World merchandise trade has rebounded strongly following major declines at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the outlook going forward is unclear as cases again rise in Europe and North America, according to the latest update of the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Good Trade Barometer.
The barometer provides real-time information on the trajectory of world merchandise trade relative to recent trends. The index's current reading of 100.7 is just above the baseline of 100, which indicates trade growth in line with the medium-term trend. It marks a major rebound form the record low 84.5 reading seen in August.
“All of the barometer's component indices were rising in the latest months, with some climbing above their medium-run trends while others remained depressed,” WTO detailed. Export orders and agricultural raw materials sub-indices “finished firmly above trend.” Meanwhile, container shipping and automotive product indices recovered to near trend, and air freight and electronic components indices remained below trend, WTO said.
Despite the recent rebound, WTO warned “trade related uncertainty remains high.” That uncertainty is linked to the second wave of infections, which “is already under way in Europe and North America, leading to renewed lockdowns that could trigger another round of business closures and financial distress,” it said.