USDA Lowers Corn, Wheat Ending Stocks in July Supply Report

USDA trimmed its forecasts for corn and wheat ending stocks in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Friday, citing stronger demand and reduced wheat production, while leaving soybean supplies largely unchanged. USDA lowered projected 2026-27 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels, down from June's estimate near 1.84 billion bushels, as export demand increased. Wheat ending stocks were cut to 722 million bushels after USDA reduced its forecast for U.S. wheat production to 1.536 billion bushels, which would mark the smallest crop since 1970. Soybean ending stocks were estimated at 310 million bushels. The report follows concerns about drought-reduced wheat yields in parts of the Plains and continued strong global demand for U.S. grain exports. Analysts surveyed before the report had generally expected smaller supplies for both corn and wheat. Grain futures moved higher following the release, with wheat posting the strongest gains as traders reacted to the smaller production outlook and tightening supplies. Corn and soybean futures also advanced modestly amid expectations for continued export demand and ongoing weather uncertainty during the U.S. growing season.

USDA Revises Beef Export Data After Reporting Error

A major revision to U.S. beef export data is raising fresh questions about government reporting and adding uncertainty to livestock markets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday sharply reduced previously reported late-June beef export sales after identifying data entry errors. Reuters reported that export sales were cut by nearly 90% after traders questioned unusually large purchases reportedly made by countries including Chile and Italy. Successful Farming also noted concerns from market analysts who said the original figures appeared inconsistent with normal trade patterns. USDA reports are closely watched by livestock producers, exporters and futures traders because they influence marketing decisions and price expectations. The revision comes as U.S. cattle inventories remain near multi-decade lows and beef prices continue to trade at historically high levels. Analysts say confidence in government data is critical during periods of tight supplies and volatile markets. USDA officials said they are reviewing reporting procedures to help prevent similar mistakes in future export reports.

Soybean Ratings Slip as Weather Becomes Increasingly Important

Soybean crop conditions declined slightly last week while corn ratings remained steady, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report. USDA reported Monday that 64% of the nation's soybean crop was rated good to excellent, down one percentage point from the previous week. Corn conditions held at 67% good to excellent. Farm Progress reported that recent heat and uneven rainfall across portions of the Corn Belt contributed to the decline in soybean ratings, while weather forecasts remain favorable for many major production areas. Analysts say July weather is especially important because corn is entering pollination and soybeans are beginning critical reproductive stages. Yield potential can change rapidly depending on temperatures and moisture availability during the next several weeks. Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest continued to advance, moving beyond the halfway point nationally. Grain markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to weather forecasts and crop condition reports as traders attempt to estimate production ahead of USDA's August supply and demand updates.

Study Finds U.S. Farmers Face Higher Input Costs Than Brazilian Rivals

U.S. corn growers are paying significantly more for key farm inputs than their Brazilian competitors, raising concerns about the global competitiveness of American agriculture, according to a new study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association. The analysis, conducted by market research firm Kynetec, found U.S. farmers paid an average of 68% more for corn seed than Brazilian producers between 2023 and 2025. Prices for some fungicides and herbicides were more than double those paid in Brazil, while insecticide costs also were substantially higher. NCGA officials said the findings suggest market distortions and limited access to generic crop protection products are putting U.S. producers at a disadvantage as global competition intensifies. The report comes as many U.S. farmers face weak commodity prices and tight profit margins. Corn grower groups are urging policymakers to examine input pricing and trade policies to improve competitiveness in international markets.

North Carolina Restricts Foreign Farmland Purchases Near Military Sites

North Carolina has enacted a new law barring certain foreign entities from purchasing agricultural land and property near military installations, joining a growing number of states citing national security concerns over foreign ownership. Gov. Josh Stein signed House Bill 133, known as the North Carolina Farmland and Military Protection Act, last week. The measure prohibits governments, companies and individuals linked to designated foreign adversaries, including China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, from acquiring farmland or land located near military bases in the state. Supporters of the legislation said the restrictions are intended to protect military operations and prevent potential foreign influence over critical infrastructure and food production. The law affects areas surrounding major installations, including Camp Lejeune, Fort Bragg and Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point. North Carolina lawmakers have debated similar proposals for several years as concerns over foreign ownership of U.S. farmland have increased nationwide. More than two dozen states have enacted comparable restrictions.

Missouri Cannabis Workers Build Union Momentum Across State

Cannabis workers in Missouri are gaining momentum in union organizing efforts following a series of recent victories at dispensaries and production facilities across the state. Employees at High Profile Cannabis in Columbia recently ratified what the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 655 says is Missouri's first collective bargaining agreement for cannabis workers. The contract includes wage increases and paid vacation benefits. Meanwhile, post-harvest workers at Proper Brands in St. Louis voted 25-21 on July 1 to unionize, and employees at Vibe Cannabis are scheduled to hold a union election later this month. Union leaders told MMJ Daily interest in organizing has increased as workers seek improvements in pay, workplace safety and benefits. A May ruling by the National Labor Relations Board rejected arguments that certain cannabis workers should be classified as agricultural employees exempt from federal labor protections. Proper Brands CEO John Pennington said the company respects workers' decision and intends to maintain a constructive relationship with employees as bargaining begins.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT. In the afternoon, a series of follow-up reports to Friday's WASDE will be released such as updating the wheat and feed grains databases. Finally, USDA will release their weekly Crop Progress update at 3 p.m. CDT, offering a look into crop conditions around the U.S. ahead of a hot week for weather which is the primary driver behind rallying prices.

Weather

Extreme heat continues across the Northern Plains from the weekend and is spreading through the northern Midwest into the Northeast on Monday and into Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the southern tier of the country, which will limit high temperatures for areas that get hit.