General Comments
The U.S. stock market indices are flat with the Dow 3 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 2 higher. Energies are weaker with crude 0.90 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold 5.50 higher.
CORN
Corn trade is 14 cents higher at midday and near the daily highs with steady buying after trade tested the $4.30 lows again overnight. Wet weather will linger in the short term, but warmer drier weather looks possible for more areas in the week ahead. The weekly ethanol report showed production down 14,000 barrels per day, and stocks down 758,000 on the week, helping to push ethanol futures over $1.52 as blender margins narrow. Basis has seen selling pressure from farmer movement and the higher board, but yield uncertainty and acreage uncertainty have bullish control of the market here at midday. The US export competitiveness is limited at the moment. On the July nearby chart, support is the $3.99 1/2 10-day moving average then the upper Bollinger band at $4.24 which is just below market, resistance is now the new high printed yesterday at $4.38.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 14 cents higher with trade working to consolidate recent gains and defend acres. Meal is $8 higher, and oil is flat. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal pushing back above $320. South American currencies remain cheap at the end of harvest, with the export wire quiet for the U.S. Field work should generally remain slow today but more progress is likely into next week. The higher price of corn is pulling soybean prices higher along with fears of high prevent plant acreage. The price is pushing for acres to shift to corn or milo when possible but late plantings may still force beans as the better alternative. The July chart support is the 50-day at 8.73 with the upper Bollinger Band at 8.63 below that, and resistance the 100-day at 9.03 1/2.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is 11 to 15 cents higher with Chicago trade leading as it attempts to defend the spreads that have narrowed recently and spring wheat the weakest side of the equation. Europe and the Black Sea area will be watched with dryness in the Volga Valley hotter in the near term and Russian potential remaining good overall, with spring wheat planting still catching up with disease issues in the winter wheat from wet weather and a delayed harvest. The dollar moved back into the upper part of the range. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 10-day at 4.38, and the 100-day at 4.60 the next round up, which we are just above at midday, then the $4.80 that stopped trade yesterday.
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