Middle East Conflict Could Push Interest Rates Higher

An agricultural economist warns that ongoing conflict in the Middle East could put added financial pressure on U.S. farmers in the coming year. Michael Langemeier of Purdue University says the uncertainty tied to the situation may contribute to rising inflation, which could prompt interest rates to increase. Nearly 40 percent of producers surveyed in the latest Ag Economy Barometer expect inflation to exceed three percent. While not all input costs are expected to rise, Langemeier notes that expenses directly linked to global instability, such as fuel and fertilizer, are the primary concern. At the same time, higher interest rates would increase the cost of borrowing for operating loans and equipment purchases. This combination of elevated input costs and more expensive financing could significantly tighten farm profit margins. Lenders may also become more cautious, adding further strain. The outlook depends largely on whether inflation persists or broader economic conditions begin to slow in the months ahead.

Ag Groups Applaud Cuts on Tax Day

Cattle producers from across the country gathered in Washington, D.C., on Tax Day for a press conference highlighting the benefits of the Working Families Tax Cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The event featured members of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association. Industry leaders pointed to expanded estate tax exemptions and permanent small business tax provisions as key wins for producers. NCBA President and Virginia cattle producer Gene Copenhaver said the changes will help secure the future of family operations. “The expanded estate tax relief and permanent small business provisions provide greater certainty and help ensure that family-owned cattle operations can be passed on to the next generation,” he said. The legislation also includes enhancements to Section 199A and Section 179 deductions, along with a restored 100 percent bonus depreciation. Iowa Cattlemen’s Association President Craig Moss said the measures reflect years of advocacy and will support producers’ ability to reinvest and plan ahead.

Corn Growers Appreciate Tax Reforms on April 15th

Corn grower leaders are emphasizing the benefits of recent federal tax reforms as producers mark the first Tax Day on April 15th since the Working Families Tax Cuts law was enacted in July 2025. The National Corn Growers Association says several provisions in the legislation provide long-term certainty for farmers navigating a difficult economic environment. Ohio farmer and NCGA President Jed Bower said the changes will help producers plan ahead with greater confidence. “The certainty that comes with these tax provisions is extremely helpful as we navigate some really tough economic times,” he said. The law permanently extends key measures, including the qualified business income deduction, 100 percent bonus depreciation, and a higher estate tax exemption. It also continues the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, which supports biofuels used in sustainable aviation fuel. Industry leaders say the policy stability allows them to focus on expanding demand for corn through year-round E15 and biobased product incentives.

U.S. Ethanol Production Hits a Five-Week High

U.S. ethanol production edged higher for the week ending April 10, according to data from the Energy Information Administration analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. Output rose 0.4 percent to a five-week high of 1.12 million barrels per day, or 47.04 million gallons daily. Production was up 10.7 percent from a year ago and exceeded the three-year average by more than 11 percent. Ethanol inventories also increased, climbing 2.5 percent to 26.7 million barrels. Stock levels remain slightly below last year but above the three-year average, with gains concentrated along the East and Gulf Coasts. Demand showed strength as gasoline supplied to the U.S. market jumped 6.1 percent to 9.09 million barrels per day, a five-week-high. However, ethanol blending slowed, with net inputs falling 2.2 percent to a six-week low. Meanwhile, ethanol exports dropped sharply by 60 percent, marking a notable pullback in international shipments.

Don’t Offshore American Food Production

U.S. sugar producers are raising alarms over a surge of subsidized foreign sugar imports that they say is threatening the domestic industry. The American Sugar Alliance, representing more than 11,000 sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers, recently urged the U.S. Trade Representative to take action under Section 301 to address what it calls unfair global trade practices. In formal comments, the group warned that rising import volumes, particularly those exceeding established trade quotas, are driving down prices and eroding U.S. market share. Some countries have reportedly increased over-quota shipments by nearly 3,000 percent since fiscal year 2021. The alliance argues that current tariff rates, set more than two decades ago, have lost effectiveness due to inflation. As a result, they say foreign producers benefiting from government subsidies are gaining an advantage. Industry leaders caution that without intervention, financial strain could intensify, potentially leading to loan forfeitures and factory closures in the months ahead.

New Grant Opportunity Open for U.S. Sheep Producers

The American Lamb Board has been awarded a USDA Advancing Markets for Producers grant and is now seeking 150 U.S. sheep producers to participate in the program. Selected producers may receive up to $23,000 to help identify production inefficiencies, develop conservation and farm management plans, and adopt new technologies aimed at improving productivity while reducing emissions. Participants will also receive support services, including access to a Technical Service Provider, electronic identification tools, soil sampling, and NSIP ultrasound and genetic consulting. Applications for the program are open through May 1, with selected producers expected to be notified by June 1, 2026. For each producer, the program will start once the required eligibility documents are submitted and will conclude on September 30, 2028. For more information, go to lambboard.com. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

For reports on Friday, USDA will release the April Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CDT. At 2:30 p.m. CDT, the CFTC will release the weekly Commitments of Traders report, updating trader positions as of Tuesday, April 14.

Weather

A strong cold front is moving southeast through the middle of the country on Friday. While it is rather quiet early Friday morning, showers and thunderstorms will erupt along the front later in the morning throughout the day. Areas of heavy rain and severe weather are expected from Oklahoma to Wisconsin. Very cold temperatures are moving in behind the front and some areas near and across the Canadian border will not make it above freezing.