Persistent drought across the Great Plains is taking a toll on America’s winter wheat crop. According to Reuters and USDA data, the department lowered its forecast for 2026-27 winter wheat production by about 2% from last month. Hard red winter wheat output is expected to fall to its lowest level in decades as drought continues to stress crops across major growing areas. Only about one-quarter of the nation’s winter wheat crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, among the weakest ratings seen in recent years. The reduced harvest outlook prompted gains in hard red wheat futures as traders reacted to tightening supplies. Despite the lower wheat forecast, USDA left corn and soybean projections largely unchanged, helping limit broader grain market volatility. Analysts say weather conditions during harvest will determine whether additional production losses occur.
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