U.S. agricultural exports reached $11.1 billion in August, up nearly 8% from July and the highest level since March when $11.9 billion in U.S. ag goods were shipped. Imports, however, eased to $10.9 billion, down 0.6% from the July mark and counter to the trend seen in overall U.S. trade which saw imports rise by a greater percentage level than exports.
But this helped U.S. agriculture regain a trade surplus of $245.6 million, reversing five straight months of trade deficits and in six of the last seven months. This brings cumulative U.S. ag exports for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 to $123.7 billion against imports of $122.3 billion for a trade surplus of $1.4 billion. To meet USDA's forecast for FY 2020 of $135 billion in exports and $131.7 billion in imports, September exports would need to be $11.35 billion and imports $9.43 billion.
With large shipments to China expected to be registered for some key commodities for September, the export target could well be hit.
Imports have not fallen under $10 billion since February 2019, which would suggest the import total will surpass USDA's current forecast and further trim the trade balance, but still should result in an annual trade surplus.