Farm income is expected to decline in 2026 despite stronger crop prices and higher government payments, according to FAPRI. The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute projects net farm income at $155 billion, down $8 billion from 2025 and below USDA’s September forecast. Crop receipts are expected to increase $16 billion, with corn and soybean receipts accounting for nearly $12 billion of that gain. But higher fuel, fertilizer, and other input costs are expected to outweigh a modest decline in pesticide expenses. Livestock receipts are projected to fall $13 billion, although cattle and calf receipts are expected to rise $9 billion. FAPRI (FAP-ree) projects nearly $13 billion in combined PLC and ARC payments in 2026, up $11 billion from 2025, as higher reference prices and low crop prices boost payments. The report projects record cattle prices continuing, with a cautious turn in the cattle cycle expected in 2027.
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