China Steps Up U.S. Soybean Purchases Ahead of Xi Visit

China has purchased about 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this week, providing a boost to American growers as harvest approaches and trade talks continue between Washington and Beijing. Four traders told Reuters that Chinese buyers booked 14 to 15 cargoes for shipment from U.S. Gulf terminals between December and February. USDA separately reported Wednesday sales of 340,000 metric tons to China and 100,000 tons to undisclosed destinations. Reuters reported the purchases bring China's U.S. soybean buying to nearly half of the 25 million metric tons Beijing committed to purchase annually through 2028. The buying comes as inventories tighten in Brazil, the world's leading soybean exporter. Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington later this month. President Donald Trump said in July the meeting was scheduled for Sept. 24, although China has not formally confirmed the date.

New 45Z Guidance Opens Opportunities for Farmers, Biofuel Producers

New federal guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit could give farmers greater opportunities to benefit from crops produced using practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Internal Revenue Service issued Notice 2026-53 this week, providing the 2026 emissions-rate table and guidance for calculating credits for qualifying transportation fuels. According to the IRS, the rules allow certain regenerative agricultural practices to be included when calculating the carbon intensity of agricultural feedstocks used for biofuels. The guidance also addresses manure-derived fuels and farm-specific manure management. The National Corn Growers Association welcomed the guidance, saying it provides needed clarity for farmers and fuel producers. NCGA President Jed Bower said the organization also wants Treasury to recognize a "book-and-claim" system that would allow environmental attributes to be transferred without physically segregating grain. Treasury is expected to issue a final 45Z rule by November, according to NCGA.

Drought Prompts Hay Relief Effort for Northern Plains Ranchers

Persistent drought across portions of the northern Plains is creating forage shortages and prompting a nonprofit organization to deliver hay to struggling livestock producers. Farm Rescue has launched "Operation Hay Lift" to assist ranchers in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana, according to Farm Progress. High temperatures and limited rainfall have damaged crops and pastures across the region, reducing forage and feed supplies. Some areas have endured drought conditions for multiple years, leaving soil moisture reserves particularly low. Farm Rescue Field Operations Manager Luke Benedict said drought can affect entire rural communities, leaving neighboring ranchers unable to provide the assistance they traditionally offer one another. The organization plans to help transport donated or available hay to qualifying farm and ranch families. Farm Progress reported drought has affected much of cattle country this season, making hay increasingly valuable in hard-hit areas. Farm Rescue is encouraging ranchers, agricultural organizations and community leaders to identify producers needing assistance.

Sulfur Shortage Raises Concerns About U.S. Fertilizer Production

Florida lawmakers are urging the Trump administration to address sharply higher sulfur prices that could threaten domestic phosphate fertilizer production and increase costs for U.S. farmers. Florida Rep. Scott Franklin and seven other members of Florida's congressional delegation sent a letter Wednesday to President Donald Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking additional federal action. According to Franklin's office, Tampa sulfur prices previously averaged about $172 per long ton but have exceeded $1,100 per metric ton since May. Sulfur is a critical input in producing phosphate fertilizer, and geopolitical and shipping disruptions have tightened global supplies. Franklin's office said some domestic phosphate producers have reduced operating rates or idled facilities because of higher sulfur costs and supply constraints. Lawmakers suggested working with domestic refiners and sulfur marketers, addressing transportation bottlenecks and seeking supplies from U.S. allies. They warned continued shortages could increase fertilizer costs and make the United States more dependent on foreign fertilizer supplies.

Black Sea Disruptions Keep Wheat Markets on Edge

Wheat futures remain volatile as traders weigh continued disruptions to Black Sea grain exports against diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Chicago Board of Trade wheat fell Wednesday as traders took profits following a strong run-up in prices, Reuters reported. The most-active contract traded around $7.39 a bushel after reaching a 3½-year high of $7.95 last week. Wheat prices had climbed following reports of a Ukrainian strike on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, renewing concerns about disruptions to one of the world's most important grain-export regions. Ukraine said its forces struck targets that included a naval base and oil-loading terminal. Russia and Ukraine are major participants in global wheat markets, making disruptions to Black Sea shipping particularly important to international grain prices. Despite Wednesday's decline, wheat remains supported by uncertainty surrounding export flows. Traders also are watching U.S. crop forecasts and global supplies for additional direction in agricultural commodity markets.

Corn Conditions Hit Season Low as USDA Report Approaches

U.S. corn conditions have fallen to their lowest level of the growing season as farmers begin harvesting the 2026 crop and commodity markets await updated government production estimates. USDA reported 56% of the nation's corn crop was rated good or excellent as of Sept. 6, down from 57% a week earlier and 68% at the same point last year. Successful Farming reported corn harvest had reached 5% across seven states, ahead of the five-year average of 3%. About 25% of the crop had reached maturity, compared with the five-year average of 23%. Soybean conditions were steadier, with 58% rated good or excellent. About 26% of soybeans were dropping leaves, ahead of the five-year average of 20%. Markets now turn their attention to USDA's Crop Production estimates Friday, which will provide new indications of how summer weather affected corn and soybean yields and overall production.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday will be a full schedule for reports and data. Starting at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Consumer Price Index report. At the same time, USDA's delayed weekly Export Sales report will be out as well. The Ag trade will center around the release of USDA's September Supply and Demand estimates (WASDE) at 11 a.m. CDT. Finally, CFTC will be out with the Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CDT, updating positions as of Tuesday, September 8.

Weather

largely stalled out in the Tennessee Valley where it will continue to bring areas of showers and thunderstorms for Friday. Another front is moving through the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains. While there are few showers with it early Friday morning, we should see thunderstorms developing along it Friday afternoon and especially evening across the Upper Midwest.