U.S. Expects Major Farm Export Deal Following Trump-Xi Summit

The United States expects China to agree to purchase “double-digit billions” of dollars in U.S. agricultural products annually following a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Friday. Greer said the anticipated agreement would extend beyond soybeans to include a broader range of agricultural goods over the next three years. He referenced an existing agreement under which China committed to buying 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually. Trump also said China would increase purchases of American farm products following the summit, though specific commodities and volumes were not immediately disclosed. Soybeans remain the top U.S. agricultural export to China and have long been central to trade negotiations between the two countries. Traders are also monitoring whether China could reduce soybean tariffs, potentially reopening purchases by private Chinese importers.

Court Upholds New AEWR Rates

A federal judge in California on Thursday denied a request by the United Farm Workers to temporarily block the Trump administration’s revised wage rule for H-2A agricultural workers, a decision welcomed by farm groups supporting the change. The case challenges the Labor Department’s interim Adverse Effect Wage Rate methodology, which affects wages for foreign farmworkers employed under the H-2A visa program. The UFW sought a preliminary injunction and emergency stay, arguing the rule could reduce wages and harm workers. The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of California ruled the plaintiffs failed to demonstrate irreparable harm, saying claims of future wage losses and related hardships were largely speculative. The court also cited delays in seeking emergency relief. The judge did not rule on the broader merits of the lawsuit, which will continue. The court also found the UFW had standing to proceed on behalf of its members.

Dry Weather Slows Corn Planting Across Parts of Plains

Dry conditions across parts of the central Plains are delaying corn planting and increasing concerns among farmers already facing tight profit margins and rising input costs, according to producers interviewed by AgWeb. In central Kansas, some growers said fields remain too dry to support seed germination, leaving planters idle during a period that is typically one of the busiest of the spring season. Farmers reported that limited rainfall and worsening drought conditions have forced some to delay planting corn, soybeans and grain sorghum. The dry weather comes as producers contend with elevated fertilizer prices and broader economic pressures in the farm sector. Some farmers said they are hesitant to plant into dry soil without a more favorable forecast. Weather concerns have also added support to grain markets in recent weeks as traders monitor drought conditions across portions of the Plains and western Corn Belt.

Advocates Raise Concerns Over House FY27 Agriculture Spending Bill

Sustainable agriculture advocates are raising concerns about the House fiscal year 2027 agriculture spending bill, saying the proposal could reduce support for conservation, climate resilience and agricultural research programs. The House Appropriations Committee approved the measure in late April, advancing legislation that would provide about $26.3 billion in discretionary funding for agriculture, rural development and food safety programs, slightly below current spending levels. Republican lawmakers said the bill prioritizes farmers, ranchers and rural communities while reducing federal spending. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition said the proposal maintains some conservation funding enacted in previous legislation but falls short of addressing climate-related challenges facing farmers. The group also criticized staffing reductions at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and what it described as weakened support for conservation assistance and research programs. The legislation now faces consideration in the Senate, where lawmakers are expected to negotiate changes before a final spending package is approved.

U.S. Meat Sales Reach Record High as Consumers Prioritize Protein

U.S. retail meat sales climbed to a record $112 billion in 2025 as consumers continued prioritizing protein and fresh meat purchases despite higher grocery prices, according to the 2026 Power of Meat report released by the Meat Institute and FMI-The Food Industry Association. The annual report found meat sales rose 6.8% from the previous year, while pound sales increased 2%. Fresh meat sales reached nearly $80 billion, led by beef, chicken and pork. Researchers said younger shoppers, including Millennials and Gen Z consumers, helped drive growth. The report found 77% of consumers view meat and poultry as part of a healthy diet, while more than 90% said protein is important in their food choices. Industry groups said shoppers increasingly value meat for nutrition, convenience and taste. The report also noted that nearly all U.S. households purchased meat in 2025 and consumers averaged more than 56 meat-shopping trips during the year.

Global Rice Production Forecast to Decline for First Time in 11 Years

Global rice production is expected to fall in the 2026-27 marketing year, marking the first annual decline in more than a decade and raising concerns about tighter supplies and higher food prices worldwide. USDA forecasts global rice output at about 538 million metric tons, down from the previous year. The largest declines are expected in India, Myanmar and the United States, where farmers are projected to plant fewer acres. Analysts said rising fertilizer and energy costs linked to conflict in the Middle East have increased production expenses for growers, particularly in Asia. Some farmers are reportedly considering reducing or skipping plantings because rice is a fertilizer-intensive crop. The USDA also warned that lower global production, combined with record consumption and trade demand, could reduce world stockpiles. Wholesale rice prices in Thailand and rice futures in Chicago have already risen sharply in recent weeks.

Monday Watch List

Markets

For reports to begin the week, USDA will release weekly export inspections at 10 a.m. CDT Monday. In the afternoon at 3 p.m. CDT, USDA will release the weekly Crop Progress report. As always, traders and investors will remain in tune to developments in the Middle East as well.

Weather

After a very busy weekend for the Central U.S., yet one more storm system will move from the Central Plains into the Midwest on Monday. Heavy rain and thunderstorms from Sunday continue ahead of this system through the Midwest, but additional showers and thunderstorms should erupt across the Plains and into the western Midwest Monday afternoon and evening. A moderate risk of severe weather has been posted by the Storm Prediction Center over Kansas and extreme southeastern Nebraska for the enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. Heavy rain from the weekend and Monday could result in additional areas of flooding for the middle of the country. Cold air moving down behind the system is causing rain to change to snow in Wyoming with some accumulations there.