Washington Insider: Food Program Rules could Endanger Farm Bill

Well, the big news ahead is that many of the same old fights will continue in spite of election results—for example, a few notables have opined that the proposed farm bill may move quickly to a vote “during the lame-duck session of Congress,” depending on the president “easing off stricter work requirements,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, told the press recently.The president has previously tweeted his support for tighter Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) work requirements and asked Congress to pass the farm bill with those provisions. The Sept. 30 expiration of the current law “puts out to pasture” a number of programs that don’t have budget baselines. This has led lawmakers to acknowledge that they have until December, when the first commodity program expires, to complete a bill.Still, there’s much more than the farm bill on the new Democratic to-do list, Bloomberg says. It includes an ambitious infrastructure program, fixes to the Affordable Care Act, and an initiative to encourage voting and small donors. The party also may work to strike early deals on trade, prescription drug prices, and possibly changes to the immigration system.Bloomberg, along with most others, says they are looking for more partisan friction and gridlock under the expanded Republican Senate majority. This is partly because House Democrats say they plan to revive the oversight role of Congress, a task they say has been ignored by the Republicans over the last two years.Among the areas they say they will focus on are Russian interference in the 2016 elections, ethical lapses at the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s plans to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census. Strategists in both parties already are warning that the opportunity for legislative deals will be short-lived.More likely to attract bipartisan interest is the infrastructure plan that Democratic leaders unveiled in anticipation that Trump’s own proposal would get traction in the current Congress. The administration’s $200 billion plan primarily focused on transportation stalled amid concerns it lacked adequate funding and revenue sources. The plan Democrats want is five times that amount — $1 trillion — and also calls for upgrades to water systems, broadband, schools, and more, Bloomberg says.Democrats have proposed deficit spending to cover infrastructure spending but it’s not clear either side is willing to increase the federal gas tax to pay for upgrades.The House and Senate also will consider the new trade agreement that Trump negotiated with Mexico and Canada to update the North American Free Trade Act and possibly other trade deals.In addition, lawmakers haven’t ruled out another attempt to negotiate an immigration overhaul package, including a solution for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program to allow undocumented children brought to the U.S. as children to avoid deportation. Complicating any deal, however, are Trump’s demands for $25 billion in border wall money and more recent threats to do away with birthright citizenship.A even tougher fight likely will concern Democrats’ plans to save or expand protections under the Affordable Care Act, including stabilizing the health insurance markets and insuring chronically ill people. Although GOP candidates in the 2018 campaign promised to protect coverage for pre-existing conditions, they also defended previous efforts to kill the law. Democrats said they might try to strike deals with the administration to reduce prescription drug prices.Efforts to expand benefits or boost infrastructure are set to bump up against a growing realization that the federal budget deficit is likely to hit the $1 trillion level next year as the 2017 tax law is projected to further reduce federal revenue.The ballooning deficit and federal debt are likely to be center stage this spring, when leaders will have to start negotiating a way to raise the nation’s borrowing authority. Congress has suspended the debt ceiling until March 1, although Treasury has tools to delay that deadline.“Whatever happens, Congress has to do something with the debt limit, now probably by March 1,” said William Hoagland, former Republican Senate Budget Committee chief of staff who is now executive vice president of the Bipartisan Policy Center. “They just can’t avoid it.” To even maintain funding levels, they would have to raise the caps by $50 billion in both 2020 and 2021 — which adds another $100 billion to the deficit, Hoagland said.Democrats probably won’t try to upend the 2017 tax law and they may even work with the GOP to make some changes, such as repealing the cap on state and local deductions. But don’t look for them to consider the GOP’s follow-on Tax Reform 2.0 plan that includes a bill to make permanent individual tax cuts or Trump’s recent call for a new middle class tax cut, Bloomberg says.Bloomberg also notes that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has said little about his legislative agenda or how he will react to House initiatives like the infrastructure plan. For now, the GOP leader wants to clear the decks of some 150 Trump nominees awaiting confirmation votes and prepare for even more next year. Still, McConnell has hinted he will pressure Democrats to ratchet back their plans and “even cut Medicare and Social Security.”So, we will see. The stage seems to be set for continued long and bitter fights for the foreseeable future, including many that affect agriculture and which should be watched closely by producers as they emerge, Washington Insider believes.