To illustrate how demand can throw the market a curve, Glynn Tonsor says to look no further than 2017

That's when the industry took an uncommon turn, as demand drove fourth-quarter calf prices higher. That kind of late-market surge has happened just five times in the last 15 years.The Kansas State University beef economist explains: "Last year, we saw beef demand, both domestically and on the export market, get stronger throughout the second half of 2017. Typically, due to a higher supply of calves beginning in September and October, we see prices pull down. Given enough demand, you overcome that. The result was almost everyone last year got a better price than they thought they would."Tonsor says that fourth-quarter anomaly isn't something he expects to see repeated in 2018. He predicts this year's market to be more of a break-even environment largely because of mostly stable input costs."The cost to run a cow in 2017 was around $807," he notes. "We expect this year, that will be around $812." Clearly, drought conditions that force producers to purchase more feed could increase costs.Tonsor also believes there's opportunity for stockers this season. "There are two ways stockers do well in this market. If demand is strong and we see trade deals improve, or the global economy grows faster than projected, anyone selling a heavier animal benefits. So, those in the middle who bought calves and added weight are in a good position."The other way stockers do well is by buying discounted calves," he continues. "If I buy calves in October in a bearish market, and during the winter the outlook improves, I sell at a higher value than I bought at. The stocker sees upside, but it's a negative for the average cow/calf producer."Tonsor believes the high end of the calf market has already been set, unless some market dynamics change moving into the second half of 2018."Supply pressure going forward looks to be greater than demand," he notes. "So, if a stocker is making money, it's probably going to be because he got a cheaper calf."