Wheat Tour Final - HRW Wheat Tour Ends With Average Yield Estimate of 47.2 BPA

MANHATTAN, Kan. (DTN) -- The Kansas winter wheat crop could produce an average yield of 47.2 bushels per acre (bpa), according to the final estimate of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Winter (HRW) Wheat Tour. That's up from USDA's final yield of 38 bpa last year, when dry conditions hampered wheat yields early in the season. The wheat tour's final estimate is an average of three days of wheat yield estimates produced by crop scouts who scouted and measured wheat throughout Kansas as well as southern Nebraska and northern Oklahoma. On the first day, crop scouts produced a yield estimate of 46.9 bpa, on the second day 47.6 bpa, and on the third, 46.2 bpa. Overall, the 74 participants on this year's HRW wheat tour visited 469 fields. Muddy boots and wet pants quickly became routine, as scouts encountered unusually ample soil moisture in many parts of the state, although dryness has crept into some southwestern counties. In addition to yield, the tour's participants each ventured a personal estimate of Kansas's total final winter wheat production, for an average projection of 306.5 million bushels of wheat, up from USDA's final estimate of 277 million bushels last year. Tour organizers and wheat industry leaders stressed that the yield and production estimates should be viewed as a useful snapshot of the crop's potential at this particular moment -- but much could change between now and harvest. "It gives an assessment of the crop at this point in time," said Aaron Harries, vice president of research and operations for Kansas Wheat. "It's the potential. If all things were to remain equal, this is what the number may be at the end of harvest. The problem is that, between now and then, we could have floods, rains, drought, hail, wind, disease, pests, and that wheat crop could have a lot to go up against." Nearly half the crop is already battling the consequences of late planting: Many fields are short and running weeks behind normal development. One farmer in Marion County told scouts his fields weren't planted until Nov. 1 -- and they got 4 inches of snow a week later. His wheat field wasn't at flag leaf yet this week, when it would normally be in boot stage or heading at this time of the year. Low prices have discouraged many growers from investing in these late-planted fields. In the south-central counties of the state, crop scouts viewed some fields that had been sprayed out with glyphosate, in order to plant to a different crop. Winter wheat acres, pegged at 7 million planted acres by USDA, could drop significantly before harvest. There is reason to remain optimistic, however. The spring has provided plentiful moisture and moderate temperatures so far, and if that trend continues -- as forecasts suggest it will -- it could benefit grainfill. "Winter wheat is a cool season grass," Harries noted. "We have our biggest yields in Kansas when it stays nice and moderately cool in May and we have good rainfall, because that encourages the plant to produce more starch, which increases the yield."