The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose six points in February to 125, matching the sentiment reading from December. A more optimistic view of future conditions pushed the sentiment measure higher as the Index of Future Expectations rose ten points in February to 122, the most positive reading regarding the future by farmers since last August. The Index of Current Conditions was virtually unchanged at 132, just one point below a month earlier. This month’s survey was conducted from February 14-18, before Russia invaded Ukraine. The survey found producers remain concerned about the spike in production costs leading them to expect weaker farm financial performance in 2022 than in 2021. Supply chain issues continue to hold back farmers’ plans for investments in farm machinery as well as buildings and grain bins. Also, one-third of corn producers in this month's survey said they plan to reduce their nitrogen application rate compared to the rate they used in 2021.
Welcome
Wednesday, March 2, 2022
Prolonged Fertilizer Disruptions Possible
Nutrien, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in prolonged disruptions of fertilizer supplies. In a report from Reuters, Interim Chief Executive Ken Seitz said Nutrien will boost potash production if it sees sustained supply problems in Russia and Belarus, the world's second-and third-largest potash producing countries after Canada. The comments come as farmers are already dealing with high fertilizer costs stemming from supply chain disruptions and natural gas prices. However, state corn organizations allege the price of fertilizer closely follows the price of corn, not natural gas. Speaking at the BMO Capital Markets investor conference, Seitz said, “We're going to run our plants, run them flat out,” adding,” Could we see interruptions in exports out of Russia? Yes. Can we see plant closures? We could." Nutrien expects to sell up to 14.3 million metric tons of potash this year, its most ever, and is considering further expansion, according to Reuters.
USTR Releases 2022 President’s Trade Policy Agenda
The Biden administration Tuesday released its 2022 Trade Policy Agenda and 2021 Annual Report. In 2022, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office will continue to implement Biden’s trade priorities as the United States recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. That work includes soon releasing additional details on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. Key elements in 2022 include supporting workers’ rights, accelerating decarbonization, and supporting U.S. agriculture. The Biden Administration is also focused on creating new opportunities for agriculture, including using existing Free Trade Agreements and Trade and Investment Framework Agreements. Additionally, the strategy includes bolstering supply chains and re-aligning the U.S.-China trade relationship. The report also highlights accomplishments from 2021, including work to promote sustainable environmental practices in trade policy, enforce existing agreements and improve the resilience of global supply chains. It also details how USTR and the Biden Administration have re-aligned the United States-China bilateral trade relationship to defend the rights of American workers, farmers, producers, and businesses.
Growth Energy Calls on Biofuels to Address Global Energy Crisis
Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor says the uncertainty of the situation in Ukraine underscores the need for more homegrown biofuels to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil and improve energy security. In an open letter Tuesday ahead of President Biden’s State of the Union Address, Skor highlighted the potential of biofuels to help lessen the impact of high oil and gas prices. This week, oil prices spiked to more than $100 a barrel, and gas prices are also increasing. In the letter, Skor says, "Increasing access to higher blends of ethanol through E15 year-round can help keep prices down at the pump." Growth Energy says moving E15 nationwide would generate $12.2 billion in savings for U.S. consumers at the pump each year, and bolster the domestic market supply, driving prices downward. Skor says homegrown and low-carbon solutions like biofuels can shield American drivers from the continued volatility in the OPEC-controlled, global oil market.
USDA Announces Supplemental American Rescue Plan Funding
The Department of Agriculture Tuesday announced supplemental American Rescue Plan Act funding for the Local Agriculture Market Program. The program will receive a total of $130 million in supplemental funding from American Rescue Plan Act. The funding seeks to promote competition and create more and better markets for local and regional food producers by expanding and strengthening opportunities to sell to institutions, such as universities, hospitals, and others. The supplemental funding is divided into $65 million for fiscal years 2022 and 2023 each. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says, “Through these grant programs we are able to maximize opportunities for economic growth and ingenuity in the local and regional food system.” In fiscal year 2022, the Local Agriculture Market Program will receive a total of $97 million in competitive grant funding to help local and regional food entities develop, coordinate and expand producer-to-consumer marketing, local and regional food markets and local food enterprises.
Top Producer Names Women in Agriculture Trailblazer Award Winner
Susan Weaver Ford of Kenly, North Carolina, was recognized as the 2022 Executive Women in Agriculture Trailblazer Award winner at Farm Journal’s Top Producer Summit in Nashville. Sponsored by Pioneer, the Executive Women in Agriculture Trailblazer Award honors female producers who are a shining example for their peers. The winner is an advocate for agriculture and represents an innovative farming operation. Entrants were judged on agricultural advocacy, farm business innovation and industry or community leadership. Applications are received from producers across the country and judged by a panel of industry experts. Ford and her father, Ray Weaver, grow tobacco, corn, soybeans, wheat, oats and cotton across 2,000 acres, 420 of which are family-owned. Top Producer magazine's Sara Schafer says, “She is fine-tuning budgets, marketing grain, negotiating contracts and doing high-level risk management.” Last year she was selected as one of 10 Americans to be a Nuffield International Farming Scholar.
Wednesday Watch List
Markets
As has been the routine lately, traders will be watching the latest weather forecasts and any news regarding Ukraine Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Department issues its weekly inventory report at 9:30 a.m. CST, including ethanol production. OPEC and other major oil producers meet Wednesday and are expected to stick to the plan of increasing oil production by 400,000 barrels per day. At 1 p.m., the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released.
Weather
A frontal boundary across the northern tier of the country will bring some isolated showers to some areas on Wednesday and showers will continue in the Pacific Northwest. But most of the country will be mild and dry for another day.