FAPRI Releases 2026 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook Now Available

The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute released its 2026 U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook. The near-term outlook for farm finances shows stark differences between crop and livestock sectors. Net returns remain poor for most row crops, but the cattle sector, in contrast, is experiencing record prices and returns to cow-calf producers. Grain and oilseed prices are expected to rebound modestly in 2026, having fallen from their recent peaks. Corn, soybeans, and wheat prices remain below their average of the last decade. Corn prices are projected to average $4.31 for the 2026 crop, while soybean prices are projected at $10.39 a bushel for 2026-2027. Prices for cotton, rice, sorghum, and many other crops are expected to show modest increases, but margins remain poor. The beef cow herd continued declining, resulting in record cow-calf operator profitability. This profitability eventually causes the cycle to turn, and cattle prices are predicted to start declining in 2027. 

More Reaction to EPA’s E15 Summertime Waiver

U.S. agricultural groups continued to react to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Summertime E15 waiver announcement. “Nationwide access to E15 is a much-needed win for family farmers and consumers alike,” said National Farmers Union President Rob Larew. “It helps lower costs at the pump while creating markets for farmers.” National Corn Growers Association President Jed Bower said, “This development will help our corn growers, who are doing their best to navigate tough times.” Senate Ag Committee Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) said every cent saved at the pump can make a real difference, adding that, “We must now act in Congress to pass my bipartisan legislation to permanently allow the sale of nationwide, year-round E15.” Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau, said biofuels play an important role in meeting America’s energy needs and are a win-win for farmers and drivers. “E15 gasoline saves consumers 10 to 30 cents per gallon at the pump,” Duvall said.

Court Decision Upholds Ban on Lab-Grown Meat

Earlier this week, a federal appeals court upheld Florida’s ban on lab-grown meat, which has been in place since 2024. The Center for the Environment and Welfare said the decision is another setback for those working to overturn Florida’s ban on lab-grown protein. “Lab-grown meat is an experimental product with many unknowns because there is a lack of long-term health studies,” said Will Coggin, research director at the Center. “Florida is joined by many other states that share concerns about petri (PEE-tree) dish protein, and it’s a sensible policy that keeps pace with consumer expectations.” Lab-grown meat is produced by extracting animal cells and growing them in large metal vats known as bioreactors. While the federal government approved the sale of lab-grown meat in 2023, there’s still no research on the long-term health effects of consuming the products. To date, seven states beyond Florida have enacted legislation banning the product. 

USGBC Releases the Corn Export Cargo Quality Report

USGBC Releases the Corn Export Cargo Quality ReportThe average aggregate quality of U.S. corn samples tested for the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council’s 2025-2026 Corn Export Cargo Quality Report was better than or equal to U.S. No. 2 on all grade factors. “The Council’s report, now in its 15th edition, is a testament to the organization’s dedication and commitment to connecting international end users of feed grains and their co-products to U.S. farmers,” said Mark Wilson, USGBC chair. Broken corn and foreign material registered at 2.4 percent after moving through export channels, the lowest in the report’s 15-year history. Protein content was measured at 8.5 percent dry basis, similar to last year’s crop, and starch concentration was observed at 72.1 percent, higher than in 2024-2025. The report is based on 430 yellow commodity corn samples collected from export shipments as they underwent the inspection and grading processes performed by licensed inspectors. 

Farm Futures Says Corn Acres May Surpass USDA Forecast

A Farm Progress survey led by Farm Futures Magazine indicated a few more corn acres than the USDA Outlook projected in February, but still fewer than in 2025. Based on the cumulative numbers from all states in the survey, corn planting intentions in 2026 are expected to drop about 2.4 percent from 2025, or about half the drop that USDA projected in February. “U.S. farmers are widely expected to slash corn plantings in 2026 as heavy supplies from last year’s record 17-billion-bushel harvest weigh on grain prices and pressure margins,” said Bruce Blythe, senior editor at Farm Futures. A 2.4 percent drop in corn acreage from 2025 would result in farmers planting about 96.4 million acres, over two million lower than the USDA’s February prediction. Soybean acres could be up a million from the USDA’s estimate, and possibly reach over 86 million acres. “Southern acres appear set to shift from unprofitable cotton and rice to more soybeans,” Blythe said.  

Weekly Ethanol Production Grows

Data from the Energy Information Administration and analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association showed ethanol production expanding 2.1 percent to 1.12 million barrels a day during the week ending March 20. That’s equivalent to almost 47 million gallons daily. Output was six percent higher than the same week last year and 7.8 percent above the three-year average for the week. Ethanol stocks swelled 2.9 percent to 27.2 million barrels, the largest weekly volume in a year. Stocks were 0.7 percent less than the same week last year but 3.2 percent higher than the three-year average. Inventories were built across all regions except the West Coast. The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, rose 2.2 percent to 8.92 million barrels a day. Demand was 3.3 percent higher than a year ago. Ethanol exports dropped 32 percent to an estimated 119,000 barrels a day, a ten-week low. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

While there are no major reports scheduled for Friday, markets will be tuned in to the White House Ag event, with President Trump scheduled to speak at 11:30 a.m. CDT. Later in the afternoon, CFTC will release the weekly Commitments of Traders report, updating positions as of Tuesday, March 24.

Weather

A sharp cold front continues to push southward through the country on Friday. Scattered showers are forming along it but will wane throughout the day and be very limited over driest areas of the Southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast. A burst of colder air follows behind it as well.