U.S. biofuel production is expected to slowly grow through 2050, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), with economic and policy factors the key reasons for that expectation.
U.S. biofuel consumption in 2019 totaled 1.09 million barrels per day (bpd) and accounted for about 7.3% of total motor gasoline, distillate and jet fuel consumption. Ethanol production “slowly decreases between 2019 and 2030, and then it increases toward the end of the projection period, largely mirroring the Reference case projection for motor gasoline consumption,” EIA said. “The projected decline in domestic ethanol-blended gasoline consumption is offset by increasing U.S. ethanol exports.”
EIA expects that biodiesel production will rise by 30,000 bpd from 2019 to the end of the forecast period, with other biofuels will rose by 80,000 bpd.
While the biodiesel tax credit is not included in the forecast, EIA said, the renewal of the credit “is expected to increase domestic production and net imports of biomass-based diesel.”
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