Australia's wheat crop is expected to decline sharply this year, a development that could lend support to global wheat prices as farmers worldwide monitor tightening supplies. The country's 2026 wheat harvest is projected at 26.7 million metric tons, down about nine million tons from last season and the smallest crop in three years. Australia is one of the world's leading wheat exporters, and lower production could further tighten global supplies after weather-related crop losses in parts of the United States helped push wheat prices to two-year highs earlier this spring. Australia’s Ag Bureau said soaring fertilizer costs are a major factor behind the smaller crop forecast. Fertilizer prices have surged following disruptions to supplies from Gulf nations amid the conflict involving Iran, leading some growers to reduce fertilizer applications. “High prices will likely cause farmers to fertilize less, reducing yield potential,” the Ag Bureau said in its quarterly crop report. Significantly dry conditions have also weighed on production prospects.
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