OMAHA (DTN)
-- The continued wet pattern, including the threat of severe
thunderstorms today in the Southern Plains and Corn Belt, and more rain
next week, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention
Thursday.
MORE RAIN ACROSS MIDWEST
The DTN ag weather forecast again calls for
excessive rainfall to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting in the
Midwest. Corn planting progress is the lowest on record for this date.
Some corn acreage will likely not get planted. Episodes of rain and
thunderstorms will continue for at least another seven days, possibly
longer, centering on the western and northern Midwest. Rain, showers and
thunderstorms appear to be heaviest centered on Nebraska and Iowa late
in the five-day period. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are
expected to average near to below normal west and above to near normal
east. Rainfall should average near to above normal.
COLD, WET PATTERN AGAIN IN NORTHERN PLAINS
In the Northern Plains, wet conditions remain
disruptive to spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get
planted. Low temperatures slow germination and early development. In
addition, Wednesday's snow in western South Dakota increases stress to
livestock.
WET AND COOL IN SOUTHERN PLAINS
In the Southern Plains, wet weather will
increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and
damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in
hardest-hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Rain delays and
disrupts planting of corn, soybean and sorghum. An exception to these
concerns is in east Colorado where dryness is reported of some concern
and temperature lows Wednesday may be of some concern for heading winter
wheat. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to be
near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should
average near to above normal, except possibly somewhat drier in
northwest and southeast areas.
WARM AND DRY IN DELTA
The Delta will have mostly dry and
warm-to-somewhat-hot weather that will improve conditions for planting.
Early developing crops will benefit from favorable soil moisture, except
in areas of local flooding.
DRY AND COOL IN PRAIRIES
The Canadian Prairies have drier conditions that
allow planting through northwest and central areas this week, while
areas closer to the U.S. border and in Manitoba may see rain slowing
progress during the week. Lower temperatures will slow germination and
emergence of earlier-planted crops and could burn back any already
emerged plants.
FAVORABLE BRAZIL CONDITIONS
In Brazil, there are no significant concerns for
filling and maturing second-crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil
moisture supports filling crops. Warm, dry weather favors maturing
crops. Rain in Parana and showers and cool conditions into Mato Grosso
do Sul may, for a time, be somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn, but
in general should favor the filling crop.
MIXED CONDITIONS IN UKRAINE
Belarus and western Ukraine have been fairly wet
recently, likely slowing spring fieldwork. South and East Ukraine have
been drier. Showers and rain should move into eastern Ukraine during the
next five to seven days. These are favorable conditions for winter
wheat. There's some delay to planting summer crops, although key growing
areas for corn and sunflower are in areas that have not been too wet
recently.
EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS
In eastern Australia wheat areas, New South
Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10
days. Temperatures will be above normal through five days and then will
be lower. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early
developing wheat will increase.
NORTH CHINA RAINS
In north China, there was general
moderate-to-heavy rain during the weekend and Monday. This will provide
adequate-to-surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and
soybeans, but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops.
Drier, hotter weather today and Friday will be followed by more rain and
cooler weather during the weekend.
HOT, DRY IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN
The North China Plain remains caught between the
heavy rain to its north and the building monsoon rainfall to the south.
This leads to periods of hot, dry weather. Filling wheat and maturing
rapeseed have adequate soil moisture and irrigation, so there is little
concern for these crops. Drier weather favors the planting effort for
corn, soybeans, rice and cotton but also depletes available soil
moisture.
EUROPE SEES MORE RAIN
A recent increase in rain through east-central
and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after
winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer
crops in the area, but also delays seasonal fieldwork. Northeast areas
had recently been drier, but during last week, this area also had needed
rain.
HOT IN INDIA
As it typical for May, India is hot to very hot
at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers
have occurred at times. The monsoon appears to be developing over the
Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas
of the Bay of Bengal.