USDA on Tuesday increased its China's corn import estimate, to 13 million metric tons, from 7 million metric tons previously.
The level, however, is still below other predictions out there, including the USDA ag attache office at 22 mmt.
USDA's World Board said, “For China, while the National Development and Reform Commission has not made any public statements indicating additional corn import quota has been allocated, shipment data for exporting countries through early November indicates they will exceed their tariff rate quota level of 7.2 (mmt).”
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) later on Tuesday noted, “China's imports of coarse grains for 2020/21 are forecast higher this month, mirroring the level seen in 2014-15 when imports spiked due to strong prices in the domestic market. The rise for 2020/21 is supported by strong recovery in the swine sector, which has been driving feed demand higher. Corn prices in the domestic market have rallied since February, and in October, the national price averaged around $362 per ton, the highest since August 2015.”
FAS also noted forecast rise in corn imports by China is “partly based on China Customs Statistics and U.S. Grain Inspections data through early November, which indicate that imports will far exceed the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) level of 7.2 mmt in calendar year 2020. There have been no public statements that would indicate that additional quota has been allocated by the National Development Reform Commission, the authority governing the TRQs.”