Monday Watch List

Markets

After changing clocks over the weekend, traders will begin the second week of November with many of the same rituals, checking the latest weather forecasts and pausing at 8 a.m. CST to see if USDA has an export sale announcement. USDA's weekly report of grain inspections is due out at 10 a.m., followed by Crop Progress at 3 p.m.

Weather

Relatively dry conditions across the majority of the country on Monday will help producers advance through the remaining harvest. Hot and dry conditions across the southwestern Plains are drying out soil moisture for winter wheat establishment.

World Food Prices Reach New Peak since July 2011

The world food price barometer surged to a new peak reaching its highest level since July 2011. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released its monthly report Thursday, which tracks changes in the international prices of a basket of food commodities. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.2 points in October, up three percent from September, rising for a third consecutive month. Cereal grain prices increased 3.2 percent from last month, and vegetable oil prices were up 9.6 percent, an all-time high. Meanwhile, dairy prices increased 2.6 percent, influenced by generally firmer global import demand. Meat prices declined 0.7 percent, the third monthly decline, and sugar prices fell 1.8 percent in September, the first decline in six months. Despite an expected record world cereal production in 2021, global cereal inventories are seen heading for a contraction in 2021/22. The forecast for world cereal output in 2021 is now pegged at 2,793 million metric tons, down by 6.7 million tons since the previous report in October.

USDA Builds Pandemic Support for Certified and Transitioning Organic Operations

The Department of Agriculture Thursday announced pandemic assistance to cover certification and education expenses to certified organic producers or transitioning to organic. USDA will make $20 million available through the new Organic and Transitional Education and Certification Program. During the COVID-19 pandemic, certified organic and transitional operations faced challenges due to loss of markets, and increased costs and labor shortages, in addition to costs related to obtaining or renewing their organic certification, which producers and handlers of conventionally grown commodities do not incur. Certified operations and transitional operations may apply for funding for eligible expenses paid during the 2020, 2021 and 2022 fiscal years. For each year, the program covers 25 percent of a certified operation’s eligible certification expenses, up to $250 per certification. Crop and livestock operations transitioning to organic production may be eligible for 75 percent of a transitional operation’s eligible expenses, up to $750, for each year. Signup for 2020 and 2021 will begin November 8, 2021.

Senate Ag Committee Advances CFTC Chair Nomination

The Senate Agriculture Committee Thursday advanced the nomination of Rostin Behnam as Chairman and Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Behnam has served as a Commissioner on the CFTC for the past four years and was nominated for a second term earlier this year. Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat from Michigan, says, “As we navigate what the future of financial markets looks like for farmers, families, and small businesses, I know we can trust Chairman Behnam’s leadership and expertise to protect our economy.” Behnam previously served as senior counsel to Senator Stabenow and the Senate Agriculture Committee. Ranking committee member John Bozeman, an Arkansas Republican, adds, “Behnam has proven himself to be a capable leader during his tenure as acting chairman of the CFTC.” The Committee held a hearing on the nomination of Behnam late last month. Benham was nominated to the CFTC in July of 2017 by then President Donald Trump.

Deere Claims No Third Proposal Coming in Negotiations

A spokesperson for Deere and Company says there will not be a third contract offer to striking union workers. The UAW John Deere members voted to reject the second proposal from Deere this week, leaving more than 10,000 workers on strike. In a company statement, Deere says, “With the rejection of the agreement covering our Midwest facilities, we will execute the next phase of our Customer Service Continuation Plan." A company spokesperson also told WQAD-TV in Moline, Illinois, "I think one of the things that the bargaining committee for Deere is making clear is that this is the best, last and final offer.” UAW members voted to reject the offer, with 55 percent voting against and 45 percent voting for the agreement. The results show just four of the 12 Deere facilities included voted against the tentative agreement. Deere would have provided an immediate ten percent wage increase, and 30 percent wage increase over the term of the six-year contract.

Report: U.S. Animal Protein Needs Trade Negotiators Back at the Table

A report from CoBank shows animal agriculture needs trade negotiators at the table to build export markets. The report says the recent nomination of a chief agriculture negotiator with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is an important step forward. However, Elaine Trevino has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. U.S. animal protein exports have grown from $7.4 billion to $20.7 billion in the past two decades, driven by industry marketing and government trade negotiations. Today, trade accounts for 10-30 percent of U.S. animal protein production, depending on the industry segment. The Trump administration's harder line on trade, continued by the current administration, has led to mixed results for U.S. agriculture. Ag exports to China have flourished under the Phase One agreement, but the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership cost U.S. exporters some opportunities. The report adds diversification of markets and products is vital for a vibrant U.S. protein export trade. Successful trade also depends on maintaining commitments with long-established partners, as seen with Mexico, Canada, Japan, and others.

Farmer-led RIPE Expands Steering Committee with Two New Members

Rural Investment to Protect our Environment, known as RIPE, recently added two highly respected Farmers Unions to its steering committee. The organization announced Thursday that Minnesota Farmers Union’s Eunice Biel and North Dakota Farmers Union’s Matt Perdue joined the committee. RIPE is described as a farmer-led nonprofit advancing a national bipartisan, comprehensive climate policy that invests in voluntary agricultural stewardship practices that provide a reasonable return to farmers and the public. Through $100 per acre payments, the RIPE100 plan would reward farmers for the total public value of their conservation practices, including no-till, cover crops and more. In addition to carbon sequestration, the voluntary federal program would pay for improved soil health, cleaner water, biodiversity and other environmental services. Payments would also help farmers manage rising input costs, such as fertilizer, due to climate policy, while giving them a reasonable return. RIPE’s steering committee advises the policy design plan and makes recommendations on other opportunities that support the organization’s mission.