The cost of eating out will be a little higher than previously forecast by USDA for 2021, but forecasts for overall food price inflation and grocery store prices were kept at prior marks by USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS).
Food away from home (restaurant) prices are now expected to increase from 2.5% to 3.5% in 2021 compared with 2020, ERS said, up from 2% to 3% forecast as the increase in March. The higher forecast was "driven by increases in prices for food from 'limited service' vendors (locations where customers pay at the register before eating)," ERS said.
Food prices overall so far in 2021 have shown increases compared with 2020, with restaurant prices up 3.7% in March from year ago while food at home (grocery store) prices are up 3.3% from year ago. So far in 2021, food at home prices are up 1% and food away from prices are up 2.3%, while the CPI for all food is up 1.6%.