WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA lowered new-crop ending stocks for both corn and soybeans in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand report released Friday.
New-crop corn ending stocks were pegged at 2.008 billion bushels, which was dropped 145 million bushels from last month's projection. That dropped the projected stocks-to-use ratio for the 2016-17 corn crop to 14.2%.
For the 2016-17 soybean crop, USDA dropped the ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 260 million bushels. That lowered soybean stocks-to-use for the new crop to 6.6%.
USDA's U.S. ending stocks estimates should be viewed as bullish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World estimates should be viewed as neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat, he said.
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CORN
USDA reduced the 2015-16 ending stocks by 95 million bushels to 1.708 billion bushels, lower than analysts expected in pre-report estimates. This was due to improved competitiveness of the U.S. corn crop on the world export market because corn production was lowered in Brazil and harvest is delayed in Argentina.
Production for the new crop planted this spring remained at 14.43 billion bushels with the average yield at 168 bushels per acre. USDA did raise the median season price by 15 cents per bushel to $3.50.
SOYBEANS
USDA lowered new-crop ending stocks for soybeans by 45 million bushels from the May report based on lower beginning stocks and increased exports.
Soybean production is still pegged at 3.8 billion bushels with yield projected at 46.7 bushels per acre.
For the new-crop farm price, the median season price was increased 40 cents to an average of $9.50 per bushel.
WHEAT
Hard Red Winter Wheat was pegged at a surprising 938 million bushels, up 9% from last month. That was 28 million bushels above any of the pre-report estimates. Total winter wheat production is forecast at 1.51 billion bushels, up 10% from the 2015 crop. The U.S. yield for all winter wheat is projected at 50.5 bushels per acre, which is 8 bushels above last year. If realized, that would be the highest yield on record for the U.S.
ANALYSIS
On the domestic side, USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016-17 from 2.153 billion to 2.008 billion bushels, which was less than expected. "Friday's report is bullish for corn," said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman.
USDA's estimate of U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2016-17 was reduced from 305 million to 260 million bushels, less than expected. "Friday's report is bullish for soybeans," Hultman said.
USDA's estimate of U.S. ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 was increased from 1.029 billion to 1.050 billion bushels, which was a little higher than expected. "Friday's U.S. report is neutral for wheat," Hultman said.
Meanwhile, on the global side, USDA's estimate of world ending corn stocks for 2016-17 was reduced from 207.04 million metric tons to 205.12 mmt, slightly less than expected.
USDA's world ending soybean stocks estimate for 2016-17 was reduced from 68.21 mmt to 66.31 mmt, as expected.
USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2016-17 was increased from 257.34 mmt to 257.84 mmt, but was less than expected.
"Friday's world estimates from USDA are neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat," Hultman said.