USDA Says Corn Acres Up 5% in 2025

U.S. farmers will plant nearly 5 million more corn acres in 2025 compared with last year. In its 2025 Prospective Plantings report released Monday, the agency pegged corn acres for the 2025/2026 crop year at 95.3 million. This was up 5% from last year and above the average trade expectation. Soybean acres projected below last year at 83.5 million acres, below last year and the average trade expectation. Wheat acres were also pegged lower year-over-year at 45.4 million acres, below the trade expectation of 46.5. USDA also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Corn stocks were in line with the average trade expectation and lower year-over-year. Soybeans and wheat, however, were higher than the average trade expectations and higher year-over-year. Jeremy McCann, account manager with Farmer’s Keeper, told Successful Farming, “Immediately after the report, old crop corn and wheat seem to be the only markets getting a positive bounce.”

Big Week for Tariffs; GOP Leaders Seek Path for Budget Bill

President Donald Trump this week is set to unveil his reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Trump says Wednesday is the “big one” for his next move on trade policy, but it’s unclear how broad the new reciprocal duties will be, based on recent messaging from the administration. The tariffs are supposed to vary depending on the size of the barriers the target country imposes on U.S. exports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested earlier this month that the initial tranche of reciprocal duties could focus on just 15 trade partners with which the U.S. has persistent trade deficits. But Trump told reporters last week that this week’s tariff announcement would, in fact, cover every country. New, secondary tariffs on countries buying oil and gas from Venezuela could also be on the table, according to a Trump Truth Social post last week. Whatever comes, some trade partners are already signaling they’re ready to respond.

Can Broiler Eggs Help Table Egg Prices?

There have been over 20 million commercial table/shell egg laying hens lost already in 2025 alone due to High Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Losses have impacted egg supply and prices have spiked. As a stopgap measure to boost egg supplies, it has been suggested that surplus eggs from broiler hatcheries could be transferred into the egg products market, replacing shell eggs that could then be sold as fresh, helping lower prices. The surplus broiler eggs come from the occasional over-supply of hatching eggs not being able to be set to hatch. They are currently used for animal feed products or often simply disposed of. It is estimated by the National Chicken Council that there would be an annual surplus of “…almost 400 million broiler eggs (going) into the egg breaking supply each year. Total table egg production for 2024 over 93 billion eggs. The surplus broiler egg supply, it could provide an additional 33.6 million eggs per month, or about 0.4% of the monthly total. 

Some Texas Corn Farmers May Switch to Planting Cotton Due to Dry Conditions

Although corn and sorghum planting continues to progress across Texas, agronomists suggest that some farmers might switch from planting acres in corn and sorghum to cotton this year amidst continuing drought. In West Central Texas, Reagan Noland, an assistant professor and extension agronomist for Texas A&M University, said both corn and sorghum acreage will be extremely limited this year due to dry conditions and depleted irrigation water supplies. Noland said it is a possibility for farmers to still plant grain sorghum through mid-April, but it’s not likely unless it starts raining soon. Instead of growing dryland grain sorghum, Noland said many growers are likely to change plans and grow cotton instead as a result of the continued drought conditions in the region. “We haven’t received any rain in March,” Noland said, “and rainfall over the past several months has been very marginal.”

UK Detects First Case of Bird Flu in a Sheep, Stoking Fears of Spread

Bird flu has been detected in a sheep in northern England, the first known case of its kind in the world, Britain’s government said, adding to the growing list of mammals infected by the disease and fueling fears of a pandemic. Many different mammals have died of the H5N1 bird flu virus across the globe including bears, cats, dairy cows, dogs, dolphins, seals and tigers. The case was identified following routine surveillance of farmed livestock on a premises in Yorkshire where highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) had been confirmed in other captive birds, Britain’s government. There have been cases among humans which have ranged in severity from no symptoms to, in rare cases, death. But there has not yet been any confirmed transmission between humans.

Estimating the Impact of Low Mississippi River Levels on Soybean Basis in the Midsouth

Extreme weather events, like drought, jointly impact agricultural production and rural infrastructure, including transportation infrastructure. An important part of this transportation infrastructure is the Mississippi River. It serves as one of the most critical networks for moving agricultural commodities. Soybeans, the leading U.S. agricultural export, rely heavily on barge transportation, with 53 percent of exports moved by barge. Despite this reliance on barges for moving U.S. grain, little is known about the link between extreme weather, rural transportation infrastructure, and crop prices. Record-low water levels increased transportation costs and barge freight rates. Higher transportation costs are transmitted to row crop producers through lower cash bids or a weakening of local crop basis. Historic lows in Mississippi River levels during the fall harvest of the last three years have highlighted the need to measure the impact of these low river levels on rural infrastructure and communities. When the river stream gauge in Memphis, Tennessee reads -5 feet, Arkansas soybean basis weakens (widens) by $0.58 per bushel.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

ISM Manufacturing Index for March at 9 a.m. CDT

USDA Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushing Report for February at 2 p.m. CDT

USDA Grain Crushings and Co-Products Report for February at 2.p.m. CDT

Weather

Another strong storm system is moving into the Plains on Tuesday. A mix of rain and snow has already formed across the north and will spread into the Upper Midwest for Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Central and Southern Plains, getting into the southwestern Midwest as well. Strong winds will form in the Plains, drying out soils where the rain doesn't fall and potentially leading to blowing dust and spreading wildfires.