Tuesday Watch List

Markets

There are no significant reports due out Tuesday, but traders may be thinking ahead to Thursday when the Labor Department releases its morning report on consumer prices in June or to Friday when USDA has its next WASDE report. Traders will keep track of what used to be Tropical Storm Beryl as it brings rain to the Eastern Corn Belt.

Weather

Tropical Depression Beryl will continue to move across the Central Mississippi Valley and enter the Eastern Midwest Tuesday, providing areas of severe storms and heavy rainfall from southeast Missouri into Ohio.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Beryl Barrels in, WASDE Friday

1. Hurricane and floods: As of early Sunday morning, Tropical Storm Beryl was forecast to intensify as a hurricane again as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico, especially right before landfall early Monday morning on the Texas coastline. The National Weather Service stated after it moves inland, Beryl will accelerate farther northeastward and become a post-tropical cyclone. Heavy rainfall of 5-10 inches is expected, with localized amounts up to 15 inches, across parts of mid to upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas starting Sunday through Monday night, leading to flooding concerns. Beryl's rainfall is then projected Monday into Tuesday to be 3-5 inches for parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. The exact track is a bit uncertain for this week, although at this time Beryl appears to then go through the Ohio River Valley and then the northeast. Depending on the path, the National Weather Service said this could lead to flash flooding in areas of the Corn Belt that already had several inches of rain in the last few days, or have a more heavy impact on the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers and tributaries. Southern portions of the Missouri River and tributaries are already continuing to rise as floodwaters move south from the Dakota/Minnesota and Nebraska/Iowa areas. Meanwhile, much of the West is under heat advisories or excessive heat warnings, with scorching triple-digit temperatures lasting into early this week. Hot weather is forecast to spread through the week across the northern tier of states while the South-Central stays on the milder end of temperatures.

2.Strategy updates delayed: Due to the Independence Day holiday schedule, which delayed the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, the DTN Six Factors Strategies will get their full weekly update Monday afternoon. That CFTC data is a critical piece of our tracking of noncommercial traders, or "specs" activity, which is one of the six key market factors in our analysis. Don't have access to our Six Factors view? Become a DTN subscriber here: 3. WASDE Friday: July 12 is the July Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. Watch midweek for our preview of the reports, as soon as market analyst expectations reports are in. There we'll review the numbers traders expect to see and add our own analysis. WASDE report coverage begins Friday right after the 11 a.m. reports release, and we'll have updates throughout the morning. Our free webinar on the reports, featuring DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, goes live at 12:30 p.m. 

4. Crop Progress Monday: We'll pay special attention to this Monday's USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress report to see how rains, dryness and flooding have affected various crops, and we'll also see the latest on the 2024 wheat harvest.

5. Economic reports to watch: Monday we'll see the 9 a.m. release of Grain Inspections. At 10 a.m. we expect the Survey of Consumer Expectations, followed by 2 p.m. release of Consumer Credit and U.S. Ag Trade Update from ERS. At 2:30 p.m., the delayed CFTC Commitment of Traders report is out (with our Six Factors Strategies update soon following). At 3 p.m. we'll have the USDA weekly Crop Progress report, with our analysis of that soon after.

There are no official economic or markets reports Tuesday. Wednesday sees 9:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status report, including ethanol production and stocks. At 2 p.m. we'll see latest Broiler Hatchery numbers. Thursday markets will reflect on 7:30 a.m. Grain Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI. At 10:30 a.m., the Weekly Economic Index hits. At 1 p.m. we'll see monthly U.S. Federal Budget numbers. Friday starts with 7:30 a.m. release of Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Core CPI. At 9 a.m. we'll see the Consumer Sentiment report. At 11 a.m., the USDA Crop Production report and July WASDE is out, followed by 2:30 p.m. release of the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will check the latest weather forecasts as the U.S. corn crop gets closer to pollination time. USDA's report of weekly export inspections is at 10 a.m. CDT Monday, followed by the weekly Crop Progress report at 3 p.m. The latest week of CFTC data will be released at 2:30 p.m. CDT.

Weather

Hurricane Beryl made landfall between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas, early Monday morning and is expected to quickly weaken as it moves north. Eventually, the remnants of the storm will reach across the Lower Mississippi Valley later Monday, providing areas of heavy rainfall to Arkansas and Louisiana.

More Reaction to USDA FMMO Modernization Proposal

USDA proposed amendments to all 11 Federal Milk Marketing Orders, and national ag groups shared their reaction, including the American Farm Bureau. President Zippy Duvall says they’ve called for FMMO reform since 2021 and convened a successful first-of-its-kind industry-wide forum in 2022. “We’re pleased with the intent to return the Class 1 skim milk prices to the “higher-of” formula as we wanted,” Duvall says. Farm Bureau is disappointed in changes benefiting processors without regard for struggling dairy producers. Elsewhere, FarmFirst Dairy Cooperative in Madison, Wisconsin, says much of the reform the co-op advocated for appears in USDA’s recommendations. “What we’ve seen shows USDA has acknowledged what dairy farmers, cooperatives, and others have asked them to address for years,” says Sarah Sarbacker, director of communications and marketing. Gregg Doud, President of the National Milk Producers Federation, says not every detail is exactly what they wanted, but “we knew that would be the case.”

Smithfield Foods Closing its Iowa Facility

Smithfield Foods will close its Altoona, Iowa, ham boning facility and consolidate the production volume at other locations to improve the efficiency of its manufacturing platform. Smithfield says it will provide transition assistance to the 314 employees at the facility who will be affected by the closure. The company will meet with employees individually to provide additional details about the transition plans, including severance and potential employment opportunities with Smithfield. “We appreciate the great work our Altoona employees have done over the years and are committed to supporting every employee through the transition,” says Doug Sutton, chief manufacturing officer at Smithfield Foods. “We’ve been successful in retaining many of our people in positions with Smithfield during previous consolidations and will provide information about opportunities at other Smithfield locations.” Production from Smithfield’s Altoona facility will be consolidated into existing company facilities in Monmouth, Illinois, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and Crete, Nebraska.

U.S. Hog Inventory Up One Percent

The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1 was 74.5 million head. USDA says that was up one percent from June 1, 2023, and up slightly from March 1, 2024. Breeding inventory, at 6.01 million head, was down three percent from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 68.5 million head, was up two percent from last year and up slightly from last quarter. The March-May 2024 pig crop, at 34 million head, was up two percent from 2023. Sows farrowing during that period totaled 2.94 million head, up slightly from 2023. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average number of pigs per litter was 11.56 for March-May, compared to 11.36 last year. U.S. producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrow from June-August, down three percent from actual farrowings during the same time in 2023.

AEM Launches Manufacturing Challenge Game

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers embarked on its largest public engagement initiative in 130 years by introducing the “Manufacturing Challenge” on its “Manufacturing Express” bus tour. It’s an online video game that invites participants to tackle industry-themed questions for a chance to win prizes, including the grand prize of a Ford F-150. The game and the chance to win the grand prize are available to anyone in the continental U.S. who visits manufacturingexpress.org. “The Manufacturing Express tour will visit 80 communities at equipment manufacturing sites, showcasing the contributions of our industry’s workers to local economies and national prosperity,” says AEM President Megan Tanel. “The tour will engage local and regional policymakers to spotlight bipartisan policies crucial for supporting equipment manufacturing companies, their 2.3 million employees, and the industry’s annual $316 billion contribution to the U.S. economy.” The tour began on July 1 in Iowa and finishes in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, in November.