USDA’s Annual Outlook Forum will take place the next two days near Washington, D.C., and a lot of attention will be placed on a series of USDA forecasts that will come out today.
The updates include the 2020 acreage expectations and price forecasts that will be delivered this morning by USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson. Those will frame the supply picture for the 2020/21 marketing year, with those outlooks due Friday morning.
The other important update will be the Outlook for U.S. Agriculture Exports which will provide USDA’s latest look for the dollar value of U.S. ag exports and imports for Fiscal Year (FY) 2020.
The attention point will be on the how much USDA chalks up to the Phase One trade deal between the U.S. and China. USDA will have to acknowledge the deal in their forecast, particularly now that the deal is in effect.
Then, USDA analysts on Friday morning will release their first run at the 2020/21 marketing year U.S. balance sheets.
But the key to keep in mind on these forecasts relative to the Phase One deal is that the agreement is on a calendar-year basis, while the forecasts due over the next two days will be a mix. The trade forecast is on a FY basis – an October-September year – while the U.S. commodity balance sheets are on a mix of marketing years.
Still, the data will provide some additional perspective on what USDA analysts expect to be a result of the Phase One deal with China.
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