Washington Insider: Is It Natural?

The urban press, including the New York Times, has a hard time with agricultural basics including what is milk, and even what is meat. Recently it reasoned that one bright spot in an otherwise lackluster market for packaged foods, beverages and consumer products has been merchandise promoted as "natural." And, since consumers mistrust ordinary supermarket goods and are paying premium prices for "natural" goods, from fruit juices and cereals to shampoos and baby wipes. The Times sort of argues that something consumers are demanding should be clearly definable and defined.For example, it says that "a spate of lawsuits and consumer advocacy efforts show, one person's "natural" is another person's methylisothiazolinone." It suggests that this confusion is the government's fault. The problem, consumer groups and even some manufacturers say, is that there is no legal or regulatory definition of what "natural" is. And, it reasons—wrongly—that the debate in many ways echoes the tussling in the 1990s over the word "organic," when food makers played fast and loose with the term and frustrated consumers tried to make sense of it all.And, so, the Times says, USDA, tasked with creating an "organic" program, was pestered by consumers, farmers, manufacturers and states as it developed a definition, guidelines and a "certification" process— not a standard, but a certificate.Today, the Times thinks, while regulators are weighing whether to define the term "natural," the lack of clarity for over the past decade has resulted in a freewheeling, and litigious, environment.On one side are companies eager to cash in on consumers' willingness to pay higher prices for natural products by slapping "all natural" labels on them. At times, the claims have stretched the limits of credulity — like "All Natural" 7Up, Pop-Tarts "Baked with Real Fruit" and Crystal Light "Natural" lemonade. (Some labels like these were eventually changed.)"The lawsuits you see are only a fraction of the claims that are made," said David Biderman, a partner at Perkins Coie who defends food companies in class-action lawsuits. Behind the scenes, Biderman said, plaintiffs' lawyers are sending letters to companies and threatening to file lawsuits over labels they argue are misleading or violate consumer protection laws. Those letters, Biderman said, are often rejected, go away or are resolved with a small payment.Whether the lawsuits are necessary, or a nuisance, depends on whom you ask.Corporations, lawyers say, have been reluctant to allow a case to go to trial and risk having a legal definition of "natural" emerge — which might set standards companies would have to meet. As a result, the bulk of the lawsuits filed over the past decade have been settled, dismissed or, more recently, stayed by judges who hope regulators will step in with a definition."We're really getting into splitting hairs about what is natural and what's not," said Maia Kats, the director of litigation for the Center for Science in the Public Interest, a public advocacy group has been involved in a handful of lawsuits over so-called natural products.A survey of consumers in 2015 by Consumer Reports magazine showed that at least 60% of respondents believed "natural" on packaged and processed foods meant they contained no artificial colors or ingredients and no genetically modified materials."About two-thirds of consumers surveyed think that natural on a food package means no pesticides were used," said Charlotte Vallaeys, a senior policy analyst with Consumers Union, the advocacy division of Consumer Reports. "They're confusing it with organic," which prohibits nearly all pesticides from use on food products.The fact is that for terms like "natural" or even "healthy" it is extremely difficult -- maybe impossible --to come up with exclusive definitions. In late 2015, the United States Food and Drug Administration sought feedback from consumers and the industry on whether it should define and regulate the word "natural" on food labeling.More than 7,600 comments flooded in. Some consumers wanted the word banned from all food labeling. Others asked that the term be defined simply-whatever that might mean."We recognize that consumers are trusting in products labeled 'natural' without clarity around the term," Scott Gottlieb, the commissioner of the FDA said. "Consumers have called upon the FDA to help define the term 'natural' and we take the responsibility to provide this clarity seriously. We will have more to say on the issue soon." We will see.Still, lawyers say that until regulators come up with a definition, the not-so-natural dance among consumers, manufacturers and lawyers will continue.Well, maybe Consumers Union is right—if you can't define a term, don't allow it. It is pretty hard to imagine what a completely natural processed food would look like. Maybe FDA should give up the pretense, and simply ban it—unless some genius finds something far more meaningful, Washington Insider believes. 

Senate Confirms Bill Northey to USDA Position

Senate Ag Committee Chair Pat Robers was pleased to announce that the Senate has confirmed Iowa Ag Secretary Bill Northey to a position with the USDA. After he is sworn in, he’ll serve as the Under Secretary of Agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services within the USDA. “I’m pleased the Senate advanced his nomination,” Roberts says, “and I have no doubt he will be a champion for farmers and ranchers at USDA.” The Senate Ag Committee held a hearing on the Northey nomination back on October 5, where the nomination was approved by bipartisan voice vote. Northey had the support of more than 60 farm and ranch organizations. Texas Senator Ted Cruz had placed a hold on the Northey nomination in an attempt to force changes to the Renewable Fuels Standard, which he and a handful of refiners blame for hurting jobs in that sector. Northey was thankful that the process has been completed. “It’s a tremendous honor for me to be confirmed as an Under Secretary of Agriculture,” he says, “and while the process took longer than expected, I’m excited as ever to work with Secretary Perdue and the USDA staff to support our nation’s farmers and ranchers.”

No Deal After White House Biofuels Meeting

A Reuters article says there was no agreement in a meeting between lawmakers and Cabinet members regarding the Renewable Fuels Standard. President Donald Trump had called for a meeting between the two sides who have been feuding over the current state of the renewable fuels law. The decade-old policy was intended to help farmers and reduce the nation’s petroleum imports. However, a refining company in the key electoral state of Pennsylvania blamed the RFS as the cause for it having to recently file for bankruptcy. Iowa Republican Charles Grassley took to Twitter after the meeting, saying “No deal made.” Other lawmakers at the meeting included Joni Ernst of Iowa, as well as Ted Cruz of Texas and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Other than the Grassley tweet, there were no other comments immediately after the meeting. Philadelphia Energy Solutions employs more than 1,000 people and says the law forced it into bankruptcy protection. However, Reuters has reported that a $590 million withdrawal in dividend-style payments from the company to its investors likely played a big role in the filing. Other refineries, including RFS opponent Valero, are pulling in solid profit margins in spite of the regulation. 

Judge Rules Against California’s Prop 65 Glyphosate Label

A U.S. District Court Judge in the eastern California district issued a preliminary injunction that prohibits the state from implementing a “false and misleading” Prop 65 labeling requirement for glyphosate. The judge cited harm to the nation’s economy as a reason for issuing the injunction. Over a dozen agricultural groups as well, as 11 attorneys general across the U.S., came together to seek the injunction. The labeling requirement will now be postponed until the court issues a final ruling on the matter. Chandler Goule (rhymes with cool), National Wheat Growers Association CEO, was the lead plaintiff in the case. He says glyphosate is a vital tool that growers need to put food on America’s tables. The judge’s statements said, “As it applies to glyphosate, the required warnings are false and misleading. Given the heavy weight of evidence in the record that glyphosate is not in fact known to cause cancer, the required warning is factually inaccurate and controversial.” Glyphosate is approved by the Environmental Protection Agency for use in over 250 agricultural crops throughout the United States.

No Drastic SNAP Changes Expected in Senate Farm Bill

Politico says the Senate is not expected to make any drastic changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program as it works to reauthorize the farm bill. Those comments came from Senate Ag Chair Pat Roberts during a speech before anti-hunger advocates on Tuesday morning. While speaking to the National Anti-Hunger Policy Conference, Roberts said again that he’ll oppose efforts to introduce block grants to SNAP. He defended the program as an important part of the farm bill and one that’s essential to garner the needed votes to pass a farm bill. “I think we can make efficiencies,” he says, “but we’re not going to drastically change the program.” That was his answer to a question about the “Harvest Box” concept proposed by the White House in its fiscal 2019 budget. He says there are a lot of things to take care of before even looking at the Harvest Box idea as a potential pilot program, calling it “way down the list.” The chair of the House Ag Committee’s subcommittee on nutrition called the idea of a Harvest Box a “bad idea that’s getting more attention than it deserves.

Still Time to be Counted in the 2017 Census of Agriculture

Farmers and ranchers still have time to participate in the 2017 Census of Agriculture. Although the first deadline just passed, the National Ag Statistics Service will continue to accept Census information through this spring. The goal is to get a complete picture of American agriculture that represents all farmers and ranchers. NASS administrator Hubert Hamer says they currently have a little over 40 percent of the three million questionnaires that were sent out. “A lot is at stake if producers aren’t represented in this data,” he says. “Census data has and will continue to influence important policy decisions for American agriculture.” He says the Census data will affect every operation and every farming community at some point, whether through farm policy, disaster relief, insurance or loan programs, and a variety of other ways. Federal law mandates that everyone who received the 2017 Census of Agriculture questionnaire should complete and return it, even if they’re currently not farming. Farmers and ranchers are asked to return them by mail or fill out their answers online at www.agcounts.usda.gov. 

Perdue applauds Senate’s long-awaited confirmation of Bill Northey

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today applauded the Senate’s long-awaited confirmation of Bill Northey as USDA’s Under Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Service (FFAS).“Bill will come aboard at a crucial time, as his knowledge and expertise will be immediately put to use as the new Farm Bill is formulated to address the needs of American farmers,” said Perdue. “In addition, his leadership will be key in the newly-constituted mission area, where the Farm Service Agency, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the Risk Management Agency will be providing an even better customer experience.  I am excited to finally have Bill on board.”As part of a reorganization of USDA, Secretary Perdue has created, the President appointed, and the Senate confirmed a new Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, as directed by the 2014 Farm Bill.  The creation of the new mission area prompted the realignment of several agencies under a newly-named Under Secretary for Farm Production and Conservation (FPAC), the position for which Northey is intended. FPAC will encompass the USDA’s domestic-facing agencies: the Farm Service Agency, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the Risk Management Agency. 

USDA Assistance Focuses on Soil Health in Montana’s Musselshell River Watershed

BOZEMAN, Mont., February 27, 2017 – Major flooding in the Musselshell River watershed in 2011, along with isolated ice jam flooding from 2013 to 2017, has left much of the Montana watershed with severely degraded soil health. Agricultural producers in the watershed are encouraged to participate in the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) to protect these fragile soils. Through a localized initiative, USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) is making EQIP funding available to address soil health and erosion concerns in Wheatland, Golden Valley, and Musselshell counties. NRCS will prioritize conservation planning assistance to focus on practices that improve soil health near the Musselshell River flood plain. While EQIP applications are accepted year-round, applications for this local initiative must be received by March 30, 2018, to be considered for this funding period. “NRCS technical and financial assistance helps landowners develop infrastructure and implement management practices for better soil health,” said Tom Hedt, acting state conservationist for Montana. “Healthy soil improves soil stability, decreases erosion, and increases water quality and quantity in our rivers among many other benefits.” 

Average cattle feeding margins slipped $32 per head last week

Average cattle feeding margins slipped $32 per head (16%) last week, as closeouts finished with $174 average profits. The decline was the result of a $2 per cwt. dip in cash fed cattle prices. Packer margins jumped $46 per head with average per head profits at $65, according to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker.The 5-area average Choice steer price last week was $127.80, down $2.08 per cwt. The price of feeder cattle calculated against the fed cattle sales were $153.84 per cwt., or $0.54 per cwt. higher. The cost of finishing a steer last week was calculated at $1,604, which is $163 higher than the $1,441 a year ago. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing Inc., Vale, Ore.A month ago cattle feeders were earning $251 per head, while a year ago profits were calculated at $290 per head. Feeder cattle represent 74% of the cost of finishing a steer, about the same as last year.Farrow-to-finish pork producers saw their margins decline $7 per head to $19. Lean carcass prices traded at $66.14 per cwt., a decline of $3.34 from the previous week. A year ago pork producers earned an average of $33 per head. Pork packer margins improved $10 per head to $18.Cash prices for fed cattle are $3 per cwt. higher than the same week a year ago. Lean hog prices are about $8 per cwt. lower than last year.Sterling Marketing president John Nalivka projects cash profit margins for cow-calf producers in 2018 will average $122 per cow. That would be $36 per head less than the estimated average profit of $158 for 2017. Estimated average cow-calf margins were $438 per cow in 2015.For feedyards, Nalivka projects an average profit of $86 per head in 2018, which would be $150 less than the average of $236 per head in 2017. Nalivka expects packer margins to average about $90 per head in 2018, down from $123 in 2017.For farrow-to-finish pork producers, Nalivka projects 2018 profit margins will average $18.25 per head, compared to $20.87 in 2017. Pork packers are projected to earn $19 per head in 2018, down slightly from $25 profit per head in 2017. 

Agriculture Watching Steel-Aluminum Trade Situation

Ag market traders are closely watching whether President Donald Trump and his trade officials this week announce long-awaited trade policy moves against China and others. Bloomberg on Friday published an article, "Trump Favors Commerce's Harshest Steel and Aluminum Tariffs, Sources Say" that noted "Trump has said he wants to slap a global tariff of 24% on steel imports, the most severe of three options presented to him in a report in January.He's also considering as much as a 10% duty on all aluminum entering the U.S., which would be more than 2.5 percentage points higher than the harshest of Commerce's recommendations." Axios reports the Bloomberg account is "accurate, but with one small tweak: Sources [say] the president has told confidants he actually wants a 25% global tariff on steel because it's a round number and sounds better." An investigation into Chinese trade and business practices by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer could also trigger a reaction from Beijing.

USDA May Have Some Announcements on US-China Trade This Week

The Commodity Classic is on this week, and the corn-soybean gathering could be the format for USDA to roll out details of its plans on U.S. soybean shipments to China.Recall that on Jan. 1, new rules went into effect on foreign matter content in those shipments and USDA said it would be developing a plan to put in place throughout the U.S. soybean system to meet those requirements.

Washington Insider: Infrastructure Program's Impacts

There is a bitter fight underway in Washington now on infrastructure, and what the administration program would do and what it would actually accomplish. The concept is complicated, and would rely on both public and private funding.This week, the Washington Post is charging what others also have claimed that the President is overselling the financial impact of his plan by a large amount.When the White House unveiled its program it claimed a $1.5 trillion impact through a $200 billion federal investment, the Post said. The White House said the other $1.3 trillion would come from new state, local and private spending "unleashed by its spending plan."Now, people are hard at work checking on the details. For example, the Penn Wharton Budget Model team found that the new federal investment would lead at most to an additional $30 billion in state, local and private spending, or about 2% of the amount envisioned by the White House."We really tried to be generous here," said Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model. "But what the literature says is that states will figure out how to qualify for these grants without changing their existing behavior."The White House did not welcome the Penn Wharton results, arguing that it failed to account for global investments in U.S. infrastructure."The author of the study clearly failed to read the President's framework," a White House spokeswoman charged, and they "got the policy flat wrong. Furthermore, they view the U.S. economy as closed and assume there is no growth with this investment, even though it is abundantly clear that the economy is booming under President Trump's pro-jobs, pro-growth agenda."But both liberal and conservative economists have panned the White House's $1.5 trillion number as based on "rosy assumptions unlikely to come to fruition.""I think it's basically spot-on," Michael Sargent, a policy analyst on infrastructure at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said of the Penn-Wharton study. "When you're looking at total spending, it seems about right."Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who served as President George W. Bush's chief economist and remains influential in Republican circles, said he thought Penn-Wharton's $230 billion number was probably on the low side. But he agreed that the model was essentially fair and that the White House's $1.5 trillion number is way too high."I think they're making a fair point: How the states respond matters, and there's no guarantee that they'll pony up an additional $1.3 trillion," said Holtz-Eakin, who is president of the American Action Forum, a conservative advocacy organization. "The major problem with the plan is selling it as $1.5 trillion. If they sold it as, 'We can identify some really good infrastructure projects without giving a number,' everyone would look at it and say, 'Yeah, that makes sense.'"The White House proposes that $100 billion would go to competitive projects, administered by the federal government, with awards of up to 20% of their costs. Under the proposal, states and localities would have to find new sources of revenue -- the White House has suggested property or sales taxes -- to qualify for the federal help. White House officials have also floated raising money for the plan by increasing tolls or other user fees.The other $100 billion in the plan is split into $50 billion for rural infrastructure programs, $20 billion for "transformative" projects like tunnels for high-speed rails, and $30 billion to expand loan programs.Still, banking on states to come up with the rest of the cash is also an imperfect solution, economists said. Part of the problem is that even if they produce the money to get the new federal grants, they are likely to offset that increase by reducing infrastructure spending elsewhere."I'm not surprised at the conclusion that very little additional spending will be called forth by this plan," said Douglas Elmendorf, who served as director of the Congressional Budget Office under President Barack Obama, adding that he had not personally reviewed the Penn-Wharton model. "State and local governments are constrained in their funds more than the federal government, because they generally have to balance their books on an annual basis."Wharton's projections were based on more than two dozen academic studies on federal infrastructure spending, according to Smetters, the Wharton economist. One of the more optimistic academic papers was a 1974 study that found that states increase their total spending by $1.06 for every federal dollar received. But subsequent studies found much lower effects, Smetters said.So, we will see. The administration is banking heavily on the overall impacts of the changes both to cut deficits and to generate investment. The infrastructure upgrades are very important for producers, who depend on efficient commodity movement to maintain competitiveness overseas. As a result, it is not so much who is right and who wrong in this fight, but whether we really can make over our facilities. This is a high-stakes battle for producers who should watch carefully as it proceeds, Washington Insider believes. 

Add two new words to your agricultural lexicon -- Corteva Agriscience

(DTN) -- The name will grace the new agriculture company spun off from the 2017 merger of Dow and DuPont. It will house the seed, pesticide and digital service holdings of DuPont Crop Protection, DuPont Pioneer and Dow AgroSciences.You have until the expected spin-off date of June 2019 to memorize the new name, which combines the Latin word for heart ("cor") and the Hebrew word for nature ("teva"). Historians might note that this Roman-Jewish mash-up is a curious choice for a marriage of companies, given the intense mutual animosity between the ancient Romans and the ancient Jews.But the new company's leadership is blithely optimistic."This is the start of an exciting journey," James Collins, chief operating officer of the new agricultural company, said in a news release. "With the most balanced portfolio of products in the industry, nearly a century of agronomic expertise and an unparalleled innovation engine, Corteva Agriscience will become a leading agriculture company, focused on working together with the entire food system to produce a secure supply of healthy food."Corteva Agriscience will be a giant in the agrichemical and seed industry, worth more than $14 billion in combined revenues last year. Its sizeable portfolio contains herbicides, fungicides, insecticides and seed in 11 different crops, including corn, soybeans, cotton and wheat. That includes Enlist corn, cotton and soybeans engineered to tolerate 2,4-D and glyphosate, as well as high oleic Plenish soybeans.Corteva will also house the farm management software company Granular, which DuPont acquired in August 2017.The company's corporate headquarters will be in Wilmington, Delaware, with "global business centers" in Indianapolis, the former headquarters of Dow AgroSciences, and Johnston, Iowa, where DuPont Pioneer was based.Two other companies will emerge from the DowDuPont merger. One is a materials science company based in Midland, Michigan, which will keep the Dow name and its red diamond logo. The final spinoff, a specialty products company, will keep the DuPont name and be based in Wilmington, Delaware. 

Pruitt and Perdue Present RFS Proposal to Trump

Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruit and Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue met with President Trump today (on Monday) and presented a package of potential changes to the Renewable Fuels Standard. Politico reports the proposal is aimed at ending a squabble between corn farmers and oil refining firms over the program. The proposals include capping the price paid for biofuels credits, which are called Renewable Identification Numbers, as well as a year-round waiver for the sale of E-15 ethanol blends. Other ideas include creating credits for exported ethanol, as well as a transparency measure intended to cut Wall Street investors out of trading in the program. All of these changes would be executed administratively, rather than through legislation. The pitch comes a day ahead of a meeting that Trump is scheduled to host with corn-state and oil-patch lawmakers. The guest list includes Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst of Iowa, Ted Cruz of Texas, and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, all of whom are Republicans. Chief of Staff John Kelly and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn will also be there.

Farm Groups Caution Against a Weaker RFS

A day ahead of a Tuesday meeting in the White House regarding the Renewable Fuels Standard, the National Farmers Union and five other prominent groups are urging President Trump to avoid changes that would weaken the RFS. The meeting brings together key lawmakers and Cabinet members to discuss the escalating tensions over the RFS between oil and ethanol interests. The farm groups sent the letter on how important a strong RFS is to rural America, which is coping with a severely depressed farm economy. NFU President Roger Johnson says, “We wanted to remind the president of the promises he made to farmers and rural communities as he meets with senior administration officials and lawmakers”. The letter also points out that as the rural economy continues to struggle, most oil refiners are experiencing an economic boom, as well as significant gains from recent tax changes. Recent claims from an east coast refiner that the RFS caused it to file for bankruptcy brought about the meeting on Tuesday. The letter from the farm groups points out that the bankruptcy is “the hallmark of poor business decisions and a willingness to put investor returns ahead of refinery jobs.”

Pressure Mounting in Mexico for NAFTA Round Seven

A report from Politico says the outcome of the North American Freee Trade Agreement talks in Mexico could hinge on U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The question is whether Lighthizer and the administration will be willing to work with some of Canada’s recent offers and others that Mexico will likely make this week. Speaking of Mexico, the planned meeting between President Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto in Washington, D.C., was canceled after the two leaders clashed on the phone recently. The disagreement came about because of Trump sticking by his demand that Mexico pays for a border wall between the two countries. That news, via the Washington Post over the weekend, doesn’t seem like it would help either side be more likely to give their representatives a green light to give some ground in Mexico City. A former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. told the Post, “The problem is that President Trump has painted himself and President Pena Nieto into a corner.” Business and industry sources say if U.S. Trade Rep Lighthizer doesn’t demonstrate that the U.S. is willing to compromise in spite of the disagreement over the border wall, the goal of finishing the talks at all, let alone by the end of March, feels like it might be a long way off.

Trump Says Re-entering TPP is “possible”

A Bloomberg report says President Trump would consider re-joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the U.S. could negotiate more favorable terms. Trump made the announcement during a joint news conference with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last Friday. “TPP was a very bad deal for the United States,” said Trump. “There’s a possibility we could be going back in if offered better terms.” Turnbull was expected to encourage the president to renew talks on a Pacific trade pact. Trump has said in the past that he prefers bilateral trade deals over multi-nation trade pacts. He pointed to the trade deal between Australia and the U.S., calling it a “model” for other nations to follow. A group of 25 Republican Senators sent a letter to Trump last Friday asking him to “re-engage with the Trans-Pacific Partnership.” The letter says, “We encourage you to work aggressively to secure the reforms needed that would allow the United States to rejoin the agreement. Increased economic engagement with the 11 nations currently in TPP would substantially improve the competitiveness of U.S. business, support millions of U.S. jobs, increase exports, increase wages, and benefit consumers.”

USDA Talks to Grocers About the “Harvest Box”

The USDA public relations campaign surrounding the harvest box idea has gone before a group of the nation’s biggest grocery suppliers. Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue says they’re talking with grocers about their role in a proposal to replace some food stamp allocations with prepackaged boxes of groceries. Perdue told reporters last week that grocers are already adding the delivery service that the “Harvest Box” would require. The proposal would represent one of the biggest shakeups in the history of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also known as food stamps. “We have some ideas on how the retailers could participate in this ideas,” Perdue says. “Rather than dismiss it out of hand, let’s discuss how it can be improved.” Perdue didn’t name any specific groups of retailers that USDA had contacted about the idea. The Harvest Box idea would cut down on cash payments and substitute them with packages of food, including cereal, pasta, canned fruit, and meat. While the administration says the proposal would save $129 billion over ten years, it’s come under fire. The program would present logistical challenges as a distribution setup. The plan has also come under fire for stigmatizing the poor and returning U.S. social-service policies to Great Depression food handout programs. 

Mexico and Canada aim to finish reworking less contentious chapters of the NAFTA trade deal

Mexico and Canada aim to finish reworking less contentious chapters of the NAFTA trade deal with the United States in new talks that began on Sunday, hoping to clear the path for a breakthrough on the toughest issues before upcoming elections.In six months, negotiators have made progress on the technical details of a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement, but made little advance on strong demands for change made by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.Ranging from calls for major changes to automotive content rules and dispute resolution mechanisms, to imposing a clause that could automatically kill NAFTA after five years, the chief stumbling blocks laid by the White House look unlikely to be removed in the latest Mexico City round, officials said.Trump frequently threatens to walk away from NAFTA unless big changes are made to a pact he blames for U.S. manufacturing job losses.“I think there’s going to be major progress on the technical issues and major obstacles on the critical issues,” Bosco de la Vega, head of the Mexico’s National Agricultural Council farm lobby, said of the talks running until March 5.Once agreement is reached on technical chapters such as state-owned enterprises, barriers to trade and e-commerce, about 10 percent of the modernized accord would eventually be left over for political leaders to work out, de la Vega estimated.A schedule for the latest round showed that the discussions for the first three days would include rules of origin, an issue at the heart of the Trump administration’s demand to raise the amount of auto content sourced from the NAFTA region.Under NAFTA, at least 62.5 percent of the net cost of a passenger car or light truck must originate in the region to avoid tariffs. Trump wants the threshold raised to 85 percent.“You can’t have a successful negotiation if there’s no change to the rules of origin,” said a Mexican official, speaking on condition of anonymity, adding: “It won’t be 85 percent. We’re not sure what the number is going to be.”Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo has said his negotiating team aims to present a proposal on rules of origin, although he has not provided details.On Sunday evening, the Mexican official told Reuters: “We don’t have a counterproposal yet.”Any final agreement would need to be reached between Trump and auto-sector leaders in the United States who oversee the NAFTA region, an industry source close to the process said.The North American auto industry has pushed back against Trump’s demands, arguing they would damage competitiveness and regional supply chains.Mexico aims to build on the previous round in Montreal, when Canada floated proposals to address U.S. demands, including one to include costs for engineering, research and development and other items in the total value of an auto.The schedule showed that several chapters that negotiators have signaled are close to concluding, including e-commerce, telecommunications and energy, are up for discussion toward the end of the round. Financial services will last for three days.NO QUICK FIXThe latest round comes amid flare-ups between Washington and Ottawa and growing, if cautious, optimism in Mexico that the trade agreement will remain.Talks are running behind schedule and some officials believe the longer they last, the less likely it is that Trump will dump NAFTA.Negotiators had wanted to wrap up talks by March to avoid them being politicized by Mexico’s July presidential election. U.S. congressional elections in November could also complicate the talks.But officials have raised the possibility that they will run past Mexico’s vote, and some said they could continue at a technical level for several months if necessary.A U.S. official said: “There has never been a hard deadline,” and belief is growing among Mexicans following the process that lobbying efforts by U.S. business leaders and politicians to preserve NAFTA have been gaining traction.The office of Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton on Friday published a letter sent this month to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in which he urged him to “preserve and expand market access” under NAFTA, and build on existing ties.While pledging to stay in the talks, Canada’s chief negotiator, Steve Verheul, struck a downbeat tone last week, telling a business audience: “There are large gaps between what we’re trying to achieve and what the U.S. is trying to achieve.” 

Demand for meat is going to remain firm throughout the rest of 2018

(DTN) -- Demand for meat is going to remain firm throughout the rest of 2018, and U.S. livestock producers will continue to see favorable feed prices. But livestock producers are going to be pressured on market prices for beef, hogs and poultry products because of increased production in most livestock sectors.That's the projection from USDA's outlook for livestock and poultry released early Friday.The beef, pork and broiler industries are all positioned for higher production and expansion. Exports also will rise for beef, pork and poultry products as well, USDA predicts.BEEFBeef production will increase in 2018 as the total cattle inventory, cow herd and calf crop in 2017 all increased, even though a 4% decline year-over-year in heifer placements indicates a slower rate of expansion. The number of cattle-on-feed in feedlots as of Jan. 1 was 14 million head, up 7.2% from a year ago, but the number of cattle outside of feedlots was down 2.3% from a year earlier.Beef production in 2018 is forecast at 27.7 billion pounds, a 5.9% increase from 2017. Steer and heifer slaughter in 2018 is projected to be higher than 2017, as is the cow slaughter. Total commercial slaughter is projected to rise 4-5%, and carcass weights will increase as well as feedlot operators take advantage of relatively favorable feed costs for 2018.Beef exports will top 3 billion pounds in 2018, up 5.7% from 2017. Asian markets are going strong with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong as the leading markets, accounting for 57% of exports in 2017 and projected to continue to carry demand in 2018 as well.The U.S. also will import 3 billion pounds of beef, up 1.2% from 2017. Higher shipments are expected from Australia and Mexico.The five-area Nebraska steer price for 2018 is projected at $116 to $123 per hundredweight (cwt), down 2% on average from 2017. Prices bumped up in January, but will ease down into the spring as more cattle hit slaughter-ready weights.PORKConditions remain favorable for growth in pork production as new slaughter plants are expected to come online to increase capacity throughout the year. Producers also are increasing the farrowing of sows, and increases in pig litter sizes will support larger swine production.Pork production in 2018 is projected to reach 26.9 billion pounds, topping last year's record. USDA sees increased slaughter inventories and heavier carcass weights boosting overall commercial pork production 5.1% higher than 2017.Pork exports will reach 5.9 billion pounds, almost 5% higher than 2017 as well. Lower pork prices and firm global demand for meat proteins are expected to drive U.S. pork exports. Japan and Mexico, which accounted for 50% of U.S. pork exports last year, are expected to again see strong demand. South Korean exports also rose 29% in 2017 and are expected to remain strong as well.Pork imports are projected at 1 billion pounds, down 10.2% from 2017.U.S. hog prices are forecast at $47-$49 per cwt, down from the 2017 average of $50.48. Although demand will remain strong, higher production will put pressure to lower prices this year.POULTRYThe broiler industry also is responding to good margins in the second half of 2017 and early 2018. Heavier bird weights and increased inventories are the primary factors behind more growth in the broiler sector.Broiler production will increase 2.3% to 42.6 billion pounds in 2018. U.S. broiler exports are expected to increase 2.5% to nearly 7 billion pounds. Gains are expected from the reopening of the South Korean market in late 2017. Higher shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean and Central America also will boost broiler exports.Turkey production will decline slightly to 6 billion pounds. Producer margins declined in 2016 and continued in 2017, leading to lower production. Exports, though, will help boost the turkey sector. After rising 9% in 2017, exports will increase nearly 3.9% in 2018 to 645 million pounds. Mexico remains the largest market for U.S. turkey.Egg production is projected at 8.9 billion dozen, up 2.1% from 2017. Egg exports will decline slightly to 320 million dozen. 

White House Economist Dodges NAFTA Withdrawal Questions

Kevin Hasset, Chief White House Economist, attacked the integrity of past and present government officials who have negotiated U.S. trade agreements. However, he declined to say if the U.S. would be better off economically should President Trump withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement. The question at a White House briefing was, “Would it be a good thing for the U.S. economy” if Trump walks away from the deal, which he’s threatened to do numerous times. Hasset, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, answered the question by referring reporters to the trade chapter of the newly-released annual economic report of the president. The report doesn’t actually discuss the costs or benefits of withdrawing from NAFTA. A Politico report says Hassett, a former economist with the Federal Reserve Board, says he is, “surprised at how right the president has been about trade in one sense: America’s trade deals are asymetric. The U.S. charges pretty much no tariff at all on imports, but many of our trading partners have either high tariffs or high non-tariff barriers.” He says the president is right to prioritize improving those deals. The seventh round of the NAFTA talks start this weekend in Mexico City.

Governors Lobby for NAFTA Conclusion

Governors from more than 40 states are in Washington, D.C., this weekend for their annual winter meeting. International issues like the future of trade will be among the topics they’ll cover, as well as the future of food and agriculture. The timing coincides with the start of the seventh round of NAFTA talks, which begin in Mexico City on Sunday. A CTV News website says the governors are adding their voices to the deal’s supporters, who are calling for caution when it comes to a possible American withdrawal from the negotiations. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (Doo-see’) has already gone on record saying he wants “more trade, not less.” He notes that nearly 150,000 jobs in Arizona are a direct result of trade and investment with Canada, which amounts to nearly one in every 20 jobs in his state. Because U.S. midterm elections aren’t far off, the Trump Administration has toned down withdrawal rhetoric, but that doesn’t mean it’s completely off the table. Farm-state governors have pleaded with the administration to stop making those threats, as has Kansas Senator Pat Roberts. With Mexico looking to South American buyers for more commodities, Roberts says his, and other states could get hit hard by any additional uncertainty in the next few months.

Trump to Meet with Cabinet, Senators of Biofuels

President Trump has scheduled a meeting with Cabinet officials and key Senators to talk over potential changes to the nation’s biofuels policy. The Renewable Fuels Standard is coming under increasing attack after a bankrupt Pennsylvania refinery blamed its troubles on the regulation. The meeting comes as two of the more powerful lobbying groups, the oil and corn/ethanol industries, continue to clash over the future of the RFS. A Reuters report says Trump’s engagement on the issue may reflect the value of protecting jobs in a key electoral state. The meeting is scheduled for next Tuesday. It will include several officials, such as oil-patch senator Ted Cruz of Texas, as well as corn-state senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst of Iowa. One source told Reuters that the meeting will focus on keeping Philadelphia Energy Solutions in business. The company is asking a bankruptcy judge to eliminate nearly $350 million of its current RFS compliance cost, which is owed to the Environmental Protection Agency. Another source says the discussions will consider capping the cost of biofuel credits and allow ethanol blends to be sold year round.*

McKinney Leads Trade Mission to Central America

Ag Department Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney will lead a trade mission to Central America. The mission will be in Guatemala from February 26 to March 2nd. McKinney will be accompanied by a delegation of agribusiness and state government leaders who are looking to increase agricultural exports to Central America’s Northern Triangle of Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. “The Northern Triangle offers significant market opportunities for exporters of U.S farm and food products,” McKinney says. “Thanks to population and economic growth in the region, demand for imported goods, particularly high-value, consumer-oriented food products, is rising.” More than 95 percent of U.S. agricultural exports enjoy duty-free access to the region under the CAFTA-DR agreement.” Since implementing the agreement in the Northern Triangle in 2006, ag exports have doubled, totaling $2.2 billion in 2017. While the mission is based in Guatemala, mission participants will also have the chance to connect with importers from El Salvador and Honduras, who are scheduled to travel to Guatemala. The USDA Foreign Ag Service will set up around 450 one-on-one business meetings between U.S. delegates and representatives from local companies who are interested in purchasing U.S. goods.

McKinney Predicts Trade Deal With Japan

The top USDA trade official, Ted McKinney, says he anticipates a trade deal with Japan will likely take place if the United States doesn’t re-enter into the Trans-Pacific Partnership. McKinney says he doesn’t know what the scope of the agreement will be but calls it “not a matter of if, but when.” He spoke about the topic during the Agricultural Outlook Forum. President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the TPP during his first week in office. Since then, the remaining 11 countries have agreed to a revamped deal, knowns as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. The 11 countries intend to sign the new deal early next month. McKinney says the timing of the U.S. potentially landing a trade pact with Japan or with other TPP countries is critical for American agriculture, which is competing for Asian market share. He says the administration’s effort to strike bilateral trade deals will depend, in part, on how the U.S., Canada, and Mexico wrap up the NAFTA negotiations. “I hope we don’t have to wait until NAFTA is done before we get going on other deals,” McKinney says. He does worry about the issue of bandwidth, as the U.S. trade officials are all focused on the NAFTA negotiations.

Perdue Advocates for Crop Insurance Program

Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue walked a tightrope while talking with reporters about President Trump’s budget proposals that agriculture wasn’t enamored with. One of the proposals included cuts to crop insurance. Agri-Pulse says Perdue is making strong statements in support of the program as it currently is. One of the largest cuts in the Trump Budget Proposal is to crop insurance. The largest cut would save $22 billion over 10 years by slashing premium subsidies. Perdue told reports at the Agricultural Outlook Conference that crop insurance is a very “viable part of the safety net” and that Americans “get a good deal on subsidies for the program.” Perdue didn’t say directly that he tried to talk the White House out of budget cuts. However, he seemed to when he told the reporters, “While it would be inappropriate to disclose private conversations,” Perdue says, “we were advocates for the American farmer.” 

MONTANA FSA: ADMINISTRATION APPOINTS NEW STATE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

The Trump Administration recently appointed Michael Foster as the new State Executive Director (SED) for the USDA Montana Farm Service Agency (FSA). Foster began his new position on Feb. 20, 2018.Foster was born and raised in Townsend, Montana, and currently resides in Bozeman. From 1991 to 1994, he represented the 32nd District in the Montana House of Representatives. He then served as a state senator representing Montana’s 20th District from 1995 to 1998, where he was majority whip. Foster most recently served as regional director of advocacy for St. Vincent Healthcare.The Farm Service Agency serves farmers, ranchers and agricultural partners through the delivery of effective, efficient agricultural programs. The agency offers farmers a strong safety net through the administration of farm commodity and disaster programs. FSA continues to conserve natural resources and also provides credit to agricultural producers who are unable to receive private, commercial credit, including special emphasis on beginning, underserved and women farmers and ranchers.Under the direction of Secretary Sonny Perdue, the USDA will always be facts-based and data-driven, with a decision-making mindset that is customer-focused. Secretary Perdue leads the USDA with four guiding principles: to maximize the ability of American agriculture to create jobs, sell food and fiber, and feed and clothe the world; to prioritize customer service for the taxpayers; to ensure that our food supply is safe and secure; and to maintain good stewardship of the natural resources that provide us with our miraculous bounty. And understanding that we live in a global economy where trade is of top importance, Secretary Perdue has pledged to be an unapologetic advocate for American agriculture.As SED, Foster will use his leadership experience to oversee FSA programs in a customer-focused manner to ensure a safe, affordable, abundant and nutritious food supply for consumers. 

USDA's Perdue Touts Regulation Actions by Administration as Key

The focus by the Trump administration on removing onerous regulations addresses one of farmers' top concerns, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said in opening remarks at USDA's Outlook Forum near Washington, DC. The top three concerns that farmers related to Perdue as he has toured parts of the country were regulation, trade and a reliable and legal workforce.Perdue focused attention on regulation, noting the Trump administration was going after the "vermin of over-burdensome regulation." On trade, he acknowledged the uncertainty around the NAFTA 2.0 negotiations, but assured the crowd President Donald Trump will "strike the best deal for the American economy, and that includes agriculture." On the reliable and legal workforce issue, Perdue called for a revamp of the H2A program, calling it "cumbersome, convoluted" and said "frankly, it doesn't work for producers."

Washington Insider: Vacancies in Key USDA Positions

Well, the ag sector’s most important concerns these days include trade policy and preparation for the coming farm bill debate. However, Food Safety News is reporting that there is another concern in the background, “400 days into [the current] administration four top USDA jobs remain vacant, it says.These are significant positions, FSN says, and asserts that after the Secretary of Agriculture, they are likely among the most important jobs at USDA. They include prominently the Under Secretary for Natural Resources and Environment, the official that runs the U.S. Forest Service with 40,000 employees and responsibility for the administration of 154 national forests and 20 national grasslands that include 193 million acres of land.The second key vacancy is the Under Secretary for Research, Education, and Economics— the Department’s chief scientist with oversight for a $700 million budget for research facilities and support for more than 100 land-grant universities.The list also includes the Under Secretary for Food, Nutrition, and Consumer Services, a job that oversees distribution food assistance topping $100 billion to 78.4 million people and oversees nutrition and dietary programs. Food programs account for 71 percent of USDA’s budget, FSN points out.The fourth vacancy in the FSN spotlight, Under Secretary for Food Safety, the federal government’s top food safety official who is responsible many things ranging from world food standards to oversight of USDA’s $1 billion Food Safety and Inspection Service and leader for the 8,100 inspectors at more than 6,400 processing and slaughter establishments for meat, poultry and egg production in the U.S.In fact, FSN reports, top jobs are going vacant across the federal government “due to a combination of factors.” Senate Democrats have been slow in letting the president’s appointments come to floor votes, the group says, and the administration is not sending up as many nominees as it could.FSN cites the Partnership for Public Service for the comment that there are about 1,200 presidential appointments that require Senate confirmation. In collaboration with the Washington Post, the Partnership is tracking 636 “key positions requiring Senate confirmation” and posting the results online. So far, only 267 appointees are in place.Another 142 formal nominations are waiting for Senate action and two additional nominations are awaiting confirmation including those four top USDA jobs. The White House has yet to nominate 225 of the “key” positions identified by the Partnership.Four of the 13 USDA positions that require the Senate’s consent have won confirmation, including the Secretary, Deputy Secretary Stephen Censky; Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs Gregory Ibach; and Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Ted McKinney.The President has nominated four others to serve at USDA that are awaiting confirmation. These include General Counsel Stephen Alexander Vaden; Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights Naomi D. Earp; Assistant Secretary for Congressional Relations Kenneth Steven Barbic; and Under Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services William Northey.The President nominated a candidate for one of the four “top” vacant jobs last July--retired Air Force Col. Samuel Clovis Jr. to be Under Secretary for Research, Education, and Economics. But, that nomination attracted considerable criticism and was withdrawn. Critics focused on Clovis’ lack of credentials to be USDA’s “chief scientist.”In addition, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has held up a vote on Northey over renewable fuels issues since last year.The President named both Northey and Vaden in 2017 but Earp and Barbic were only recently appointed. Earp is a former Chair and Vice Chair of the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission under President George W. Bush. Barbic was senior director of federal government affairs for Western Growers, a produce group.The fact that other federal departments are in the same boat does not make it any easier for Secretary Perdue at USDA, FSN says and notes that the Senate and House Agricultural Committees are moving aggressively on the 2018 Farm Bill without much in the way of restraints under the new two-year budget agreement.However, until Secretary gets more Under Secretaries confirmed, Secretary Perdue is going to have to continue relying on USDA civil servants, FSN thinks. It calls the President’s fiscal year 2019 budget, which begins Oct. 1, “protective toward food safety programs at USDA and the Food and Drug Administration.”However, the group notes that USDA is into its fifth year without an Under Secretary for Food Safety and calls that “one of the longest running for a major office.” Civil servants are holding down temporary appointments to run both the office of the Under Secretary and to administer USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service. FSN points to rumors that such an appointment is near, but says that “those rumors are almost as old as the vacancy.”Well, the vacancies FSN has identified are important, normally high-profile jobs, and in most administrations are quite active in farm-bill debates, especially since whatever programs the Congress authorizes, USDA will be responsible for managing them. It will be important to the sector that the administration nominate qualified, effective people to work with the Congress in this important role. This is a debate producers should watch closely as it proceeds, Washington Insider believes.

USDA released various commodity outlooks on Friday morning as part of the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum

The forecasts give the first look at USDA's projections for crops and livestock in the 2018-19 marketing year. WHEAT Wheat production will increase by 98 million bushels, or 6% higher than 2017-18. USDA sees a 47.4-bushel-per-acre yield to go with 46.5 million acres seeded, up about 500,000 acres from the old crop. USDA bumped up overall wheat acres even though the 2018 winter wheat crop was 32.6 million acres, the lowest in 109 years. Overall production is pegged at 1.839 billion bushels, even though USDA cites the potential of increased abandonment in the Southern Plains because of drought conditions hitting the winter wheat crop. With 1.009 billion bushels of carry-in from the 2017-18 crop, USDA sees 135 million bushels of imports and total supplies at 2.983 billion bushels for 2018-19, down 93 million bushels from the 2017-18 supplies. Total domestic use is pegged at 1.127 billion bushels while exports for 2018-19 are projected at 925 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from last year. Wheat is expected to face strong international competition for exports, as the European Union will have a larger crop and Argentina will expand wheat acres. Both Australia and Canada also are expected to have larger export supplies as well as they rebound from lower 2017-18 yields. Ending stocks for 2018-19 are expected to decline roughly 8%, or 78 million bushels  

Mexico Buying More Brazilian Corn as NAFTA Negotiations Continue

Mexico purchased ten times more corn from Brazil last year than it had previously. Reuters says that’s due to the uncertainty regarding the potential outcome of the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations. Mexican government data and top grain merchants all say they fear supply distruption from the U.S. if the White House ever followed through on its threat to withdraw from the pact. Mexico is already on track to buy more corn from Brazil in 2018. That’s a move that hurts an already struggling U.S. ag sector faced with low commodity prices and rising South American competition. U.S. farmers, food processors, and grain traders have spent months trying to make sure relationships don’t fall part if the NAFTA negotiations suddenly fall apart. They’re trying to protect over $19 billion in sales to Mexican buyers of corn, soybeans, poultry, and dairy. Despite that, Mexican corn imports from Brazil are climbing, totaling over one-half million metric tons in 2017. That’s a more than 900 percent jump over the previous year. The purchases all came in the last four months of 2017.

NCGA Responds to Cruz Speech on RFS

Texas Senator Ted Cruz spoke this week before workers at the bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions Refinery. He says the bankruptcy was caused by the law requiring refiners to purchase Renewable Identification Numbers, or RINs, mandated by the Renewable Fuels Standard. A Delaware Dot Com Article calls the RINs a “receipt that shows gasoline sold at a filling station contains an ethanol mix.” However, Kevin Skunes (Skoo’-nehs), National Corn Growers Association President, says Cruz is way off base. He says most of the nation’s oil refiners are showing double-digit profit increases, but the problems of Philadelphia Energy Solutions are self-inflicted. “That company’s investors put their interests ahead of their workers’ interests,” he says, “and it’s disingenuous for Cruz to say he’s looking out for refinery workers when he’s really looking out for the Wall Street investors who made bad business decisions yet still ensured they got their payouts first, putting refinery jobs at risk.” He adds that the Environmental Protection Agency, university experts, and financial analysts all confirm that refinery owners aren’t facing a RIN price impact because they recover any costs through the price they get for their refined products. “Cruz is trying to upend the RFS to bail out refiners who opted not to invest in blending infrastructure,” Skunes says, “so they could blend renewable fuels and get free biofuels credits.”

Section 199A Fix Is Coming

A DTN report says Congress may be close to replacing the Section 199A language in the new tax law that curbs the advantages of farmers who sell their products to cooperatives rather than private companies. Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley says a possible fix would give farmer cooperatives the same tax benefits they had under the old Section 199A, known as the Domestic Production Activities Deduction. That tax break amounted to about nine percent of a cooperative’s income and up to half the amount of wages paid to cooperative workers. Cooperatives then passed on the benefits of the deduction to their farmer-members. Grassley says, “I think there is enough agreement in Congress to do what we originally intended to do, which is maintaining the status-quo for co-ops. With enough agreement, we’re going to go ahead and get it done, even if co-ops aren’t completely satisfied with what we’re doing.” The fix coming out of Congress will essentially reinstate the law that was in effect prior to the 2017 tax bill and reestablish the Domestic Activities Deduction to the way it was over the last dozen years. Grassley says the Section 199A change will likely be included in the omnibus spending appropriations bill that has a March 23 deadline. Now that lawmakers and President Trump have agreed on a budget, Grassley feels the appropriations bill won’t be as big of a political battle to get passed.

Perdue Promotes “Harvest Box”

Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue wants people who don’t like the idea of “America’s Harvest Box” to know that they are very serious about the idea. He says House Ag Committee Chair Mike Conaway is open to considering a small-scale pilot program in the 2018 Farm Bill. The Secretary has faced a lot of criticism since the proposal came out last week as part of President Trump’s fiscal 2019 budget. However, Perdue and his team are defending the idea. A Pro Ag report says they might be finding some open minds on Capitol Hill as well. “We think it’s our responsibility to create new, innovative ideas of delivering food to the people who need it,” Perdue says, “and this is one area.” During a recent tour through California, he did say there are some logistical concerns to the idea but called it “a real idea, not a sham.” Conaway has a great deal of the House Farm Bill already written, but he’s not ruling out the idea of a pilot project in the program. A committee aide says, while Conaway is open to the idea, no decisions have been made yet. Perdue says that’s encouraging because new ideas often need to be introduced on a small scale to see if they’ll work as intended.

Changes Made to H-2C Immigration Bill

A bill proposed by Virginia Republican Representative Bob Goodlatte would scrap the current H-2A program which is party controlled by the U.S. Labor Department. It would institute an H-2C program that would be overseen by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Goodlatte has made several amendments to the legislation after listening to concerns from ag groups. A Milk Business Dot Com article says the changes would let farmers have more time to comply with E-Verify. The bill would alleviate concerns over the maximum visa length, extending the term from 18 to 24 months. That change would allow more people to be visa recipients in the program after the first year. It’s not known for sure if the bill will get to the House floor for a vote. Many Republicans, as well as Secretary Perdue, support the bill. Last month, Perdue expressed concern that if Goodlatte’s bill wasn’t part of a broader package on immigration reform, he didn’t see another opportunity in the near future to address the serious problem of labor shortages in all sectors of agriculture. While the American Farm Bureau supports the bill, the California Farm Bureau says it wouldn’t work for California farms and ranches as it’s currently written, and plans to offer recommendations on a more practical program.

USDA Releases 2018 Planting Estimates

While some planters are already working in Texas, the Corn Belt seems a long way away from planting because of snow and ice. However, the USDA is already thinking about planting. During the Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its acreage estimates for 2018. The USDA says corn and soybean acres will be split, with 90 million acres going to corn and another 90 million to soybeans. The agency says wheat acres should rise to about 46.5 million. Cotton is also expected to jump one million acres over the 2017 estimate of 12.6 million acres. This year’s cotton acreage estimate is officially 13.3 million acres. Some analysts believe that soybeans could actually move past corn in the overall number of planted acres, with the potential for 91.5 million acres of soybeans in the ground. Soybean prices have rallied recently over South American weather concerns, but the export numbers haven’t been as favorable to soybeans in recent weeks. 

FDA has updated its 2013 risk profile on pathogens and filth in spices

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has updated its 2013 risk profile on pathogens and filth in spices to include new data from the agency’s recent analysis of more than 7,000 spice samples offered for retail sale.According to an FDA statement, the new survey data in the 2017 Risk Profile: Pathogens and Filth in Spices show that the prevalence of Salmonella in nine out of 11 types of packaged dried spices in the United States was significantly lower than that for shipments of spice at import.The agency said the findings are consistent with public comments from the domestic food industry that responsible manufacturers apply a pathogen reduction treatment to many spices after entering the United States, prior to retail sale. Salmonella prevalence was significantly lower in retail samples than estimated prevalence for shipments of imported spice offered for U.S. entry, with the exception of dehydrated garlic and basil (due to low statistical significance).The 11 spices studied were basil leaf, black pepper, ground coriander seed, cumin seed, curry powder, dehydrated garlic, oregano leaf, paprika, hot red pepper, sesame seed and white pepper. 

U.S. agricultural exports overall will be $139.5 billion for the federal fiscal year 2018

U.S. agricultural exports overall will be $139.5 billion for the federal fiscal year 2018, down $500 million from the forecast in November due to a 6 percent decline in oilseed and product exports that is only partially offset by increases in livestock, cotton and grain exports, USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service agencies projected.The forecast for livestock, poultry and dairy exports in aggregate was raised $800 million to $30.5 billion, led by higher forecasts for beef and pork products.Meanwhile, U.S. agricultural imports for fiscal 2018 were forecast at $118.5 billion, up $1.5 billion from the November forecast. Most major product groups are forecast higher. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is down $2.0 billion to $21.0 billion.The global economy is looking good in both developed and developing countries, the report said. ERS and FAS calculate world GDP growth of 2.0 percent in 2017, and expect 2.2 percent growth in 2018 — “the fastest growth in global income since the post-financial-crisis rebound in 2010.” Also, after two years at less than 2 percent, global trade volume, which grew 6.1 percent in 2017, is expected to increase 5.0 percent in 2018.Weaker dollarThe U.S. dollar weakened against the currencies of many key trading partners in 2017 and is expected to generally trend weaker into 2018, the report said. The trend is mostly the result of improved economic health in other countries, which has allowed their currencies to regain some of the value lost since 2014.The Eurozone experienced its strongest economic growth in a decade in 2017, and consumer and business sentiment suggests this strength will carry over into 2018. China’s 2017 growth accelerated over the previous year for the first time since 2010, and India’s per capita GDP growth is expected to outpace China’s in 2018.Beef, porkAmong commodity exports, beef exports are forecast to increase by $400 million, to $6.7 billion, on both higher volumes and stronger prices. Pork is forecast up $300 million, to $5.5 billion, on strong global demand in key markets and slightly higher prices. Variety meats are forecast $100 million higher at $1.9 billion on robust demand and stronger prices. Forecasts for total poultry were unchanged. 

Transport phase is the most publicly visible activity in the beef-production cycle

While most Americans will never visit a cattle operation, they probably see cattle trucks and trailers on the highway, and what they see can influence their perception of the entire cattle industry. The transport phase is the most publicly visible activity in the beef-production cycle, says Chase DeCoite, associate director of Beef Quality Assurance (BQA) programs for the National. Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA). And beyond public perceptions, transport between pastures or between operations presents challenges and opportunities in protecting beef quality and animal welfare.After years of development, the national BQA program introduced its Beef Quality Assurance Transportation (BQAT) program in November 2017. Since then, DeCoite says, over 500 cattle transporters have registered for training and over 300 have become certified.The program includes training for farmers and ranchers as well as for professional truckers. Beef packers have supported the program and are encouraging truckers who deliver cattle to their plants to become BQAT certified.This month, the national BQA team are engaged in training with state BQA coordinators, who will help organize training and certification efforts in their states. Over time, DeCoite says, transportation and the BQAT program will become integrated into BQA messaging targeted to producers and to consumers, highlighting the program’s efforts to protect beef quality and animal welfare across the production chain, from pasture to plate.Veterinarians will play key roles in implementing the transport program, building overall awareness among their clients, developing protocols and helping them recognize whether cattle are fit for transport. The BQA team plans to offer BQAT training at the 2018 American Association of Bovine Practitioners (AABP) Annual Conference in September.The program includes these critical topics:Cattle handling guidelines & diagrams Checklists for loading/unloading 
Checklists for hot/cold weather factors
Checklists for fit/injured/weak cattle 
Checklist for traveling
Loading suggestions and worksheets
Bio-security & Emergency Action Plans
For more information and a link to register for BQAT certification, visit the transportation section on the BQA website. 

Rural Bankers Less Concerned Over Farmland Values

Rural bankers have grown less negative on farmland values, but remain bearish overall, according to the latest reading on banker attitudes conducted by Dr. Ernie Goss, Creighton University and the Rural Mainstreet Index survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwestern states from Colorado to Illinois.The monthly farmland index rose to 46.3 from 42.2 for January, the report found, the highest reading since July 2014, but it is the 51st straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral 50.0. The monthly survey found banker attitudes toward their general economy shifted into positive territory. The overall index soared to 54.8 from 46.8 in January, the highest reading for the overall index since May 2014. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral.

South Korea Latest To Challenge US Antidumping, CVD Practices At WTO

Consultations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) with the U.S. concerning the Department of Commerce's use of "facts available" in antidumping and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations were requested by South Korea. The request was circulated to WTO members on February 20, according to a Geneva trade official.The challenge revolves around WTO's Anti-Dumping Agreement. That agreement says if a firm targeted in an antidumping investigation refuses access to, or otherwise does not provide, necessary information within a reasonable period, or significantly impedes the investigation, a dumping determination may be made on the basis of the "facts available."According to the request, besides challenging provisions of U.S. laws and regulations allowing Commerce to use facts available in antidumping and CVD investigations, it also takes issue with the department's practice of using adverse facts with regard to producers or exporters deemed to have failed to cooperate in the investigation. Specifically, Korea cites six antidumping and CVD determinations on certain products from Korea in which Commerce relied on adverse facts available when making its determination.

NGFA seeks clarification on trucking regulatory exemptions for agriculture

It is imperative that U.S. freight laws and regulations accomplish their goals without disadvantaging U.S. agriculture, given the highly competitive global marketplace that exists for agricultural products," the statement said. "Having access to a highly efficient freight transportation system and a pool of qualified drivers is critical for U.S. agriculture's competitiveness."

MGGA Pleased with Renewed Interest in TPP

Great Falls – Montana wheat producers rely heavily on foreign markets as 75-80% of our wheat is exported every year. Moreover, almost 30% of Montana grown wheat is exported to countries that have recently reached agreement on a Trans-Pacific Partnership deal that excludes the United States. Our long-standing Japanese trading partners, who purchase about 20% of Montana’s wheat production each year, have made it clear that they have no interest in pursuing a bilateral agreement with us but they would welcome us back into TPP with open arms. That’s why we were pleased with President Trump’s recent remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he would reconsider joining TPP. And we are especially grateful for last week’s letter from 25 senators, led by Montana Senator Steve Daines, urging the administration to work aggressively to secure reforms that would allow the U.S. to rejoin TPP. MGGA President Michelle Erickson-Jones said, “These developments have given me a glimmer of hope that we can stabilize our key export markets and reestablish some certainty for our growers that our market share will not be eroded by our competitors.” Montana wheat exports to Japan in particular will be at serious risk under TPP 11, scheduled for signature on March 6, setting up a catastrophic loss of sales in the next couple of years that will depress farm gate prices even more. Of the 6 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat Japan imports each year, roughly 3.0 MMT is purchased from the U.S., including about 1.2 MMT of high quality hard red spring and hard red winter wheat from Montana farmers. Japanese millers project cuts to average total imports of U.S. wheat to as little as 1.4 MMT per year as lower effective tariffs force them to buy more Canadian and Australian wheat instead. Erickson-Jones added, “Hopefully this renewed interest will allow us to emerge from a long winter of trade uncertainty and into a spring that is full of new export opportunities for our growers.” 

Bunge to Exit Sugar Trading

(Dow Jones) -- As agriculture company Bunge takes steps to potentially separate its sugar milling business, it's shutting down its division that trades sugar around the world, executives say. "It's a hypercompetitive business," says CEO Soren Schroder on 4Q earnings call, saying that the division struggled over the past year to generate profit margins big enough to cover its costs of operating. Schroder says Bunge's Brazilian sugar milling unit can continue to manage its own price risk without the trading business, as Bunge continues to work toward a possible sale or spinoff. Bunge's sugar and bioenergy unit reported a $4M loss for the quarter, improved from a $53M loss the prior year.

Mergers May Not Solve Grain Company Woes

(Dow Jones) -- Deal speculation has gripped the agricultural industry, with Archer Daniels Midland and Glencore both reported over the past year to have approached competitor Bunge about a deal. Bunge CEO Soren Schroder on the company's 4Q earnings call declines to address those reports, but does tell analysts that consolidation on its own won't be the answer to years-long struggles among agricultural commodity traders. Following five successive bumper crops in North America and another potential record South American harvest, "it's more how you operate that determines your profitability," versus sheer scale, Schroder says. "The entire industry and certainly ourselves are trying to adjust to a new environment."

Tyson Preps New Plant-Based Products

(Dow Jones) -- After investing in several alternatives to conventional meat, top US protein processor Tyson Foods is preparing to launch a new brand initially focusing on all-veggie products. Tyson's prepared foods president, Sally Grimes, says the new "Green Street" brand will be aimed at "grocerants" -- those eating establishments like delis housed inside grocery stores -- that will debut with a lineup of bowls centered on plant-based proteins. Grimes, speaking at an investor event, says it's a way for Tyson to use some capabilities from recent deals, like its purchase of sandwich maker AdvancePierre, to build on its existing business supplying rotisserie chicken and deli meats to delis.

Sanderson Holders Again Reject Antibiotics Proposal

(Dow Jones) -- Sanderson Farms' shareholders rejected again--albeit by a narrower margin--a shareholder proposal to phase out the use of antibiotics in chickens. The vote was 8.2M votes in favor and 10.1M against vs. 5.71M to 12.4M a year ago. Rival poultry processors like Tyson Foods, Pilgrim's Pride and Perdue Farms have increasingly moved to eliminate antibiotics from chicken flocks. Sanderson said in an annual proxy filing that it has a "detailed contingency plan" to eliminate those drugs if competitive pressures require and estimates that it would wean its entire chicken operation from antibiotics within 12 months. Shares close down 1.5% at $131.44, up 38% over the past 12 months.

A2 Milk, Fonterra Deal A Win With Investors

(Dow Jones) -- A2 Milk Company's newly-minted strategic partnership with the world's largest dairy exporter Fonterra Co-Operative Limited has seen A2's share price, which had already roughly quadrupled last year, rise 16% in early trade on Wednesday to an all-time high of NZ$10.80. A2 has experienced very strong growth in market share, and one of the few issues analysts have seen with the stock is whether it could continue to grow at such a strong level without boosting its supply of milk. Under the deal, Fonterra will manufacture A1 protein-free products for certain priority markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East exclusively for the A2 Milk Company, as well as giving Fonterra an exclusive licence for the production, distribution, sale and marketing of a2 Milk-branded fresh milk in New Zealand.

Canada Oil Industry Hamstrung by Regulations

(Dow Jones) -- The Trump administration has rolled back many burdensome US oil industry regulations, but in Canada regulations are still causing migraines. And that's helping fuel real-world problems for Canada whose benchmark WCS oil is in a major slump. "Virtually every plan to add new takeaway capacity out of Alberta - Canada's #1 energy-producing province - continues to face regulatory hurdles, and it remains to be seen which of the pipeline projects will be completed, and when," says RBN Energy. It adds that "pipeline constraints out of Western Canada [are] worsening by the month and having profound negative effects on the price of Western Canadian Select (WCS)."

Proposed Rules Would Allow Meatpackers to Slaughter Hogs Faster

(Dow Jones) -- Proposed rules allowing meatpackers to slaughter hogs faster and play a bigger role in policing food safety are intended to free up government inspectors while making plants more efficient. But the rules, which could take effect this year, have drawn criticism.Consumer advocates question whether companies can guarantee the cleanliness of their pork while workers take on some tasks previously reserved for U.S. Department of Agriculture inspectors. Meanwhile, worker-rights groups say speeding up slaughter lines would strain workers whose jobs are already difficult and dangerous.Meat companies and the USDA say the proposals would make better use of inspectors and plant capacity without compromising food safety. Some meatpackers also say more efficient plants could mean lower pork prices for consumers. Similar inspection changes were made in the poultry industry in 2014, and officials say they could come next to the beef-inspection process

ADM, Syngenta Settle in Biotech Corn Case

(Dow Jones) -- Swiss seed maker Syngenta has taken another step toward resolving the legal issues over its Agrisure Viptera biotech corn, settling a lawsuit filed by grain giant Archer Daniels Midland. ADM, along with hundreds of farmers and other grain companies such as Cargill, sued Syngenta in 2014 over the corn, which Syngenta sold to U.S. farmers before Chinese authorities approved it to be imported there. After China rejected cargoes containing the corn, ADM and other plaintiffs sought to hold Syngenta accountable for losses. Syngenta denied it acted improperly. An ADM spokeswoman confirmed the settlement, earlier reported by Reuters, but did not disclose the terms. A Syngenta spokesman didn't respond to a request for comment.**

Senators Urge Trump to Rejoin TPP

A group of Republican Senators is urging President Donald Trump to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. The 25 lawmakers, including many from western and farm states, encouraged Trump to "work aggressively to secure reforms that would allow the United States to join the agreement" according to Politico. In a statement, the group says: “An improved TPP would therefore bolster and sustain the economic growth America has experienced over the past year,” growth they say was facilitated by regulatory reductions and tax cuts enacted by the Trump Administration. The effort is led by Senator Steve Daines of Montana, who says the group “is committed” to expediting the trade nominees needed to rejoin TPP on the Senate floor. Trump sparked a glimmer of hope of the U.S. rejoining the trade pact when he said he would consider rejoining the deal if it was changed to be made beneficial to the United States.

Judge Dismisses Arkansas Dicamba Lawsuit

A judge in Arkansas has dismissed a lawsuit by Monsanto seeking to block the state’s ban of dicamba herbicides from April 16th through October 31st. Arkansas enacted the ban after receiving nearly 1,000 complaints last year about the weed killer drifting onto fields and damaging crops not resistant to the herbicide. In dismissing the case, the judge cited a state Supreme Court ruling last month that said the state Legislature can’t waive Arkansas’ immunity from lawsuits, saying the state Supreme Court ruling prevented the lower court from deciding on the case. Monsanto says the state can’t claim immunity since the company wasn’t seeking monetary damages. Attorneys for the Arkansas Plant Board argued the company hadn’t proven the state acted illegally or unconstitutionally, so the state was immune from the lawsuit. Arkansas Assistant Attorney General Gary Sullivan said during the hearing: “They just don’t like the decision the Plant Board made,” according to the Washington Post. Monsanto did not say whether it would appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court.

USDA Seeking Dismissal of OTA Lawsuit

The Department of Agriculture wants a federal district court to dismiss a lawsuit challenging the department’s delay of the Organic Livestock and Poultry Practices final rule. USDA claims it's challenger, the Organic Trade Association, "lacks standing because it pleads no facts" in showing the delay has resulted in the suffering of its members because of the USDA action, according to the Hagstrom Report. In response to the request, the Organic Trade Association says it believes USDA seeks the dismissal "to avoid explaining to America's organic producers and consumers why it is blocking necessary rule clarifications and the strengthening of organic production practices." The Organic Trade Association calls the delays of the final rule by USDA "unlawful," and says the group "won't accept unending delay and thin explanations,” adding “we expect a federal judge won’t either.”

Fertilizer Institute Issues Annual Industry Report

The Fertilizer Institute 2017 State of the Fertilizer Industry report shows a continued investment in nutrient management and stewardship, among other things. Organizers say the annual report, which is part of the organizations stewardship and sustainability programs, quantifies the industry’s performance record on environmental, economic and social indicators. The report also documents the fertilizer industry's contribution to meeting the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals of zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, affordable and clean energy, industry innovation and infrastructure, along with climate action. The report shows the fertilizer industry invested nearly $1 million in 4R Nutrient Stewardship research to strengthen best management practices and seek solutions that reduce nutrient loss to the environment. The report also shows the industry captured and reused 25 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, a savings equivalent to taking nearly two million cars off the road for an entire year, along with investing $4.3 billion to advance innovation, improve infrastructure, and enhance sustainable production of fertilizer. Finally, the report states the fertilizer industry is two times as safe as peer industries

USDA Temporarily Expands Puerto Rico Nutrition Assistance

As Puerto Rico continues to recover from the 2017 hurricane season, the Department of Agriculture will extend temporary nutrition assistance to the island. A grant from USDA is providing eligibility for increased nutrition assistance through the Puerto Rico Nutrition Assistance Program beginning March first. The grant comes from the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief Requirements Act, and delivers an additional $1.27 billion. The funds allow Puerto Rico to expand assistance to additional households and increase the benefit amount for current and new participants on a temporary basis. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says the grant “fulfills the Administration’s pledge to support the recovery” of Puerto Rico. The nutrition assistance program in Puerto Rico is different from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program operated in the United States and operated as a block grant. Through the grant, Puerto Rico has the flexibility to create a plan to provide temporary benefits for victims of the hurricanes in a way that best suits the needs on the island.

Plant-based Protein Eaters: It’s About Taste

New results from a research firm shows U.S. adults who eat plant-based proteins do so for taste above all other factors. Research firm Mintel reports 52 percent of adults surveyed say taste is the top reason for the choice, outranking diet concerns at ten percent, animal protection at 11 percent, the environment at 13 percent and even health at 39 percent. Meat industry publication Meatingplace reports the research was based on responses from more than 1,800 U.S. internet users aged 18 or over that eat plant-based proteins. The study also indicated that 46 percent of Americans agree that plant-based proteins are better for you than animal-based options. However, Mintel senior analyst Billy Roberts notes that overall consumption of plant-based proteins remains low. The Mintel survey showed that 67 percent of Americans agree that meat is essential to a balanced diet and 51 percent believe a meal is not complete without meat.

Packer margins under $20 per head last week

A $3-plus rally in cash fed cattle prices pulled packer margins under $20 per head last week. Despite the increase in cash prices, cattle feeding margins slipped $6 per head, but remain at $206. Declines in cattle feeding profits were the result of higher costs, mostly due to a $57 per head increase in the cost of feeder cattle calculated against last week’s marketings, according to the Sterling Beef Profit Tracker.The 5-area average Choice steer price last week was $129.88, up $3.68 per cwt. The price of feeder cattle calculated against the fed cattle sales were $153.30 per cwt., or $6.21 per cwt. higher. The cost of finishing a steer last week was calculated at $1,601, which is $169 higher than the $1,432 a year ago. The beef cutout remained relatively steady at $207.79 per cwt. The Beef and Pork Profit Trackers are calculated by Sterling Marketing Inc., Vale, Ore.A month ago cattle feeders were earning $196 per head, while a year ago profits were calculated at $233 per head. Feeder cattle represent 74% of the cost of finishing a steer, compared to 73% last year.Farrow-to-finish pork producers saw their margins decline $9 per head to $25. Lean carcass prices traded at $69.48, a decline of $4.32 per cwt. from the previous week. A year ago pork producers earned an average of $39 per head. Pork packer margins improved from breakeven to an $8 profit per head.Cash prices for fed cattle are $10 per cwt. higher than the same week a year ago. Lean hog prices are about $2 per cwt. lower than last year.Sterling Marketing president John Nalivka projects cash profit margins for cow-calf producers in 2018 will average $122 per cow. That would be $36 per head less than the estimated average profit of $158 for 2017. Estimated average cow-calf margins were $438 per cow in 2015.For feedyards, Nalivka projects an average profit of $86 per head in 2018, which would be $150 less than the average of $236 per head in 2017. Nalivka expects packer margins to average about $90 per head in 2018, down from $123 in 2017.For farrow-to-finish pork producers, Nalivka projects 2018 profit margins will average $18.25 per head, compared to $20.87 in 2017. Pork packers are projected to earn $19 per head in 2018, down slightly from $25 profit per head in 2017.

NILE is offering an opportunity to win scholarships

Are you strapped for cash and stressed about how to cover your next college tuition payment? Maybe your in need of something to do on "snow day" from school? It's scholarship season and the NILE is offering an opportunity to win scholarships!
Who: High school seniors and current college students
What: FREE College Money $$$
Where: Applications online www.thenile.org
When: Due March 1st at 5 p.m. (postmarked March 1st will not be accepted)
Why: NILE preserves and embraces the western way of life through the promotion of livestock, and agriculture education. We believe in the future of agriculture by supporting youth involved in the industry.
How: Must be a 4-H or FFA member and must have participated in NILE activities
Questions? Contact the NILE Office at (406) 256-2495 or by emailing shelby@thenile.org.

Gorsuch Vote Could Be Deciding In Financial Viability Of Unions Support Of Democratic Candidates And Causes

WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's union leaders are about to find out if they were right to fiercely oppose Neil Gorsuch's nomination to the Supreme Court as a pivotal, potentially devastating vote against organized labor.The newest justice holds the deciding vote in a case to be argued Feb. 26 that could affect the financial viability of unions that are major supporters of Democratic candidates and causes. The unions represent more than 5 million government workers in 24 states and the District of Columbia who could be affected by the outcome. The other eight justices split 4 to 4 when the issue was last at the court in 2016.The court is being asked to jettison a 41-year-old ruling that allows states to require government employees who don't want to be union members to pay for their share of activities the union undertakes on behalf of all workers, not just its members. These so-called fair share fees cover the costs of collective bargaining and grievance procedures to deal with workplace complaints.Employees who don't join the union do not have to pay for the unions' political activities.Conservative anti-union interests are backing an Illinois government employee who says that being forced to pay anything at all violates his First Amendment speech rights."I'm not against unions," said the employee, 65-year-old Mark Janus, who is represented by American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 31. "I don't oppose the right of workers to organize. But the right to say no to unions is just as important as the right to say yes." He said he opposes his union's fight for wage and benefit increases when the state is "in pretty terrible financial condition right now."William Messenger, the National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation lawyer who is representing Janus at the Supreme Court, said everything the union does, including its bargaining with the state, is political and employees should not be forced to pay for it.The issue might have been settled in Janus' favor two years ago. In January 2016, the court heard an identical complaint from California teachers and appeared to be ready to decide that states have no right to compel workers to pay money to unions.But less than a month later, Justice Antonin Scalia died and the court soon after announced its tie, in effect a win for the unions. The one-sentence opinion did not identify how each justice voted, but the court appeared split between its conservatives and liberals, the same breakdown seen in two other recent cases about public sector unions. 

Washington Insider: US Risks from Steel Tariffs

Amid uncertainty in ag markets regarding the outcome of the NAFTA talks, Bloomberg is pointing to another concern for U.S. exporters. It says that the U.S. sounds confident that proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum won’t break global trade rules, despite warnings from other countries that are threatening to retaliate. Now the Commerce Dept is saying that “it is up to the president to decide if that’s a risk he’s willing to take.”The Commerce Department on Friday laid out a range of options for President Trump to consider, including a tariff of at least 24% on steel imports from all countries. In announcing the long-awaited proposals, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross acknowledged other nations may respond in kind.“We believe, and our counsel believe, that this is a perfectly valid interpretation of national security,” Ross told reporters on a conference call. “As to whether there will be a challenge, it wouldn’t surprise us if there were. Anytime you do something that affects a number of countries, the likelihood is that they will bring a WTO action or take other measures.”China said the U.S. already has excessive protections on domestic iron and steel products and that it reserves the right to retaliate. “If the final decision impacts China’s interests, China will certainly take necessary measures to protect its own rights,” Wang Hejun, chief of the Trade Remedy and Investigation Bureau at China’s Ministry of Commerce, said in a statement on its website.An official of Japan’s Kobe Steel Ltd. warned it would be difficult for the industry not to be impacted by such tariffs.The question is whether the President is willing to court more trade conflict at a time when doubts are being raised about the longevity of the U.S. economic recovery. Assets such as stocks plunged this month as investors weighed whether the American economy may be overheating. The President has complained repeatedly about what he sees as the unfair trading practices of countries such as China. But he has also touted the American economy’s strong performance of late.Some analysts are already predicting a backlash, Bloomberg says. Any of the options presented to Trump on steel would have a more significant and broader impact than expected, BMO Capital Markets analyst David Gagliano said,American steel companies and steelworker unions have been pushing for Trump to follow through on his promise to protect the industry. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said he hoped the recommendations “are the beginning of efforts by this administration to finally get tough on China.”Sweeping tariffs may not solve the problem of excess capacity in China, the world’s biggest steel producer. The U.S. and European Union have complained for years that Chinese steel producers unfairly benefit from state subsidies, and dump their products on the world at below-market prices.But China only accounts for about 1% of U.S. steel imports, Bloomberg says. Its steel exports overall shrank to the lowest in almost five years in January as strong domestic growth consumed most production and environmental curbs trim capacity.“It’s a clumsy instrument for dealing with this problem, and it won’t change China’s behavior,” said Christine McDaniel, senior research fellow at Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Virginia. The U.S. imposed tariffs on steel early last decade, but wasn’t able to convince China to change its state-driven economic model, said McDaniel, who served as a senior trade economist in the White House Council of Economic Advisors.“This is a pretty expansive use of national security which will inspire two things: one, retaliation, and two, it’s kind of a passport for other countries to emulate,” said Gary Hufbauer, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.In addition to tariffs of their own, countries such as China could challenge U.S. action at the World Trade Organization, a process that could take years.The president last year ordered Commerce to probe whether imports of steel and aluminum imperil U.S. national security. In doing so, he invoked seldom-used Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose tariffs without congressional approval.Trump has until April 11 to decide on any action on steel and April 19 for aluminum. He’s facing pressure from lawmakers in his own party, some of whom gave him an earful this week on the potential fallout. The president also risks alienating industries that either rely on steel and aluminum as inputs, or are worried about retaliation. A group called Farmers for Free Trade warned on Friday that US agricultural products such as chickens and sorghum could be first in the line of fire.Canada is not only the top exporter of steel to the U.S. also is a large buyer, Adam Austen, the spokesman for Foreign Affairs Minister said. The Canadian government will continue stressing the importance of that trading relationship as it awaits the final outcome from Trump, said Austen.So, we will see. The risks Secretary Ross talked about seem real, but so do the policy interventions that undercut global competition. Increasingly, the trade debate is one producers should watch very closely as it proceeds, Washington Inside believes