(Dow Jones) -- The USDA gives an early forecast on Chinese wheat production for the year starting July 1, predicting a 0.6% decline to 129 million tons on anticipation that policies drive some farmers to plant other crops or rotate fields. A sizable amount of that season's crop was planted at the end of last year, but low temperatures in January and drought conditions in part of China may have damaged some of it, the agency notes. "Damage assessments will not be complete until crop emergence." Still, the USDA predicts exports will jump some 20% next season, on top of this year's predicted 33% increase.
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