U.S. agricultural exports are now forecast at $134.5 billion for Fiscal Year (FY) 2019, down $2.5 billion from May's forecast of $137 billion, according to USDA's August 2019 Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports.
If those export numbers hold they would be the lowest since FY 2016 when U.S. agricultural exports were valued at $129.6 billion. It would also mark first year since FY 2016 that exports have not reached at least $140 billion.
The value of U.S. agricultural imports held steady at a record $129 billion, the same as the May forecast. If the forecast comes to pass, it would mark three years in a row of record import values.
The decline in ag exports is forecast to put the U.S. agricultural trade surplus at just $5.3 billion, down $2.8 billion from May's forecast of $8 billion and around one third of the $15.8 billion surplus registered for FY 2018. If realized, it would be the smallest U.S. agricultural trade surplus since FY 2006 when it stood at $4.6 billion.
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