WASDE Raises Corn Yield Forecast, Surprising Market Analysts

USDA unexpectedly raised its corn production forecast Friday, projecting larger supplies than analysts anticipated in its October World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates. USDA increased its estimated national corn yield by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels, up from September's forecast of 178.5 bushels. According to DTN, the increase pushed projected corn production to 16.03 billion bushels, compared with 15.8 billion bushels last month. USDA also raised projected corn ending stocks by 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion bushels, substantially above the average trade expectation of 1.677 billion bushels. Soybean production was increased to 4.562 billion bushels, with average yields projected at 53.1 bushels per acre. Soybean ending stocks increased slightly to 315 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks were raised to 740 million bushels. The larger corn supply outlook could pressure grain prices as farmers continue harvesting the nation's 2026 crops.

Record Farm Debt May Be Higher Than USDA Estimates

U.S. farm debt has climbed to a record level, and agricultural economists warn the actual amount owed by producers could be considerably higher than government estimates. Reuters reports USDA estimates farm debt exceeds $605 billion, more than double the amount recorded in 2000. However, traditional government surveys may not fully capture financing provided by equipment manufacturers, agricultural cooperatives, suppliers and financial technology companies. These alternative lending arrangements have become increasingly important as farmers contend with elevated production costs, volatile commodity prices and tighter profit margins. Researchers say approximately half of U.S. commercial farms now use some form of vendor financing. The growing reliance on non-traditional credit raises concerns about whether policymakers and lenders have an accurate picture of agricultural financial conditions. USDA researchers are exploring ways to improve debt reporting and identify financial risks. Economists warn that underestimating farm debt could complicate efforts to respond to a broader agricultural downturn.

U.S. Corn and Wheat Export Sales Jump as Soybean Sales Decline

U.S. corn and wheat export sales increased sharply during the latest reporting week, while soybean sales declined despite continued purchases by China. The Agriculture Department reported corn export sales of 769,500 metric tons for the week ending Oct. 1, up 44% from the previous week and 28% above the four-week average. Mexico led corn purchases with 508,800 metric tons, followed by Colombia and Japan. Wheat export sales climbed 56% to 451,600 metric tons. Major buyers included the Philippines, South Korea, Bangladesh and Japan. Soybean sales fell 47% to 549,400 metric tons, according to USDA figures cited by Successful Farming. China purchased 382,900 metric tons of soybeans, while Mexico bought 139,800 tons. The soybean total was reduced by the cancellation of 385,200 metric tons in previously reported sales to an unidentified destination. Export demand remains a critical factor for grain prices as American farmers continue harvesting their 2026 crops.

USDA Announces $1.8 Billion in Conservation Payments to Producers

The Agriculture Department announced approximately $1.8 billion in Conservation Reserve Program payments to farmers and landowners participating in federal conservation programs during 2026. USDA's Farm Service Agency announced the payments Thursday, providing financial support to producers who maintain eligible land under conservation contracts. The Conservation Reserve Program compensates landowners for removing environmentally sensitive acreage from agricultural production and establishing approved conservation practices. Those practices can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality and provide habitat for wildlife. Grassland CRP allows producers to maintain grazing operations while protecting grassland resources through conservation agreements. The payments arrive as farmers face continuing financial pressure from production expenses, commodity price fluctuations and weather-related disruptions. The announcement also follows the Sept. 30 expiration of farm bill authority for new CRP enrollment, although previously approved contracts remain in effect. Conservation payments provide an important source of income for participating landowners while supporting long-term agricultural resource protection.

Idaho Reclaims World Record for Largest Serving of French Fries

Idaho has reclaimed the Guinness World Record for the world's largest serving of French fries, producing nearly 1,500 pounds of fries during Boise Potato Days over the weekend. The Idaho Potato Commission and Spud Daddy teamed up to transform 1,700 pounds of Idaho-grown potatoes into 1,474 pounds of fresh-cut fries, surpassing the previous record established in India in 2018. Idaho originally held the record in 2014 before losing the title to Greece and later India. According to the Idaho Potato Commission, the record-breaking effort required six fryers and approximately 50 workers to prepare and cook the massive serving. Following the official weigh-in, the fries were distributed free to festival attendees. Guinness World Records recognition is highly competitive. According to a report by CBS News' "60 Minutes," the organization receives approximately 50,000 record applications annually, with as many as 95% rejected. The achievement returns the French fry title to America's leading potato-producing state.

Monday Watch List

Markets

As Monday is a Federal holiday, there will be no reports released (USDA's usual Monday releases are delayed until Tuesday). Markets will likely continue to trade off last Friday's USDA data while watching for updates regarding the conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East.

Weather

A system moved into the West over the weekend and brought in some tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. It also led to accumulating snow in Montana as the remnant low of Rachel moved in. That low will move east into the Upper Midwest on Monday as showers continue across the northern tier of the country. This should all fall as rain. Meanwhile, the primary system continues in the West and will move eastward over the next few days.

Farm Program Payouts Hit Record $13.8 Billion

The U.S. Department of Agriculture says farmers will get about $13.8 billion in Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage – ARC and PLC – payments for the 2025 crop year. It marks the largest annual payout since the programs were created in the 2014 Farm Bill. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the payments will provide producers with liquidity to cover operating expenses, prepare for the next crop year, and invest in their operations. The increased support comes in part from changes in the Working Families Tax Cuts Act, which raised reference prices, improved payment calculations, and increased payment limits. For the 2025 crop year, eligible producers will automatically get whichever payment, ARC or PLC, provides the higher benefit. Sixteen crops triggered PLC payments, including corn, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, rice, peanuts, canola, and seed cotton. USDA also reminds producers that enrollment for the 2026 ARC and PLC programs is now open through local Farm Service Agency offices.

Clint White to Lead Sorghum Checkoff

The United Sorghum Checkoff Program named Clint White as its next executive director, effective Oct. 1. White succeeds Norma Ritz Johnson, who will stay with the organization through Jan. 12, 2027, to assist with the leadership transition before retiring. White has served as the checkoff’s director of communications since 2021, leading consumer marketing efforts, producer outreach, and industry partnerships. He has also helped connect sorghum research initiatives with market development opportunities. Sorghum Checkoff Board Chair Kim Baldwin says White brings strong relationships, innovative ideas, and a deep understanding of the organization’s responsibility to farmers. White has more than 20 years of communications and marketing experience and has earned multiple industry awards. Before joining the checkoff, he held leadership roles with Chuck E. Cheese’s, The Thomas Agency, and Fossil. As executive director, he’ll work with the producer-led board and CEO Tim Lust to guide investments in crop improvement, market development, and education programs for U.S. sorghum growers.

Ag Equipment Makers Face Federal Inquiry, Seed Markets Next

The U.S. Department of Agriculture and Federal Trade Commission have launched a joint public inquiry into potential anticompetitive practices in agricultural equipment markets, according to The Wall Street Journal. The agencies said the effort is in response to complaints from farmers about barriers to purchasing equipment and getting repair services. Progressive Farmer reported regulators are seeking information on whether manufacturers or dealers are restricting competition and how those practices may affect farmers, independent repair shops and rural communities. The announcement weighed on equipment manufacturers' stocks. According to Investing.com, shares of Deere & Company fell 5%, while CNH Industrial and AGCO Corp. declined 5.7% and 5.9%, respectively. In addition, Iowa Capital Dispatch reported that USDA is expanding cooperation with the Department of Justice to investigate competition in seed markets. The agencies will examine seed pricing, licensing, and other practices as USDA officials raise concerns about rising seed costs for producers.

ASI Gains Congressional Support in Lamb Import Case

More than 60 members of Congress are urging the U.S. International Trade Commission to support American sheep producers as it investigates the impact of imported lamb meat on the domestic industry. Sen. Steve Daines of Montana and Rep. Celeste Maloy of Utah led a bipartisan letter signed by 68 lawmakers, asking the commission to review evidence presented in an ongoing global safeguard investigation. If warranted, they recommended relief for U.S. producers. The effort follows a safeguard petition requested by the American Sheep Industry Association and a subsequent investigation launched by the U.S. International Trade Commission in July. An injury hearing is scheduled for Oct. 16. ASI Executive Director Mike Michener thanked lawmakers for supporting American sheep producers, saying their efforts help protect domestic supply chains and rural communities. According to ASI, imported lamb now accounts for more than 70 percent of the lamb available to U.S. consumers, contributing to lost sales and market share for domestic producers.

DMI Names Corey Scott President and CEO

Dairy Management Inc. has named Corey Scott as its third president and CEO in the organization’s history. Scott succeeds Barbara O’Brien, who plans to retire following the Joint Annual Meeting of the National Dairy Promotion and Research Board, National Milk Producers Federation and United Dairy Industry Association later this month. Scott is slated to begin his new role on Oct. 12. He says he’s honored to serve America’s dairy farmers and help advance the dairy checkoff’s mission of growing dairy demand and creating opportunities for producers. The DMI Board of Directors selected Scott to lead the organization as it continues efforts to connect with consumers, strengthen dairy promotion programs, and support the future of the industry. O’Brien, who has led DMI in recent years, will retire after the annual meeting scheduled for Oct. 19-21, completing a leadership transition at one of agriculture’s largest commodity checkoff organizations.

Markets Await October USDA Supply and Demand Estimates

USDA’s October Crop Production Report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE, are scheduled for release at noon Eastern Time on Oct. 9. World Agricultural Outlook Board Chair Mark Jekanowski says the October reports will incorporate key data released over the past two months, providing a clearer picture of 2026 crop production and supply-and-demand conditions. Jekanowski says harvest progress and additional production information should help USDA move closer to final production estimates for major crops. Data from the Small Grain Summary and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report will play an important role, particularly for corn and soybeans. “Those stock estimates, they're the fourth quarter of the marketing year, so those final stocks estimates become the beginning stocks, the carrying stocks for the new crop,” Jekanowski explains. USDA will also factor in findings from the September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report and the monthly Cattle on Feed report.  

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday's session will center around the release of the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports from USDA at 11 a.m. CDT. After the close, CFTC will release their weekly Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CDT, closing the week with a look at trader positions as of Tuesday, October 6.

Weather

A batch of thunderstorms is located over Iowa early Friday morning. Those storms should be weak as they drift eastward into northern Illinois Friday, but may produce a couple of areas of heavier rain. Eyes are all on Hurricane Isaias though, which may get up to Category 3 strength before landfall Friday night between Mobile Bay and Pensacola, FL. Flooding rain, wind damage, and coastal flooding is expected near landfall, though heavy rain and breezy winds will penetrate inland across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley this weekend.

Food Prices Climb Slightly Higher in August

Beef prices continued to climb in August, as higher fuel costs added pressure to the broader food-price picture. The Consumer Price Index shows overall prices increased 0.4 percent in August, with gasoline prices jumping 3.9 percent and accounting for more than one-third of the monthly increase. Food-at-home prices were unchanged during the month but increased 2.2 percent from a year earlier. Within that category, beef and veal prices rose 5.9 percent over the past year, while fish and seafood increased 6.5 percent. Egg prices, meanwhile, fell 23 percent. Food purchased away from home increased 3.4 percent over the past year, compared with 2.2 percent for groceries. For beef, tight cattle supplies remain the primary driver. Beef cow inventories are historically low, the 2026 calf crop is smaller, and rebuilding the herd will take time. Strong consumer demand has also helped keep beef prices elevated, while higher energy costs add pressure throughout the food supply chain.

ARC/PLC Safety Net Payments Expand for Farmers

Farmers are beginning to see the impact of expanded Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage programs, with congressional agriculture leaders highlighting $13.8 billion in ARC and PLC support. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman of Arkansas and House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson of Pennsylvania say the improvements include higher reference prices, updated payment limits, and more than 30 million new base acres. USDA confirms the base-acre expansion is being implemented for the 2026 crop year, with producers currently making ARC or PLC elections and enrolling through December 11. Boozman and Thompson say the changes are designed to provide producers with greater protection against market volatility and production losses. USDA says ARC provides payments when actual farm revenue falls below a guarantee, while PLC payments are triggered when market prices fall below established reference prices. The Working Families Tax Cuts also expanded access to disaster assistance programs and made crop insurance more affordable.

U.S. Ethanol and DDGS Exports Continue to Climb

U.S. ethanol exports climbed six percent in August to 211.8 million gallons, reaching their highest level in five months as shipments increased across most major markets. Canada remained the top destination, taking 84.8 million gallons, up 14 percent from July. That accounted for 40 percent of total U.S. ethanol exports. Shipments to the European Union rose two percent, while exports to the United Kingdom jumped 52 percent. Colombia posted an even larger gain, with shipments surging 163 percent. Through August, U.S. ethanol exports totaled 1.62 billion gallons, 12 percent ahead of the same period last year. No U.S. ethanol imports were recorded in August. Exports of dried distiller’s grains, or DDGS, also posted a strong month. August shipments increased 18 percent to 1.30 million metric tons, the highest monthly total since August 2015. Through August, DDGS exports totaled 8.57 million metric tons, up 13 percent year over year.

Red-Dyed Diesel Tax Relief is a Deferral, Not a Waiver

Farmers using red-dyed diesel on the road should understand that the recently announced tax relief is a deferral, not necessarily a permanent tax break. Mike Steenhoek (STEEN-hook), executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, says President Trump’s executive order directs Treasury to defer certain federal diesel tax obligations for qualifying fuel used between October 5 and December 31, without penalties or interest. The order also directs officials to explore ways to eliminate the deferred tax obligation. For farmers, the savings depend on purchasing additional dyed diesel during the relief period. Previous purchases of taxed diesel would not qualify. Consider a farmer who purchases 2,000 gallons of red-dyed diesel for both on-road and off-road needs. Using the federal diesel tax rate of 24.4 cents per gallon, that would defer about $488 in federal taxes. State taxes vary, and farmers would need to follow their state’s rules. The American Soybean Association and state soybean groups are urging federal and state officials to ultimately waive the deferred taxes, rather than require farmers to pay them later.

Canadian Farmers Remain Most Trusted Part of Food System

Canadian farmers remain the most trusted stakeholders in the country’s food system, even as new research shows Canadians are becoming less certain about where that system is headed. The Canadian Center for Food Integrity says 57 percent of Canadians have a positive impression of the food system, unchanged from last year. However, just 40 percent believe it is moving in the right direction, down five percentage points from 2025. Affordability remains the biggest concern, with 49 percent calling food costs a major issue. Concern about food misinformation also increased, rising from 40 to 43 percent. Against that backdrop, trust in farmers increased five percentage points, giving them the highest trust level among Canadian food-system stakeholders. CCFI says the findings highlight the importance of credible, trusted voices as Canadians navigate rising costs and an increasingly complex information environment.

AFT Calls for Stronger PFAS Guidance for Farmers

American Farmland Trust is urging the Environmental Protection Agency to strengthen proposed guidance addressing PFAS (PEE-fahs) in biosolids, with a greater focus on farmers and farmland. EPA released draft guidance in July outlining voluntary recommendations for wastewater facilities, landowners, and farmers, to reduce potential risks from two types of “forever chemicals” in biosolids. The agency says the guidance is intended to help reduce risks while maintaining appropriate beneficial uses of biosolids. AFT says farmers face unique health and economic concerns from potential PFAS contamination and wants EPA to provide more farmer-specific information, including guidance on crops with lower PFAS uptake. The organization also wants EPA to prioritize preventing additional contamination of agricultural land and address potential effects on farmland value and future production options. AFT is calling for EPA to finalize its 2025 draft biosolids risk assessment and conduct a national survey of PFAS in biosolids. EPA says its draft guidance is voluntary and does not establish regulatory thresholds.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

On Thursday, USDA will be out at 7:30 a.m. CDT with the weekly Export Sales report. Otherwise, there are no major reports scheduled for what should be a quiet day ahead of the USDA WASDE and Crop Production reports on Friday.

Weather

The weather pattern across the U.S. continues to be quite warm and dry on Thursday, though a pocket of showers and thunderstorms could form over Iowa Thursday night. A system will work its way into the Canadian Prairies into Friday as well. Eyes are focused on the Gulf as Isaias strengthened into a hurricane Thursday morning and will continue to build strength throughout the day and Friday. The current forecast has Isaias becoming a borderline Category 3 storm before landfall near Mobile, AL, on Friday night.

Trump Order Expands Access to Tax-Free Diesel

President Donald Trump has signed an executive order temporarily expanding access to tax-exempt, red-dyed diesel in an effort to ease soaring fuel costs for farmers and truckers. The order directs the Treasury Department to defer certain federal diesel tax payments through December 31 and provide penalty relief for dyed diesel used on highways during that period. It also directs USDA to help ensure adequate supplies of dyed diesel in high-demand areas and encourage states to take similar action. The federal diesel tax is 24.4 cents per gallon, although state taxes would require separate action. The White House says states matching the federal relief could increase savings. However, energy experts and economists question how much the move will help farmers, warning that infrastructure for distributing red-dyed diesel is limited. Increased demand could also strain supplies and potentially push prices higher for farmers.

Farm Bureau Applauds Diesel Tax Relief

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall is applauding President Trump’s executive order expanding access to tax-exempt dyed diesel fuel. Duvall said the move could provide relief for farmers during harvest, when fuel costs are a significant expense. He noted that the federal highway diesel tax is currently more than 24 cents per gallon. Duvall said allowing dyed diesel to be used on the road could help farmers operating grain trucks or hauling livestock long distances. He added that even small changes in fuel costs can have a meaningful impact on farm operations. The Farm Bureau president also pointed to the importance of quickly moving crops to market as harvest continues across the country. Duvall said the organization had urged the president last week to provide farmers with diesel price relief and thanked the administration for responding to those concerns. The executive order temporarily eases federal restrictions on using tax-exempt dyed diesel for highway travel.

Farmer Sentiment Falls as Input Costs Remain a Top Concern

Farmer sentiment weakened in September as higher input costs continued to weigh on producers’ financial outlook. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 12 points from August to 123. Both components declined, with the Index of Current Conditions dropping 18 points and the Index of Future Expectations falling nine points. For the first time since July, more farmers expected their financial situation to worsen rather than improve over the next year. Thirty-five percent expected to be worse off, compared with 22 percent who anticipated improvement. Higher input costs remained the biggest concern, cited by a record 52 percent of respondents. Fifty-four percent said high input costs were the main factor limiting improvement in their farm’s financial situation. The Farm Financial Performance Index fell to 90, while the Farm Capital Investment Index dropped six points to 39. However, long-term farmland value expectations reached a record-high index of 168.

Trade Talks Between the U.S. and India Hit Plateau

Trade negotiations between the United States and India appear to have stalled, with India’s finance minister saying the two sides may have reached a point where further concessions are difficult. India Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (Nir-MAH-lah SITH-hah-rah-mahn) said negotiations are continuing, but both countries have reached a “plateau” in the give-and-take. Her comments followed U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s statement last week that a trade agreement was not imminent. The talks include efforts to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with India and expand American access to the Indian market. USTR says the U.S. goods trade deficit with India reached $58.4 billion in 2025, up nearly 28 percent from the previous year. For U.S. agriculture, a trade agreement could affect market access and opportunities for farm exports to India. But with both sides still divided over key issues, the timing of a final deal remains uncertain.

Bipartisan Bill Would Extend Small Biodiesel Producer Credit

A bipartisan Senate bill would extend a tax credit for small biodiesel producers through 2029, providing additional certainty for plants and farmers who supply the industry. Senators Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota introduced the Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Credit Extension Act. The credit is currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2026. Eligible small producers can receive a 20-cent-per-gallon credit on their first 15 million gallons of qualifying agri-biodiesel, provided their production capacity does not exceed 60 million gallons. Grassley said the credit can help small producers plan investments and maintain jobs in rural communities. Klobuchar said extending the credit would provide farmers and biodiesel producers with certainty while supporting domestic fuel production and commodity markets. The legislation is endorsed by Clean Fuels Alliance America and Western Iowa Energy. As an example, Grassley said biofuels support more than 31,000 jobs in Iowa.

Lamb Industry NextGen Program Accepting Applications

The American Lamb Board is accepting applications for a new leadership program designed to develop the next generation of U.S. lamb industry leaders. The two-year Lamb Industry NextGen Program will combine industry education, travel, hands-on learning, mentorship, and networking throughout 2027 and 2028. Participants will explore best management practices, emerging technologies, innovative businesses, and new market opportunities across the lamb industry. The program will include tours and leadership workshops, virtual meetings, and small-group projects. Participants will also attend the American Lamb Summit, American Sheep Industry Association Convention, and National Lamb Feeders Association Leadership School. Two participants will be selected for the LambEx/Global Tour, providing international exposure and opportunities to connect with sheep industry leaders worldwide. The American Lamb Board says applicants can be producers, students, entrepreneurs, educators, and allied-industry professionals, with preference given to those involved in sheep and lamb production. Applications are due December 31, 2026. The inaugural cohort will be announced February 1, 2027.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday looks to be a quiet day for reports, with the weekly Petroleum Status report out at 9:30 a.m. CDT from the Energy Information Administration. At 1 p.m. CDT, the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting will be released, giving traders and investors a glimpse into policy thoughts moving forward.

Weather

A warm and dry forecast continues for the vast majority of the country on Wednesday. Very little weather is actually occurring across the mainland U.S. outside of a few spotty showers in the Northeast and across Florida. But folks in the southeastern quadrant of the country will continue to eye the development of Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) as it is likely to become a hurricane prior to landfall on late Friday night or Saturday morning in the northern Gulf.

Farm Bill Expiration Leaves Rural Programs In Uncertainty

The latest extension of the 2018 Farm Bill expired September 30, leaving Congress without a new long-term agriculture policy. The Farm Bill covers farm safety-net programs, conservation, crop insurance, food assistance, and other programs important to rural America. Crop insurance and SNAP benefits will continue, but some conservation, research, rural development, trade, and energy programs face funding uncertainty without congressional action. The more immediate concern is programs whose funding or authority has expired. Some farm programs, including commodity and dairy support measures, are set to expire December 31. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman says farmers should not expect an immediate disruption, noting USDA can take administrative steps to keep programs operating through the end of the year. Meanwhile, bipartisan negotiations are expected to continue during the congressional break. Iowa Farmers Union President Aaron Lehman (LAY-man) told We Are Iowa that the biggest casualty of the Farm Bill impasse is the stability farmers rely on.

Farm Bureau Calls For Relief From High Diesel Costs

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall is calling on President Trump to take steps to lower diesel prices as farmers face record-high fuel costs during harvest. In a letter to the president, Duvall asked for a temporary suspension of the federal highway diesel tax, which currently exceeds 24 cents per gallon. He says diesel is essential for running tractors, combines, and irrigation equipment, as well as transporting crops, livestock, and farm inputs. The national average on-highway diesel price has reached $6.38 per gallon, while farm diesel in the heart of the Corn Belt is approaching $6. Farm Bureau is also asking the administration to waive federal penalties for emergency use of dyed diesel on highways. Duvall says farmers cannot postpone harvest or simply stop using diesel when prices rise, making high fuel costs a significant challenge during one of the busiest times of year.

Judge Extends Pause On USDA Employee Relocations

A federal judge in California has extended a temporary pause on USDA employee relocations while he considers whether to block the moves indefinitely. U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria (CHUB-ree-uh) extended the administrative stay through October 13. The pause affects deadlines for USDA employees who have received orders to relocate as part of the department’s reorganization. The USDA plan calls for relocating about 2,600 employees currently based in the Washington, D.C., area to agency hubs around the country. During a recent hearing, Chhabria questioned whether USDA has the authority to carry out the reorganizations without approval from congressional appropriations committees. USDA maintains it has legal authority to reorganize and says the changes are intended to deliver services more effectively. Federal employee unions challenging the plan argue the relocations could lead to significant employee losses and violate congressional restrictions. The judge is considering a preliminary injunction that could keep the relocations on hold while the case proceeds.

USDA Streamlines Rural Energy Program

USDA is changing the application process for the Rural Energy for America Program, or REAP, to simplify applications and protect taxpayer dollars. Under a final rule issued by USDA’s Rural Business Cooperative Service, applicants will have to complete and operate their energy projects before applying. That means producers and rural small businesses will need documented information showing actual energy savings, costs, and system performance. The rule also makes multi-location projects and certain technology applications ineligible. USDA says it will use a single national competition process to simplify administration and prioritize projects with verifiable results. The department also plans to launch an online application portal designed to reduce paperwork and shorten application and review times. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the changes will restore integrity and stability to REAP. USDA says the rule also discourages solar and wind projects on cropland and seeks to prevent taxpayer-supported projects from using components from foreign adversaries.

Family Farms Account For 97 Percent Of U.S. Farms

Family farms continue to dominate U.S. agriculture, accounting for about 97 percent of all farms in 2024, according to USDA data. Small family farms, those with gross cash farm income below $350,000, made up about 86 percent of all farms. They operated 40 percent of U.S. agricultural land and produced 17 percent of the total value of farm production. Large-scale family farms, with at least $1 million in gross cash farm income, represented just five percent of farms but accounted for 33 percent of agricultural land and half of total production value. Midsize family farms represented another six percent of farms and accounted for 18 percent of both agricultural land and production value. Overall, family farms operated 91 percent of U.S. agricultural land and produced 85 percent of the nation’s agricultural output. Non-family farms represented three percent of farms and accounted for 14 percent of production value, down from 17 percent in 2023.

U.S. Hog Herd Remains Tight With Little Expansion Expected

The U.S. hog herd remains smaller than a year ago, with USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report showing 74.3 million head as of September 1, down about two percent from last year. The breeding herd was estimated at 5.87 million head, down one percent and the smallest since 2013. The June-through-August pig crop also fell about one percent, while farrowings were down nearly three percent from a year earlier. USDA says the numbers point to little expansion potential through early 2027, but there is no evidence of widespread herd liquidation. Meanwhile, USDA lowered its pork export expectations for 2026 and 2027, citing softer global demand and increased competition from Canada and Brazil, particularly in Mexico, the largest foreign market for U.S. pork. Hog profitability remains positive, but higher corn prices are narrowing margins. Analysts say continued declines in hog prices could eventually pressure producers to reduce herd numbers further.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

On Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release the August Trade Balance report at 7:30 a.m. CDT. There are no other major reports due out and traders will continue to watch for updates regarding the ongoing U.S. harvests as well as regional conflicts, while also positioning ahead of Friday's WASDE report.

Weather

Tuesday will be a very dry and largely warm day across the vast majority of the U.S. with high pressure in control. The tail end of a front in the Gulf is being monitored for tropical development this week, which is likely to move through the Southeast this weekend.

China Buying Helps U.S. Soybean Export Sales Surge

Chinese purchases helped drive a sharp increase in U.S. soybean export sales during the latest reporting week, providing support for producers as the fall harvest moves forward. The Agriculture Department reported net soybean sales of 1.03 million metric tons for the week ending Sept. 24, up 78% from the previous week. China was the largest buyer at 589,400 metric tons, accounting for more than half of weekly sales. Egypt purchased 111,500 tons, while Algeria bought 95,500 tons. Farm Futures reports total U.S. soybean sales commitments for the 2026-27 marketing year have reached 817 million bushels, nearly double the level at the same point last year. Outstanding sales to China totaled 10.76 million metric tons as of Sept. 24. Corn export sales moved in the opposite direction. USDA reported weekly corn sales of 536,000 metric tons, down 36% from the previous week.

Farm Bill Expiration Halts New CRP Enrollment

New enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program has stopped following the Sept. 30 expiration of the 2018 farm bill, leaving USDA without authority to approve additional contracts. DTN reports Congress’ latest continuing resolution funds the federal government through Dec. 11 but does not extend the farm bill. The Agriculture Department’s Farm Service Agency told offices that Sept. 30 was the deadline for approving CRP contracts. Beginning Oct. 1, county offices can complete certain activities involving contracts approved before the deadline, subject to state office review. The lapse does not mean all farm bill programs immediately stop. Legislation passed in 2025 preserved funding for crop insurance, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and many other agricultural programs through 2031. CRP faces a different problem because USDA’s legal authority to enroll new acreage expired. The 2018 farm bill originally expired in 2023 and was subsequently extended three times. Congress could restore CRP enrollment by extending or reauthorizing the program.

Heavy Rain Slows Harvest Across Parts of Corn Belt

Heavy rain has interrupted corn and soybean harvest activity across portions of the Midwest, but forecasters say a drier weather pattern should soon allow farmers to return to fields. Remnants of Hurricane Polo contributed to heavy rainfall from Kansas and Nebraska through Missouri, Iowa and Illinois. Flood warnings and advisories remained in effect Friday in several areas, according to the National Weather Service. Farther east, rainfall is slowing fieldwork in Indiana and Ohio. Agriculture.com reports nearly 40% of Ohio fields already had surplus soil moisture as harvest began, leaving some areas vulnerable to additional delays. Indiana averaged only one day suitable for fieldwork during the previous week, while Ohio recorded 2.6 days, according to USDA data cited by Agriculture.com. Conditions are expected to improve. National Weather Service meteorologist Brad Pugh said a drier pattern should become established across most of the Corn Belt by October 5. The October 5-11 outlook favors below-normal precipitation in Indiana and Ohio.

Soybean Crushing, Corn Ethanol Use Increase

U.S. soybean processing and corn use for alcohol production increased in August compared with a year earlier, providing stronger domestic demand for two of the nation’s largest crops. The Agriculture Department reported Thursday that processors crushed about 210 million bushels of soybeans for oil during August, up from 198 million bushels in August 2025. The crush produced about 2.45 billion pounds of soybean oil, a 4% year-over-year increase. USDA also reported 528 million bushels of corn were used to produce alcohol during August, up 4% from the same month last year. Of that amount, about 478 million bushels went into fuel ethanol production. About 92% of the corn used for fuel alcohol was processed through dry-milling facilities. Dried distillers grains production totaled 1.85 million tons, down 2% from August 2025. Wet distillers grains production increased 5% to 1.28 million tons. USDA released its monthly Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports Thursday.

U.S. Ethanol Production Drops to Eight-Month Low

U.S. ethanol production fell to its lowest level since January as plants reduced output during seasonal maintenance. The Energy Information Administration reported production averaged 1.007 million barrels per day during the week ending Sept. 25. That was down 21,000 barrels per day from the previous week but 12,000 barrels per day higher than the same period last year. Midwest production, which accounts for most U.S. ethanol output, averaged 948,000 barrels per day, down 14,000 from the previous week. Ethanol inventories also declined sharply. Nationwide stocks fell by 818,000 barrels to 23.865 million barrels, the lowest level since the beginning of the year. Despite lower production, ethanol blending demand increased to 914,000 barrels per day, up 7,000 from the previous week. Exports also strengthened. Ethanol Producer Magazine, citing EIA data, reported exports averaged 142,000 barrels per day, up 16% for the week. No ethanol imports were reported.

Federal Judge Rejects Colorado Land Claim, Protects Public Grazing Access

A federal judge has rejected a group’s attempt to claim more than 1,400 acres of the San Juan National Forest, preserving federal control of land used for grazing and other public purposes. Chief U.S. District Judge Daniel D. Domenico ruled that the Free Land Holder Committee and representatives Patrick Pipkin and Bryan Hammon have no ownership claim to the land near Mancos in southwestern Colorado. The ruling prohibits the group from rebuilding fences or blocking public access, according to the Denver Post. The dispute began in 2024 when the group posted notices asserting ownership and erected about 4.5 miles of barbed-wire fence around approximately 1,460 acres near Chicken Creek. The decision is significant for agriculture because National Forest lands across the West provide grazing opportunities for livestock producers operating under federal permits. Maintaining federal ownership and access preserves the established system under which ranchers can use authorized public lands for livestock grazing.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly Export Inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT. After the close, the weekly Crop Progress report is out at 3 p.m. CDT, updating field conditions and harvest pace after what was a very wet past week across the central and western U.S. grain belt.

Weather

A cold front continues to push through the Southeast on Monday, producing some areas of rain, some of which may be heavy. But a large ridge of high pressure building across much of the U.S. will keep the weather fairly quiet for much of the week.

Rural Mainstreet Index Falls on Farm Cost Concerns

Rural bankers are growing more concerned about the farm economy as higher fuel and fertilizer costs weigh on producers. Creighton University’s September Rural Mainstreet Index fell to 44.7, down from 50.3 in August. Readings below 50 indicate economic contraction. Ernie Goss (GAHS), regional economist at Creighton University, says pessimism over higher input costs outweighed optimism about improving grain prices. Bankers identified fertilizer and fuel as the biggest financial pressures facing agricultural customers. About 53 percent cited higher fertilizer costs, while 47 percent pointed to soaring fuel prices. Farm equipment sales also remain weak. The September index came in at just 25, marking the 37th consecutive month below growth-neutral. Meanwhile, 79 percent of bankers said tariffs are negatively affecting their local agriculture and livestock economies. Goss says rural bankers remain pessimistic about the next six months, with the economic confidence index falling to 26.3 in September.

Corn Stocks Jump 35 Percent From Last Year

U.S. corn stocks heading into the new marketing year were substantially higher than a year ago, according to the latest USDA Grain Stocks report. Old-crop corn stored on farms and at commercial facilities totaled 2.10 billion bushels as of September 1, up 35 percent from a year earlier. USDA says 787 million bushels were stored on farms, a 22 percent increase from last September, while off-farm stocks totaled 1.31 billion bushels, up 44 percent. Corn disappearance from June through August totaled 3.20 billion bushels, compared with 3.09 billion during the same period in 2025. Soybean stocks were down three percent from a year earlier, while all-wheat stocks fell 14 percent to 1.85 billion bushels. USDA also revised its 2025 production estimates slightly, reducing corn production by less than one percent and soybean production by a small amount. The report comes as harvest gets underway, with larger old-crop corn supplies adding another factor for farmers watching prices this fall.

Michigan Farmer Takes Over as NCGA President

Michigan farmer Matt Frostic began his term Wednesday as president of the National Corn Growers Association. Frostic farms 1,000 acres of corn, soybeans, edible beans, and sugar beets near Applegate, Michigan. He says his priorities include securing year-round sales of E15, passing a new farm bill, and diversifying demand for corn. Frostic says those goals may seem ambitious, but the organization will do everything possible to make them a reality. “Farmers work day and night, at times through difficult conditions, to produce a crop that feeds and fuels America and the world,” Frostic said. “We deliver, and we expect our representatives in Washington to work hard and deliver as well.” Frostic previously chaired NCGA’s Input Cost Task Force, working on ways to bring farm input costs more in line with commodity prices. He also served as NCGA vice president and previously led the Michigan Corn Growers Association. NCGA presidents serve one-year terms beginning October 1.

Sheep IQ Workshops to Focus on Productivity and Profitability

Sheep producers still have opportunities this fall to attend American Lamb Board Sheep IQ Workshops focused on improving productivity, management, and profitability. Three producer-focused workshops are scheduled: October 16th and 17th in Cedar City, Utah; October 30th and 31st in Columbia, Missouri; and November 6th and 7th in Morgantown, West Virginia. The two-day workshops combine practical education, hands-on learning, and discussion among sheep producers. Topics include benchmarking and record keeping, marketing, breeding and genetics, animal health, nutrition, pasture and forage management, and production practices. Organizers say profitability in the sheep business is influenced by decisions throughout the production cycle, and small improvements can add up to meaningful gains in flock performance and returns. The workshops encourage producers to evaluate their operations, identify opportunities for improvement, and make informed management decisions. Programming will feature industry experts along with opportunities for producers to ask questions and exchange ideas. Registration remains open for all three fall workshops.

NFU Opposes Proposed Rail Merger

The National Farmers Union is opposing the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads, saying further rail consolidation could reduce transportation options for farmers. NFU President Rob Larew says decades of railroad mergers have left farmers with fewer options, higher rates, and less reliable service. He called on the Surface Transportation Board to prioritize rail competition as it reviews the proposed merger. The STB says the transaction would combine the two rail systems into a single network covering about 50,000 miles across 43 states. The Board is currently reviewing the revised merger application. NFU is also calling for reforms addressing captive shippers, reciprocal switching, maximum rates for captive movements, and accountability for delayed rail deliveries. The STB most recently denied motions seeking summary rejection of the merger application, while noting that decision did not address the merits of the proposed transaction.

USDA Expands Regenerative Agriculture Pilot

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expanding its Regenerative Agriculture Pilot Program for fiscal year 2027, providing $1 billion in financial assistance to producers. USDA says $650 million will be provided through the Environmental Quality Incentives Program, while another $350 million will come through the Conservation Stewardship Program. The funding supports voluntary conservation practices designed to address whole-farm resource concerns. Members of the Food and Agriculture Climate Alliance welcomed the expanded program and USDA’s plans to increase locally led input in selecting eligible conservation practices. The agency is also expanding technical assistance options for producers and maintaining whole-farm planning as the program enters its second year. USDA says producers can bundle multiple regenerative practices into a single application, while the program will support operations ranging from beginning producers to those with more experience. The Regenerative Pilot Program began in fiscal year 2026 with $700 million in funding.

Friday Watch List

Markets

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September Employment Report at 7:30 a.m. CDT. After the close, CFTC will wrap up the week with the Commitments of Traders report at 2:30 p.m. CDT.

Weather

A front that has produced areas of heavy rain this week is pushing southeast through the Midwest and Plains on Friday, heading into zones that have yet to see much rain this week. A drier weather pattern is developing behind the front, which will help floodwaters to recede with time. For some areas, this may take a while.

More Farmer Aid Unlikely Until After Midterm Elections

Republican lawmakers are warning that additional farm aid may not reach producers fast enough. Politico reported that Republicans are pushing to attach roughly $11 billion in direct farm assistance to a defense spending package. Payments likely would not arrive until spring of 2027. Lawmakers say delays could lead to more farm closures as producers struggle with low margins, high diesel costs, and economic pressures tied to international conflicts and trade disruptions. Meanwhile, The Hagstrom Report said Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman still expects Congress to approve additional aid and is working with the White House and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to find a legislative vehicle. According to AgroLatam, the proposed package includes $10 billion in economic assistance plus $1.1 billion for winter freeze losses, on top of USDA’s projected $44.3 billion in 2026 farm payments. The growing level of support has sparked debate. AgWeb and The Wall Street Journal reported that while farm groups say aid is essential, some economists question whether these payments are becoming a permanent source of farm income rather than a temporary safety net. 

Clean Fuels Applauds Effort to Extend Biodiesel Producer Credit

This week, U.S. Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) introduced bipartisan legislation to extend availability of the Small Agri-Biodiesel Producer Credit through 2029. U.S. companies that produce up to 60 million gallons of biodiesel per year using domestic agricultural feedstocks can claim this income tax credit of $0.20 per gallon on the first 15 million gallons of production. The credit will expire on Dec. 31 this year unless Congress adopts the extension introduced today. “Small biodiesel producers are making an outsized contribution to America’s energy security right now, producing lower-cost, drop-in distillate fuel that’s needed to keep the economy moving,” says Vice President of Federal Affairs Kurt Kovarik. “These companies are investing in rural communities, creating and preserving jobs, and running full out to provide cleaner, better, more affordable fuel to meet today’s demand.” 

USDA Boosts Regenerative Agriculture Funding for 2027

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expanding its Regenerative Pilot Program, increasing available financial assistance from $700 million to $1 billion for fiscal year 2027 and opening applications for farmers and ranchers interested in adopting regenerative conservation practices. USDA says the additional funding will help more producers improve soil health, water quality, and long-term farm resilience. The program will provide $650 million through the Environmental Quality Incentives Program and $350 million through the Conservation Stewardship Program. The agency is also making several changes to improve flexibility and participation. USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service will allow state advisory committees to recommend locally relevant conservation practices. The program will also lower the Conservation Stewardship Program’s resource concern threshold from 100% to 75%, reducing barriers to entry. According to USDA, more than 5,100 contracts totaling $851 million were funded through the program last year. Additional enhancements include expanded technical assistance, dedicated funding set-asides, improved tracking systems, and streamlined application procedures. Producers can apply through local NRCS service centers.

Former RFA Chair Offers Insight on Making the Most of 45Z

Former Renewable Fuels Association Chair Jeff Oestmann says ethanol producers should view the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit as an opportunity to strengthen their businesses long after the incentive expires. Speaking on RFA's latest Ethanol Report, Oestmann said producers should focus on building a stronger operation for the future rather than simply maximizing short-term tax credit revenue. The Section 45Z credit rewards biofuel producers for lowering the carbon intensity of their fuels and is currently scheduled to expire at the end of 2029. Oestmann said plants can position themselves for long-term success by improving core business fundamentals such as yield, energy efficiency, reliability, procurement, and co-product value. Those improvements can reduce carbon intensity while creating benefits that remain after the tax credit ends. He also urged producers to carefully evaluate carbon-related investments, including securing a market for captured carbon before committing capital to carbon capture projects. "The opportunity for an ethanol plant is really to use the credits. You monetize the credits and turn that into real value and then build a plant for 2031 and use those credits to pay for it."

USGBC Reacts to Ibach's Nomination as USDA Undersecretary

This week, former Nebraska Agriculture Director Greg Ibach was nominated to serve as the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s next undersecretary for trade and foreign agricultural affairs. The U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council, which develops export markets for U.S. barley, corn, sorghum, ethanol, and other related products, says Ibach is right for the job. “Greg has vast experience at the state and national levels in advocating for U.S. farmers in the international marketplace and will do a great job in this role,” says President and CEO Ryan LeGrand. “The Council looks forward to continuing its strong relationship and track record of earning major wins for U.S. agricultural exporters in tandem with its partners at USDA.” USGBC has nine international offices, with representation in 30 countries and programming in more than 70 countries worldwide.

USDA Announces FY 2027 Sugar Program Details

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced sugar loan rates and marketing provisions for fiscal year 2027, along with reallocations for fiscal year 2026. USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation provides loans to sugar beet and sugarcane processors, allowing sugar to be stored after harvest and marketed later when prices improve. Beginning Oct. 1, the national average loan rate will be 24 cents per pound for raw cane sugar and 32.77 cents per pound for refined beet sugar, reflecting increases authorized under the Working Families Tax Cuts Act. Regional beet sugar loan rates range from 32.53 cents per pound in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington to 34.08 cents in California. Raw cane sugar loan rates are set at 22.84 cents per pound in Florida and 25.07 cents in Louisiana. Processors receiving loans must meet minimum grower payment requirements to remain eligible. USDA also reallocated portions of FY 2026 sugar marketing allocations among processors to better reflect their ability to market available supplies and balance the domestic sugar market.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

To begin October, USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report at 7:30 a.m. CDT on Thursday. In the afternoon, USDA's Economic Research Service will release their updated Commodity Costs and Returns estimates at 1 p.m. CDT. At 2 p.m. CDT, NASS will release a series of crop demand reports: the monthly Oilseed Crush, Grain Crush, and Cotton Consumption.

Weather

A front continues to produce heavy rain as it moves slowly through the Central Plains and Midwest on Thursday, with heavy rain falling from Kansas to Michigan. An extension southward through Oklahoma and Texas is also an area seeing heavy rain and thunderstorms. Flooding has been an issue with this front this week, which continues on Thursday as well. Drier weather is developing behind the front across the Northern Plains, a pattern which will continue to spread through the country the rest of the week.

Soybean Group Highlights China Purchase Commitment

The American Soybean Association says China’s commitment to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 provides greater market certainty for soybean farmers. The commitment covers 2026, 2027 and 2028 and follows last week’s summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi (Zhee) Jinping. ASA President and Ohio soybean farmer Scott Metzger says China remains an important market for U.S. soybeans. “China’s annual commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans provides critical stability, and we expect those commitments to be fully met,” Metzger said. However, ASA says it is disappointed U.S. soybeans were not included among agricultural products receiving additional tariff relief from China. The group says China’s remaining ten percent retaliatory tariff limits access for private importers. The U.S. and China are scheduled to meet twice more before the current trade truce expires January 10.

U.S. Dairy Welcomes China Tariff Relief Plans

U.S. dairy groups are welcoming plans to include dairy products in tariff reductions under the new U.S.-China Board of Trade. The National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council say the development could improve market access for American dairy exporters, although the tariff relief will not take effect immediately. The two governments say implementation will follow their respective domestic laws and processes. NMPF President and CEO Gregg Doud says retaliatory tariffs have put U.S. dairy at a disadvantage in China, and the group wants those tariffs fully removed. U.S. Dairy Export Council President and CEO Krysta Harden says the agreement could give dairy exporters and their customers greater predictability. She also urged the Board of Trade to quickly eliminate remaining retaliatory tariffs. The groups welcomed a two-month extension of the broader U.S.-China tariff truce and say they will continue working to remove trade barriers affecting U.S. dairy exports.

Texas Tech Updates Study Of Foreign Sugar Subsidies

Texas Tech University has released an update to its 2019 report examining government support for sugar industries around the world. The study, authored by Texas Tech’s International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness, examines policies affecting sugar production in 29 countries representing more than 86 percent of global sugar production and 87 percent of exports. The researchers say direct foreign sugar subsidies have nearly doubled since 2005, rising from an average of $770 million to nearly $1.4 billion in 2024. The study also finds every country examined uses import tariffs or quotas to protect its sugar industry. The report says nine countries have ethanol or biofuel blending mandates, while governments play a significant role in setting sugar prices in several countries. The study is intended to provide information for U.S. trade negotiators and lawmakers examining competition in the global sugar market. The researchers say foreign government policies can influence global sugar prices and trade.

Ag Groups Highlight USMCA As North American Talks Continue

U.S., Mexican, and Canadian officials are meeting this week in Calgary, Alberta, as part of the Tri-National Agricultural Accord, with agricultural trade and the future of the USMCA among the issues drawing attention. The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA says trade with Canada and Mexico remains important to U.S. agriculture and rural communities. The coalition says agricultural and seafood exports to the two countries generated $149 billion in economic output in the United States in 2024. Coalition spokesperson Bryan Goodman says the Calgary meetings provide an opportunity for the three countries to address disagreements and identify areas for greater cooperation. The coalition supports renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is undergoing a review this year.  Goodman says the group hopes discussions during the agricultural accord will contribute to USMCA’s renewal and benefit producers and consumers across all three countries. The accord brings together officials from the three North American trading partners.

Ibach Nominated to Lead USDA Foreign Agricultural Trade

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is welcoming President Donald Trump’s nomination of Greg Ibach (EYE-baw) to serve as the next Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. Ibach, a former Nebraska agriculture director, previously served as USDA Undersecretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs during the first Trump administration. The White House formally sent his nomination to the Senate. Ibach would succeed Luke Lindberg, who has been appointed Executive Director of the United Nations World Food Program. Rollins congratulated Lindberg, crediting him with helping expand agricultural markets during his tenure, and said he helped the administration cut the agricultural trade deficit by 51 percent, delivered $177 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, established 20 new trade agreements and frameworks, and secured new agricultural purchase commitments. Rollins called Ibach a lifelong producer and proven leader who understands American agriculture from the farm gate to the global marketplace. The Senate will consider Ibach’s nomination to lead USDA’s international trade efforts.

U.S. Ban Officially Takes Effect on $1 Billion in Canadian Imports

The United States has begun banning nearly $1 billion worth of Canadian imports, including certain dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and motorcycles. The restrictions took effect Tuesday and come after Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following new American tariffs on Canadian products. The dairy portion includes whey and other dairy-related products. According to trade policy analyst Jacob Jensen, the banned products accounted for about $967 million in Canadian imports in 2025, with alcoholic beverages representing roughly 87 percent of that total. The restrictions add another layer to an already complicated U.S.-Canada trade relationship. The countries conduct about $880 billion in two-way trade annually. The latest action also comes as officials prepare to review the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The ongoing trade dispute has raised questions about the future of the North American trade pact.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

Wednesday is a busy day for reports, beginning with the Bureau of Economic Analysis' Personal Consumption Expenditure Index for August at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Later at 9:30 a.m. CDT, the Energy Information Administration will release the weekly Petroleum Status Report. Finally, at 11 a.m. CDT, USDA will release both the quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports, giving a look into grain inventories around the U.S. as of September 1.

Weather

A stalling front and tropical remnant low-pressure center are combining to produce areas of heavy rain from the Central and Southern Plains into the southwestern Midwest for Wednesday. Areas of flooding are ongoing and will continue to develop throughout the day.

China, U.S. Agree to $60 Billion in Tariff Cuts, Including Agriculture

The United States and China have agreed to reduce tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods traded between the two countries, including several major U.S. agricultural commodities. Under the U.S.-China Board of Trade, each country recommended $30 billion in non-sensitive goods for more favorable tariff treatment. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the move would improve market access for about 30 percent of U.S. exports to China. Reuters said China’s list includes U.S. corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, vegetable oils, and meals. However, soybeans were excluded from the tariff-cut list. China also plans to reduce tariffs on U.S. fish and seafood, logs, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices. The agreement came during President Donald Trump’s September 24 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington.  The countries also agreed to extend their broader trade truce.

Ethanol Could Open New Market In Marine Shipping

A new report is examining the potential for ethanol to become a low-carbon fuel for ocean-going ships, potentially creating another market for U.S. corn-based ethanol. The National Lab of the Rockies report, “Evaluation of Ethanol Use in Marine Shipping,” examines ethanol's technical, economic, and environmental potential in the maritime sector. Researchers say ethanol's compatibility with existing methanol engine technology, scalability, and environmental characteristics could make it an option for marine fuel. The report estimates the currently operating fleet of methanol dual-fuel ships could consume roughly two billion gallons of ethanol annually under high-substitution scenarios. Ryan LeGrand, president and CEO of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council, says even modest adoption could create billions of gallons of new ethanol demand and provide another long-term market for corn growers. Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says the report highlights ethanol's potential to expand beyond traditional transportation markets. The U.S. currently has two million gallons of idle ethanol production.

USDA Data Provides Closer Look At Foreign Farmland Holdings

New USDA data is providing a more detailed look at foreign interests in U.S. agricultural land, amid increased attention to foreign farmland investment. The Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act requires foreign persons to report interests in U.S. agricultural land. USDA's latest report shows 46.3 million acres of agricultural land had a reported foreign interest as of December 31, 2024, up 1.3 million acres from the previous year. The acreage figure includes more than outright foreign ownership. AFIDA also counts qualifying long-term leases, partial ownership interests, and other forms of control. USDA data shows long-term leases account for a substantial share of reported foreign-held acreage. Forestland also represents a large portion of the total, while renewable-energy projects account for much of the acreage associated with foreign-held leases. USDA researchers found foreign leases are much more likely than foreign-owned land to involve renewable energy development. USDA released the 2024 report in January.

Brazil Farmland Advantage Narrows Compared With the U.S.

Brazil's farmland-cost advantage over the United States has narrowed substantially, according to a new comparison from Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. Researchers compared farmland values in Iowa and Mato Grosso, Brazil, two major soybean and corn-producing regions, from 2002 through 2025. Iowa farmland values increased from $2,083 per acre in 2002 to $11,549 in 2025. Mato Grosso values rose from substantially lower levels but reached $11,145 per acre in 2022 before falling to $9,066 in 2025. Over the full period, farmland values increased at an annual compound rate of 7.7 percent in Iowa and 8.7 percent in Mato Grosso. By 2025, Iowa farmland values were 27 percent higher. Researchers say strong farm profits and commodity prices drove land values higher in both countries, while more recent declines in crop prices, rising input costs, and tighter credit have pressured Brazilian producers. The study says high Brazilian land values and interest rates have extended payback periods for farmers.

Red Meat Supplies in Storage Rise Eight Percent Year Over Year

Red meat in storage rose as pork supplies surged, USDA said in a monthly Cold Storage report. Meat in freezers on Aug. 31 rose eight percent from the same date last year to 862.1 million pounds. That was also up one percent month over month. Beef supplies increased by five percent annually, and two percent monthly to 407.1 million pounds as boneless cuts rose six percent year over year and three percent month to month, USDA said. Pork inventories jumped 12 percent from the end of August 2025 but were down one percent on a monthly basis. Ham supplies rose 26 percent from a year earlier and three percent monthly. Stocks of other red meat, including veal and lamb, plunged 15 percent year over year but rose eight percent monthly. Total frozen poultry stockpiles at the end of August, meanwhile, fell four percent annually. Chicken supplies fell five percent yearly while turkey inventories dropped two percent yearly.

FFA Next Gen Conference Highlights Animal Agriculture Careers

The National FFA Organization recently hosted its third Next Gen Conference of the year, bringing 72 FFA members from 23 states to Kansas City for a closer look at careers in animal agriculture. The September 15th through 19th conference brought together high school sophomores, juniors, and seniors for career exploration sessions, industry roundtables, hands-on activities, and tours. Students visited a Smithfield Foods hog production farm, Cargill Pet and Cargill Feed manufacturing facilities, and the American Royal. They also took part in hands-on activities with Cargill, Merck Animal Health, and Agriculture Teacher. National FFA says the conferences are designed to help students picture themselves working in agriculture while connecting them with industry professionals and career opportunities. Ashli Weinrich with National FFA says the conference equips students with knowledge and skills to prepare for future careers in agriculture. The 72 participants were selected from a competitive applicant pool.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey at 9 a.m. CDT, with September Consumer Confidence being released at the same time. There are no major Ag reports scheduled to be released, but as always traders will be in tune to updates regarding the war in the Middle East as well as in the Black Sea.

Weather

A cold front is found across the Northern and Central Plains early Tuesday. The front is producing batches of showers and thunderstorms which will grow throughout the day as it drifts southeast, ingesting tropical moisture coming from Hurricane Polo. The hurricane will be crossing over northern Mexico Tuesday on its way into the Central and Southern Plains for Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing areas of heavy rain into the middle of the country.

California Clears Way for E15 Gasoline Sales

California has cleared the way for sales of E15 gasoline, opening the nation’s largest auto market to fuel containing 15% ethanol. Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Senate Bill 795, removing the final regulatory barrier to E15 sales. California had been the only state where the higher-ethanol blend could not be sold, according to Reuters. The change could provide a significant new market for U.S. corn and ethanol producers. Aemetis CEO Eric McAfee estimated California could generate about 650 million gallons of additional ethanol demand annually. California officials say E15 could also help reduce gasoline costs. A study by economists at the University of California, Berkeley, and U.S. Naval Academy estimated E15 could reduce prices by as much as 20 cents per gallon and save California motorists up to $2.7 billion annually. Congress is separately considering legislation allowing year-round E15 sales nationwide.

Tighter Canadian Supplies Push Oat Futures Above $4

Oat futures have climbed nearly $1 per bushel during the third quarter as shrinking Canadian production and tight U.S. supplies support prices. Farm Progress reports oat futures recently broke above $4 per bushel for the first time in two years. The rally comes as Canada, a key supplier to the United States, faces a sharply smaller crop. Statistics Canada estimates 2026 oat production at about 3 million metric tons, down 22.7% from last year. Harvested acreage is projected to fall nearly 20%, while yields are expected to decline 3.5%. The United States remains a net oat importer. Farm Progress says USDA projects U.S. production at 68 million bushels, compared with imports of 72 million bushels and domestic consumption of 138 million bushels. Ending stocks are estimated at 32 million bushels. Tighter North American supplies could continue supporting prices into 2027.

U.S.-China Summit Leaves Key Agricultural Trade Issues Unresolved

U.S. farmers are awaiting more details on agricultural trade after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded talks Thursday without announcing a broader trade agreement. Reuters reports the countries extended their existing trade truce by two months, giving negotiators additional time to address tariffs, agricultural purchases and other disputes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is meeting an earlier commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually but is behind on a pledge to buy $17 billion in other U.S. agricultural products. China has yet to purchase U.S. corn for the current marketing year, while sorghum purchases have lagged expectations, according to Reuters. Farm groups are seeking stronger purchase commitments and reduced Chinese tariffs on American agricultural products. The trade truce now runs through Jan. 10 as negotiations toward a broader agreement continue.

Rain-Delayed Soybean Harvest Leaves Midwest Processors Scrambling for Supplies

Persistent rain across parts of the Midwest is delaying the soybean harvest, tightening supplies and forcing processors to offer large premiums for immediate deliveries. Reuters reports some soybean crushing plants have reduced production as old-crop supplies dwindle and new-crop beans remain unavailable. USDA projects processors will crush a record 2.78 billion bushels during the current marketing year. Cargill offered $1 per bushel above November futures for immediate soybean deliveries to its Sioux City, Iowa, facility Thursday, producing a cash price of $14.17½ per bushel. Other processors in Iowa and Minnesota also offered short-term premiums. Wet fields have prevented many farmers from harvesting despite attractive prices. Excessive rainfall has also slowed crop dry-down and maturity in portions of the Midwest. The shortage has affected soymeal markets, with October futures reaching a contract high Thursday as processors struggled to secure enough soybeans.

Cattle Futures Fall as Meatpacking Disruptions Slow U.S. Slaughter

Cattle futures declined Thursday as workforce disruptions at meatpacking plants contributed to a sharp drop in U.S. cattle slaughter. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated Thursday’s slaughter at 90,000 head, down from 107,000 a week earlier, Reuters reported. Industry representatives said increased immigration enforcement has kept some workers away from beef plants in Dodge City and Liberal, Kansas, delaying cattle shipments to processing facilities. The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and Texas Cattle Feeders Association said enforcement activity was having a significant effect on agricultural workers and warned that sudden workforce disruptions could affect animal welfare and beef supply-chain operations. Chicago Mercantile Exchange December live cattle futures fell 1.25 cents to $2.221 per pound Thursday. October feeder cattle dropped 1.575 cents to $3.3175 per pound. Industry officials said processing slowdowns could create cattle backlogs if labor disruptions continue.

Foreign Interests Hold 46.3 Million Acres of U.S. Agricultural Land

Foreign interests held 46.3 million acres of U.S. agricultural land at the end of 2024, representing about 3.6% of privately held agricultural land nationwide, according to USDA data analyzed by University of Illinois researchers. Farmdoc Daily reports the total includes more than traditional farmland ownership. Federal reporting requirements also cover certain long-term leases, including arrangements commonly used for wind and solar energy projects. Nearly half of reported foreign-held acreage is forestland, while cropland accounts for 29% and pasture and other agricultural land represent about 22%, USDA reported. Canadian interests account for the largest share of foreign-held agricultural acreage, driven largely by forestland holdings. Farmdoc researchers noted that foreign holdings have increased in recent years but remain a relatively small portion of privately owned U.S. agricultural land. The University of Illinois’ TIAA Center for Farmland Research has developed an interactive county-level map allowing users to examine foreign holdings by country, location and land use.

Monday Watch List

Markets

On Monday, USDA will release their weekly export inspections report at 10 a.m. CDT, with data for the week ending September 24. Ater the close, the weekly Crop Progress report will be out at 3 p.m. CDT, offering a look at harvest pace around the U.S. with wet conditions noted across much of the U.S. grain belt through September.

Weather

A front is moving through the Northern Plains on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving through the Dakotas, which should spread into parts of Minnesota and Nebraska, especially overnight.

U.S. and China Extend Trade Truce

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Donald Trump in Washington this week after U.S. and Chinese officials agreed to extend their trade truce through Jan. 10. According to The Associated Press, the extension maintains a pause on new tariffs and trade restrictions while giving both leaders more time to negotiate at upcoming international meetings. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some Chinese commitments remain unmet, although China has been a strong buyer of U.S. soybeans in 2026, while lagging in other agricultural purchases. U.S. farmers and commodity groups are urging both countries to reach a more stable, enforceable agreement that improves market access and reduces tariffs on American farm products. Leaders from the Iowa Corn Growers Association, U.S. Soybean Export Council, and American Soybean Association say farmers need greater certainty and predictability in trade with China, as reported by Agri-Pulse. However, analysts told Reuters that a major new agricultural deal appears unlikely.

Environmental Group Sues EPA for Dicamba Records

The Center for Biological Diversity filed a federal lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency, according to the National Agricultural Law Center. The suit claims the EPA failed to release records the group requested under the Freedom of Information Act about its decision to allow over-the-top use of the herbicide dicamba on dicamba-resistant soybeans and cotton during the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons. Dicamba, a herbicide prone to volatilization and off-target drift, was approved for over-the-top application on dicamba-resistant crops in 2016. Since then, federal courts have twice vacated EPA approvals for those uses, most recently in 2024. Despite those rulings, EPA announced in February that it would once again permit over-the-top dicamba applications for the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons. Before that decision, the Center for Biological Diversity submitted multiple FOIA requests seeking documents related to dicamba and EPA’s Office of Chemical Safety and Pollution Prevention. The lawsuit claims EPA improperly withheld records and asks the court to compel the agency to release the requested documents.

DMI Board Selects New President and CEO to Lead Checkoff

Dairy Management Inc. has named Corey Scott as its next president and CEO. Scott will become the third leader in the organization’s history, succeeding Barbara O’Brien, who will retire following the 2026 Joint Annual Meeting in October. Scott currently serves as president and CEO of Midwest Dairy, where she oversees dairy checkoff programs across a 10-state region. She previously held leadership roles with Athian and Land O’Lakes. In her new role with DMI, she will lead more than 150 employees on behalf of more than 23,000 dairy farmers and dairy importers, while also serving as president and CEO of the Innovation Center for U.S. Dairy. “America's dairy farmers have built one of the most respected and successful checkoff organizations in agriculture, and I am honored by the opportunity to serve them,” Scott said. “The work of the dairy checkoff remains critical to growing dairy demand, connecting with today’s consumers and creating new opportunities for the next generation of farmers and importers.” O’Brien is retiring after a 25-year career with DMI.

NFU Opposes Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern Rail Merger

National Farmers Union is opposing the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, urging the Surface Transportation Board to reject the deal. NFU argues the merger would give a single railroad control of nearly half of U.S. rail traffic and further reduce competition in an already consolidated industry. “History has shown us that when railroads consolidate, family farmers pay the price,” said NFU President Rob Larew. “Decades of mergers have left farmers with fewer options, higher rates, and less reliable service.” NFU says farmers are already facing financial pressure from high input costs, uncertain trade policies, and rising transportation expenses. The organization says less rail competition could lead to higher shipping rates and poorer service for agricultural shippers. As part of its policy priorities, NFU supports stronger Surface Transportation Board oversight, enforcement of antitrust laws to prevent additional rail mergers, and competition.

Sorghum Celebrates Outstanding Achievement Awardees

National Sorghum Producers presented Dr. Scott Bean and Dr. Brent Bean with the Outstanding Achievement Award in Sorghum Improvement. Scott Bean has spent three decades advancing the industry’s knowledge of sorghum proteins and how they can evolve in processing. His work has connected scientific research to real-world applications, giving breeders and processors better tools to evaluate sorghum. “Much of Scott’s research focused on sorghum proteins and how they change during processing. He helped explain how starch influences food quality, digestibility, and fermentation,” NSP CEO Tim Lust said. “That science supports use in many different areas, especially in the gluten-free foods industry.” Brent Bean spent four decades turning agronomic research into practical solutions for farmers. His work guided growers through crises, especially during the 2013 sugarcane aphid outbreak. “When I look back at Dr. Bean’s career… this continues to be a passion of his today: talking about growth stages, heat units, and what it really looks like from a crop standpoint,” Lust said.

Wheat Harvest Nears Finish with Strong Quality

Harvest of the 2026 hard red spring and northern durum wheat crops is nearing completion, with only a limited number of fields remaining in northern growing regions. The latest Harvest Report from U.S. Wheat Associations says current samples indicate generally strong quality. The hard red spring harvest is 95% complete in North Dakota and Montana. Average protein is 14.7%, above the five-year average. However, test weight and kernel size are slightly below average due to growing season stress in some areas. Northern durum harvest is 95% complete in Montana and 87% complete in North Dakota. Protein levels remain above last year and the five-year average. Recent rainfall affected color and vitreous kernel levels in some areas, but overall quality remains solid. Meanwhile, USDA reports about 20% of the 2027/28 winter wheat crop has been planted, and 5% has emerged.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Friday looks to be a quiet end to the week for reports, USDA has a series of updates being released at 2 p.m. CDT, such as the monthly Cold Storage report as well as the monthly Poultry Slaughter report. Afterwards at 2:30 p.m. CDT, CFTC will release the Commitments of Traders report, wrapping up the week with a look into trader positions as of Tuesday, September 22.

Weather

A zone of showers continues to build across the South-Central U.S. from New Mexico up into Iowa on Friday morning. This zone will continue to be active throughout most of the day, creating some areas of heavy rain and potential for localized flooding. A system will also be moving from the Pacific Northwest into the Canadian Prairies with strong winds, but minimal precipitation. 

Trump Administration Weighs Diesel Export Ban

Record-high diesel prices are pressuring farmers heading into harvest, and the Trump administration is considering whether restricting diesel exports could provide relief. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says officials are examining whether a full or partial export ban is feasible. Reuters added that President Donald Trump has called for stopping some diesel exports. AAA data put the national average diesel price at more than six dollars and fifty cents a gallon this week, up sharply from a year ago. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley and Representative Ashley Hinson are among lawmakers calling for an export ban, saying high fuel costs are hurting farmers.  But energy analysts warn the impact may not last. They say limiting exports could cause refiners to cut production, potentially tightening supplies and pushing prices higher later. The American Petroleum Institute also opposes an export ban. The Institute said restricting diesel exports would wreak havoc on markets at home and abroad. 

High Diesel Prices Could Persist Into 2027

Farmers could be facing elevated diesel prices well into 2027, adding another challenge for producers already struggling with tight margins. Gregg Ibendahl (EYE-ben-dahl), a farm management specialist with Kansas State University Extension, says soaring crude oil prices, limited refining capacity, and disruptions to global fuel supplies are keeping diesel prices high. He says international conflicts could keep prices in the six-to-seven-dollar-per-gallon range through next year or longer. Ibendahl says resolving global tensions and restoring normal international fuel shipments would be the most effective way to address pump prices. The Kansas Reflector said even under a best-case scenario, it could take months for markets to adjust. “Even in a best-case scenario, where the war in Ukraine winds down quickly, and shipments through the Gulf normalize, it could easily take six months for the market to adjust,” Ibendahl said. He said returning to earlier price levels could take up to two years.

ASTA Reminds Farmers About Treated Seed Safety During Harvest

As harvest gets underway across the country, the American Seed Trade Association is reminding farmers to take precautions to keep treated seed out of the grain supply. Seed treatments help protect seeds and seedlings from early-season insects and diseases, supporting stronger stands, healthier plants, and improved yields. But ASTA says proper handling is important throughout the seed’s life cycle, including removing treated seed from containers and equipment used to handle harvested grain. Andy LaVigne (lah-VEEN), ASTA president and CEO, says treated seed can be an important investment in crop production when handled responsibly. “Strong harvests are built long before the combine ever enters the field,” LaVigne said. “When used and handled responsibly, treated seeds are one of the most effective, economical tools a farmer has to protect yield from the ground up.” ASTA and other groups offer educational resources covering the treatment, handling, transportation, and planting of treated seed.

Ethanol Production Falls To Four-Month Low

U.S. ethanol production fell sharply last week, while inventories also tightened, according to Energy Information Administration data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association. For the week ending September 18, ethanol production dropped 6.5 percent to 1.03 million barrels per day, or about 43.2 million gallons daily. That was the lowest weekly production rate since early May, although output remained slightly above year-ago levels and 7.2 percent above the five-year average. Ethanol stocks declined 2.1 percent to 24.7 million barrels, their lowest level in seven weeks. Inventories remained above both last year and the five-year average. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market edged higher but remained below year-ago and five-year-average levels. Meanwhile, ethanol exports fell 24.2 percent to 122,000 barrels per day. Refiner and blender ethanol inputs also declined, reaching their lowest level in ten weeks.

Airbnb Offers Grants To Help Farmers Expand Into Agritourism

Farmers interested in agritourism will have a new source of financial assistance through a partnership between Airbnb and American Farmland Trust. The groups are launching a grant program designed to help farmers prepare their properties for overnight guests or launch agritourism experiences. Grants will range up to $10,000 and are available to farmers across the country. Eligible projects could include renovating farm properties for guests or developing activities such as apple picking, wine tasting, farm-to-table dinners, and agricultural workshops. Airbnb and American Farmland Trust will also offer webinars covering how farmers can create listings or experiences, welcome their first guests, and build a long-term agritourism business. Airbnb says the additional income can help farmers remain on their land during difficult seasons. The partnership comes as farmers face rising input costs, unpredictable weather, and volatile commodity markets, creating greater interest in alternative sources of farm income.

Compeer Financial Awards $446,000 In Ag Education Grants

Nearly 70 middle and high schools across the Midwest are receiving more than $446,000 in grants from Compeer Financial to strengthen agricultural education programs. The Next A.C.R.E. grants awarded up to $7,500 to each recipient, with 21 schools in Illinois, 21 in Minnesota, and 27 in Wisconsin receiving funding. The money will support equipment, resources, and improvements for hands-on learning, including greenhouses, shops, and livestock barns. Several schools also plan to add emerging technologies like virtual welding, CNC plasma equipment, precision ag sensors, and veterinary and livestock simulators. Karen Schieler, manager of Compeer Giving at Compeer Financial, says keeping agricultural education current is important as technology continues to reshape the industry. “We hope this funding inspires students to pursue a career in agriculture where they can make a lasting impact on their local communities and the world,” Schieler said. Compeer Financial plans to offer the Next A.C.R.E. grant program again in 2027.

Belarus Potash Proposal Raises Questions About Supply And Cost

The Trump administration’s proposal to purchase potash from Belarus (BELL-ah-roos) is raising questions about the cost and logistics of supplying U.S. farmers. President Donald Trump said Monday the United States is working on a “massive deal” to buy Belarusian potash at a price substantially below what the U.S. currently pays Canada. Canada supplies roughly 80 percent of U.S. potash imports. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe questioned whether Belarusian potash could actually be cheaper, noting Belarus is landlocked, and shipments would need to move through Russia before reaching the United States. Belarus has also faced sanctions and lost its main export route through Lithuania, adding to transportation challenges. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (loo-kah-SHEN-koh) has said his country resumed potash sales to the United States after Washington eased sanctions on Belarusian producers. However, it remains unclear how significantly Belarus could increase shipments to the U.S. For farmers, the proposal could provide another potential source of a key fertilizer nutrient.

Farmers Differ On Benefits Of Artificial Intelligence

Farmers in the United States and Argentina have sharply different views about the benefits of artificial intelligence and other data-driven tools in agriculture. A recent Purdue University survey found 23 percent of U.S. producers identified increased production as the main benefit of AI. In comparison, 14 percent cited reduced labor and 11 percent pointed to reduced risk or uncertainty. More than half, 52 percent, said they saw no meaningful benefit for their operation. Argentine farmers were more positive. Increased production accounted for 37 percent of responses, followed by reduced risk or uncertainty at 28 percent, and reduced labor at 14 percent. Just 21 percent reported no meaningful benefit. The researchers say differences in survey design mean the comparison should be viewed cautiously. They also note that U.S. farmers may question whether AI recommendations are practical to follow, with 63 percent saying recommendations would sometimes be difficult to implement.

Financial Pressure Persists For Corn And Soybean Farmers

A new survey of corn and soybean farmers finds financial pressure remains high despite recent improvements in commodity prices. The National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association report nearly two-thirds of growers are moderately or very concerned about the farm economy. Forty-six percent say they are more concerned about their farm financial situation than they were a year ago. The survey of 1,200 farmers, conducted by Farm Journal, found that recent grain price improvements have not eliminated concerns about high input costs. Growers also say expectations for the 2026 crop leave little room to absorb additional increases in production expenses. NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson says stronger corn prices can improve sentiment, but farm profitability doesn’t reset with one market move or crop year. ASA Chief Economist Scott Gerlt says the results show how little margin for error farmers have, noting the cost of putting a crop in the ground remains high.

Dairy Checkoff Targets Families Through Consumer Campaigns

The dairy checkoff is using two national consumer strategies to keep dairy in front of families during key moments in their daily lives. Dairy Management Incorporated is activating its We Are Family and First 1,000 Days programs through the fall. We Are Family connects with families during meal planning and grocery shopping, while First 1,000 Days focuses on parents during pregnancy and the earliest years of a child’s life. DMI Chair Marilyn Hershey says reaching consumers means being relevant to their lives and meeting them where they are. She says the programs reach parents while they’re planning meals, shopping for their families, or thinking about nutrition for their children. Now in its third year, We Are Family runs through October and reaches consumers through retail-connected media at Walmart, Costco, and, for the first time, Sam’s Club. The strategy uses digital and social media, video and creator content to reach families.

Sugar Alliance Says Outdated Tariffs Hurt U.S. Producers

The American Sugar Alliance says sugar markets are heavily distorted by government subsidies and trade protections, creating challenges for U.S. producers. The group points to Brazil, India, and Thailand, which account for about 70 percent of global sugar exports, and says their government support can encourage production beyond domestic demand. The alliance says surplus sugar can enter world markets at prices below production costs. The group says that has consequences for American sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers. It estimates producers have lost more than $3 billion in potential income over the past two years because of subsidized, over-quota foreign sugar. U.S. sugar imports are managed through tariff-rate quotas, with duties applied above imports over the quota amounts. USDA data confirms the U.S. system includes over-quota tariffs. The alliance says those tariffs have not been updated in 26 years and is calling for them to be modernized to reflect current conditions.

Sorghum Producers Seek China Trade Certainty

The National Sorghum Producers is asking the Trump administration to make U.S. sorghum a priority during next week’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24. In a letter, the group called for sorghum to be included among non-sensitive goods covered by a proposed U.S.-China Board of Trade. It also wants China to eliminate its ten percent retaliatory duty on U.S. sorghum and establish an enforceable annual purchase commitment of five million to seven million metric tons. NSP also urged the administration to ensure Section 301 port fees on Chinese vessels don’t increase shipping costs or disrupt agricultural exports. The group says China has historically purchased close to 80 percent of U.S. sorghum exports, making that market important to growers. NSP Chair Amy France says farmers need purchase commitments that result in actual sales and grain moving from U.S. farms to China.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA will release their weekly Petroleum Status report at 9:30 a.m. CDT on Wednesday morning, offering a look into energy fundamentals for the week ending September 18. There are no other major reports scheduled, and traders will continue to watch for geopolitical updates as well as field level reports from the early stages of U.S. harvest.

Weather

Some showers remain possible across Ohio and into the Southeast on Wednesday, but the main focus is on the Plains where a zone of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be growing throughout the day, especially overnight. Some areas of heavy rain will be possible, with the short-term focus on New Mexico. 

Farm Production Costs Rise Faster Than Crop Prices Since 2018 Farm Bill

The farm economy has changed significantly since the 2018 farm bill, with production costs rising faster than the prices farmers receive for their crops. A recent study from multiple farm groups shows that the prices-paid index for crop production inputs climbed more than 38 percent from July 2018 through July 2026, while the prices-received index for crop products increased about 24 percent. That widening gap means higher commodity prices don't translate into stronger farm margins. As input costs rise faster than product values, break-even prices increase and producers have less room to absorb market declines or unexpected expenses. Farmers and ranchers have also faced higher interest rates, rising equipment and farmland costs, and increasing farm debt. Higher land values have strengthened balance sheets, but they also raise costs for beginning farmers and those looking to expand. The changes demonstrate the need for a new farm bill that reflects today's higher costs, greater capital requirements, and increased risks.

Cattle on Feed Report Placements Below Expectations

August cattle placements came in well below expectations in the latest Cattle on Feed Report, signaling a potential shift in the cattle market as fewer animals move into feedlots. Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel says August marked the second-straight month of sharply lower placements. Placements fell 9.2 percent from a year ago, while marketings declined 3.3 percent. The September 1 on-feed total was 11.2 million head, seven-tenths of a percent above last year. Peel says the larger on-feed number has been driven by marketings falling faster than placements. He expects that to change in the coming months. “I expect that we’ll get the on-feed total back below a year ago here in the next couple of months and be that way for some period of time,” Peel says. The August placement figure also fell below the entire range of pre-report estimates. Peel says the unexpected decline could be bullish for cattle markets.

China’s U.S. Farm Purchases Remain Slow

China’s purchases of U.S. agricultural products remain well below the pace needed to meet a recently announced trade commitment. The White House said in May that China would purchase at least 17 billion dollars of U.S. farm goods annually through 2028, with the 2026 target prorated. Soybeans were excluded from that figure because China separately pledged to increase soybean purchases, However, Agriculture Department data show China bought just 3.9 billion dollars of U.S. agricultural products, excluding soybeans, during the first seven months of 2026. Bloomberg said that was only slightly more than the same period last year, when purchases were at a six-year low. “As we look back over the last several years, we’ve had inconsistencies,” said National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust. “It’s been really good at times, and it’s been really slow at times. So that’s one of the things that we’re hopeful out of this, that we get that more consistent trade volume.”