The consumer price index for food away from home (restaurant prices) in 2021 is now forecast to be from 2.0% to 3.0%, up from USDA's prior forecast and even with the rate of grocery store price inflation for 2020, according to the Economic Research Service (ERS).
“Forecast ranges for eight of the 22 CPI categories for 2020 have been revised upward this month, with only eggs being revised downward,” ERS said. “The forecast range for food-away-from-home was adjusted upward, while all other categories remained unchanged for 2021.” In September, USDA expected 2021 grocery store prices would rise 1.5% to 2.5% from 2020 levels.
ERS forecasts grocery store prices in 2020 will rise between 2.5% to 3.5% in 2020 with restaurant prices seen rising 2% to 3%.
In 2021, ERS expects grocery store prices to rise between 1% and 2%. Overall food price inflation is looked to be 2.5% to 3.5% in 2020 and then rise 2.0% to 3.0% in 2021.