Pro Farmer Crop Tour Concludes, Projects Lower Corn, Higher Soybean Yields vs. 2025

Pro Farmer is projecting a smaller U.S. corn crop in 2026 after its annual Crop Tour found lower yield potential across much of the Corn Belt. The organization estimates the national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, with production totaling 15.344 billion bushels. The yield forecast is about 5% below 2025 levels and marks the first time in three growing seasons that Pro Farmer has not projected a record yield. Pro Farmer economist and Eastern Crop Tour lead Lane Akre (AAY-kree) said samples showed smaller crops than last year across multiple states. Expectations that Iowa could offset weather-related losses in Indiana and Illinois were tempered by drought in western Iowa. “When that spread is 20 bushels” in major eastern producing states, Akre said, it becomes difficult for Iowa to compensate. Soybeans provided a brighter outlook. Pro Farmer projected a national average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre and total production of 4.57 billion bushels, slightly above the 2025 yield but about 1 bushel below 2024.

EPA Waiver Keeps E15 Fuel Available Through Summer, Growth Energy Pushes for Permanent Fix

The Environmental Protection Agency has issued an emergency waiver allowing continued sales of E15 gasoline through the remainder of the summer driving season, a move welcomed by biofuel producers who say it provides certainty for fuel retailers and consumers. E15, a gasoline blend containing 15% ethanol, is approved for use in most vehicles on U.S. roads and is often sold at a discount to conventional fuel. Federal regulations have historically restricted summertime sales in some markets because of air-quality concerns, prompting the EPA to issue temporary waivers in recent years. Growth Energy, the nation’s largest biofuels trade association, praised the agency’s action and urged Congress to pass legislation allowing year-round E15 sales nationwide. In a statement, Chief Executive Officer Emily Skor said farmers, fuel retailers and motorists should not have to rely on emergency waivers to maintain access to the fuel blend. The waiver preserves E15 availability through the end of the summer, while the broader debate over a permanent legislative solution continues in Washington.

NCBA Criticizes Trump Comments on Beef Imports, Warns of Market Impact

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association on Friday criticized a social media post by President Donald Trump regarding beef imports, saying the remarks could undermine efforts to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd and have already contributed to lower cattle prices. In a statement, NCBA Chief Executive Officer Colin Woodall said the cattle industry shares a goal of keeping food affordable for consumers but argued that increasing imports of government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the solution. Woodall said cattle markets turned sharply lower Friday morning following the announcement, hurting producers at a crucial time as ranchers make decisions about herd expansion. The organization said U.S. cattle producers have been rebuilding herds after years of drought, high input costs and other challenges that reduced cattle numbers nationwide. NCBA warned that market interventions could discourage herd growth and threaten the industry's long-term stability despite strong demand for beef. The group said policies that weaken market signals risk slowing recovery efforts by farmers and ranchers seeking to expand production.

Screwworm Case Raises Questions Ahead of Cattle Border Reopening

A confirmed New World screwworm case in the Mexican state of Sonora is raising questions just days before the United States is scheduled to begin reopening a border crossing to Mexican cattle. Reuters reported Sonora confirmed its first case and activated emergency surveillance and containment measures. USDA previously announced the Douglas, Arizona, port would begin accepting livestock Aug. 24 as part of a phased reopening, provided Mexico continued meeting requirements under a joint action plan. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says screwworm larvae infest wounds in warm-blooded animals and can cause severe injury or death if untreated. The United States has restricted Mexican cattle movements while officials work to prevent the parasite from moving north. Drovers reported the Sonora discovery could complicate the reopening timeline. U.S. cattle producers are watching closely because imported feeder cattle affect supplies, while introduction of screwworm could create major economic losses for ranchers and livestock markets.

Senators Question USDA After Beef Export Data Error

Six Democratic senators are seeking answers from the Agriculture Department after a major error in U.S. beef export sales data raised concerns about the reliability of federal agricultural statistics. Reuters reported the senators, led by Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, asked USDA to explain how the mistake occurred and whether staffing reductions contributed. USDA previously reported beef export sales that appeared to surge nearly 500%, then revised the figure downward by about 90%. Reuters reported in July that incorrect sales to Italy and Chile were among the data problems. USDA described the incident as an isolated processing issue. Agricultural markets rely heavily on federal reports to assess supply, demand, exports and prices, meaning large errors can affect trading and producer decisions. The senators also requested information about USDA staffing changes and safeguards designed to prevent future mistakes. USDA has been reviewing its reporting procedures following recent questions about agricultural data accuracy and reliability.

California Growers Push for Stronger USMCA as Trade Review Begins

California farmers, agribusiness leaders and state officials are urging the United States, Mexico and Canada to extend and strengthen the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement as the trade pact enters a new round of annual reviews. At a roundtable in Fresno last week, participants emphasized the importance of tariff-free access to Canada and Mexico, which together purchased $8.2 billion in California agricultural products in 2025, according to data released by Brian Kuehl's organization, Farmers for Free Trade. The exports supported an estimated 40,700 jobs in the state. Speakers, including Rep. Jim Costa and California Agriculture Secretary Karen Ross, said predictable trade rules are critical for growers making long-term decisions on planting, labor and capital investments. Participants also called for progress on issues including sanitary and phytosanitary standards, maximum residue levels and Canada's dairy tariff-rate quotas. They warned that trade disruptions could reduce U.S. competitiveness in global markets. USMCA remains in force following its first mandatory joint review in July, though the three countries did not approve a full 16-year extension.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will be out at 10 a.m. CDT with their weekly Export Inspections update. In the afternoon, the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. CDT will give a look into crop conditions heading into the final business week of August.

Weather

An old front remains stuck across the Gulf Coast into the coastal Carolinas, an area that should remain active with scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day that may stretch back to Oklahoma as well. Another system is moving through the Canadian Prairies with scattered showers. Its cold front will push through the Northern and Central Plains with areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Both regions may see some severe weather Monday.