China is home to 500 million pigs — more than the combined number of pigs that inhabit the rest of the world. Many of China’s pigs are raised in the backyards of small independent farmers. Those independent farmers trade freely amongst themselves. They take their animals for slaughter on the streets in open-air “wet” markets. Biosecurity controls and cold storage capabilities are minimal.
If that’s the kindling, then African Swine Fever (ASF) is the fire.
From the beginning of August to Oct. 19, at least 45 outbreaks spanning large distances over China’s landscape had caused 862 pig deaths and the culling of at least 38,980 more pigs, according to official counts of the World Organization for Animal Health. And as the Chinese government works to minimize the damage, the world is bracing for impact.
“With any foreign animal disease, we’ve all used the [saying] that it’s not ‘if’ but ‘when,’” says Dr. Paul Sundberg, executive director of the Swine Health Information Center in Ames, Iowa.
Granted, it could be a long “when.” The United States hasn’t had a case of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) since 1929, for example. But the threat of ASF is real, and there currently is no certified vaccination to combat it.
“The outbreak in China changes the game for African Swine Fever,” Sundberg says. “… [W]ith the type of production they have and the type of trade [the United States has] with China … I think that has changed the pressure on the United States on the likelihood of introduction here.”
The not-if-but-when scenario is perhaps the closest thing to certainty in an ever-changing situation ripe mostly for best guesses. Along with new advances of ASF in Europe, which has been dogged by the disease for the last decade, China’s problems have animal health officials, border regulators, as well as meat importers and exporters preparing for their response.