USDA Cuts Beef Production Forecast as Cattle Slaughter Slows

U.S. beef production is expected to decline this year and next as cattle slaughter remains historically low, according to USDA. The Economic Research Service said Thursday that 2026 beef production is projected at 24.877 billion pounds, down 90 million pounds from its August forecast. The agency lowered its 2027 projection by 145 million pounds to 24.835 billion pounds. Successful Farming reported cattle slaughter during the first eight months of 2026 averaged about 8,000 fewer head per weekday than during the same period last year. USDA said fewer cattle are expected to enter feedlots late this year and early in 2027, slowing marketings during the second half of next year. Higher projected feed costs also are expected to reduce carcass weights. Despite tight cattle supplies, USDA lowered its cattle price forecasts, citing weaker packer demand and reduced processing capacity.

China’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Exports Surge in 2026

China’s exports of sustainable aviation fuel have surged in 2026 as producers capitalize on growing overseas demand for lower-carbon aviation fuels. Chinese customs data show exports of bio-aviation kerosene were valued at nearly $217 million in July, up about 16% from January, according to ChinaData. Monthly shipments have fluctuated considerably, however, as producers navigate changing demand and export conditions. China has expanded its ability to serve overseas markets after approving sustainable aviation fuel export quotas for several producers. S&P Global reported that four approved facilities received combined annual export quotas of about 1.2 million metric tons, positioning China as a significant supplier to markets including Europe. The growth comes as China expands production of fuels made from renewable feedstocks such as used cooking oil. A recent study published in Frontiers said sustainable aviation fuel is expected to become an increasingly important part of China’s aviation emissions-reduction strategy. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this week.

Nevada Rancher Elected President of Public Lands Council

Nevada rancher Ron Cerri was elected president of the Public Lands Council as the organization concluded its 58th Annual Meeting on Sept. 17. Cerri, who operates a cow-calf ranch in Orovada, Nevada, has previously served on the council’s board of directors and held leadership roles with the Nevada Cattlemen’s Association, the Nevada State Grazing Board Central Committee and Humboldt County government. In remarks following his election, Cerri said he was honored to lead the organization and pledged to continue advocating for ranchers who graze livestock on federal lands. He credited the council’s recent work with helping provide greater certainty for permit holders and supporting the multiple-use mandate on public lands. The council also named Robbie LeValley of Colorado as vice president and Dr. Dave Daley of California as secretary. Outgoing President Tim Canterbury will remain on the leadership team as immediate past president. The Public Lands Council, founded in 1968, represents ranchers who rely on federal grazing lands across the West.

Mandatory Country-of-Origin Labeling Advances With Senate Farm Bill

Mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef moved closer to returning after the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version of the 2026 farm bill. The legislation includes an amendment tied to the American Beef Labeling Act that would restore mandatory country-of-origin labeling, or MCOOL, for beef. The proposal directs the U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Trade Representative to develop a World Trade Organization-compliant labeling system within one year. MCOOL requires retailers to identify where cattle were born, raised and slaughtered. Congress repealed the requirement for beef in 2015 after a WTO ruling opened the United States to retaliatory tariffs. R-CALF USA and the United States Cattlemen’s Association support reinstating MCOOL, arguing consumers should know beef’s origin. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and Meat Institute oppose the mandate, saying compliance costs could increase beef prices. The farm bill now awaits further Senate consideration.

USDA Ends Dairy Checkoff Support for ESG Initiatives

USDA has directed the dairy checkoff program to stop funding environmental, social and governance initiatives, saying producer-funded assessments should be used to strengthen markets and promote dairy products rather than support climate-related goals. Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins announced the move Thursday, describing it as a return to the original purpose of commodity checkoff programs. USDA said the action ends dairy checkoff support for ESG-related projects pursued through the Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy, including efforts tied to greenhouse gas reductions and net-zero targets. The department also directed the Agricultural Marketing Service to ensure that research and promotion funds in other commodity checkoff programs are not used to advance ESG mandates. USDA said producers fund the programs through mandatory assessments and that those dollars should be used to expand markets and support agriculture. USDA said the dairy checkoff remains effective in its core mission, citing research from Texas A&M University that found dairy promotion investments generated an estimated $5.93 return for every dollar spent.

Mexican Corn Buyers Tour Midwest to Strengthen U.S. Supply Connections

A Mexican corn buying group toured Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas this month as part of an effort to strengthen relationships with U.S. grain suppliers and expand sourcing opportunities. The U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council said the group represents Mexico’s dairy, cattle, swine, poultry and white corn industries. Participants purchase about 400,000 metric tons, or 15.7 million bushels, of U.S. corn and 80,000 metric tons of distillers dried grains with solubles annually. The delegation met with grower cooperatives in Iowa and Nebraska and visited a Nebraska farm to examine crop conditions. Participants also met with rail representatives to discuss transportation and border logistics. In Kansas, the group toured an agricultural cooperative, grain elevator and farms during corn harvest. Meetings with a rail company and the Federal Grain Inspection Service provided additional information about transportation, grain inspection and quality assurance. The council said additional buyer programs are planned to strengthen U.S.-Mexico grain trade.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT. In the afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT, the weekly Crop Progress report will be released, with an increased interest in harvest progress given wet conditions across the U.S. grain belt.

Weather

A front that has been stalled across the Corn Belt for most of the last week is starting to push southeast on Monday. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will work down into the Delta and Southeast throughout the day. Showers will continue across the Plains though, too, increasing soil moisture for several areas there.