Fertilizer Prices Expected To Stay Elevated Through 2028

Fertilizer prices are expected to remain above pre-Iran war levels through 2028, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. Farmers and agricultural retailers continue to face higher costs as conflicts and supply disruptions affect global fertilizer markets. CoBank economist Jacqui Fatka says Middle East instability, tight supplies, and limited phosphate availability could keep prices elevated well into 2027 and beyond. The Middle East supplies more than 60 million tons of fertilizer and raw materials annually, with much of that moving through the Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ). The region also accounts for more than 30 percent of global urea exports. U.S. farmers have responded to higher prices by relying more on soil testing, variable-rate applications, and precision nutrient management. Some have reduced phosphate and potassium applications by 10 to 15 percent, while maintaining nitrogen rates to protect yields. Fatka says continued reductions in fertilizer use could eventually begin affecting soil productivity and crop yields.

Biopesticides Market Expected To Nearly Double By 2030

The global biopesticides market is projected to nearly double by 2030 as farmers and crop-protection companies respond to tighter pesticide regulations and growing demand for sustainable production. MarketsandMarkets expects the market to grow from $8.94 billion in 2025 to $17.68 billion by 2030, a 14.6 percent annual growth rate. The report says biological products are gaining traction as growers look for ways to reduce pesticide residues, manage resistance, and complement integrated pest management programs. Seed treatment is expected to be the fastest-growing application segment, while cereals and grains are projected to account for a significant share of demand. Advances in microbial products, biochemical ingredients, and formulations are improving shelf life, field performance, and application efficiency. Europe is expected to remain a significant market because of regulatory efforts to reduce conventional pesticide use and promote sustainable agriculture. For U.S. growers, the trend could mean more biological crop-protection options that can be integrated with conventional products and precision agriculture.

STB Review Could Make Competition Key To Railroad Merger

The proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger faces another important step as the Surface Transportation Board reviews whether the deal would benefit competition. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern submitted additional information in July after the STB requested more details before moving forward with its review. Federal regulations say railroad mergers should serve the public interest only when demonstrated benefits, including improved service, safety, competition, and economic efficiency, outweigh potential anticompetitive effects and service disruptions. The STB has specifically warned that further consolidation among the remaining Class I railroads could reduce geographic competition and create service problems during system integration. That means enhancing competition could be a higher hurdle for the proposed merger than simply maintaining existing competition. The board can require conditions designed to preserve or improve competition if it approves a merger. For agricultural shippers, the outcome could affect railroad service, routing options and transportation costs.

Michigan Farmers Stress Importance Of USMCA Markets

Michigan farmers and agricultural leaders told Congressman Tom Barrett that maintaining strong trade relationships with Canada and Mexico is critical to the state’s farm economy. Barrett joined producers at a roundtable hosted by Farmers for Free Trade and the Michigan Agri-Business Association to discuss the ongoing review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Canada and Mexico are Michigan agriculture’s top two export markets, with more than $1.7 billion in Michigan farm and food exports flowing to the two countries each year. Farmers told Barrett that access to those markets influences marketing decisions, input costs and long-term investments in their operations. Farmers for Free Trade Executive Director Brian Kuhel says Michigan farmers need a strong trading relationship with their neighbors and should have a voice in the USMCA review. Michigan Farm Bureau’s Jacob Smith also emphasized the importance of dependable agricultural markets across North America and said the talks could have significant implications for market access and farm profitability.

New Sheep IQ Website Puts Producer Resources In One Place

Sheep producers now have a new online resource designed to put practical management information and industry tools in one place. The American Lamb Board and American Sheep Industry Association have launched Sheep IQ, a website offering education and expert guidance for both new and experienced sheep producers. Resources cover sheep management, productivity, lamb and wool quality, targeted grazing, and other production practices. The site also includes podcasts, educational videos, industry updates, events, and workshops. American Lamb Board Chairman David Fisher says the site provides a one-stop shop for producers looking to operate more efficiently. The organizations say Sheep IQ was developed to make credible, easy-to-use information more accessible and help producers put proven management practices to work. Producers can visit SheepIQ.com to explore the site and sign up for updates. The organizations say the goal is to turn information into greater productivity and long-term growth for the U.S. sheep industry.

Rising Produce Imports Add Pressure For U.S. Growers

Rising labor, input, and regulatory costs are making it harder for U.S. fruit and vegetable growers to recover expenses and remain competitive. Since 2010, U.S. fruit production has declined 32 percent, while vegetable production has fallen ten percent. Meanwhile, fresh fruit and vegetable imports have each increased about 70 percent. Imports remain important for filling seasonal gaps and providing consumers with year-round supplies. But growing volumes arriving during U.S. harvest periods can add price pressure when domestic growers are selling highly perishable crops. The impact varies by commodity, with import competition affecting markets including lettuce, cabbage, blueberries, strawberries, and tomatoes. The challenge is especially significant because growers often have only a short window to market their crops and cannot simply store fresh produce until prices improve. The trend raises broader concerns about food security as the United States becomes more dependent on foreign production.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

On Tuesday, no major reports are scheduled to be released, though USDA's Economic Research Service will release their monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook at 2 p.m. CDT. Otherwise, traders will remain focused on growing conditions and yield speculation across the U.S., as well as the ongoing situations in the wars in the Middle East and Black Sea.

Weather

A weakened front continues to drift down into the Southeast where showers and a few thunderstorm are expected for Tuesday. A stronger front has pushed its way into the Northern Plains and will continue to push into the Central Plains and Great Lakes. More widespread showers and thunderstorms and some clusters of severe weather are expected throughout the day.