The U.S. hog herd remains smaller than a year ago, with USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report showing 74.3 million head as of September 1, down about two percent from last year. The breeding herd was estimated at 5.87 million head, down one percent and the smallest since 2013. The June-through-August pig crop also fell about one percent, while farrowings were down nearly three percent from a year earlier. USDA says the numbers point to little expansion potential through early 2027, but there is no evidence of widespread herd liquidation. Meanwhile, USDA lowered its pork export expectations for 2026 and 2027, citing softer global demand and increased competition from Canada and Brazil, particularly in Mexico, the largest foreign market for U.S. pork. Hog profitability remains positive, but higher corn prices are narrowing margins. Analysts say continued declines in hog prices could eventually pressure producers to reduce herd numbers further.
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