Mosaic is Idling Two Phosphate Facilities in Brazil

As part of its efforts to reduce costs and redeploy capital, the Mosaic Company announced it will start the process of idling and demobilizing a mining and chemical complex and a facility that performs related activities in Brazil. Mosaic expects that idling its facilities will reduce annual phosphate production at the Brazil facility by one million tons. However, Mosaic said the impact on earnings will be limited due to currently high sulfur prices. The company anticipates a pre-tax financial impact of $350 million to $400 million in early 2026, largely tied to asset impairments and closure costs. For agriculture, the reduction in phosphate supply could contribute to tighter fertilizer markets, adding potential cost pressure for farmers already facing elevated input expenses. The move will also cut the Mosaic workforce at the two locations. 

Soybean Farmers Invest in Great Lakes Exports

Soybean farmer leaders are investing in export infrastructure to strengthen supply chains and expand global market access, highlighted by a recent project at the Port of Milwaukee. On March 31, representatives from the Soy Transportation Coalition presented a $200,000 ceremonial check supporting the Phase II expansion of the Agriculture Maritime Export Facility. The expansion, completed April 2, increases capacity to ship U.S. soybeans and soybean meal to international buyers. The investment comes as the soybean industry ramps up processing to meet growing demand for renewable fuels, which is increasing supplies of soybean meal. Expanding export capacity is seen as critical to maintaining market balance and supporting farm prices. Leaders also emphasized the importance of diversifying transportation routes. Strengthening infrastructure along the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Seaway improves supply chain resilience and reduces reliance on traditional export hubs. For farmers, the project represents a strategic step toward improving profitability and navigating an increasingly uncertain global trade environment.

Iran Ceasefire Won’t Immediately Lower Fertilizer Prices

Earlier this week, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, so what does that mean for fertilizer prices? Farm Progress said the deal does include a commitment from Iran to allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (hor-MOOZ). However, that likely doesn’t mean fertilizer shipments immediately restart. A global analyst for the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services said the Strait’s limited reopening has taken some of the “immediate panic” out of the world fertilizer markets. However, shipping remains far from normal levels, and no one knows exactly how much fertilizer will move out of the Strait in the meantime. “Even with the Strait technically open,” Farm Progress reported, “cargoes may face delays and elevated war risk insurance, so normal trade resumption could take weeks or months.” A DTN fertilizer report said retail prices continue to spike, and in many cases by double-digits. 

Kentucky Passes Pesticide Liability Limitation Law

Kentucky has become the most recent state to pass a bill limiting liability for pesticide manufacturers after state lawmakers overrode the Governor’s veto of SB 199. Similar to bills recently passed in Georgia and North Dakota last year, SB 199 amends Kentucky law so that a federally registered pesticide label would be considered a “sufficient warning label” for any state law concerning a “duty to warn.” The law is intended to address lawsuits filed by plaintiffs in state court who argue that a pesticide manufacturer failed to warn consumers about health risks related to the use of a particular pesticide, often when the federal registered label for the pesticide doesn’t require such a warning. Following the passage of SB 199, pesticide manufacturers that get sued for failure to warn in Kentucky will be able to rely on their federally registered pesticide labels as a complete defense. 

RFA Endorses USDA Data, Recommends Adjustments

USDA data and analysis remain essential to agricultural markets, earning praise as the “gold standard” among global statistical agencies, according to comments submitted by the Renewable Fuels Association. In response to a USDA request for feedback, RFA Chief Economist Scott Richman emphasized the critical role USDA data plays in ensuring transparency and efficiency across commodity markets. He noted that the agency’s reports are widely used by industry stakeholders and policymakers, including the Environmental Protection Agency, when setting Renewable Fuel Standard requirements. Richman urged maintaining adequate funding and staffing to preserve the quality and reliability of USDA data, even as other priorities are reviewed. He also encouraged continued modernization, including improved online access and periodic updates to data collection processes. Additionally, he called for ongoing engagement with stakeholders through annual data meetings and feedback opportunities, particularly before any major changes to longstanding reports or datasets are considered.

April WASDE Shows Higher Than Expected Wheat Stocks

Other than higher-than-expected wheat stocks, there weren’t many surprises in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA. The 2025-2026 wheat outlook is for slightly higher supplies, marginally lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. The ending stocks were raised to 938 million bushels, ten percent above last year and the largest since 2019-2020. The season-average wheat price was raised a nickel to $5. The corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. Feed and residual use was unchanged at 6.2 billion bushels. The season-average corn price was raised five cents to $4.15 per bushel. The outlook for soybean supply and use includes higher crush, lower exports, and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean crush rose by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion on increased soybean meal domestic use. The season-average soybean price for 2025-2026 is forecast at $10.30 per bushel, up by ten cents.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday at 7:30 a.m. CDT, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index report for March. After the close, USDA will release a series of follow-up reports to Thursday's WASDE such as updating the Feed Grains and wheat databases at 1 p.m. CDT. At 2:30 p.m. CDT, the CFTC will round out the week with the Commitments of Traders report, updating positions as of Tuesday, April 7.

Weather

A cold front has largely stalled from the Kansas-Oklahoma border up through the Ohio Valley on Friday morning. That front will cause periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, including parts of the very dry southwestern Plains.