President Donald Trump signed two executive orders on Thursday postponing tariffs for products arriving from Mexico and Canada that are covered by a North American trade pact by a month, while lowering the duty to be applied to potash imports. Anything that was covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is exempt from the 25% tariff, until April 2, a White House official reports, including potash. There’s still the 10% energy tariff referring to the lower duty applied to Canadian energy exports. The president has also decided to reduce the duty rate that will apply to Canadian potash after April 2 to 10%. A senior administration official told reporters in the Oval Office that the decision was to protect American farmers. Around 38% of U.S. imports from Canada are covered by the USMCA agreement, while roughly half of those from Mexico are eligible, a senior administration official told reporters.
Welcome
Monday, March 10, 2025
Global Demand Forecasts for U.S. Crops to Factor in Tariffs in Effect, USDA Says
A monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report due this week will consider trade policies in place when the forecasts for grains and soybeans are issued, an agency official said on Thursday, as President Donald Trump suspended tariffs he imposed this week on Canada and Mexico. Grain traders and farmers will look closely at how USDA adjusts its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, due on March 11, as tariffs have fueled worries the U.S. will lose export markets for farm products. The nation relies on exports and competes with rival suppliers, such as Brazil, for global sales of crops like corn and soybeans. Trump on Thursday exempted goods from Canada and Mexico under a North American trade pact for a month from the 25% tariffs that he had implemented, the latest twist in fast-shifting trade policy. The president has also imposed tariffs of 20% on all imports from China, prompting Beijing to retaliate against American agricultural and food products.
New South Dakota Law Prohibits Use of Eminent Domain for CO2 Pipelines
South Dakota’s governor has signed a bill prohibiting use of eminent domain for pipelines carrying carbon dioxide, throwing a wrench into Summit Carbon Solutions' project to build a pipeline carrying liquefied carbon dioxide to a sequestration site in North Dakota. The new law injects uncertainty into Summit’s plans, which include 2,500 miles of pipeline through Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota and the Dakotas that would carry liquefied carbon dioxide from 57 ethanol plants. The project aims to lower the carbon intensity scores of participating ethanol plants, which could help them qualify for federal and state incentives. A federal tax incentive offers $85/ton for permanently stored CO2.
Texas Farmers Hustle to Plant Corn While Winter Wheat and Oats Begin Heading
Progress is being made planting corn in parts of Texas, and winter wheat and oats headed are being reported. Some corn has already been planted in parts of Texas. Rain in the forecast as March began pushed growers in central Texas to begin planting their corn crop in order to take advantage of the moisture. Central Texas saw a high level of activity this week to get corn planted before the rain arrived. The Texas Crop Progress report said that much of Texas experienced dry, windy weather during the week of Feb. 24–March 3. Rainfall ranged from trace amounts up to one inch with the Blacklands and the Upper Coast receiving the most rain, USDA reported. For those that didn’t get their corn planted before the rain fell, they will now need to wait for things to dry out to get their equipment in the fields.
Trade Groups Applaud Renewable Fuel for Ocean-Going Vessels Act
Clean Fuels Alliance America and other groups representing agriculture and maritime fleets thanked Senate and House champions for introducing the bipartisan Renewable Fuel for Ocean-Going Vessels Act. Sens. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) sponsored the legislation in the Senate. Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), John Garamendi (D-CA) and six others sponsored identical legislation in the House of Representatives. The legislation designates renewable fuel used in ocean-going vessels as an “additional renewable fuel” eligible for credit under the Renewable Fuel Standard. It will enable companies to preserve Renewable Identification Number credits (RINs) in the RFS program when renewable fuel is used in certain maritime vessels. “Global shipping companies are looking to U.S. farmers and fuel producers to take the lead in providing clean fuels,” said Kurt Kovarik, Vice President of Federal Affairs for Clean Fuels. “This commonsense legislation will remove a regulatory roadblock and enable U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel producers in partnership with soy and canola growers to meet the needs of shipping companies at a competitive price. It will allow refiners and blenders to keep RFS credits for fuel used in ocean-going vessels that are currently being sacrificed.”
Bacon Sales Up Over Past 12 Months
Bacon has experienced modest growth across the last year fueled mainly by an increase in retail prices. Over the past year, the bacon category has seen solid growth, with units up more than 2% and sales rising over 2.7%, according to Circana. That’s faster than the overall edible sales growth of 0% in units and 1.9% in dollars. It shows bacon dollar and unit sales are positive across the category, with the natural channels leading category growth. At the retail level, the banners that are embracing the “better for you” trends and including more of these SKUs in their bacon set have realized higher lift in their sets vs. those who have not. Melissa Myres, director of insights for data marketing company 84.51°, noted despite shopper’s concerns over inflation, more than 1 in 3 households purchased bacon at least once in 2024. “In some food categories, consumers state that they are buying in bulk and in larger sizes to save money, though for bacon, the smaller pack sizes—under 16 ounces—are growing at a faster rate than the larger pack sizes,” she said.
Monday Watch List
Markets
Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT
No other major economic reports scheduled.
Weather
Well above normal temperatures are building east of the Rockies on Monday. Though a cold front will move into the Northern Plains later Monday, it should remain dry. The only showers are found across the Southeast with a departing disturbance.