Reports that meat and livestock industry use to gauge the direction of prices, supply and demand have gone dark due to shutdown

As the government shutdown continues, reports that the meat and livestock industry use to gauge the direction of prices, supply and demand have gone dark. One such report is USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. The last such report was issued on Dec. 20. It is doubtful the government will reopen in time for the next one, scheduled for this Friday, Jan. 25. And even if it did, government analysts would not have time to crunch the numbers. Each month the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) publishes its pre-report estimates. In the absence of the government report, its data might serve as a guide to industry professionals. The Jan. 25 Cattle on Feed report would have reflected December feedlot marketings and placements (lots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more). The LMIC’s estimates that marketings were slower in December relative to a year ago, based on estimated daily slaughter. USDA has not released actual weekly slaughter numbers since Dec. 8, 2018. “While the estimated slaughter data is better than no data, there is a large difference in precision,” warned the LMIC. Still, the group estimates marketings of cattle for slaughter in December were about 99.5 percent of year-ago marketings. LMIC estimates there were slightly more cattle placed on feed in December than a year ago, noting feeder cattle imports from Mexico and Canada were about 25,000 head higher year over year. Auction receipts showed strong volumes relative to a year ago, both pointing to more placements. It noted, however, that placements could have been somewhat tempered by extremely muddy conditions in feedlots, especially in Nebraska and Kansas. LMIC estimates that placements during December were 100.6 percent of a year ago. This would have been the highest December placement number since 2010, and would put the number of cattle on feed as of Jan. 1 at 102.1 percent of a year ago.