An editorial in the LA Times warns consumers to stop worrying about GMOs, and goes further to say “it's that organic granola bar that could make you sick.” Henry Miller from Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and the founding director of the Office of Biotechnology at the Food and Drug Administration, writes that recalls of organic foods amounted to seven percent of all food units recalled in 2015, even though organic farms account for only about one percent of agricultural acreage. Further, he writes, that paying the “organic tax” — the price premium associated with organic products — makes you no healthier. Miller cited a study by researchers at Stanford University that found fruits and vegetables that met the criteria for “organic” were on average no more nutritious than their far cheaper conventional counterparts.
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Saturday, July 2, 2016
Poultry Dispute between U.S. and China Headed to WTO Panel
The World Trade Organization will develop a dispute panel for a complaint filed by the U.S. against China. In May, U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman filed a WTO complaint over whether China is in compliance with a 2013 mandate on duties on U.S. broiler products, according to Meatingplace. Chinese government officials responded last week with a strong statement that it was working with U.S. trade officials and adding that its measures are in compliance with WTO rules. The WTO could make a decision on the issue before the end of this year, opening the appeal process for China, if the nation is found to be non-complaint with the duties.
USDA Finalizes Crop Insurance Provision in 2014 Farm Bill
The Risk Management Agency for the Department of Agriculture said this week the final safety net provisions of the 2014 Farm Bill, which provide farmers and ranchers better protection from weather disasters, market volatility, and other risk factors, are now in place. The Agency says it has finalized an interim rule that completes provisions such as enterprise units for irrigated and non-irrigated crops, adjustment in actual production history to establish insurable yields, crop production on native sod, beginning farmer and rancher provisions, coverage levels by practice, and the authority to correct errors. All other provisions of the final rule remain unchanged. RMA Administrator Brandon Willis says the 2014 Farm Bill provisions, now final, “strengthen the safety net we provide.” RMA began implementing the provisions under an interim rule for the 2015 crop year.
Rural Counties Report Population Losses
The Department of Agriculture this week said population losses in non-metro classified counties reached nearly 150,000 in the last five years. However, USDA says the number of individual non-metro counties losing population in a five-year period reached a 50-year high of 1,320, with a net population loss of nearly 650,000. Since the Great Recession, which ended in mid-2009, new areas of population loss have emerged throughout the eastern United States, especially in manufacturing-dependent regions. The 501 non-metro counties with moderate population growth together added just over 200,000 people. Most non-metro population growth was concentrated in just 154 counties that grew by four percent or more, adding close to 300,000 people. USDA says workers attracted to the oil and gas boom caused rapid growth in the northern Great Plains, western and southern Texas, and southeastern New Mexico. However, recent production cutbacks in these regions slowed population growth in mining-dependent counties in the past year.
All Wheat Stocks Stored in Northwest Region Up 12 Percent from June 1, 2015
All wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 21.8 million bushels in Idaho, up from 18.2 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 28 percent, while on-farm stocks were unchanged compared to the previous year. In Oregon, wheat stored in all positions totaled 10.6 million bushels, down from 12.0 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were down 14 percent, while on-farm stocks were up 8 percent compared to the previous year. In Washington, wheat stored in all positions totaled 44.6 million bushels, up from 38.6 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 16 percent, while on-farm stocks were up 7 percent compared to the previous year. Nationally, wheat stored in all positions totaled 981 million bushels, up from 752 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 31 percent, while on-farm stocks were up 27 percent compared to the previous year.
Barley stocks in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 22.7 million bushels in Idaho, up from 14.4 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 98 percent, while on-farm stocks were down 24 percent compared to the previous year. In Oregon, barley stored in all positions totaled 377,000 bushels, up from 339,000 bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were down slightly, while on-farm stocks were up 80 percent compared to the previous year. In Washington, barley stored in all positions totaled 1.96 million bushels, down from 1.99 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 3 percent, while on-farm stocks were down 22 percent compared to the previous year. Nationally, barley stored in all positions totaled 102 million bushels, up from 78.6 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 30 percent, while on-farm stocks were up 32 percent compared to the previous year.
Oats stored in off-farm locations on June 1, 2016 totaled 90,000 bushels in Idaho, up from 78,000 bushels a year ago. In Oregon, oats stored in off-farm locations totaled 240,000 bushels, up from 198,000 bushels a year ago. In Washington, oats stored in off-farm locations totaled 46,000 bushels, down from 91,000 bushels the previous year. Nationally, oats stored in all positions totaled 56.8 million bushels, up from 53.7 million bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were down slightly, while on-farm stocks were up 21 percent compared to the previous year.
Corn stored in off-farm locations on June 1, 2016 totaled 2.8 million bushels in Idaho, down from 3.8 million bushels a year ago. In Washington, corn stored in off-farm locations totaled 15.1 million bushels, up from 8.3 million bushels a year ago. Nationally, corn stored in all positions totaled 4.7 billion bushels, up from 4.5 billion bushels a year ago. Off-farm stocks were up 3 percent, while on-farm stocks were up 9 percent compared to the previous year.
Area in the Northwest Region Planted to Winter Wheat up slightly from 2015 Corn Planted Acres up 22 percent in the Northwest Region compared to 2015 All Hay Harvested Acres up 6 percent in the Northwest Region from Last Year Area Planted to Fall Potatoes down slightly in the Northwest Region from 2015
Winter wheat acres planted in Idaho are estimated at 760,000 acres, up 10,000 acres from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 720,000 acres, up 3 percent from 2015. In Oregon, acres planted to winter wheat are estimated at 710,000 acres, down 30,000 acres from the previous year. Acres to be harvested are forecast at 705,000 acres, down 4 percent from 2015. Acres planted to winter wheat in Washington are estimated at 1.70 million acres, up 50,000.0 from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 1.67 million acres, up 5 percent from 2015. Nationally, winter wheat acres planted totaled 36.5 million acres, down 7 percent from last year. Harvested area is expected to total 30.2 million acres, down 6 percent from 2015.
Spring wheat acres planted in the Northwest Region are down 5 percent from 2015. Idaho spring wheat planted acres increased from 440,000 acres in 2015 to 460,000 acres in 2016. Spring wheat planted acres in Oregon are estimated at 100,000 acres, up 5,000 acres from 2015. Washington spring wheat planted acres at 550,000 acres down 80,000 from 2015.
Corn acres planted for all purposes in Idaho are estimated at 360,000 acres, up 80,000 acres from 2015. However, corn harvested for grain area is forecast at 130,000 acres, up 86 percent from 2015. In Oregon, acres planted to corn for all purposes are estimated at 90,000 acres, up 25,000 acres from 2015. Acres to be harvested for grain are forecast at 45,000 acres, up 50 percent from the previous year. Acres planted to corn for all purposes in Washington are estimated at 180,000 acres, up 10,000 acres from 2015. Corn harvested for grain acres are forecast at 80,000 acres, up 7 percent from the previous years.
All hay harvested area in Idaho is expected to total 1.4 million acres, up 8 percent from 2015. In Oregon, all hay harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million acres, up 6 percent from last year. All hay harvested area in Washington is expected to total 770,000 acres, up 3 percent from the previous year. In the United States, all hay harvested area is estimated at 56.1 million acres, up 3 percent from last year
Potatoes planted acres in Idaho are estimated at 325,000 acres, unchanged acres from the previous year. Harvested acre, at 325,000 acres, is up 1,000 acres from the previous year. In Oregon, growers planted an estimated 39,000 acres of potatoes, unchanged from last year. Harvested acre, at 39,000 acres, is up 100 acres from last year. Washington growers planted an estimated 165,000 acres of potatoes, down 3 percent from the previous year. Harvested acre, also at 165,000 acres, is down 3 percent from 2015. Nationally, area planted to fall potatoes is estimated at 916,400 acres, down 3 percent from last year. Harvested acre is forecast at 911,100, also down 3 percent from 2015.
USDA Expects Improved Yields Will Offset Decline in U.S. Planted Wheat Area
By Stephanie Bryant-Erdmann, USW Market Analyst
U.S. farmers responded to market signals and planted the fewest acres to wheat since the early 1970s according to USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report. However, the 2016/17 yield potential is high with nearly every region in the United States experiencing favorable weather conditions. USDA projects total average yields at 48.6 bu/ac or 3.3 metric tons per hectare up from 43.6 bu/ac last year and 8 percent above the 5-year average.
As of June 30, USDA estimated total area planted to wheat would reach 50.8 million acres, which is 9 percent lower than the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 harvested area to drop 6 percent from both last year and the 5-year average to 44.1 million acres.
USDA estimates farmers planted 36.5 million acres of winter wheat for the 2016/17 harvest, up slightly from the March estimate. Rain last fall that delayed soybean harvest prevented some wheat seeding last fall, but low farm gate prices also contributed to the winter wheat planted area decline.
The winter wheat crop went into winter dormancy in good or above average condition but limited snow cover left the crop vulnerable to cold temperatures. However, a mild winter and early spring allowed winter wheat to emerge from dormancy in better than normal condition and beneficial spring rains further improved yield potential. As of June 27, USDA rated 62 percent of winter wheat in good or excellent condition, up from 41 percent last year at this time. USDA rated just 9 percent of the winter crop as poor or very poor, down from 23 percent in 2015.
USDA assessed hard red winter (HRW) planted area at 26.5 million acres, down 9 percent from 2015, and unchanged from the March estimate. While, a record-warm December and above average rainfall boosted yield potential significantly, heavy May rains caused flooding in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Harvested area in top HRW-producers Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas is projected to fall 12 percent year over year. As of June 27, harvest was 58 percent complete in Kansas, ahead of 50 percent complete at this time in the 2015 harvest. Texas and Oklahoma harvest is nearly complete, and custom harvesters began test cutting along the Kansas-Nebraska border this week.
In contrast to recent years, soft red winter (SRW) harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains is progressing rapidly with good harvest conditions. As of June 27, harvest in Illinois was 76 percent complete compared to 45 percent complete last year with wheat in the largest SRW-growing state rated at 70 percent good to excellent. That is way up from 37 percent good to excellent on the same date in 2015. USDA estimates total 2016/17 SRW area at 6.58 million acres, 7 percent lower than 2015/16 and 20 percent below the 5-year average.
White wheat planted area increased slightly year over year according to USDA. White wheat planted area is forecast at 4.15 million acres. Idaho, Oregon and Washington, which produce most of the exportable U.S. white wheat were in the third year of drought during fall planting. However, December brought much needed precipitation to the region, and timely rains have continued to boost yield potential across the Pacific Northwest. With the adequate soil moisture, white wheat protein is expected to return to a more normal, lower range in 2016/17.
Hard red spring (HRS) planting finished well ahead of normal this year in most areas due to the early spring. USDA estimates farmers planted 11.4 million acres to HRS, up slightly from USDA’s March estimate but 9 percent below 2015/16 levels. As of June 27, 72 percent of the spring crop was rated good or excellent and just 5 percent was poor or very poor. In North Dakota, the largest HRS producing state, 78 percent of the crop is in good or excellent condition. According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 56 percent of spring wheat was headed as of June 27, compared to the 5-year average of 27 percent, indicating that the HRS crop is developing faster than normal.
Durum acreage increased again this year as farmers responded to higher prices. Northern durum is grown primarily in two regions of North Dakota and Montana. Desert Durum ® harvest is underway in Arizona and California. As of June 27, wheat harvest in Arizona was 96 percent complete compared to the 5-year average of 88 percent complete on the same date. California harvest is also ahead of schedule with USDA reporting 88 percent completion compared to 71 percent complete this time last year. USDA estimates 2.14 million acres were planted to durum, up 11 percent from 2015/16 but still 5 percent below the 5-year average of 2.26 million acres.
The industry will next turn toward USDA for its first by-class production estimates on July 12.
U.S. farmers responded to market signals and planted the fewest acres to wheat since the early 1970s according to USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report. However, the 2016/17 yield potential is high with nearly every region in the United States experiencing favorable weather conditions. USDA projects total average yields at 48.6 bu/ac or 3.3 metric tons per hectare up from 43.6 bu/ac last year and 8 percent above the 5-year average.
As of June 30, USDA estimated total area planted to wheat would reach 50.8 million acres, which is 9 percent lower than the 5-year average. USDA expects 2016/17 harvested area to drop 6 percent from both last year and the 5-year average to 44.1 million acres.
USDA estimates farmers planted 36.5 million acres of winter wheat for the 2016/17 harvest, up slightly from the March estimate. Rain last fall that delayed soybean harvest prevented some wheat seeding last fall, but low farm gate prices also contributed to the winter wheat planted area decline.
The winter wheat crop went into winter dormancy in good or above average condition but limited snow cover left the crop vulnerable to cold temperatures. However, a mild winter and early spring allowed winter wheat to emerge from dormancy in better than normal condition and beneficial spring rains further improved yield potential. As of June 27, USDA rated 62 percent of winter wheat in good or excellent condition, up from 41 percent last year at this time. USDA rated just 9 percent of the winter crop as poor or very poor, down from 23 percent in 2015.
USDA assessed hard red winter (HRW) planted area at 26.5 million acres, down 9 percent from 2015, and unchanged from the March estimate. While, a record-warm December and above average rainfall boosted yield potential significantly, heavy May rains caused flooding in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Harvested area in top HRW-producers Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas is projected to fall 12 percent year over year. As of June 27, harvest was 58 percent complete in Kansas, ahead of 50 percent complete at this time in the 2015 harvest. Texas and Oklahoma harvest is nearly complete, and custom harvesters began test cutting along the Kansas-Nebraska border this week.
In contrast to recent years, soft red winter (SRW) harvest in the U.S. Southern Plains is progressing rapidly with good harvest conditions. As of June 27, harvest in Illinois was 76 percent complete compared to 45 percent complete last year with wheat in the largest SRW-growing state rated at 70 percent good to excellent. That is way up from 37 percent good to excellent on the same date in 2015. USDA estimates total 2016/17 SRW area at 6.58 million acres, 7 percent lower than 2015/16 and 20 percent below the 5-year average.
White wheat planted area increased slightly year over year according to USDA. White wheat planted area is forecast at 4.15 million acres. Idaho, Oregon and Washington, which produce most of the exportable U.S. white wheat were in the third year of drought during fall planting. However, December brought much needed precipitation to the region, and timely rains have continued to boost yield potential across the Pacific Northwest. With the adequate soil moisture, white wheat protein is expected to return to a more normal, lower range in 2016/17.
Hard red spring (HRS) planting finished well ahead of normal this year in most areas due to the early spring. USDA estimates farmers planted 11.4 million acres to HRS, up slightly from USDA’s March estimate but 9 percent below 2015/16 levels. As of June 27, 72 percent of the spring crop was rated good or excellent and just 5 percent was poor or very poor. In North Dakota, the largest HRS producing state, 78 percent of the crop is in good or excellent condition. According to USDA’s weekly crop progress report, 56 percent of spring wheat was headed as of June 27, compared to the 5-year average of 27 percent, indicating that the HRS crop is developing faster than normal.
Durum acreage increased again this year as farmers responded to higher prices. Northern durum is grown primarily in two regions of North Dakota and Montana. Desert Durum ® harvest is underway in Arizona and California. As of June 27, wheat harvest in Arizona was 96 percent complete compared to the 5-year average of 88 percent complete on the same date. California harvest is also ahead of schedule with USDA reporting 88 percent completion compared to 71 percent complete this time last year. USDA estimates 2.14 million acres were planted to durum, up 11 percent from 2015/16 but still 5 percent below the 5-year average of 2.26 million acres.
The industry will next turn toward USDA for its first by-class production estimates on July 12.
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