Study Finds That Drought Can Add Two Days to Heat Wave Duration

A recent study finds that drought can lengthen heat waves if these two features occur at the same time. This connection is familiar to anyone who has labored through a blistering hot day during a dry spell; however, the quantifying of this drought-heat wave relationship is noteworthy, nonetheless. A NOAA/NIDIS news release on this project stated that "researchers examined the influence of drought on heat wave intensity, duration, and human exposure to extreme heat using air temperature, soil moisture, and soil temperature observations from across the country." Research team members found that drought increased the average duration of heat waves by 13 to 48 hours at most of the weather stations included in the study. Nationally, heat waves during drought had an average of about nine more hours of extreme heat compared to heat waves that occur in non-drought conditions. Research results were recently published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

ERS Season Average Price Forecasts at 1 p.m. CDT

ERS Wheat Data at 1 p.m. CDT

Weekly Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

Isolated to scattered showers continue from the Southern Plains through the Northeast and all areas south on Monday due to a lot of leftover features that are milling about the area as well as some heat and humidity. A front is swinging south through the Canadian Prairies and will get into the Northern Plains Monday night, being a focal point for showers and thunderstorms as well.

Rollins Shuts Down Southern Ports Again

A new case of New World screwworm appeared this week, only 160 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border. USDA had previously announced a risk-based phased-in port reopening strategy for cattle, bison, and equine from Mexico that began on July 7. The new case raises significant concerns in the U.S. and compromises the outlined port reopening schedule for five ports in the southern U.S. In order to protect American livestock and the nation’s food supply, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately. “The U.S. promised to be vigilant, and after detecting the new case, we are pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico,” Rollins said. “We must see progress in multiple Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” Aggressive USDA staff monitoring allowed the U.S. to take quick action. 

NCBA Applauds Quick Closure of Southern Ports

The USDA is again closing southern ports of entry to shipments of cattle due to the detection of New World screwworm in Veracruz (VEHR-ah-cruise), Mexico. USDA discovered the new case in Veracruz, indicating that the screwworm has traveled 160 miles northward of the location where sterile flies are currently being dropped. “The New World screwworm’s northern movement jeopardizes the safety of American agriculture, which is why Secretary Rollins paused cattle movement again until we can push the pest further from the southern U.S. border,” said NCBA CEO Collin Woodall. “Unfortunately, screwworm continues moving north through Mexico, and it’s clear that the U.S. needs a sterile fly facility of our own here at home.” He also said America can’t afford to wait any longer and strongly urged USDA to immediately begin work on a sterile fly facility. Moore Air Base in Texas will be the site of a new sterile fly facility. 

Consumer Watchdog Group Applauds Suit Against California Over Egg Costs

The Center for the Environment and Welfare applauded the Trump administration’s lawsuit filed this week to nullify onerous California regulations driving up food prices nationwide. The filing takes aim at three California laws, including Proposition 12, dictating farming practices for eggs and pork. In practice, Prop 12 forces farmers around the country to adopt California’s radical production standards while prohibiting veterinarian-approved animal husbandry practices. The Center says the three laws were pushed by radical animal activists who don’t believe people should eat eggs or pork at all. “It’s great to see the administration taking decisive action to protect the country from California’s overreaching policies, but Americans facing high food costs can’t afford to wait for years of court appeals,” says Jack Hubbard, the CEW’s executive director. “Polls show California voters now regret the passage of Proposition 12, and there is strong bipartisan support for Congressional legislation to nullify the farm mandates.”

Illegal Pesticide Smuggling Surging in Europe

The cost of spraying crops with pesticides is continuing to get more expensive across the European Union. Farmers in countries like Greece are finding cheaper alternatives in unlabeled bottles smuggled into the country. Reuters says a dozen farmers quoted anonymously say the products are more effective than what they regularly use. However, they’re also potentially more harmful. Laboratory tests show the bottles contain pesticides banned in the EU for several years due to suspected risks to humans and the environment. The pesticide smuggling in Greece is showing up in other areas across the European Union. EU authorities say the use of banned and counterfeit pesticides is higher than ever. This comes as the EU is looking to reduce the use of even permitted crop protection products as part of its green transition. At least 14 percent of pesticides used in EU fields are illegal, up from about 10 percent in 2015. 

Food Spending Increases from 2023-2024

USDA says per capita total U.S. food spending increased 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024, slightly outpacing the 2.3 percent increase in food prices during the same period. That showed a stronger demand for food despite higher prices. However, national trends in sales mask uneven growth across multiple U.S. states. Three states showed a decrease in per capita food sales, with New Hampshire dropping the most at two percent in 2024. This was driven by a 6.6 percent increase in sales at grocery stores, supercenters, and other food-at-home stores. West Virginia and Kansas were the only other states where total per capita food sales declined, dropping by one percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Per capita food sales increased the most in Washington, D.C., rising ten percent, and were driven by food away from home sales. Other states with high growth included New York at 5.9 percent and California at 5.5 percent.