The USDA is forecasting a significantly smaller U.S. rice crop for the 2026-27 marketing year, according to the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. USDA projects rice production at 175.2 million hundredweight, down more than 31 million hundredweight, or 15 percent, from the previous year. If realized, it would mark the smallest U.S. rice crop since the 2022-23 marketing year. The decline is largely tied to reduced acreage. USDA estimates farmers planted 493,000 fewer acres of rice this season, leading to a 17 percent drop in harvested area to 2.27 million acres. Partially offsetting the acreage decline is an expected increase in yields. USDA forecasts average yields at 7,732 pounds per acre, up 188 pounds from last year. Harvested acreage estimates are based on USDA’s Prospective Plantings report and a ten-year harvested-to-planted ratio average. Updated acreage figures are expected in USDA’s Acreage report scheduled for release June 30.
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