The value of U.S. ag exports in October is $1.83 billion lower, or nearly 13, from year ago while the value of imports was down $495 million from year ago. The resulting trade surplus of is down $1.336 billion, or 28%, from the Oct. 2014 trade surplus.
The October export value is the largest since Dec. 2014 when exports were valued at $13.93 billion while the value of imports was the largest since $9.21 billion in July. The trade surplus is also the largest pool of trade black in since December 2014 when it was $4.42 billion. The October surplus broke a string of six consecutive months where the trade gap was below $1 billion.
USDA is forecasting the value of U.S. ag exports to be $131.5 billion for Fiscal Year 2016, having lowered expectations $7 billion from USDA's August forecast. If realized, exports would be $8 billion less than Fiscal 2015.
The value of U.S. ag imports in Fiscal 2016 is now at $122 billion, down $500 million from the August outlook, but still a new record and some $8 billion above the Fiscal 2015 level.
The updated forecasts now mean an ag trade surplus of $9.5 billion, down $16.2 billion from the Fiscal 2015 mark of $25.7 billion. The new forecast ag trade surplus would be the lowest since Fiscal Year 2006.