Grocery stores and gas pumps are important inflation indicators. While inflationary concerns have been persistent in recent years, the back and forth regarding tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the tariffs on Chinese goods, have prompted additional concerns about prices. Results from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey find most consumers across both political parties expect tariffs to increase the prices they pay for food. This was highest for Democratic voters as 85.4 percent expected prices to increase, while 74.6 percent of Republican participants and 74 percent of Independent/Other participants also expected prices to rise. Results show that consumers are bracing for the impact. Just over 77 percent of participants responded that they are either somewhat or very worried about tariffs, and those who are worried about tariffs’ impacts on food prices are also pessimistic about short-term inflation, expecting inflation to get worse over the next few months.
Welcome
Tuesday, March 11, 2025
China Turns Tariff Attention to Canada
China recently responded to the U.S. increasing tariffs by increasing retaliating against American imports, and now, the Southeast Asian nation is turning its attention to Canada. China implemented tariffs on more than $2.6 billion worth of agricultural and food products from Canada. Reuters says the move is retaliation against levies Ottawa introduced in October 2024 and opens a new front in a global trade war. The levies announced by the commerce ministry will take effect on March 20 and match the 100 percent and 25 percent tariffs Canada placed on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products just four months ago. The tariffs could be a warning shot as the Trump administration showed it may be willing to ease 25 percent duties on Canadian and Mexican goods if they apply the same extra 20 percent duty he has slapped on Chinese goods over the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.
Clean Fuels Disappointed with RFS Delays
Clean Fuels Alliance America expressed frustration over ongoing delays in the Renewable Fuel Standard program. The Environmental Protection Agency finalized a rule to delay compliance with the 2024 RFS standards. The compliance deadline would have fallen on March 31. The rule also updates the definition of “biodiesel” in the program to reference the most recent quality specifications. “The biomass-based diesel industry needs policy certainty that supports our continued growth and contributions to America’s energy security,” says Kurt Kovarik, Clean Fuels VP of Federal Affairs. “In response to the proposed waiver of cellulosic volumes, Clean Fuels asked the EPA to make decisions on outstanding small refinery exemptions to assess the political impact on 2024 RIN availability.” It’s also frustrating that the EPA is delaying important program decisions and adding to the uncertainty for the entire industry. Last year, Clean Fuels petitioned the EPA to reconsider its low diesel volumes for 2024 and 2025.
Thousands of Farmers Call for Immediate Action on E15
A letter signed by 9,000 corn growers and advocates from 47 states was sent to House and Senate leadership last week on year-round E15. The letter urges Congress to remove an obsolete federal policy preventing the sale of E15 during the summer months. “A legislative solution for consumers to access year-round E15 comes at no cost yet would provide critical support to our nation’s energy sector, overdue relief for American families, and provide necessary economic security to rural communities,” the letter said. “Standardizing year-round E15 will increase corn demand by about 2.3 billion bushels per year.” NCGA also says that considering about one-third of the corn produced in the U.S. is used for ethanol production, this demand creation will result in an impressive improvement in profitability for operations across the nation, and rural communities will reap the benefits. Congress fell short of an E15 fix late last year.
Rollins Surveys Damage in North Carolina
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins surveyed damage from natural disasters and met with U.S. Forest Service members in western North Carolina last week. Recent wildfires and hurricanes have caused significant destruction throughout the region. During her visit, the secretary toured the Blue Ridge Parkway to witness the devastation left by Hurricane Helene. She then received a wildfire operational briefing and participated in a U.S. Forest Service Roundtable with local leaders in Asheville, North Carolina. “I met with North Carolina residents who have suffered unimaginable loss from recent natural disasters,” Rollins said. “The U.S. Forest Service was well-prepared, assessing wildfire risks in advance and strategically positioning resources to respond quickly.” As a result, she said they were able to rapidly contain the wildfires. “USDA continues working closely with state and local agencies and first responders to support these communities and restore the public lands that many rural residents depend on,” she added.
Deadline Approaching for Peru Trade Trip
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is still accepting applications for its agribusiness trade mission to Peru, scheduled for June 9-12, 2025. The deadline is this week. Current and potential U.S. exporters interested in participating must apply by this Wednesday, March 12. “Consumers in Peru are eager to stock their shelves with world-class food and farm products,” says FAS Administrator Daniel Whitely. “This mission will offer a unique opportunity for U.S. exporters to meet that growing demand.” He also says the mission will help the U.S. agricultural community establish meaningful partnerships and unlock new avenues for growth in South America. Peru is the third-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports in South America. Since the U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement, bilateral agricultural trade has risen from $1.46 billion to $5 billion in 2023, a 242 percent increase. In that same year, the U.S. was Peru’s second-largest agricultural supplier, with a 13 percent market share.
Tuesday Watch List
Markets
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report at 11 a.m. CDT
Crop Production Report 11 a.m. CDT
Weather
Relatively quiet conditions are forecast for Tuesday, with the only real precipitation expected in the far Southwest. Though readings took a step back across the north from a passing cold front, temperatures are still awfully warm for most areas east of the Rockies for March.