USDA's forecast that China's 2020/21 corn imports from all sources will be at 7 million metric tons has prompted many questions about the forecast in no small part because U.S. export commitments for corn to China alone stood at 10.5 million metric tons as of October 15.
"Keep in mind that export sales ... do get canceled at times," World Ag Outlook Board (WAOB) Chairman Mark Jekanowski said during a virtual USDA data users meeting.
China's tariff rate quota for corn was maintained at 7.2 mmt for calendar 2021, but expectations are that China's government will issue additional import quotas or take other actions to bring more corn in than the announced TRQ level in 2021.
And the fact there has been no formal announcement factors into the WAOB decision, Jekanowski said. “One of the things we try not to do is forecast changes in policy, including changes in policy by foreign countries,” he noted.
Chinese corn prices have hit lofty levels as demand for corn is high in the country as they seek to rebuild their hog herd that was decimated by African swine fever (ASF) and the country has sought to dramatically reduce the use of swill to feed hogs.