In fact, agriculture will be involved either way, Bloomberg says, since the vote could have a major impact on trade policies of the U.S. and Britain. Still, in Washington, agricultural policy makers have been quiet on the issue, likely because the trade itself is modest, but could be significant, Bloomberg says.
The article comments on the general lack of ag involvement. For example, influential agriculture policy groups such as the National Farmer's Union and the Farm Bureau haven't weighed in on the issue publicly, Bloomberg says and notes that Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts, R-Kan., declined to comment on how a vote to “leave” would affect ag trade with Britain.
Also, the administration isn't wringing its hands either about a potential UK pullout, Bloomberg says.
Secretary Vilsack also has downplayed the vote’s importance, arguing that, “I think there are far more comprehensive issues relating to the EU and the UK's role in the EU and obviously the people are going to make a decision that they think is in their best interest,” he told the press last week.
He went on to note that he is more concerned with completing the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations that have been moving slowly for years and listed several trade issues he sees as are more important than today’s vote.
President Obama was less sanguine. Beyond agricultural trade, leaving the EU would likely require Britain to strike new trade deals with the U.S., but Britons might have to wait, he said.
“Maybe some point down the line, there might be a UK-U.S. trade agreement, but it's not going to happen anytime soon because our focus in negotiating is with the big bloc, the European Union, to get a trade agreement done, and UK [could be] going to the back of the queue,” Obama said during an earlier press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Indeed, agricultural trade between the U.S. and UK is small but it makes up a significant percentage of sales to the EU.
Still, “Agriculture trade with Britain shouldn't be seen as some insignificant gnat,” James P. Moore Jr., managing director of the Business, Society and Public Policy Initiative at Georgetown's McDonough School of Business, told Bloomberg. In 2012, the UK was a net importer of food and bought $2.4 billion in US agriculture, fish and forestry products. That's compared to $8.1 billion in U.S. agricultural exports to major EU members as a whole. Most U.S. agricultural exports to Britain and the EU are bulk commodities, while the U.S. imports tend to be high-value, consumer-oriented agricultural products, the USDA says.
Moore points out that agriculture is a cornerstone of the European Union, and Britain’s exit would leave a policy vacuum that may be difficult to fill. “Where agriculture is concerned, it was very much the anchor in so many ways to the creation of the European Union,” Moore said.
Britain's exit would certainly affect the bloc’s ag policy and has been a factor in the “exit” debate. Many UK farmers oppose EU rules. “What's gotten the farmers a bit angry is that, for the past few years, there have been efforts in Brussels to limit subsidies and get involved in regulations dealing with the environment,” Moore said.
Were the UK to drop out of the multistate agricultural system, it would leave U.S. regulators and trade officials looking toward the UK government for an indication of what new regulatory structure would emerge, and analysts in the US have yet to predict what that would be, Moore said.
“There is such a view of the unknown that we are literally writing a brand new chapter in economic and political history, and it's going to create just a mess in regard to how we put back some pieces of the puzzle,” Moore said.
The EU’s Common Ag Policy has long been seen as highly protectionist, but it has been broadly supported by many in US geopolitical circles because it served at least partially to unite formerly bitter enemies and warring states.
Thus, if the EU decides to go its own way now, it likely will mean much greater socioeconomic uncertainty across the region that could also face other stresses especially affecting relations with the Middle East and Russia, as well as the US. While it may be too early to estimate the specific impacts on US-EU ag trade, it would seem that most impacts would be negative and possibly significant, and certainly should be watched closely should they occur, Washington Insider believes.