Last week’s notification is the clearest signal yet that the White House is serious about getting the proposal for the biggest in trade deal in US history passed by the end of the year, as he has vowed to do despite the misgivings of Republican leaders and the outright opposition of a majority of Democrats in Congress, Politico says.
The article characterizes the President’s tone as "defiant" as he predicted that the economic centerpiece of his strategic pivot to Asia would pass in the lame-duck session. He said he’d like to sit down with lawmakers after the election to discuss the "actual facts" behind the deal, rather than toss it around like a "political football."
"We are part of a global economy. We're not reversing that," Obama said, describing the necessity of international supply chains and the importance of the export sector to US jobs and the economy. "The notion that we're going to pull that up root and branch is unrealistic."
The notification is “meant to ensure early consultations between the administration and Congress,” Matt McAlvanah, a spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), told the press.
The White House's draft document describes the major steps the administration will take to implement any changes to U.S. law required by the deal which range from the mundane, such as designating points of contact for communications to establishing procedures to stop harmful surges of agricultural or textile imports.
Still, progress on the deal itself likely will depend on the administration’s ability to addresses concerns of lawmakers, including Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and others who worry about protections for a new class of drugs known as biologics, among a number of other issues. Democrats, meanwhile, have largely opposed the deal on the basis of concerns about the enforceability of labor and environmental standards and the need for protections against currency manipulation.
The administration claims it is making progress on these issues, Politico says, and has resolved others. Still, the political reality now is the serious "down-ballot drag that candidates are facing as they campaign back home." Politico thinks this is a reversal from years past, with many Republicans are on the defensive about their support for free trade because of Donald Trump’s daily tirades about what he sees as "economic damage wrought by trade agreements as well as his complaints that China is flouting international trade rules."
In addition, the small band of Democrats the administration hopes will support the TPP are facing increased pressure within their own party from Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who continue to press Hillary Clinton to reject the pact to appease the liberal wing.
Still, the administration appears to be counting on pressure from business interests for support in congressional districts, especially those of Democrats who supported the trade promotion authority bill last year, as well as increasing emphasis on arguments about the importance of the geopolitical implications of the TPP.
As the political fight plays out, the nuts-and-bolts process of moving the deal forward will continue. Once Congress reviews the draft notification that the White House submitted on Friday, the administration can move forward by sending lawmakers a final statement and the draft of the implementing bill itself that highlights actual changes to U.S. law to comply with the rules of the trade agreement.
After that, the Senate Finance and House Ways and Means committees could hold "mock markups" of the bill (because under Trade Promotion Authority the Congress is not actually allowed to tinker with the agreement or its implementing legislation itself, but it can ask the administration to do so).
However, given the tenor of the elections, the entire process seems likely to be pushed into a crowded lame-duck legislation session, which would mean no time for the mock markups, Politico says. Instead, there could be a lot of deal-making between the White House and congressional leadership to work to move the bill before Clinton or Trump takes over on Jan. 20.
And, in the meantime, the President emphasizes that he is willing and ready to press his case. Right now, he says, he’s still for the deal. "And I think I've got the better argument," he said.
Clearly, this is a high-stakes fight for producers that should be watched closely as it proceeds, Washington Insider believes.