Food inflation is expected to wrap up 2015 just under its historical average increase of 2.6 percent, according to USDA’s monthly Food Price Outlook report for December. The agency’s forecast for 2016, however, has food inflation rising to between 2.0 percent and 3.0 percent for the year, up from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent for the current calendar period.
Most of the projected increase in inflation is in food bought to be consumed or prepared at home. At-home foodstuffs are expected to rise in price to between 2.0 percent and 3.0 percent in 2016, up from 0.75 percent to 1.75 percent in 2015. The rate of inflation for food purchased away from home, by contrast, is expected to increase just a few tenths of a percentage point, to between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent in 2016 from 2.2 percent to 3.2 percent in the current year.
Meat, poultry and fish is most important category on a weighted basis, and expectations for inflation in the category overall mirror those for all-food inflation. However, for 2015 projections vary widely by species, with beef and veal increasingly significantly — as much as 7.75 percent for the year — but moderating in 2016. Pork, meanwhile, is expected to finish up the year with price down by as much as 4.25 percent for the year.
For 2015, eggs have seen the biggest price hike: They are expected to finish the year at price that are 16.75 percent to 17.75 percent higher than a year ago.