalize, it could easily take six months for the market to adjust,” Ibendahl said. He said returning to earlier price levels could take up to two years.

ASTA Reminds Farmers About Treated Seed Safety During Harvest

As harvest gets underway across the country, the American Seed Trade Association is reminding farmers to take precautions to keep treated seed out of the grain supply. Seed treatments help protect seeds and seedlings from early-season insects and diseases, supporting stronger stands, healthier plants, and improved yields. But ASTA says proper handling is important throughout the seed’s life cycle, including removing treated seed from containers and equipment used to handle harvested grain. Andy LaVigne (lah-VEEN), ASTA president and CEO, says treated seed can be an important investment in crop production when handled responsibly. “Strong harvests are built long before the combine ever enters the field,” LaVigne said. “When used and handled responsibly, treated seeds are one of the most effective, economical tools a farmer has to protect yield from the ground up.” ASTA and other groups offer educational resources covering the treatment, handling, transportation, and planting of treated seed.

Ethanol Production Falls To Four-Month Low

U.S. ethanol production fell sharply last week, while inventories also tightened, according to Energy Information Administration data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. For the week ending September 18, ethanol production dropped 6.5 percent to 1.03 million barrels per day, or about 43.2 million gallons daily. That was the lowest weekly production rate since early May, although output remained slightly above year-ago levels and 7.2 percent above the five-year average. Ethanol stocks declined 2.1 percent to 24.7 million barrels, their lowest level in seven weeks. Inventories remained above both last year and the five-year average. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market edged higher but remained below year-ago and five-year-average levels. Meanwhile, ethanol exports fell 24.2 percent to 122,000 barrels per day. Refiner and blender ethanol inputs also declined, reaching their lowest level in ten weeks.

Airbnb Offers Grants To Help Farmers Expand Into Agritourism

Farmers interested in agritourism will have a new source of financial assistance through a partnership between Airbnb and American Farmland Trust. The groups are launching a grant program designed to help farmers prepare their properties for overnight guests or launch agritourism experiences. Grants will range up to $10,000 and are available to farmers across the country. Eligible projects could include renovating farm properties for guests or developing activities such as apple picking, wine tasting, farm-to-table dinners, and agricultural workshops. Airbnb and American Farmland Trust will also offer webinars covering how farmers can create listings or experiences, welcome their first guests, and build a long-term agritourism business. Airbnb says the additional income can help farmers remain on their land during difficult seasons. The partnership comes as farmers face rising input costs, unpredictable weather, and volatile commodity markets, creating greater interest in alternative sources of farm income.

Compeer Financial Awards $446,000 In Ag Education Grants

Nearly 70 middle and high schools across the Midwest are receiving more than $446,000 in grants from Compeer Financial to strengthen agricultural education programs. The Next A.C.R.E. grants awarded up to $7,500 to each recipient, with 21 schools in Illinois, 21 in Minnesota, and 27 in Wisconsin receiving funding. The money will support equipment, resources, and improvements for hands-on learning, including greenhouses, shops, and livestock barns. Several schools also plan to add emerging technologies like virtual welding, CNC plasma equipment, precision ag sensors, and veterinary and livestock simulators. Karen Schieler, manager of Compeer Giving at Compeer Financial, says keeping agricultural education current is important as technology continues to reshape the industry. “We hope this funding inspires students to pursue a career in agriculture where they can make a lasting impact on their local communities and the world,” Schieler said. Compeer Financial plans to offer the Next A.C.R.E. grant program again in 2027.

Belarus Potash Proposal Raises Questions About Supply And Cost

The Trump administration’s proposal to purchase potash from Belarus (BELL-ah-roos) is raising questions about the cost and logistics of supplying U.S. farmers. President Donald Trump said Monday the United States is working on a “massive deal” to buy Belarusian potash at a price substantially below what the U.S. currently pays Canada. Canada supplies roughly 80 percent of U.S. potash imports. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe questioned whether Belarusian potash could actually be cheaper, noting Belarus is landlocked, and shipments would need to move through Russia before reaching the United States. Belarus has also faced sanctions and lost its main export route through Lithuania, adding to transportation challenges. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (loo-kah-SHEN-koh) has said his country resumed potash sales to the United States after Washington eased sanctions on Belarusian producers. However, it remains unclear how significantly Belarus could increase shipments to the U.S. For farmers, the proposal could provide another potential source of a key fertilizer nutrient.

Farmers Differ On Benefits Of Artificial Intelligence

Farmers in the United States and Argentina have sharply different views about the benefits of artificial intelligence and other data-driven tools in agriculture. A recent Purdue University survey found 23 percent of U.S. producers identified increased production as the main benefit of AI. In comparison, 14 percent cited reduced labor and 11 percent pointed to reduced risk or uncertainty. More than half, 52 percent, said they saw no meaningful benefit for their operation. Argentine farmers were more positive. Increased production accounted for 37 percent of responses, followed by reduced risk or uncertainty at 28 percent, and reduced labor at 14 percent. Just 21 percent reported no meaningful benefit. The researchers say differences in survey design mean the comparison should be viewed cautiously. They also note that U.S. farmers may question whether AI recommendations are practical to follow, with 63 percent saying recommendations would sometimes be difficult to implement.

Financial Pressure Persists For Corn And Soybean Farmers

A new survey of corn and soybean farmers finds financial pressure remains high despite recent improvements in commodity prices. The National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association report nearly two-thirds of growers are moderately or very concerned about the farm economy. Forty-six percent say they are more concerned about their farm financial situation than they were a year ago. The survey of 1,200 farmers, conducted by Farm Journal, found that recent grain price improvements have not eliminated concerns about high input costs. Growers also say expectations for the 2026 crop leave little room to absorb additional increases in production expenses. NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson says stronger corn prices can improve sentiment, but farm profitability doesn’t reset with one market move or crop year. ASA Chief Economist Scott Gerlt says the results show how little margin for error farmers have, noting the cost of putting a crop in the ground remains high.

Dairy Checkoff Targets Families Through Consumer Campaigns

The dairy checkoff is using two national consumer strategies to keep dairy in front of families during key moments in their daily lives. Dairy Management Incorporated is activating its We Are Family and First 1,000 Days programs through the fall. We Are Family connects with families during meal planning and grocery shopping, while First 1,000 Days focuses on parents during pregnancy and the earliest years of a child’s life. DMI Chair Marilyn Hershey says reaching consumers means being relevant to their lives and meeting them where they are. She says the programs reach parents while they’re planning meals, shopping for their families, or thinking about nutrition for their children. Now in its third year, We Are Family runs through October and reaches consumers through retail-connected media at Walmart, Costco, and, for the first time, Sam’s Club. The strategy uses digital and social media, video and creator content to reach families.

Sugar Alliance Says Outdated Tariffs Hurt U.S. Producers

The American Sugar Alliance says sugar markets are heavily distorted by government subsidies and trade protections, creating challenges for U.S. producers. The group points to Brazil, India, and Thailand, which account for about 70 percent of global sugar exports, and says their government support can encourage production beyond domestic demand. The alliance says surplus sugar can enter world markets at prices below production costs. The group says that has consequences for American sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers. It estimates producers have lost more than $3 billion in potential income over the past two years because of subsidized, over-quota foreign sugar. U.S. sugar imports are managed through tariff-rate quotas, with duties applied above imports over the quota amounts. USDA data confirms the U.S. system includes over-quota tariffs. The alliance says those tariffs have not been updated in 26 years and is calling for them to be modernized to reflect current conditions.

Sorghum Producers Seek China Trade Certainty

The National Sorghum Producers is asking the Trump administration to make U.S. sorghum a priority during next week’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24. In a letter, the group called for sorghum to be included among non-sensitive goods covered by a proposed U.S.-China Board of Trade. It also wants China to eliminate its ten percent retaliatory duty on U.S. sorghum and establish an enforceable annual purchase commitment of five million to seven million metric tons. NSP also urged the administration to ensure Section 301 port fees on Chinese vessels don’t increase shipping costs or disrupt agricultural exports. The group says China has historically purchased close to 80 percent of U.S. sorghum exports, making that market important to growers. NSP Chair Amy France says farmers need purchase commitments that result in actual sales and grain moving from U.S. farms to China.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA will release their weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CDT on Wednesday morning, offering a look into energy fundamentals for the week ending September 18. There are no other major reports scheduled, and traders will continue to watch for geopolitical updates as well as field level reports from the early stages of U.S. harvest.

Weather

Some showers remain possible across Ohio and into the Southeast on Wednesday, but the main focus is on the Plains where a zone of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be growing throughout the day, especially overnight. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, with the short-term focus on New Mexico. 

Farm Production Costs Rise Faster Than Crop Prices Since 2018 Farm Bill

The farm economy has changed significantly since the 2018 farm bill, with production costs rising faster than the prices farmers receive for their crops. A recent study from multiple farm groups shows that the prices-paid index for crop production inputs climbed more than 38 percent from July 2018 through July 2026, while the prices-received index for crop products increased about 24 percent. That widening gap means higher commodity prices don't translate into stronger farm margins. As input costs rise faster than product values, break-even prices increase and producers have less room to absorb market declines or unexpected expenses. Farmers and ranchers have also faced higher interest rates, rising equipment and farmland costs, and increasing farm debt. Higher land values have strengthened balance sheets, but they also raise costs for beginning farmers and those looking to expand. The changes demonstrate the need for a new farm bill that reflects today's higher costs, greater capital requirements, and increased risks.

Cattle on Feed Report Placements Below Expectations

August cattle placements came in well below expectations in the latest Cattle on Feed Report, signaling a potential shift in the cattle market as fewer animals move into feedlots. Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel says August marked the second-straight month of sharply lower placements. Placements fell 9.2 percent from a year ago, while marketings declined 3.3 percent. The September 1 on-feed total was 11.2 million head, seven-tenths of a percent above last year. Peel says the larger on-feed number has been driven by marketings falling faster than placements. He expects that to change in the coming months. “I expect that we’ll get the on-feed total back below a year ago here in the next couple of months and be that way for some period of time,” Peel says. The August placement figure also fell below the entire range of pre-report estimates. Peel says the unexpected decline could be bullish for cattle markets.

China’s U.S. Farm Purchases Remain Slow

China’s purchases of U.S. agricultural products remain well below the pace needed to meet a recently announced trade commitment. The White House said in May that China would purchase at least 17 billion dollars of U.S. farm goods annually through 2028, with the 2026 target prorated. Soybeans were excluded from that figure because China separately pledged to increase soybean purchases, However, Agriculture Department data show China bought just 3.9 billion dollars of U.S. agricultural products, excluding soybeans, during the first seven months of 2026. Bloomberg said that was only slightly more than the same period last year, when purchases were at a six-year low. “As we look back over the last several years, we’ve had inconsistencies,” said National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust. “It’s been really good at times, and it’s been really slow at times. So that’s one of the things that we’re hopeful out of this, that we get that more consistent trade volume.”

California Clears Final Hurdle For E15 Sales

California has cleared the final regulatory hurdle for retailers to offer E15 gasoline, potentially opening a major new market for ethanol. Governor Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 795, the E15 Clean-up Act, into law following unanimous passage by the California Legislature on August 31. The Renewable Fuels Association says the law allows retailers to use existing vapor recovery equipment to dispense E15 if manufacturers provide state agencies with a statement confirming compatibility. RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper says the action removes red tape that had prevented E15 sales. “California drivers are about to experience those same advantages for themselves,” Cooper says, pointing to lower costs, reduced emissions, and improved engine performance. Recent studies cited by RFA estimate E15 could save California drivers at least 2.7 billion dollars annually, or about 200 dollars per household. The law could also significantly expand ethanol demand in the nation’s largest gasoline market.

State Agriculture Leaders Gather For NASDA Annual Meeting

Agriculture leaders from across the country gathered in Maine, for the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture’s 2026 Annual Meeting. Roughly 460 people attended the meeting in person or virtually, where state agriculture commissioners, directors, and secretaries discussed challenges and opportunities facing farmers and ranchers. Maine Agriculture Commissioner and NASDA President Amanda Beal says bringing state leaders together helps them tackle shared challenges and identify opportunities to strengthen agriculture nationwide. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also addressed the group, highlighting USDA’s work with states and announcing the new Stand-Up Program. The initiative will provide up to 50 million dollars to help states join or expand federal-state meat inspection programs. NASDA CEO Ted McKinney highlighted the new Data on Economic and Bankruptcy Trends Project, developed with the National Agricultural Law Center, which provides a more comprehensive look at agricultural bankruptcy trends across the country. Washington Agriculture Director Derek Sandison was elected NASDA president for 2026-27.

Young Farmers Raise Concerns Over Senate Farm Bill

The Senate Agriculture Committee has advanced its version of the 2026 Farm Bill, but the National Young Farmers Coalition says the legislation still falls short on issues affecting the next generation of farmers. The Agricultural Act of 2026 advanced from committee September 16 on a 12-11 party-line vote after the panel resumed business that had stalled in August.  Young Farmers Executive Director Michelle Hughes says the coalition recognizes bipartisan provisions supporting small farms, farmer education, and local food programs, along with improvements to Farm Service Agency financing. However, the group says the bill does not include the New Producer Economic Security Act, which would provide flexible financial support to new and beginning farmers during the early years of establishing a farm business. Young Farmers also says the legislation does not address what it describes as significant barriers to affordable farmland access or restore nutrition funding.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT. In the afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT, the weekly Crop Progress report will be released, with an increased interest in harvest progress given wet conditions across the U.S. grain belt.

Weather

A front that has been stalled across the Corn Belt for most of the last week is starting to push southeast on Monday. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will work down into the Delta and Southeast throughout the day. Showers will continue across the Plains though, too, increasing soil moisture for several areas there.

USDA Cuts Beef Production Forecast as Cattle Slaughter Slows

U.S. beef production is expected to decline this year and next as cattle slaughter remains historically low, according to USDA. The Economic Research Service said Thursday that 2026 beef production is projected at 24.877 billion pounds, down 90 million pounds from its August forecast. The agency lowered its 2027 projection by 145 million pounds to 24.835 billion pounds. Successful Farming reported cattle slaughter during the first eight months of 2026 averaged about 8,000 fewer head per weekday than during the same period last year. USDA said fewer cattle are expected to enter feedlots late this year and early in 2027, slowing marketings during the second half of next year. Higher projected feed costs also are expected to reduce carcass weights. Despite tight cattle supplies, USDA lowered its cattle price forecasts, citing weaker packer demand and reduced processing capacity.

China’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Exports Surge in 2026

China’s exports of sustainable aviation fuel have surged in 2026 as producers capitalize on growing overseas demand for lower-carbon aviation fuels. Chinese customs data show exports of bio-aviation kerosene were valued at nearly $217 million in July, up about 16% from January, according to ChinaData. Monthly shipments have fluctuated considerably, however, as producers navigate changing demand and export conditions. China has expanded its ability to serve overseas markets after approving sustainable aviation fuel export quotas for several producers. S&P Global reported that four approved facilities received combined annual export quotas of about 1.2 million metric tons, positioning China as a significant supplier to markets including Europe. The growth comes as China expands production of fuels made from renewable feedstocks such as used cooking oil. A recent study published in Frontiers said sustainable aviation fuel is expected to become an increasingly important part of China’s aviation emissions-reduction strategy. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week.

Nevada Rancher Elected President of Public Lands Council

Nevada rancher Ron Cerri was elected president of the Public Lands Council as the organization concluded its 58th Annual Meeting on Sept. 17. Cerri, who operates a cow-calf ranch in Orovada, Nevada, has previously served on the council’s board of directors and held leadership roles with the Nevada Cattlemen’s Association, the Nevada State Grazing Board Central Committee and Humboldt County government. In remarks following his election, Cerri said he was honored to lead the organization and pledged to continue advocating for ranchers who graze livestock on federal lands. He credited the council’s recent work with helping provide greater certainty for permit holders and supporting the multiple-use mandate on public lands. The council also named Robbie LeValley of Colorado as vice president and Dr. Dave Daley of California as secretary. Outgoing President Tim Canterbury will remain on the leadership team as immediate past president. The Public Lands Council, founded in 1968, represents ranchers who rely on federal grazing lands across the West.

Mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling Advances With Senate Farm Bill

Mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef moved closer to returning after the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version of the 2026 farm bill. The legislation includes an amendment tied to the American Beef Labeling Act that would restore mandatory country-of-origin labeling, or MCOOL, for beef. The proposal directs the U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Trade Representative to develop a World Trade Organization-compliant labeling system within one year. MCOOL requires retailers to identify where cattle were born, raised and slaughtered. Congress repealed the requirement for beef in 2015 after a WTO ruling opened the United States to retaliatory tariffs. R-CALF USA and the United States Cattlemen’s Association support reinstating MCOOL, arguing consumers should know beef’s origin. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Meat Institute oppose the mandate, saying compliance costs could increase beef prices. The farm bill now awaits further Senate consideration.

USDA Ends Dairy Checkoff Support for ESG Initiatives

USDA has directed the dairy checkoff program to stop funding environmental, social and governance initiatives, saying producer-funded assessments should be used to strengthen markets and promote dairy products rather than support climate-related goals. Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins announced the move Thursday, describing it as a return to the original purpose of commodity checkoff programs. USDA said the action ends dairy checkoff support for ESG-related projects pursued through the Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy, including efforts tied to greenhouse gas reductions and net-zero targets. The department also directed the Agricultural Marketing Service to ensure that research and promotion funds in other commodity checkoff programs are not used to advance ESG mandates. USDA said producers fund the programs through mandatory assessments and that those dollars should be used to expand markets and support agriculture. USDA said the dairy checkoff remains effective in its core mission, citing research from Texas A&M University that found dairy promotion investments generated an estimated $5.93 return for every dollar spent.

Mexican Corn Buyers Tour Midwest to Strengthen U.S. Supply Connections

A Mexican corn buying group toured Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas this month as part of an effort to strengthen relationships with U.S. grain suppliers and expand sourcing opportunities. The U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council said the group represents Mexico’s dairy, cattle, swine, poultry and white corn industries. Participants purchase about 400,000 metric tons, or 15.7 million bushels, of U.S. corn and 80,000 metric tons of distillers dried grains with solubles annually. The delegation met with grower cooperatives in Iowa and Nebraska and visited a Nebraska farm to examine crop conditions. Participants also met with rail representatives to discuss transportation and border logistics. In Kansas, the group toured an agricultural cooperative, grain elevator and farms during corn harvest. Meetings with a rail company and the Federal Grain Inspection Service provided additional information about transportation, grain inspection and quality assurance. The council said additional buyer programs are planned to strengthen U.S.-Mexico grain trade.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT. In the afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT, the weekly Crop Progress report will be released, with an increased interest in harvest progress given wet conditions across the U.S. grain belt.

Weather

A front that has been stalled across the Corn Belt for most of the last week is starting to push southeast on Monday. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will work down into the Delta and Southeast throughout the day. Showers will continue across the Plains though, too, increasing soil moisture for several areas there.

Ag Committee Advances Farm Bill 2.0 to Uncertain Future in Full Senate

The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its 2026 farm bill on a narrow 12-11 party-line vote after Sen. Mitch McConnell’s return enabled action on the measure. The bill includes major agriculture priorities such as year-round E15, mandatory country-of-origin labeling, and the Fertilizer Transparency Act. Democrats objected to a provision requiring states with high SNAP payment error rates to share benefit costs, with The Hill reporting that Chair John Boozman offered a one-year delay, though Democrats argued states need more time. Agri-Pulse reported that Republicans clashed over the absence of “Save Our Bacon” language to override state livestock confinement laws such as California’s Proposition 12, but Boozman declined to reopen amendments. Looking ahead, AgWeb reported that Senate floor action is unlikely before the upcoming election recess. The Washington Sun noted the bill faces a 60-vote Senate threshold and an uncertain path amid expiring farm bill authorities and mounting financial pressures on farmers.

Farm Organizations Welcome Key Measures

Agriculture groups broadly welcomed Senate Agriculture Committee approval of the Agricultural Act of 2026, calling it a key step toward enacting a long-delayed five-year farm bill. The American Sugar Alliance praised committee members for advancing legislation that would provide greater certainty for sugar producers and workers facing economic challenges. Farm Credit Council President and CEO Christy Seyfert said the bill would help farmers weather ongoing uncertainty thanks to provisions that expand credit access, modernize programs, and ease regulatory burdens. The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture also endorsed the legislation, citing the need for a bipartisan farm bill to address rising input costs, weather-related losses, trade challenges, and rural economic stability. National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower praised the inclusion of year-round E15, a key priority for corn growers. He said expanded E15 access would lower fuel costs, increase ethanol demand, and bolster U.S. energy security. All four groups urged Congress to move the bill toward final passage.

Pork Producers Anticipate Proposition 12 Solution in Next Steps

The National Pork Producers Council welcomed progress on the farm bill. Still, it said lawmakers must address California’s Proposition 12 and the growing patchwork of state livestock housing regulations as the legislation advances. NPPC President Rob Brenneman said pork producers need a five-year farm bill that protects them from having to modify production practices to comply with differing state animal welfare laws. The group argues Proposition 12 increases costs and creates uncertainty for the nation’s more than 60,000 pork producers. NPPC also cited concerns from Illinois swine veterinarians Bill Hollis and Aaron Lower, who argued animal welfare cannot be measured solely by space requirements and warned that state-specific mandates could hinder the industry’s ability to adapt to new research and evolving best practices. As Congress moves further into negotiations, NPPC is asking leaders to craft a solution to conflicting state livestock housing laws.

Food for Peace Provision Gets Applause

U.S. Wheat Associates and National Sorghum Producers praised the Senate Agriculture Committee’s farm bill for permanently transferring the Food for Peace program to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. U.S. Wheat Associates said the change would better align the international food aid program with USDA’s agricultural expertise and longstanding role in delivering humanitarian assistance. The group thanked Senate Agriculture Committee leaders and Sen. Jerry Moran, whose bipartisan amendment was included in the bill, noting the move would benefit both people facing hunger and future customers of U.S. agriculture. National Sorghum Producers also highlighted the Food for Peace provision as a major priority, alongside year-round E15 access. NSP Chair Amy France said placing the program permanently at USDA would strengthen ties between American farmers and international food assistance while reinforcing the use of U.S.-grown commodities in global hunger relief efforts.

Farmers Union Members Call for Updated Policy During Legislative Fly-In

During its annual Legislative Fly-In, National Farmers Union intensified its push for farm policy reform. NFU brought nearly 250 farmers to Washington for meetings with lawmakers and federal officials. Participants urged Congress to pass a farm bill that strengthens the farm safety net, expands competition, restores mandatory country-of-origin labeling, and creates new domestic markets for agricultural products. Following Senate Agriculture Committee approval of the Agriculture Act of 2026, NFU President Rob Larew welcomed several provisions, including mandatory country-of-origin labeling and nationwide, year-round E15 access, calling them meaningful victories for family farmers and consumers. However, Larew argued the legislation does not go far enough to address the economic pressures facing agriculture, including rising input costs, market concentration, and an outdated farm safety net. He said many farmers remain in crisis and warned that incremental changes alone will not reverse financial challenges in rural America.

NCBA Responds to Stand-Up Program Announcement

The new Stand-Up Program within the U.S. Department of Agriculture would provide up to $50 million to help states join or expand federal-state meat inspection programs through the Cooperative Interstate Shipping Program. Currently, 30 states participate under the Meat and Poultry Inspection Program, but only 11 of the 30 eligible states participate in the Cooperative Interstate Shipping Program, according to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. NCBA says high regulatory and compliance costs have been barriers to further state participation. Additionally, persistent labor challenges in the processing sector continue to create challenges and uncertainty around efforts to diversify processing options for producers around the country. While the announcement includes funding, structural changes need to happen within the program to help support additional states' participation, NCBA says. The association is looking forward to further details on this new effort in the coming days. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

On Friday, USDA will release the September Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CDT. Shortly after, CFTC will wrap up the week with the weekly Commitments of Traders report, updating positions as of Tuesday, September 15.

Weather

A small system is riding the northern edge of the country on Friday, producing areas of moderate to heavy rain from South Dakota into Wisconsin and Iowa. Other areas of showers will move from the Ohio Valley into the Southeast as well. Temperatures remain hot south of the precipitation while being cooler to the north.

House Passes AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act

The House has passed a bill that would require AM radio access in new vehicles, sending the legislation to the Senate. The House approved the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act by voice vote Tuesday. The measure would direct the Transportation Department to require automakers to include AM receivers in vehicles sold in the United States. The bill has been promoted as a way to preserve radio access, especially during emergencies. National Association of Broadcasters President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt says millions of Americans rely on AM radio for emergency information, news, and connections. Minnesota Broadcasters Association President Wendy Paulson called the House action a victory for broadcasters and AM listeners. The legislation now moves to the Senate, where a companion bill has been awaiting consideration. The Senate version is sponsored by Senators Ted Cruz and Ed Markey, and it has more than 60 cosponsors.

Senate Leader Open to Diesel Export Ban

Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he is open to considering a ban on U.S. diesel exports as prices reach high levels, a proposal that could draw attention from farmers facing higher fuel costs. Thune told reporters that restricting exports could be one way to ease pressure on diesel prices if supply is available. The average reached $6.27 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA, up about 80 cents from a month earlier. Diesel prices have been pushed higher by tight global supplies tied to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with refinery disruptions. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said Monday that an oil or fuel export ban would be unlikely to lower energy prices. Thune says he is willing to explore the idea as officials look for ways to address high fuel costs. Forbes said Thune noted that if the U.S. is exporting domestic supply, it’s worth considering a halt to those shipments to help lower domestic prices. 

FAPRI says Farm Income Expected to Decline in 2026

Farm income is expected to decline in 2026 despite stronger crop prices and higher government payments, according to FAPRI. The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute projects net farm income at $155 billion, down $8 billion from 2025 and below USDA’s September forecast. Crop receipts are expected to increase $16 billion, with corn and soybean receipts accounting for nearly $12 billion of that gain. But higher fuel, fertilizer, and other input costs are expected to outweigh a modest decline in pesticide expenses. Livestock receipts are projected to fall $13 billion, although cattle and calf receipts are expected to rise $9 billion. FAPRI (FAP-ree) projects nearly $13 billion in combined PLC and ARC payments in 2026, up $11 billion from 2025, as higher reference prices and low crop prices boost payments. The report projects record cattle prices continuing, with a cautious turn in the cattle cycle expected in 2027.

USDA Expands Crop Insurance Flexibility for Organic Growers

The USDA is improving crop insurance options for organic cranberry and stone fruit producers, giving them more flexibility beginning with the 2027 crop year. The Risk Management Agency has approved allowing producers to select Enterprise Units or Optional Units by organic farming practice for those crops. RMA Administrator Pat Swanson says the change gives organic and transitional growers the same unit-structure flexibility available to conventional producers. Enterprise Units combine eligible acreage into a single insurance unit, while Optional Units allow producers to divide acreage into smaller units based on practices or land location. That means losses on one unit can be settled without being offset by production from another. The option applies wherever coverage is available. Eligible stone fruit includes apricots, peaches, nectarines, and plums. Producers should contact their crop insurance agent before their sales closing date to discuss coverage and unit options.

FFAR Invests $9.3 Million in Fertilizer Efficiency Research

The Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research is investing $9.3 million to improve nutrient use efficiency across a variety of agricultural systems. The investment, made through the Efficient Fertilizer Consortium, supports 12 research projects involving universities, government organizations, and industry partners. The projects will evaluate fertilizer products and management practices across different soils, cropping systems, and growing conditions. FFAR Scientific Program Manager Dr. Sarah Lyons says growers need science-backed guidance that works under real-world conditions. The research will examine nitrogen and phosphorus enhanced-efficiency fertilizers, along with practices such as cover crops and nutrient stewardship principles. The goal is to provide farmers with information that can support management decisions involving fertilizer use, productivity, and profitability. All consortium-funded projects must follow field trial guidelines developed with input from academia, government, industry, and commodity groups. Cotton Incorporated and other crop organizations are also supporting the research.

Ethanol Production Holds Steady at Above Average

U.S. ethanol production held steady last week while remaining well above year-ago levels and the five-year average, according to Energy Information Administration data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. For the week ending September 11, ethanol output remained at 1.10 million barrels per day, or about 46.16 million gallons daily. Production was 4.2 percent higher than the same week last year and 11.9 percent above the five-year average. Ethanol stocks edged up to 25.2 million barrels, reaching a 19-week high. Inventories were 11.6 percent above year-ago levels and 13.9 percent above the five-year average. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market increased 2.9 percent to 8.80 million barrels per day, while refiner and blender ethanol inputs rose slightly to 911,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, ethanol exports jumped 9.5 percent to 161,000 barrels per day, or about 6.8 million gallons daily.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

On Thursday, USDA will release the weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT, with data as of September 10. In the afternoon, the monthly ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook will be out at 2 p.m. CDT, along with the weekly Livestock Slaughter report at the same time.

Weather

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms from eastern Iowa into western Ohio will continue across these areas through the rest of the morning before trending drier Thursday afternoon. Isolated showers and storms could redevelop across northern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio Thursday evening while a broad area of scattered showers and storms develops across South Dakota and Nebraska.

USDA Seeks Farmer Input on Fertilizer Market

The USDA is asking farmers to share their experiences with fertilizer prices and industry consolidation as federal officials investigate whether the market is operating fairly. Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden made the request during a meeting with farmers in Iowa Friday. He said individual stories could help the Federal Trade Commission investigate potential unfair pricing or anti-competitive practices in the fertilizer industry. Vaden says a large number of farmer experiences would be difficult to dismiss. “Anybody can explain away one thing, you might be able to explain away two or three things, but if we’ve got 100 such stories from farmers all across this country, it becomes very difficult,” Vaden said. The meeting also highlighted efforts to increase competition in fertilizer. Greenfield Nitrogen co-founder Linda Thrasher says her farmer-formed company has spent 12 years trying to develop a regional ammonia facility but has struggled to secure agreements with retailers and cooperatives that fear retaliation from larger providers.

Soybean Export Inspections Rise, But Trail Last Year

U.S. soybean export inspections increased last week, but the pace remains below a year ago, according to USDA. The agency says soybean inspections totaled nearly 673,000 metric tons in the seven days ending September 10. That’s up from about 465,000 tons the previous week, but below the 823,000 tons inspected during the same week last year. Corn inspections fell to 1.53 million metric tons, compared with 1.67 million tons a week earlier. Corn inspections since September 1 are nearly even with last year at 2.17 million tons. Wheat inspections increased to nearly 457,000 metric tons from 431,000 tons the previous week, but remained well below the 758,000 tons inspected during the same week last year. Since the start of the new soybean marketing year, USDA has inspected about 915,000 metric tons for export, down from 1.09 million tons a year earlier. Corn and wheat inspections were also lower compared to last year.

Judge Considers Pause on USDA Relocations

A federal judge is considering a temporary pause on USDA plans to relocate employees across the country, a move that could affect where farmers access agency services. U.S. District Court Judge Vince Chhabria (CHUB-ree-ah) said he may issue an administrative stay to give him more time to review a lawsuit challenging the Agriculture Department’s reorganization. Chhabria said the stay could block USDA from moving forward with relocations until October 2. The court’s next hearing is scheduled for September 29. The case follows a ruling last week allowing USDA to proceed with the relocations while urging plaintiffs to file a new lawsuit if they wanted to continue challenging the plans. Plaintiffs did so this week in Northern California. Chhabria stressed that a stay would not indicate whether the case has merit. He said the issues are complicated and that slowing the schedule would give him more time to review the case properly.

AM Radio Vehicle Bill Heads Toward House Vote This Week

A bill requiring AM radio in new vehicles is headed for a House vote, potentially giving broadcasters a step toward preserving AM access in vehicles. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (ska-LEES) has scheduled the AM Radio for Every Vehicle Act for a standalone vote sometime this week. The National Association of Broadcasters says the bill has 317 House co-sponsors and 61 in the Senate. The legislation would direct the Transportation Department to issue rules requiring AM receivers as standard equipment in vehicles sold in the United States, without an added cost to buyers. NAB President and CEO Curtis LeGeyt says AM radio is a source of news, information, and emergency communications. “Our listeners have made their voices heard loud and clear,” LeGeyt said, calling AM radio an “indispensable lifeline during emergencies.” A similar bill awaits a final vote in the Senate.

Sorghum Growers Get Clearer Path to 45Z Credit

Sorghum growers are getting a clearer path to benefit from the federal 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, potentially creating stronger demand for the crop and its coproducts. The National Sorghum Producers says new IRS guidance and updated Energy Department modeling allow qualifying farm practices to be reflected in a fuel’s carbon-intensity score. Practices including nutrient management, no-till, reduced tillage, and cover crops could help lower that score when properly documented and verified. The guidance also provides transition relief for fuel produced in 2025 and 2026. Farmers still need records supporting fertilizer and manure applications and other information used in calculating carbon intensity. The 45Z credit goes to eligible fuel producers, so it does not automatically mean a payment or premium for every farmer. However, NSP says the program could help growers capture value from low-carbon practices as domestic biofuel demand grows. Distillers sorghum oil is also recognized in several clean-fuel pathways.

U.S. Pork Exports Remain Ahead of Last Year

U.S. pork exports remained ahead of last year’s pace through the first seven months of 2026, despite a slowdown in July. The U.S. Meat Export Federation says exports from January through July reached 1.73 million metric tons, up two percent from a year earlier. Export value increased by one percent to $4.86 billion. Japan was a key driver, with pork exports to that market up 16 percent in volume and 11 percent in value. Central America also reached a new high, moving ahead of Canada as the fifth-largest destination by volume. Colombia remained on a record pace, while demand strengthened in Canada and the Caribbean. The export value averaged $66.06 per head through July, up one percent from a year ago. July shipments were affected in part by restrictions related to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, or PRRS, but those restrictions have now been resolved.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

On Wednesday, StatCan (Canada) will release their model-based principal field crop estimates as of August 2026 at 7:30 a.m. CDT. The Energy Information Administration will release their weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CDT, including last week's ethanol production. There are no other major agricultural reports scheduled, but traders and investors will tune in for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 1 p.m. CDT, which is largely expected to result in a quarter percent rate hike to the Fed's target rate.

Weather

Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms continue across the Corn Belt Wednesday as the stalled front lingers across the area. A few damaging storms are possible across the Ohio Valley. A separate system will be moving through the Northern Plains, Minnesota, and Wisconsin Wednesday and Wednesday evening, leading to spotty light rain showers. Rainfall totals with this system will likely remain below 0.5 inches.

Farmers Press USDA On Fertilizer Prices

More than 170 farmers from 13 states gathered Friday in Iowa for a “Fed Up” fertilizer hearing, pressing federal officials over rising fertilizer costs and concerns about market competition. The hearing focused on major fertilizer companies like Mosaic (mo-ZAY-ick), Nutrien (NOO-tree-ehn), CF Industries, and Koch (Coke). Organizers say fertilizer prices have doubled, and at times tripled, since 2020, while fertilizer companies have generated more than $20 billion in profits for shareholders over the past five years. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen (Steven) Vaden told farmers the department is committed to addressing concerns about fertilizer pricing and enforcing antitrust laws. “We are working to bring actions down the pike that will seek to shine a light on what’s been going on in the fertilizer market,” Vaden said. Iowa Corn Growers Association President Steve Kuiper (KY-pehr) says farmers will continue gathering evidence and pushing investigations forward until they have access to a fair and free fertilizer market. 

More Farmers Turn To AI For Day-To-Day Decisions

Farmers are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence for help with day-to-day decisions as they manage rising costs, weather uncertainty, and tighter margins. Bloomberg says a new McKinsey Global Farmer Insights report finds 17 percent of farmers worldwide now use generative AI for farm-related tasks. Adoption is even higher in North America, where 23 percent of farmers report using the technology. McKinsey says the trend reflects farmers’ need for faster information and more efficient decision-making after several years of financial pressure. Generative AI can help growers quickly access agronomic advice and evaluate options without making major investments in hardware. But farmers aren't ready to replace human expertise. Just six percent cite AI tools as a trusted source for farm decisions, compared with 56 percent who rely on technical agronomists. Sales representatives also remain influential, although their share fell from 67 percent in 2024 to 56 percent this year.

Fuel Costs Add Pressure Through Transportation Surcharges

High fuel prices are creating another financial headache for farmers through transportation surcharges that can ultimately reduce the price producers receive for their crops. Diesel prices above six dollars a gallon are already putting pressure on farm budgets, but higher fuel costs also raise expenses for railroads, ocean vessels, and other transportation providers. Those added costs will make their way back to farmers through a lower price at the point of sale, particularly in the competitive global soybean market. Transportation providers generally have three choices: pass higher costs to customers, absorb them, or pass them back to suppliers through lower prices. For agriculture, the third option is often the most likely. Shippers risk losing international customers if they raise prices too much, as buyers can turn to competing suppliers such as Brazil. That makes fuel surcharges another leak in farmers’ profitability and adds to the urgency producers feel for relief at the pump.

Four Agricultural Startups Advance In Farm Bureau Challenge

Four agricultural startups have advanced to compete for $100,000 in the 2027 Farm Bureau Ag Innovation Challenge. The American Farm Bureau Federation, in partnership with Farm Credit, says the competition highlights entrepreneurship in rural agriculture. The runner-up will receive $25,000. “The future of agriculture is being shaped by innovators like these four finalists,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “They are transforming bold ideas into practical tools and technologies that will help farmers and ranchers thrive while continuing to provide the food, fuel, and fiber we all rely on.” Now in its 13th year, the challenge was the first national business competition focused on rural entrepreneurs launching agriculture and food-related businesses. Farm Bureau is offering $145,000 in startup funds. The finalists emerged from ten semifinalist teams that participated in a virtual pitch round judged by agricultural supply-chain experts. They will compete January 10 at the AFBF National Convention.

Farm Credit System Sees Rising Credit Risk Amid Farm Pressures

The Farm Credit System remains financially sound, but rising credit risk is becoming a concern as farmers continue facing higher expenses. The Farm Credit Administration board received an update on agricultural conditions and the System’s performance through June 30. FCA says the agricultural economy remains pressured by higher costs, although weather and geopolitical supply shocks have created marketing opportunities that could help crop producers’ liquidity this fall. Livestock producer profits have been more varied, while farmland values continue to rise despite soft returns in recent years. During the first six months of 2026, the Farm Credit System reported modest loan growth, increased earnings, and sound capital levels. Overall loan portfolio quality remained sound, but nonperforming assets increased to 1.09 percent of loans outstanding and other property owned as of June 30, up from 1.02 percent a year earlier. FCA says the increase shows credit risks continue to trend higher.

CHS Investment Adds Major New Soybean Demand

A major new soybean processing investment in Wisconsin could create more demand and another important market for soybean farmers. CHS says it will invest about $700 million to build a soybean processing facility near Evansville, Wisconsin. The plant will be capable of processing 80 million bushels of U.S.-grown soybeans annually when it begins operations in 2028. CHS says the facility will expand market access and create new demand for soybeans, while producing about one billion pounds of soybean oil and two million tons of soybean meal each year. Wisconsin Soybean Association President Doug Rebout says the investment delivers something growers have been seeking. “For Wisconsin soybean farmers, this investment represents something we have been working toward for years: stronger demand for the crop we grow right here at home,” Rebout says. He adds the additional processing capacity will give growers another reliable market close to the farm while creating long-term opportunities for soybeans in both meal and oil markets.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Tuesday looks to be a light schedule for reports, with USDA's Economic Research Service releasing their monthly commodity outlooks (Feed, Wheat, Oil Crops, etc.) at 2 p.m. CDT. Otherwise, traders will continue to follow geopolitical news as well as watch for early yield reports from across the country with early harvesting now underway.

Weather

A cold front will lead to scattered showers and storms across the Upper Midwest Tuesday, with some of the heaviest rain targeting southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northern Illinois. Rainfall totals by early Wednesday morning could approach 1-2 inches in some of these areas. The front could also extend as far south as West Texas, leading to scattered showers and storms for the Panhandle.

USDA Cuts Corn Outlook, Raises Soybean Production Estimate

USDA lowered its corn production forecast while slightly increasing its soybean estimate in its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports released Friday. USDA projected the national corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from its August forecast. Production is now estimated at 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million bushels from last month. Projected 2026-27 corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels, while the average farm price increased 30 cents to $4.80 per bushel. Soybean production was raised to a record 4.535 billion bushels, with the national yield increasing slightly to 52.8 bushels per acre. Soybean ending stocks were reduced to 310 million bushels, while the projected farm price climbed 60 cents to $12 per bushel. USDA left U.S. wheat production unchanged at 1.531 billion bushels.

First U.S. Horse Infected with New World Screwworm

USDA has confirmed the first New World screwworm infection in a U.S. horse, marking another troubling development in the parasite's return to the United States. The case involves a working ranch horse in Presidio County, Texas, near the Mexican border. The infestation was found in a wound on the horse's hind limb. Texas officials have restricted movement of susceptible warm-blooded animals within an infested zone covering portions of Presidio and Jeff Davis counties. New World screwworm larvae feed on the living tissue of animals and can cause serious injury or death. The parasite was eradicated from the United States decades ago but returned this summer, when USDA confirmed cases in Texas cattle. A widespread outbreak could have enormous consequences for cattle producers through animal losses, treatment costs and livestock-movement restrictions. USDA continues surveillance, trapping and sterile-fly releases as part of its eradication effort.

U.S. Diesel Price Tops $6 a Gallon for First Time

The national average diesel price has exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time, creating an immediate cost problem for farmers entering the heart of harvest. GasBuddy reported Thursday that diesel reached the record as global petroleum supplies tightened because of Middle East disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and fuel-export restrictions from Russia and China. U.S. diesel inventories are about 13% below their five-year average, according to Reuters. Refining margins for diesel have also reached record levels. The timing could hardly be worse for agriculture. Combines, tractors, grain trucks and irrigation systems consume enormous quantities of diesel during harvest, meaning the increase could significantly raise production and transportation costs. Higher petroleum prices could benefit ethanol and renewable diesel by improving their economics relative to fossil fuels, but the immediate impact for most farmers is sharply higher operating expenses.

China Continues Buying U.S. Soybeans Ahead of Xi Visit

China's recent buying spree continued Thursday when USDA announced another 272,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean sales to China for the 2026-27 marketing year.  USDA also reported 206,500 tons sold to unidentified destinations. Those sales follow China's purchase of approximately 1 million metric tons of American soybeans this week, according to traders interviewed by Reuters. The buying comes ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping's expected visit to Washington later this month and as Brazilian soybean supplies tighten. China has now purchased nearly half of the 25 million metric tons annually it committed to buy through 2028 under its agreement with Washington. The remaining 10% Chinese tariff on U.S. goods still discourages private crushers from buying American beans. Any reduction in that tariff during upcoming negotiations could produce another significant wave of soybean demand during harvest.

Ethanol Demand Remains Above Last Year Despite Weekly Slowdown

U.S. ethanol production and blending declined slightly during the latest reporting week, but underlying demand remains stronger than a year ago. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that ethanol production averaged 1.099 million barrels per day during the week ended Sept. 4. Ethanol blending averaged 908,000 barrels per day, down from the previous week but 3.2% above the comparable period last year. The four-week average blending rate was also above year-ago levels. Inventories increased to 25.187 million barrels, approximately 10.3% above a year earlier. The report presents a mixed picture for corn growers: inventories are relatively large, but gasoline blending continues to provide substantial domestic corn demand. The extraordinary increase in petroleum prices adds another variable. With crude oil above $100 and diesel at record highs, biofuels are becoming increasingly attractive from an energy-security and fuel-cost standpoint.

Oil Supply Outlook Worsens, Threatening Fertilizer and Transportation Costs

The International Energy Agency warned Friday that global oil supplies could decline by approximately 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, considerably more than previously forecast because of disruptions involving Middle Eastern producers. Saudi Arabian production reportedly fell to around 6 million barrels per day in August, its lowest level in more than 30 years. Brent crude remained above $100 Friday and was headed toward an 8% weekly increase, despite easing somewhat during morning trading. The implications extend well beyond farm diesel. Petroleum and natural-gas markets influence fertilizer manufacturing, agricultural chemicals, grain transportation and food-processing costs. Higher energy prices also are increasing inflation concerns and pushing interest rates higher, potentially increasing borrowing costs for farmers already carrying more expensive operating debt. For agriculture, the situation presents an unusual combination: higher production costs but potentially stronger ethanol and renewable-fuel economics.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT, as well as a series of follow-ups to last Friday's WASDE at 1 p.m. CDT, such as updating the wheat and feed grains database. At 3 p.m. CDT, the Crop Progress report will be released, updating field level conditions to begin the week.

Weather

A big storm system will move through the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies on Monday. The system is already producing areas of widespread showers and thunderstorms, which will expand north and east throughout the day. Some areas of heavy rain and severe weather will accompany strong winds around the low-center. Meanwhile, it stays much hotter and more like summer across the southern tier of the country

China Steps Up U.S. Soybean Purchases Ahead of Xi Visit

China has purchased about 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week, providing a boost to American growers as harvest approaches and trade talks continue between Washington and Beijing. Four traders told Reuters that Chinese buyers booked 14 to 15 cargoes for shipment from U.S. Gulf terminals between December and February. USDA separately reported Wednesday sales of 340,000 metric tons to China and 100,000 tons to undisclosed destinations. Reuters reported the purchases bring China's U.S. soybean buying to nearly half of the 25 million metric tons Beijing committed to purchase annually through 2028. The buying comes as inventories tighten in Brazil, the world's leading soybean exporter. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington later this month. President Donald Trump said in July the meeting was scheduled for Sept. 24, although China has not formally confirmed the date.

New 45Z Guidance Opens Opportunities for Farmers, Biofuel Producers

New federal guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit could give farmers greater opportunities to benefit from crops produced using practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Internal Revenue Service issued Notice 2026-53 this week, providing the 2026 emissions-rate table and guidance for calculating credits for qualifying transportation fuels. According to the IRS, the rules allow certain regenerative agricultural practices to be included when calculating the carbon intensity of agricultural feedstocks used for biofuels. The guidance also addresses manure-derived fuels and farm-specific manure management. The National Corn Growers Association welcomed the guidance, saying it provides needed clarity for farmers and fuel producers. NCGA President Jed Bower said the organization also wants Treasury to recognize a "book-and-claim" system that would allow environmental attributes to be transferred without physically segregating grain. Treasury is expected to issue a final 45Z rule by November, according to NCGA.

Drought Prompts Hay Relief Effort for Northern Plains Ranchers

Persistent drought across portions of the northern Plains is creating forage shortages and prompting a nonprofit organization to deliver hay to struggling livestock producers. Farm Rescue has launched "Operation Hay Lift" to assist ranchers in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana, according to Farm Progress. High temperatures and limited rainfall have damaged crops and pastures across the region, reducing forage and feed supplies. Some areas have endured drought conditions for multiple years, leaving soil moisture reserves particularly low. Farm Rescue Field Operations Manager Luke Benedict said drought can affect entire rural communities, leaving neighboring ranchers unable to provide the assistance they traditionally offer one another. The organization plans to help transport donated or available hay to qualifying farm and ranch families. Farm Progress reported drought has affected much of cattle country this season, making hay increasingly valuable in hard-hit areas. Farm Rescue is encouraging ranchers, agricultural organizations and community leaders to identify producers needing assistance.

Sulfur Shortage Raises Concerns About U.S. Fertilizer Production

Florida lawmakers are urging the Trump administration to address sharply higher sulfur prices that could threaten domestic phosphate fertilizer production and increase costs for U.S. farmers. Florida Rep. Scott Franklin and seven other members of Florida's congressional delegation sent a letter Wednesday to President Donald Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking additional federal action. According to Franklin's office, Tampa sulfur prices previously averaged about $172 per long ton but have exceeded $1,100 per metric ton since May. Sulfur is a critical input in producing phosphate fertilizer, and geopolitical and shipping disruptions have tightened global supplies. Franklin's office said some domestic phosphate producers have reduced operating rates or idled facilities because of higher sulfur costs and supply constraints. Lawmakers suggested working with domestic refiners and sulfur marketers, addressing transportation bottlenecks and seeking supplies from U.S. allies. They warned continued shortages could increase fertilizer costs and make the United States more dependent on foreign fertilizer supplies.

Black Sea Disruptions Keep Wheat Markets on Edge

Wheat futures remain volatile as traders weigh continued disruptions to Black Sea grain exports against diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Chicago Board of Trade wheat fell Wednesday as traders took profits following a strong run-up in prices, Reuters reported. The most-active contract traded around $7.39 a bushel after reaching a 3½-year high of $7.95 last week. Wheat prices had climbed following reports of a Ukrainian strike on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, renewing concerns about disruptions to one of the world's most important grain-export regions. Ukraine said its forces struck targets that included a naval base and oil-loading terminal. Russia and Ukraine are major participants in global wheat markets, making disruptions to Black Sea shipping particularly important to international grain prices. Despite Wednesday's decline, wheat remains supported by uncertainty surrounding export flows. Traders also are watching U.S. crop forecasts and global supplies for additional direction in agricultural commodity markets.

Corn Conditions Hit Season Low as USDA Report Approaches

U.S. corn conditions have fallen to their lowest level of the growing season as farmers begin harvesting the 2026 crop and commodity markets await updated government production estimates. USDA reported 56% of the nation's corn crop was rated good or excellent as of Sept. 6, down from 57% a week earlier and 68% at the same point last year. Successful Farming reported corn harvest had reached 5% across seven states, ahead of the five-year average of 3%. About 25% of the crop had reached maturity, compared with the five-year average of 23%. Soybean conditions were steadier, with 58% rated good or excellent. About 26% of soybeans were dropping leaves, ahead of the five-year average of 20%. Markets now turn their attention to USDA's Crop Production estimates Friday, which will provide new indications of how summer weather affected corn and soybean yields and overall production.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday will be a full schedule for reports and data. Starting at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Consumer Price Index report. At the same time, USDA's delayed weekly Export Sales report will be out as well. The Ag trade will center around the release of USDA's September Supply and Demand estimates (WASDE) at 11 a.m. CDT. Finally, CFTC will be out with the Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CDT, updating positions as of Tuesday, September 8.

Weather

largely stalled out in the Tennessee Valley where it will continue to bring areas of showers and thunderstorms for Friday. Another front is moving through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. While there are few showers with it early Friday morning, we should see thunderstorms developing along it Friday afternoon and especially evening across the Upper Midwest.

U.S.-Canada Trade Fight Deepens, Putting Farmers in the Middle

An escalating trade dispute between the United States and Canada is creating new concerns for American farmers as retaliatory tariffs and import restrictions take effect. Canada imposed tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% Tuesday on $27.6 billion worth of U.S. imports, according to Canada's Department of Finance. Products affected include agricultural equipment, dairy products, steel, aluminum, appliances and electronics. The action follows new U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. President Donald Trump has responded by announcing restrictions on certain Canadian dairy products and directing federal agencies to begin removing Canadian goods from government purchasing programs. Farmers could feel the dispute from both directions. Canada is a major market for U.S. agricultural products, while American producers also rely on Canadian fertilizer, machinery and other inputs. The uncertainty comes as producers already face elevated production costs and tight margins. Agricultural groups and farm-state lawmakers are watching closely for signs the two governments could return to negotiations.

Corn Harvest Begins as U.S. Crop Condition Continues to Decline

The U.S. corn harvest is underway as farmers enter the final stages of a growing season marked by uneven weather and declining crop conditions. USDA's latest Crop Progress report showed 5% of the nation's corn had been harvested as of Sept. 6, compared with the five-year average of 3%. About 25% of the crop had reached maturity. However, only 56% of the crop was rated good to excellent, down another percentage point from the previous week and the lowest rating of the 2026 growing season. Soybeans continued developing ahead of their normal pace, with 26% of the crop dropping leaves compared with the five-year average of 20%. The declining corn rating will increase attention on USDA's upcoming Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Traders and producers are looking for evidence that late-season weather reduced yield potential after USDA projected a large crop earlier this summer. Harvest will expand rapidly across the Corn Belt during the coming weeks.

Grain Markets Await USDA's September Crop Estimates

Corn and soybean producers are awaiting USDA's September crop estimates, which could provide a clearer picture of how summer weather affected this year's harvest. USDA will release its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday, Sept. 11. The report will update projections for U.S. and global production, demand, exports and ending stocks. Market attention is particularly focused on corn. Agriculture.com reports analysts expect USDA could lower its new-crop corn yield estimate following reports of weaker-than-expected crop potential in portions of the Corn Belt. The August WASDE reduced old-crop corn carryout by 75 million bushels and soybean stocks by 5 million bushels. Friday's report comes as corn harvest begins and national crop ratings continue to deteriorate. Any reduction in expected production could tighten projected supplies and provide support for grain prices. Conversely, larger-than-expected production estimates could add pressure as newly harvested grain reaches the market. The report is scheduled for noon Eastern time Friday.