Midwest Weather Staying Warmer and Drier Than Normal

The Midwest Climate Hub says warm and dry was the theme during December in the North Central U.S. There have been exceptions, including a Christmas system that dropped multiple inches of precipitation in certain areas. The region saw both one and two-class improvements and degradations in drought status, and concerns are starting to weigh heavily on whether soil moisture will be recharged this winter. The next three to five months are expected to follow a typical El Niño weather pattern overall. That means temperatures will lean warmer for the region, and conditions will be drier for the northern and eastern states in the Midwest. It’s about the 180th week of D1 drought in parts of Iowa, which is the longest stretch since the 1950s. Exceptional drought continues in southeast Nebraska, with some places in exceptional drought for the past five months. Temps have been above normal for the last 30 days. 

ALB Holding Targeted Grazing Workshops

Paid grazing contracts present a tremendous opportunity for the growth of the U.S. sheep flock and improving the availability and price competitiveness of American lamb. It’s also an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through green energy production and biological vegetation management. Training is needed to ensure sheep producers are prepared to take advantage of these grazing contract opportunities. “Improving the sustainability of the U.S. sheep industry through profitable growth is a top priority of the American Lamb Board,” says ALB Chair Peter Camino (kah-MEE-know). “ALB is committed to ensuring new and experienced shepherds receive education and resources to become successful contract grazers.” ALB’s grazing workshops will outline new and existing opportunities through targeted grazing across the U.S., including fire suppression, vineyards, and solar grazing. From animal performance to contracts and business setup, the workshops will cover the information they need to be successful service providers. For more information, go to americanlambboard.com.

Millions of Birds Die During Two Years of Bird Flu

One-fourth of America’s bird flu losses during outbreaks beginning in early 2022 were recorded during the final quarter of 2023. USDA data says that’s when the disease staged a resurgence. Approximately 20.9 million birds were culled in infected domestic flocks from October through December to prevent the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Successful Farming says bird flu hit egg farmers so hard that prices in 2022 soared 32 percent above the average in 2021. That’s the largest increase for any food categories USDA tracked during a year of high food inflation. As flocks got rebuilt, egg prices rose marginally in 2023 and are expected to fall 12 percent this year. A total of 79.7 million domestic birds, mostly egg-laying hens and turkeys being raised for human consumption, died in HPAI outbreaks or eradication efforts since February 2022. Since then, the disease has been confirmed in 1,059 flocks in 47 states.

Top 5 Things to Watch - Winter Storm, WASDE and More

1. WASDE Friday: This week marks the release of several important USDA reports, including the "final" corn and soybean yield and production numbers of the 2023 U.S. crop season. The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report hits the wires at 11:00 a.m. We will post those numbers shortly after 11, with updates and analysis throughout the morning. Our preview expectations for the report will be available mid-week. 

2. Big storm coming: A broad winter storm rolls into the upper Plains early in the week. As DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick noted in his latest Ag Weather Forum blog, this is really the first concentrated monster storm of the season. Livestock health is one of the chief concerns, as this storm will be for some areas the first bitter taste of winter some animals will get. 

3. Speaking of weather: Grain traders continue to watch how South American crop conditions are shaping up, as that part of the world continues to be the market trend maker. We'll have updates in a number of spots, from the Ag Weather Forum blog to our daily market commentary. DTN customers should know that the latest global market conditions lead to us finishing up marketing of the 2023 corn crop this past week, while we continue to recommend holding a bit of soybean harvest. T

4. Cattle looking for news: A New Year uptick in cattle futures prices that started this past week ran out of gas by week's end. We'll watch for potential weather-driven trade disruption, though the general call is for steady prices in live trade and limited sales activity.

5. Economic reports to watch: On Monday, weekly grain inspections will be released at 10 a.m. The latest Consumer Credit report is out at 2 p.m. On Tuesday, the latest trade deficit numbers are at 7:30 a.m. Final field crop estimates will be released at 2 p.m. Wholesale inventories are out Wednesday at 9 a.m., with the weekly petroleum report at 10 a.m. That report includes ethanol production and inventory. On Thursday, economic attention turns to the Initial Jobless Claims report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI numbers, all due at 8:30 a.m. U.S. grain export sales will be released at 7:30 a.m., with Hogs and Pigs Final Estimates out at 2 p.m. Finally, Friday kicks off with the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI out at 7:30 a.m. At 11 a.m. is WASDE, January Crop Production, the Dec. 1 Grain Stocks numbers and winter wheat seedings.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Back from the weekend, traders will continue to monitor South American weather and Middle East tensions. USDA's weekly report of export inspections will be out at 10 a.m. CST, the only significant report on Monday.

Weather

A storm system has been building from Sunday night into early Monday across the Central and Southern Plains, bringing a mix of rain and snow to the region. The storm will turn into a monster by midday and shift to the Mississippi Valley overnight. Widespread impacts including severe weather across the Gulf Coast, heavy snow and blizzard conditions from the southwestern Plains to the Midwest with strong winds elsewhere, and flooding rain will create a host of issues for travel and anyone or anything that is outdoors.

Over 1,250 Producers Qualify Under Prop 12

The California Department of Food and Agriculture says there are more than 1,250 agricultural producers and distributors in compliance with Proposition 12. After multiple delays brought on by court challenges and the need for a Supreme Court ruling, Prop 12 is now in effect. The CDFA says the more than 1,250 producers are prepared the meet the state’s demand for cage-free eggs and crate-free pork after the measure took full effect on January 1. California voters initially approved Prop 12 in November 2018, with the provisions originally intended to be in place by January 2022. “Final implementation of Prop 12 not only provides the prospect of dramatically better living conditions for pigs in U.S. agriculture, but it also all provides a critical market for thousands of pig farmers who don’t rely on immobilizing crates as a routine animal-housing practice,” says Wayne Pacelle, a Prop 12 architect and president of Animal Wellness Action.

Missouri Bans Foreign Ownership of Some Farmland

Missouri Governor Mike Parson announced a ban on agricultural land purchases by citizens and businesses from six nations if the property is within ten miles of critical military facilities. Parson says he had countries like “China and other adversarial nations” in mind when issuing an executive order on the topic. The order puts the state Ag Department in charge of reviewing all proposed purchases of farmland by foreigners The Ag Department is to deny all proposed purchases within ten miles of military facilities by entities from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela. Missouri is the latest state to restrict foreign ownership of U.S. farmland amid rising international tensions. Arkansas recently ordered Syngenta, owned by ChemChina, to sell a 160-acre research farm. Foreign investors own 43.4 million acres, or 3.4 percent of privately-held agricultural land, which includes 474,000 acres in Missouri. The executive order doesn’t affect existing farmland ownership.