The tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for wheat, rice, corn and cotton for 2021 will be at the same levels as were in place for 2020 — 7.2 million metric tons (mmt) for corn, 9.636 mmt for wheat, 5.32 mmt for rice and 894,000 metric tons for cotton.
However, China has taken actions publicly for cotton to bring in more cotton than their announced 2020 TRQ levels, announcing a 400,000 metric ton import quota for processing.
USDA signaled after the release of its WASDE report Friday that their forecast of corn imports by China at 7 mmt reflected the announced TRQ level for corn even though export commitments for corn were at more than the TRQ level of 7.2 mmt.
The TRQs announced by China are on a calendar year while the WASDE forecasts are on a marketing-year basis.
But USDA in February, after the Phase One agreement was announced, indicated they would track export sales of commodities covered by the agreement. But the comment from the Office of the Chief Economist indicating that there had not been a policy announcement from China relative to increasing the TRQ for corn indicates the agency does not appear to be sticking with their February stance that export sales would be a key factor relative to USDA's forecasts of China's purchases.
Reuters reported that while the TRQs would not be changed, they quoted a source as indicating that there could be a “special” permit for extra imports, a situation which would match what China has done on cotton.