CHICAGO — U.S. beef exports are expected to rebound in 2016, increasing by 7 percent, after declining by 12 percent in 2015, predicted Sterling Marketing President John Nalivka at the North American Meat Institute management conference here.
At the same time, Nalivka predicted beef imports into the United States would decline by 16 percent, after rising by 14 percent in 2015.
Part of the reason: the U.S. currency, after rising by 25 percent against other major currencies since June 2014, has declined by 6 percent since Jan. 29. Since Feb. 26, the U.S. dollar has dropped 8 percent against major beef export competitor Australia.
Nalivka expects a big jump in U.S. beef exports to Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, but expects a decline in shipments to Canada and substantial decrease in shipments to Mexico.
U.S. commercial beef production should rise by 4.5 percent this year, after declining by 2 percent last year and declining 6 percent in 2014. He expects fed cattle slaughter capacity utilization at 86 percent in 2016, up from 83 percent last year.
Pork
Nalivka predicted U.S. pork exports would climb by 4 percent in 2016, following a 2 percent rise in 2015. He sees continued pork export increases to Japan and South Korea, while predicting declines in shipments to Mexico and Canada.
He also sees continued strength in U.S. pork imports, predicting a 10 percent increase this year, following last year’s 10 percent increase.
Even as U.S. pork production increases, Nalivka sees sufficient domestic and global demand to keep hog prices from plunging. While expecting slaughter capacity utilization to climb as high at 97 percent, he does not believe supply will outstrip capacity this year. Capacity utilization hit 96 percent in 2015.
He predicted commercial market hog slaughter in 2016 would rise by 2 percent, following last year’s 8 percent increase, rebounding from the 4 percent decline in 2014, due to porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV).