Railroads to Merge for $85 Billion

Union Pacific will buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in a deal worth $85 billion. U.P. says this would create the first coast-to-coast freight rail operator in the U.S. Reuters said, if approved, the deal would be the largest buyout in the sector’s history. It would combine Union Pacific’s tracks in the western two-thirds of the U.S. with Norfolk’s 19,500-mile network covering 22 eastern states. The two railroads would have a combined enterprise value of $250 billion and would unlock about $2.75 billion in annualized synergies. The deal will likely face lengthy regulatory scrutiny amid union concerns over potential rate increases, service disruptions, and job losses. The National Grain and Feed Association says it will undertake an extensive evaluation of the proposed merger to “better understand” the implications for the industry. Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition says the deal will create winners and losers in the shipping industry.

Klobuchar Talks About Proposed USDA Reorganization

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Ranking Member on the Senate Ag Committee, spoke during a Committee hearing on the proposed reorganization of the USDA. The hearing was scheduled on short notice because Klobuchar said, “The administration put together a half-baked plan with no notice and without consulting agricultural leaders.” During her statement, Klobuchar said she supports efforts to make USDA work better, but didn’t think that getting rid of 15,000 employees by firings or early buyouts was good for agriculture. “We have a half-baked agenda that will almost certainly result in worse services for farmers and families in rural communities,” Klobuchar said. “We already have 90 percent of USDA employees out in the field, but you guys plan on breaking down the other ten percent and sending them to different hubs.” She’s also extremely concerned that the reorganization proposal would have a negative impact on USDA’s research.

NACD Holds Summer Conservation Forum in Wisconsin

The National Association of Conservation Districts held its 2025 Summer Conservation Forum and Tours in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, this week. NACD hosted the event in partnership with Wisconsin Land + Water, and this summer’s meeting gathered conservation leaders from across the country. The event spotlighted numerous natural resources conservation efforts in Wisconsin. “Wisconsin is a leader in farmer-driven conservation and water quality initiatives,” said NACD President Gary Blair. “This state shines with strong local and state collaboration and provides us with great examples of partnerships to grow the future of voluntary, locally led conservation.” During the meeting, attendees heard from NRCS Chief Aubrey Bettencourt about strengthening service to the nation’s agricultural producers. “This is an opportunity to re-imagine NRCS, and we’re flipping the business model for what we need to be for the next 90 years,” Bettencourt said. “Join us in imagining that future and creating it for ourselves.” 

Applications Open for Trade Mission to Mexico

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is now accepting applications for its upcoming agribusiness trade mission to Mexico City, Mexico, scheduled for November 3-6. U.S. exporters need to get their applications in this week, by Thursday, July 31. “Strengthening export opportunities for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses is a top priority for USDA,” said Michelle Bekkering, Deputy Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. “This trade mission will connect U.S. producers with key buyers in Mexico, which was the largest export market for U.S. agricultural products in 2024.” Sales totaled more than $30 billion, supporting approximately 190,000 U.S. jobs. Agricultural trade between the U.S. and Mexico under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement reached almost $79 billion in 2024. Growing U.S. exports to Mexico are supported by factors such as rising disposable income among Mexico’s upper middle class, familiarity with U.S. products and food trends, and a strong demand for high-quality agricultural goods. 

TSCRA Launches New World Screwworm Website

The Screwworm Coalition of Texas, a coalition of 13 Texas landowner, livestock, equine, and wildlife groups, launched a new website to deliver reliable information about the New World screwworm. The site compiles information from lead agencies, including the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the Texas Animal Health Commission, and the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. The new online resource offers the public and media easy access to factual information. It also serves as a platform to dispel rumors and correct misinformation regarding the status, planning, preparedness, prevention, and response to New World screwworm in Texas. Site visitors can learn about the sterile insect technique, the only proven method of eradicating the parasite. There are also details about sterile fly production in Panama and progress toward developing new sterile fly facilities. More information is available at screwwormtx.org, including the newest updates, resources, and educational materials on the New World screwworm. 

July Hog Slaughter Lower Than Last Year

Hog slaughter during the four weeks ending on July 26 was 3.7 percent lower than a year ago. That was far lower than the expectations based on the July hog survey. USDA has also lowered some of its initial slaughter estimates. In the near term, pork supplies will remain limited, impacting primarily processing items as buyers need to run consistent production. Ham, trim, and belly prices continue to be well-supported. Retail fresh pork sales have been slow despite record beef prices. Loin values are near year-ago levels, while pork butt and spare rib prices have started to seasonally decline and should see more downside price pressure as slaughter moves higher in the Fall. Ham prices continue to trade very firm, given the shortfall in production. Belly inventories were particularly tight, falling to 44 million pounds in late June. Tariff uncertainty with Mexico has some buyers on the sidelines. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

June Personal Consumption Expenditure at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Weekly Slaughter at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A cold front that has been slow to move through the country this week is getting a bit more of a push southward Thursday as it gets out of the southern Corn Belt and into the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley by Thursday night. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will still form near the front as well as the High Plains and Southeast throughout the day. Much milder air is filling in behind the front, making it very comfortable for the last day of July.

No More National Environmental Studies When Approving GE Seeds

The USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has announced it will no longer conduct a National Environmental Policy Act analysis when approving genetically engineered seeds as “unregulated articles” that can be freely sold on the interstate market. APHIS regulates genetically engineered organisms, and those regulations allow APHIS to grant unregulated status to a GE seed if the plant grown from the GE seed would not pose a greater pest risk than a similar organism. In the past, APHIS has also conducted NEPA reviews when granting unregulated article status to a GE seed to fully consider the expected environmental impacts of the decision. However, following a recent Supreme Court ruling in which the Court held that agencies are not required to conduct NEPA reviews of actions where they do not have the statutory discretion to consider environmental impacts. That means it could be easier to bring new GE seeds to market. 

Ag Groups Support New Trade Deals

A series of new trade deals between the United States and countries around the world will directly benefit America’s farmers and ranchers. Groups like the American Farm Bureau support the agreements, noting that strong and enduring agreements help connect U.S. farmers and ranchers with global markets. The U.S. Grains Council also applauded the trade deals, including the one between the U.S. and the EU. “This deal promises to build upon long-established trade with our eighth-largest grains-in-all-forms trading partner, worth more than $1 billion in the 20203-2024 marketing year and our fourth-largest ethanol trading partner,” said USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand. The Renewable Fuels Association said the deal comes at a good time as corn growers prepare for what will likely be a record harvest. “We stand ready to produce larger volumes of cleaner-burning ethanol and valuable co-products for our customers around the world,” said RFA President Geoff Cooper. 

USDA Gathering Conservation Data to Improve Programs

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, in partnership with the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is reaching out to farmers, ranchers, and agricultural landowners to gather in-depth information about the conservation practices they use. Nearly 23,000 operators nationwide will receive the 2025 Conservation Effects Assessment Project survey. It’s a multi-agency effort led by NRCS to quantify the effects of conservation practices across the nation’s working lands. “Responding to the survey allows farmers to provide the most accurate picture of conservation practices on their cropland,” said NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons. “The information gathered will help inform programs that benefit producers by protecting the natural resources on which their livelihoods depend.” Eligible farmers and landowners may be contacted between November 2025 and March 2026 and asked to participate in the survey. Typical questions will include current farm production practices; chemical, fertilizer, and manure applications; tillage; irrigation use; and currently installed conservation practices. 

Global Hunger Declines, but Rises in Africa and Asia

An estimated 8.2 percent of the global population, or about 673 million people, experienced hunger in 2024, down from 8.5 percent in 2023 and 8.7 percent in 2022. However, the United Nations “The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World” report says results weren’t consistent across the globe. Hunger continued to rise in most of Africa and Western Asia. The report estimates that between 638 and 720 million people faced hunger last year. Based on the minimum estimate of 673 million, this represents a decrease of 15 million people from 2023 and of 22 million in 2022. While the decline is welcome, the latest estimates are still above pre-COVID levels, with the high food inflation of recent years contributing to the slow recovery in food security. Notable improvements were seen in places like southern Asia and Latin America. Estimates say 512 million people could be chronically undernourished by 2030. 

Legislation Would Stop Mislabeling of Imitation Dairy Products

Four senators introduced the bipartisan “Defending Against Imitations and Replacements of Yogurt, Milk, and Cheese to Promote Regular Intake of Dairy Everyday Act,” or the Dairy Pride Act of 2025. The legislation’s goal is to crack down on the unfair practice of mislabeling non-dairy products by using dairy names. The practice, such as calling non-dairy imitation products “milk” or “yogurt” that do not contain dairy and are instead from a plant, nut, or grain, hurts dairy farmers who work tirelessly to ensure their products meet rigorous health standards and causes consumer confusion about the nutritional value of dairy versus imitation products. Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, a state known as America’s Dairyland, is one of the co-sponsors. Baldwin says, “For far too long, imitation dairy products made from plants and nuts have ridden the coattails of our dairy farmers and gotten away with using dairy’s good name without meeting those standards.” 

Rural Mainstreet Index Expands in July

For the first time since July and August of 2023, the Rural Mainstreet Index, a survey of bankers in areas that rely on agriculture, registered two consecutive months of above growth-neutral readings. It’s the highest level for the RMI since July 2023. Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months. Unfortunately, one in four farmers is expected to experience negative income in 2025. For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month. Regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period last year, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, for a decline of 18.5 percent. Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1 percent of total exports.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Q2 GDP at 7:30 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

FOMC Interest Rate Decision at 1 p.m. CDT followed by Fed Chair Powell press conference

Weather

A front continues to slowly sag south Wednesday, getting down into the southern Corn Belt overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue near the front throughout the day, bringing heavy rain and a low risk of severe weather. Significant relief to the recent heat and humidity is building behind the front, though the heat continues south of it.

U.S. and EU Agree to Trade Deal

The United States and the European Union agreed to a trade deal. The BBC said that it ends a standoff that lasted months between two of the world’s biggest economies. Make-or-break negotiations recently took place between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland. At the conclusion, they agreed to a U.S. tariff of 15 percent on all goods from the EU, which is half of the 30 percent import tax rate that Trump had threatened to implement beginning on Friday. Trump added that the EU would open its 27-member bloc markets to U.S. exporters with zero percent tariffs on certain goods. Von der Leyen also applauded the deal, saying it will bring more stability to both sides, which together account for approximately one-third of global trade. One of the EU’s top officials called the deal a “framework” and said the technical details would be negotiated soon.

Smallest U.S. Cattle Herd Since 1973

The July Cattle on Feed Report offered little relief to customers paying higher prices for beef. That’s despite the cycle of herd liquidation that seems to be slowly ending. There were 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1, the lowest mid-year number of cattle since 1973. The USDA also said the number of animals placed in feedlots for weight gain before being sent to packers plunged to its lowest level since 2017. Bloomberg said a severe shortage in the world’s largest beef-producing country has sent cattle costs soaring, wiping out billions in profits for packers and driving record-high beef prices in U.S. grocery stores. Dr. Derrell Peel at Oklahoma State University says the latest USDA numbers offer little indication of herd rebuilding or, at least, it’s not very aggressive so far. “The number of heifers in feedlots remained mostly stable,” Peel told Bloomberg. 

Infested Cherries Intercepted at Detroit Airport

U.S. Customs and Border Protection agriculture specialists intercepted fresh cherries infested with the European cherry fruit fly on June 19. The pest was discovered during a secondary inspection of a five-pound bag of cherries that were coming into the Detroit Metropolitan Airport. The fruit was heavily infested with live fruit fly maggots and was being transported by someone flying into Detroit from Romania. The traveler’s destination was Fish Creek, Wisconsin, which is one of the major tart cherry-producing regions in the U.S. The Detroit Port Director said this was an “excellent interception” by their agriculture specialists. This is a pest that can pose a “major threat” to cherry orchards across the country. European cherry fruit flies have already been discovered in several New York counties, which are now under quarantine to prevent the flies from spreading into other states. The fruit fly is currently the pest that's infecting most European cherries.

Falling Farmer Responses to Surveys are a Growing Problem

Numerous stakeholders, like farmers, Extension Services, researchers, and policymakers, all rely on the data that USDA has collected for more than 150 years. The data is collected through agencies and programs like the National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Economic Research Service. Decreasing responses to USDA’s farmer surveys are beginning to put the integrity of the data at risk. One of the biggest challenges to getting a good survey response is timing. Unfortunately, many survey collection periods overlap with farmers’ busiest times. For example, leading up to the June 30 Planted Acreage Report, NASS contacted almost 92,000 farmers during a time that overlaps with the end of planting and spraying seasons for many row crop farmers. A Farm Bureau Market Intel page says USDA should look to examine ways to increase participation and reliability without imposing more burdens on the already too busy growers whom the data is designed to serve. 

2024 Total U.S. Farm Production Costs Down From 2023

U.S. farm production expenditures were estimated by the USDA at $477.6 billion in 2024, down from $481.9 billion in 2023. The 2024 total farm production expenditures were down 0.9 percent compared to 2023. The four largest expenditures in the U.S. totaled $230 billion, which accounted for 48.1 percent of total expenses. They included feed at 15 percent, farm services at 11 percent, labor at 10.8 percent, and livestock, poultry, and related expenses at 10.4 percent. During 2024, total farm expenditures per farm were just over $254,000, down 0.4 percent from $255,000 in 2023. During 2024, crop farm expenditures dropped to $252.3 billion, down 0.1 percent, while livestock farm expenditures decreased to $225.3 billion, down 1.8 percent. The largest expenditure for crop farmers was labor at $38 billion, farm services, fertilizer, lime, soil conditioners, and rent. Combined crop input costs reached $72.2 billion, making up 29 percent of total crop farm costs. 

American Lamb Board Looking for New Members

The American Lamb Board is looking for new members in 2026, creating an excellent opportunity for industry involvement. Any U.S. producer, feeder, or first handler who owns or purchases lambs may be considered for nomination. “As the current ALB Chairman, I strongly encourage sheep producers to consider filling one of the positions on the Lamb Board,” says Jeff Ebert. “Serving on the Lamb Board gives you firsthand insight into how the checkoff dollars are spent, making it a very educational and rewarding experience.” The USDA established the American Lamb Board to maintain and expand the market for sheep and sheep products. The board is responsible for developing goals and strategies, managing checkoff funds, establishing board and staff policies, and evaluating programs. The 13-member board includes representatives from two regions. Region One is east of the Mississippi River, and Region Two is west of the Mississippi. The nomination deadline is September 8. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Goods at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Consumer Confidence at 9 a.m. CDT

Weather

A front is slowly pushing southward through the country this week. For Tuesday, it will be located from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes where scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some may be severe, especially on the western end of the front. Temperatures south of the front continue to be very hot and humid while relief is filling in behind it.

Outcry as USDA to Cut Salaries and Relocate Staff

Critics are decrying the reorganization plan for USDA announced last week by Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.  In a written statement, Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic ranking member of the Senate Ag Committee, condemned the plan as a “half-baked proposal” and called for USDA officials to appear before Congress. “A reorganization of this scale will impact USDA’s ability to provide critical services to Americans and undermine the agency’s trusted expertise that farmers and families count on … we must have an immediate hearing before more damage is done.” Rebecca Wolf, senior policy analyst at Food & Water Watch Senior Food, a non-profit research and advocacy group, said, “(The) move further guts the government’s ability to protect public health, the environment and food safety. The real-world consequences will be severe, directly affecting people’s lives.” The reorganization is at least partly a cost-cutting measure, according to Rollins, and the relocated staff could see significant salary reductions due to lower rates paid outside the capital due to differences in the cost of living.

Scattered Corn Pollination Problems Emerging

There are some reports surfacing from farmers and agronomists of corn pollination issues resulting from the "overly tight tassel wrap" phenomenon. The condition is not widespread, but there are some pictures and commentary posted on social media and other websites. Reigning world corn-yield record holder David Hula reports he is seeing the issue in some Virginia fields and also hearing reports along the eastern seaboard. Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie says he is seeing the issue occur in parts of Illinois as corn reaches about V6 or V7 up through tassel – as the crop goes through rapid growth. "This corn is growing like crazy, putting on an inch and a half of root a day, putting on a node every three days, that type of thing. The tassel can get wrapped really tight, and usually it's triggered by some type of stress," said Ferrie.

FDA to Define ‘Ultra Processed’ Foods

The Food and Drug Administration is working to create a uniform definition of ultra-processed foods, opening the door to regulating one of the main targets of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” movement. The agency, in partnership with HHS and the USDA, is asking stakeholders for information and data that will help establish a federally recognized definition of ultra-processed foods. There is no single authoritative definition for ultra-processed foods for the U.S. food supply, the FDA said. A definition could help shape future regulation, including what types of food can be eligible for school lunch or food assistance benefit programs. Ultra-processed foods such as chips, sodas and packaged bread make up more than half of the total dietary energy consumed in high-income countries, including the U.S., according to the National Institutes of Health.

Corn Sales Strong Last Week, Soybean Sales Struggled

USDA’s latest grain export sales report, covering the week through July 17, held mixed but mostly solid results for traders to digest. Corn volume led the way once more, staying on the higher end of analyst estimates. Wheat sales improved 50% from the prior four-week average, besting all trade guesses in the process and hitting a “marathon-esque” number. Soybean sales struggled, in contrast, after old-crop sales slumped 41% lower week-over-week. Corn exports found 54.2 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales eased 2% lower week-over-week, while total sales were on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 19.7 million and 63.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year remain noticeably above last year’s pace after reaching 2.369 billion bushels.

Pulse Farmers Setting Sights High

Last week during the USA Pulses Summit in Spokane, Washington, the group set a lofty goal: to double production and demand by the year 2030. These crops are mainly grown in the Northern Plains, as well as the Pacific Northwest today. But Tim McGreevy, a farmer and CEO of USA Pulses, says the crops can be grown across the country. And with prices for crops like corn, soybeans and wheat so low today, pulse crops could be a good option for farmers searching to try something new. “Farmers can raise these crops all over the country,” McGreevy says. “Our issue is we’ve got to raise demand.” He says prices for pulse crops are surprisingly good. If farmers across the Midwest who are struggling with low corn, soybean and wheat prices are looking for a crop to add to their rotation, he says pulse crops may be worth a try.

Flood, Carter Reintroduce SAF Information Act

Reps. Mike Flood, R-Neb., and Troy A. Carter, Sr., D-La., have reintroduced the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Information Act. The SAF Information Act directs the EIA to include data on SAF in its Petroleum Supply Month report and its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, including data related to the type, origin and volume of feedstock used in the production of SAF, along with the total amount of SAF produced domestically and imported. Rep. Flood stated, “SAF represents just one of many promising ways to grow the biofuels sector and boost our rural communities. Our straightforward, commonsense bill requires the EIA to include SAF in its published data, giving industry leaders and stakeholders better insight into production trends. I’m grateful to my colleague for partnering with me once again to support the growth of the SAF industry.” Flood and Carter introduced a previous version of the bill in August 2024.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue early Monday morning in parts of the Midwest, tapping into the extreme heat and humidity that has spread through much of the Central and Eastern U.S. But the country will be watching storms currently in Montana into North Dakota as they grow throughout the day into a potential destructive derecho that is being talked about by the Storm Prediction Center for later Monday afternoon and evening across eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. That area may shift depending on the development of additional thunderstorms ahead of that likely line of storms.

China Suspends Tariff Exclusion for U.S. Ag Products

In the latest trade developments, China has reportedly ended the tariff exclusion on American agricultural products. Fresh Fruit Portal says China’s government hasn’t issued an official statement yet. Importers in China have reported to the Foreign Agricultural Service that applications for market-based tariff exclusions will no longer be accepted beginning on August 1. Some of the products include grains, tree nuts, alcohol, leather, and fruits. Importers also said the previously approved exclusions will only be valid until September 14. The affected products were previously eligible for tariff exclusions under a process established in March 2020 by the State Council Tariff Commission of China. The process allowed importers to apply for waivers from the retaliatory Section 301 tariffs on certain U.S. products. Although the process did allow some items outside the predefined list, it covered a total of 696 tariff lines, of which approximately 150 lines apply to U.S. agricultural products.  

Australia Relaxes Curbs on U.S. Beef Imports

Australia says it will ease up its restrictions on U.S. beef imports. The country’s ag minister made the announcement this week, potentially smoothing trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump, who was unhappy about the beef import blockage. Reuters said it’s unlikely to significantly boost shipments because beef prices are a lot lower in Australia. The country’s ag minister said a rigorous science and risk-based assessment had found that U.S. measures monitoring and controlling the movement of cattle mean that biosecurity risks are effectively being managed. “The government will never compromise on biosecurity,” said Ag Minister Julie Collins. “Australia stands for open and fair trade, and our cattle industry has significantly benefited from this.” U.S. beef has been allowed into Australia since 2019, but few suppliers could prove their animals had only been in the U.S., because cattle frequently move between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico without being adequately tracked.

NCBA Reacts to a More Open Australian Market

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said, for the first time in 20 years, Australia will accept shipments of fresh and frozen U.S. beef. That ends decades of bureaucratic red tape and prolonged negotiations that have prevented American cattle producers from accessing the Australian market. “For 20 years, U.S. beef was denied access to Australia while they exported $29 billion in beef to U.S. consumers,” said NCBA President Buck Wehrbein (WEAR-byne). “The lack of two-way, science-based trade has been a sticking point for many years, and we’re pleased the Australian market is officially open to U.S. beef.” The U.S.-Australia Free Trade Agreement took effect in 2005 and was intended to allow U.S. beef to be sold in Australia. For 20 years, no U.S. beef could get into the Australian market, but during the same period, Australia sold more than $28 billion worth of beef on the United States’ market. 

EPA Proposed Registering Dicamba Again

The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing to re-register Dicamba herbicide for over-the-top application on cotton and soybeans. Successful Farming says there will be restrictions intended to limit possible ecological harm. Dicamba has been blamed for significant off-target damage to crops and other vegetation. Federal courts have vacated the registration twice, in 2020 and 2024. The decision in February 2024 prevented the product from being used during the past two growing seasons for soybeans and cotton. The agency also said it plans to impose new mitigation requirements for the herbicide to address ecological impacts. Among the proposed restrictions is a single-use maximum application rate of 0.5 acid equivalent Dicamba per acre. Not everyone was happy with the announcement. The Center for Biological Diversity, which has challenged past registrations, immediately criticized the agency’s decision to move forward with the registration. Bayer, which makes Xtendimax, one of three Dicamba products, applauded the EPA’s announcement. 

More Reaction to Indonesia-U.S. Trade Framework

The White House announced a Framework for an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade with Indonesia that will unlock significant market access for American farmers, producers, and manufacturers. The deal will lower tariff and non-tariff barriers for American exporters. “The agreement opens the door to billions in new exports, including soybeans, wheat, and other key commodities,” said Mike Seyfert, President of the National Grain and Feed Association. The National Corn Growers Association said Indonesia is an important market for U.S. DDGS, and U.S. corn and corn products will now have duty-free access in this deal. U.S. Meat Export Federation President Dan Halstrom says Indonesia is an incredible market with a lot of potential, and the opportunity for U.S. beef could reach $250 million annually. Indonesia has agreed to purchase $4.5 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, wheat, and cotton, which is good news for U.S. ag.  

Rollins Announces USDA Reorganization

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a new reorganization plan for the USDA. The plan refocuses its core operations to better align with its founding mission of supporting U.S. farming, ranching, and forestry. The reorganization plan consists of four parts: ensuring the size of USDA’s workforce aligns with available financial resources and agricultural priorities; bringing USDA closer to its customers; eliminating management layers and bureaucracy; and consolidating redundant support functions. To bring USDA closer to the people it serves while providing a more affordable cost of living for employees, USDA has developed a phased in plan to relocate much of its agency headquarters and staff out of the Washington, D.C. area to five hub locations. USDA’s five hub locations are Raleigh, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Indianapolis, Indiana; Fort Collins, Colorado; and Salt Lake City, Utah. “It’s long past time that the USDA better serve our farmers, ranchers, and producers,” said Rollins.

Friday Watch List

Markets

Cattle on Feed at 2 p.m. CDT

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Weather

A front that has slowly moved through the Corn Belt this week is stalling from Kansas to Ohio on Friday. Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue along that front going through the weekend which may cause some flooding. A new system is moving through the Canadian Prairies and into the Northern Plains, where showers will develop as well. The Gulf Coast continues to watch a disturbance moving west with showers and thunderstorms, but with limited potential for becoming tropical.

Ag Exports Contribute Billions to the U.S. Economy

America’s farm and food product exports create value and generate economic activity within and outside of the agricultural sector. Increased exports of agricultural products lead to higher demand for transportation services, packaging materials, or financial services across the supply chain, with additional employment services and economic activities required for exports. In 2023, the value of U.S. agricultural exports, comprising both commodities and food products, hit $175.5 billion. In turn, these exports generated an additional $186.9 billion in economic activity. Exports of bulk, unprocessed commodities like soybeans and corn, valued at $74.2 billion, generated an additional $66.2 billion in economic activity during 2023. Including the value of the exports themselves, U.S. agricultural exports generated a total economic output of $362.4 billion in 2023. That means every one dollar of ag product exports generated a total of $2.06 of domestic economic activity, on average. Non-bulk exports generated $120.7 billion in additional economic activity. 

House Ag Committee Hears About Prop 12 Impact on U.S. Pork

Pat Hord, an Ohio pork producer and vice president of the National Pork Producers Council, and Holly Cook, NPPC Economist, testified before the House Ag Committee on the implications of California’s Prop 12 for farmers and food prices. On behalf of the industry, they called for Congress to support Committee Chair GT Thompson’s efforts to address the severe threat to the U.S. pork industry, including the spiderweb of state regulations it invites. Hord said, “Despite producing Proposition 12-compliant pork, I’m here to say Prop 12 and an unmitigated regulatory patchwork threaten our farm.” Prop. 12, a California ballot initiative, bans the sale of pork that doesn’t comply with the state’s prescriptive and arbitrary production standards. They explained how widespread adoption of measures like Prop. 12 would lead to even more consumers paying higher prices for pork. California prices have already risen 16 percent for bacon and 41 percent for pork loins. 

White House Says U.S. and Japan Have Reached a Trade Deal

President Donald Trump said that the U.S. and Japan reached a deal in which the U.S. reduces its reciprocal tariff rate in exchange for increased market access for rice and other agricultural products."We just completed a massive trade deal with Japan,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Japan will open its country to trade on items like cars, trucks, rice, and other agricultural products.” The president also said Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S. “at my discretion.” He added that the U.S. would receive 90 percent of any profits, although he didn’t provide further details. The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment, and neither did the Japanese embassy. Agriculture Dot Com says Japan has previously stressed that its government would not sacrifice the country’s agricultural sector to secure a deal with the U.S. Trump had initially threatened Japan with a 24 percent tariff in April.

Groups Applaud Framework for Indonesia-U.S. Trade Agreement

U.S. Wheat Associates welcomed the announcement of an agreed-upon framework between the U.S. government and the Republic of Indonesia for negotiating an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade(Link is external). The proposed trade deal is expected to directly benefit U.S. wheat farmers through the removal of Indonesian tariffs on 99 percent of U.S. products, a reduction in non-tariff barriers, and new purchase commitments for U.S. ag products, including wheat. “We are excited and grateful for this wide-reaching government commitment that includes the agreement signed earlier this month between Indonesian flour millers and the U.S. wheat industry,” said USW president Mike Spier. Ryan LeGrand, president of the U.S. Grains Council, says his group commends the administration on the historic trade deal with Indonesia. “It will enhance trade between both countries and places a zero tariff on the products that the Council represents,” LeGrand said. “In 2023-2024, Indonesia was the fourth-largest importer of DDGS with solubles.”

NCGA and Ag Data Transparent Announce New Carbon Project

The National Corn Growers Association and Ag Data Transparent announced a new partnership to help bring clarity to farmers interested in carbon market contracts. “The rapid expansion of carbon programs and solution providers in agriculture presents immense opportunities but also significant risks,” said Sean Arians, NCGA Vice President of Sustainable Production and Value Chain Engagement. Without a neutral, transparent informational foundation, farmers risk unforeseen obligations and uncertain returns. Recognizing this urgent need, NCGA is launching this initiative in partnership with ADT while also working to secure additional funding from industry organizations and businesses. The first phase of the project will launch this Fall. Agricultural stakeholders who support transparency in the carbon marketplace are encouraged to participate and contribute to the project. Wide engagement will improve the initiative’s ability to provide transparent certification and propel the emerging market while limiting risks for farmers. For information, email Todd Janzen at janzen@aglaw.us.

June Milk Production Up 3.4 Percent

Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states in June totaled 18.5 billion pounds, up 3.4 percent from June 2024. May revised production, at 19.3 billion pounds, was up 2.4 percent from May 2024. The May revision represented an increase of 136 million pounds or 0.7 percent from last month’s preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,045 pounds for June, 33 pounds above June 2024. The number of milk cows in those states was 9.03 million head, 151,000 head more than June 2024, and 3,000 head more than May 2025. Milk production in the U.S. during the April-June quarter totaled 58.7 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from the April-June quarter of 2024. The number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter averaged 9.46 million head, 56,000 head more than the January-March quarter and 127,000 head more than the same period last year. 

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Livestock Slaughter at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A slow-moving front continues to slowly march southeast through the Corn Belt on Thursday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely from the southwestern Plains up through the Great Lakes. Some additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the High Plains as well as the Gulf Coast, where a small disturbance is trying to organize into a tropical storm, but will likely fail.

Grain Carriers Discuss Potential Merger

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are in merger talks to create the largest railroad in North America that would connect the East and West Coasts. The merger discussions began during the first quarter of 2025, according to someone familiar with the talks but not authorized to publicly discuss them. It would combine the largest and smallest of the country’s six major freight railroads. Both railroads declined to comment. Within the industry, the AP says there is a lot of debate over the merger and whether it would be approved by the Surface Transportation Board. The questions come despite regulators approving the deal that created CPKC railroad two years ago with the Canadian Pacific’s $31 billion acquisition of Kansas City Southern Railroad. That merger combined the two smallest major railroads in North America and left only six major freight railroads. But at the time, it was the first approved merger in 20 years.

New Protocol Announced for Reducing Dairy Emissions

Thanks to a new partnership, dairy producers will soon have additional options for achieving and marketing verified greenhouse gas reductions from on-farm sustainability practices. The National Milk Producers Federation, California Dairies, Inc., and Athian (A-thee-an) have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a “carbon intensity” protocol supported by the FARM Environmental Stewardship Program, which seeks to define, quantify, and verify how production efficiencies and new practice adoptions contribute to positive environmental outcomes. “Facilitating supply chain partnerships is an important part of our mission,” said Kendra Tolley, chief product officer for Athian. “This MOU is a perfect demonstration.” Athian is a technology company founded to connect food company buyers looking to source Scope 3 reductions with sustainability-minded farmers in their supply chain. “This partnership supports dairy farmers interested in carbon-claim opportunities by creating a streamlined process,” said Nicole Ayache (aye-ah-sh, chief sustainability officer for NMPF, which administers the National Dairy FARM Program.  

USB Approves FY 2026 Budget to Strengthen Resilience of Soy

In the year ahead, the United Soybean Board will boost demand for U.S. Soy, drive on-farm resilience, and bring value to the nearly half a million U.S. soybean farmers. Led by its 77 farmer-leaders, USB recently approved a $121.3 million budget for the 2026 fiscal year. The board is strategically allocating funds for vital research, promotion, and education investments. This spans the food, feed, fuel, industrial, exports, and sustainable production market segments. “Just like we have done on our farms, USB’s farmer-leaders have sharpened their pencils, identifying high-impact opportunities that provide return to America’s soybean farmers,” said Phillip Good, USB Board Chair. “As soybean farmers navigate trade and input uncertainty along with unpredictable weather, the Soy Checkoff aims to be the long-term, steady hand on the rudder.” The board is also looking 5–10 years out to ensure that U.S. farmers have viable markets and protection against weather, weed, and disease pressure.

Weekly Wheat, Bean Inspections Increase

Data from USDA shows inspections of wheat and beans for offshore delivery rose week to week while corn assessments declined. Wheat inspections totaled 732,300 metric tons in the seven days ending on July 17. The agency report says that’s up from 446,000 tons a week earlier. Examinations of soybeans for offshore delivery increased to 365,000 metric tons from 151,300 tons during the previous week. Corn saw the only decline on the week, falling to 983,600 metric tons, which the USDA said was down from 1.31 million tons a week earlier. Since the start of the marketing year on September 1, corn inspections total 58.8 million acres versus 45.6 million last year. Soybean inspections now total 46.8 million tons, up from 42.4 million tons at the same point last year, and wheat examinations since the marketing year began June 1 are at three million metric tons, up from 2.66 million last year. 

USDA Invests $80 Million to Protect Forests and Fuel Economic Growth

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins said the U.S. Forest Service is awarding $80 million in Wood Innovation Grants to spur wood products manufacturing, expand active forest management, and accelerate energy innovation across America’s timber-producing communities. “The U.S. has a bounty of natural resources that we must properly manage to sustain our future economy and boost rural communities,” Rollins said. “Proper forest use and management lowers our reliance on foreign products.” The investments in innovation that ensure a steady, sustainable supply of American wood not only support jobs and fuel economies, but they also protect the people and communities we serve, as well as the forest resources they depend on to survive and thrive. The new spending also tears down unnecessary barriers that have kept forests dangerously overstocked and unhealthy, putting communities at risk from wildfire and other threats. The broader goal is to advance economic opportunity and ensure long-term forest resilience.

Texas Ag Department Taking Steps to Stop Screwworm

Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller announced a new step in the battle against the reemergence of the New World Screwworm near the United States. Working closely with USDA, the Texas Department of Agriculture is spearheading efforts to reintroduce an improved pest control method to respond against the Screwworm called Swormlure Bait. “The Screwworm isn’t just a Texas problem,” Miller said. “We cannot wait for sterile flies alone to turn the tide, so that’s why we are applying Swormlure.” Swormlure is a synthetic bait designed to attract adult screwworm flies and may be highly effective when combined with insecticides in eradicating NWS. “Back in the 1960s, we used this combination to help wipe out one of the nastiest parasites we’ve ever faced,” said Miller. Swormlure-5 bait, when used as an attractant and capture tool, is highly targeted. It only impacts screwworms and blowflies and should pose no threat to beneficial insects.

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A slow-moving front is finally on the move out of the Northern Plains and will get into more of the Corn Belt on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across much of the North-Central U.S. Heat continues to build south of this front and will be oppressive in some areas. A disturbance is also moving across Florida into the northern Gulf of America and will need to be watched for development. 

Beef Prices Hit Record Highs in June

Ground beef prices continue hitting record-high levels. Newsweek says that’s despite still shrinking cattle herds and import restrictions set to push costs even higher. Government data says the average price of a pound of 100 percent ground beef rose to $6.12 in June, 12 percent higher than last year. That’s also up from $5.98 in May and $5.47 in June. Industry experts say this trend shows no signs of slowing down, which means that there may be upward pressure on prices through 2026 and beyond. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose eight percent to $11.49 per pound. Axios said the U.S. is dealing with significantly lower beef supplies, and that’s what is driving up the price of beef right now. The number of U.S. farms, including ranches, dropped by seven percent between 2017 and 2022, and it’s taking a long time to rebuild U.S. herds. 

Senator Demands Safeguard for Farmers’ Financial Information

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is demanding that the USDA safeguard farmers’ personal and financial information and rescind the Department of Government Efficiency’s unprecedented access to USDA’s payment systems. Reports showed that DOGE has access to USDA databases containing farmers’ sensitive financial information. This intrusion breaches farmers’ privacy and raises serious concerns about the future of USDA payments, our nation’s food security, and the consolidation of farmland and processing operations. “Farmers share sensitive financial information with USDA when seeking federal loans or disaster assistance,” Baldwin said. “Historically, only trained Farm Service Agency staff and senior USDA officials have had access to this data.” She also said there is no clear justification for the DOGE access, and it raises serious concerns about data security, farmers’ privacy, and the potential misuse of confidential records. “Farmers face big challenges, and the accessibility and security of USDA resources is more important than ever,” she added.

Bangladesh Commits to Annual Wheat Purchases

Under a newly signed Memorandum of Understanding with U.S. Wheat Associates, the Bangladesh government committed to purchasing 700,000 metric tons, or 25.7 million bushels, of U.S. wheat annually. The deal reaffirms the country’s commitment to bolstering national food security and advancing trade relations with the United States. The MOU also helps American wheat farmers gain consistent demand in the Bangladesh market. “Through this MOU signing, the Bangladesh government reiterates its commitment to deepening and renewing its longstanding friendship with the U.S.,” said USW President and CEO Mike Spier. “The delegation emphasizes the need to strengthen and expand trade relations between the U.S. and Bangladesh.” The agreement is also an opportunity for U.S. wheat farmers to demonstrate on a large scale how U.S. farmers can reliably meet the country’s need for high-quality milling wheat. USW also says the procurement of U.S. wheat reflects an effort to address the trade imbalance between the countries.

National FFA Working on New Leadership Labs

The National FFA Organization recently announced a partnership with Vivayic, the nation’s largest learning solution provider for agriculture, to create virtual leadership labs. This unprecedented collection of modules will use a challenge-based learning approach to help prepare FFA members for success. Development of these online programs will start this Fall, with plans to make the leadership labs available to FFA members by the summer of 2026. “We believe partnering with Vivayic on this project is an exciting step forward in making leadership education more accessible, engaging, and impactful for our members,” said Christine White, the chief program officer at the National FFA Organization. “As we expand to reach more than one million members, this collaboration ensures we’re combining innovation with real-world insight to equip every young leader, no matter where they are, with the tools they need to grow and succeed.” Once complete, the labs will be free and available online. 

USDA Issues July Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

The 2025 beef production forecast is lowered on the slower expected pace of cattle slaughter in the second half of the year. Beef production in 2026 is adjusted upward on greater anticipated marketings. 2025 slaughter steer prices are adjusted higher based on price data through June, and the 2026 forecast is unchanged from June. In dairy, based on recent data in milk cow inventory, dairy cow slaughter, and expectations of favorable margins in the near-term, the forecasts for the average number of dairy cows, milk per cow, and total milk production have all been revised upward for this year and 2026. Total commercial pork production in 2025 is forecast at 28 billion pounds, 0.9 percent higher than in 2024. In 2026, pork production is forecast at 28.5 billion pounds, 1.6 percent greater than this year. In poultry, projected broiler production is adjusted higher in 2025 on strong slaughter weights and near-term hatchery indicators.  

USDA Accepting Applications for Trade Mission to Mexico

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service is accepting applications for its upcoming agribusiness trade mission to Mexico City, scheduled for November 3-6. U.S. exporters interested in exploring trade opportunities in Mexico’s dynamic agricultural market must apply by July 31. “Strengthening export opportunities for American farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses is a top priority of USDA,” said Deputy Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Michelle Bekkering. “This trade mission will connect U.S. producers with key buyers in Mexico, expanding economic opportunities, supporting rural prosperity, and keeping American agricultural products globally competitive.” Mexico was the largest export market for U.S. agricultural products in 2024, with sales totaling more than $30 billion and supporting approximately 190,000 U.S. jobs. Growing U.S. exports to Mexico are supported by factors like rising disposable income among Mexico’s upper middle class, familiarity with U.S. products, and strong demand for high-quality agricultural goods. Opportunities in Mexico include several agricultural product sectors.

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at 7:30 a.m. CDT

No other major economic reports scheduled.

Weather

A front and system are working through the Northern Plains on Tuesday, where scattered showers and thunderstorms could be severe as they get into the Upper Midwest and possibly Nebraska and Iowa as well. Areas of heavy rain will also occur. Some additional storms will fire through the southwestern Plains and across the Southeast, all connected to the same system.

White House Hints Trump Farmworker Policy is Coming

White House border czar Tom Homan said last week that the Trump administration is considering possible changes to its immigration enforcement policy as it relates to farm and hospitality workers. In an interview on NewsNation’s “Cuomo,” Homan said people in the White House are talking about various policy solutions, and he expects to see an announcement sometime soon. The Trump administration has sent mixed messages about its approach to immigration raids that affect farms and migrant farmworkers. A week ago, President Trump announced a program intended to support the agriculture industry, which has complained to the White House that the deportation efforts have disrupted business. Many farms rely on migrant workers, including workers in the country illegally. The program would not provide “amnesty,” Trump and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stressed at the time, though they offered few details about what it would do.

Ag Groups Praising Callahan's Nomination for Chief Ag Negotiator

Agricultural groups are offering praise for Julie Callahan after President Donald Trump nominated her to fill the role of chief agricultural negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. If confirmed by the Senate, Callahan would succeed Doug McKalip, who held the post in the Biden administration. Callahan is currently the assistant trade representative for agricultural affairs and commodity policy and a longtime civil servant. American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said, "Dr. Callahan is a pro with nearly a decade of experience negotiating trade agreements. She understands how important international partnerships are to agriculture and the critical role of strong export markets to strengthen our farm economy." USA Rice President & CEO Peter Bachmann said, "After nearly a decade of working with Julie, we know with full certainty that she's more than capable of doing this job.”

USDA Fires 70 Foreign Researchers Following Security Review

The USDA said it has fired 70 foreign contract researchers after a national security review intended to secure the U.S. food supply from adversaries including China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. "USDA has completed a thorough review of individuals authorized to work on contracts with the department and identified approximately 70 individuals from countries of concern," a spokesperson said. "The individuals working on these contracts from countries of concern will no longer be able to work on USDA projects." U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins on July 8 had announced a farm security plan that included efforts to bar purchases of U.S. farmland by nationals of the four countries, and to terminate any existing research agreements with them. Rollins said the moves were necessary to secure the U.S. food supply.

Wisconsin Soybean Growers Can See Checkoff Investments First-Hand

The Wisconsin Soybean Marketing Board is using a national model to show state growers where their checkoff dollars are being spent. Farmer and Board President Jonathan Gibbs says he has participated in the See for Yourself Tour through the United Soybean Board’s national checkoff and wanted to do the same thing at the state level. Gibbs says, “We kind of did it as a pilot program last year, and we decided we wanted to open it up to basically any of the checkoff-paying farmers that were interested this year.” Gibbs says they have eight slots open for farmers to participate in the three-day statewide tour highlighting projects the checkoff has invested in. “We’re basically showcasing in-state, whether it’s research dollars or other investment dollars that we’re doing, research, promotion, new uses, education. We’re trying to convey that to our soybean farmers.” Gibbs says the Wisconsin Soybean Marketing Board wants to be as transparent as possible, showing farmers where their checkoff dollars are being spent.

National Farm Safety and Health Week 2025 Coming in September

National Farm Safety and Health Week 2025 is quickly approaching. This year's theme is "Safety First, Avoid the Worst." Since 1944, one week each year has been designated as a time to focus on some of the unique challenges faced by agricultural communities. NFSHW is organized by the National Education Center for Agricultural Safety (NECAS), an agricultural partner of the National Safety Council. This year, NFSHW will be celebrated from Sept. 21 to 27, with activities taking place across the U.S. NFSHW 2025 will spotlight critical safety topics through educational workshops and daily webinars, offering valuable information and resources for farmers, ranchers, agricultural workers and rural communities. In addition to educational webinars, many community outreach events will take place nationwide, featuring interactive exhibits, safety demonstrations and local vendors. Local FFA and 4-H programs will be providing materials and presentations on farm safety and healthy lifestyles. 

Tar Spot Confirmed in 10 States, 26 Iowa Counties

According to the latest Crop Protection Network map, positive cases of tar spot have been reported in 26 Iowa counties so far this growing season. First reported in the Corn Belt in 2015, the disease has been confirmed in Iowa since 2016. Now all 99 Iowa counties have a history with the disease. This season, tar spot has also been confirmed in neighboring Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska. Kansas, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York have reported positive cases as well. Gentry Sorenson covers a number of northwest Iowa counties as an extension agronomist. He says the crop is late stage vegetative to R2 in his area. That’s about the right time to consider applying fungicide to target tar spot. Multi-state fungicide research results show that applications made for tar spot management are most effective and economical when made between R2-R3, even when disease developed during early vegetative stages, said a June 20 Nebraska CropWatch article.

Monday Watch List

Markets

AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops at 9 a.m. CDT

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

A ridge across the eastern half of the U.S. will cause temperatures to rise on Monday, being extremely hot across the Central and Southeastern U.S. However, an old front across the southern Corn Belt could cause showers to occur and keep temperatures down at least a little bit as they cause some areas of heavy rain. Another front is moving into the Northern Plains and will be another spot to see showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day. Some of those could be severe.

No Crackdown on Pesticide Use

The Trump administration says there won’t be a crackdown on pesticide use in the U.S. Politico says that’s despite a report from the Make America Healthy Again Committee that called crop protection products dangerous to people’s health. During a recent policy roundtable in Washington, D.C., seven out of the ten speakers mentioned how important pesticides and fertilizers are in modern agricultural production systems. Agriculture industry lobbyists have been pushing back against the Make America Healthy Again Committee report, which linked pesticides to cancer and other diseases. A White House official, speaking anonymously to Politico, says a plan for acting on that report is due in August and won’t include new policies on pesticide use. The promise may signal the White House is eager to smooth out trouble spots with farmers and farm groups that have typically supported the administration but felt alienated by plans to overhaul the nation’s food supply.  

Corn Growers Want MAHA Intervention

The National Corn Growers Association sent a letter to the White House asking President Trump to intervene as the Make America Healthy Again Commission prepares to release policy recommendations that question the safety of pesticides that have already been approved by the EPA. “Our alarm stems from the initial assessment, which raised pesticide safety questions that have already been answered repeatedly over the decades by research and regulatory agencies,” the letter said. “If such language is included in the policy recommendations, it could significantly hamper the work of America’s farmers and raise prices for consumers without providing any additional layer of safety for the American public.” The letter says if the pesticides in the original report were to disappear completely, crop yields could decrease by more than 70 percent due to pests, weeds, and disease. Every pesticide approved for use must submit dozens, if not hundreds, of test results for EPA review. 

Julie Callahan Nominated for Chief Ag Negotiator Position

Julie Callahan, the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Agricultural Affairs and Commodity Policy, is President Trump’s nominee for the role of Chief Agricultural Negotiator. Callahan has been with the agency since 2016, serving as senior director for agricultural affairs before being promoted to the deputy USTR position in 2020. The President has now nominated people to serve in all USTR deputy roles. The U.S. Grains Council appreciates the President for working quickly to nominate the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for this critical job. “The U.S. Grains Council and I, personally, have worked with Julie for many years, and I know, once she’s approved, she will have the producers and agribusinesses top of mind as she conducts her work with trading partners around the world,” said Ryan LeGrand, President and CEO of the U.S. Grains Council. Among her previous work experiences, Callahan held senior leadership with the Food and Drug Administration.

Farmers Union Testifies on Credit and Risk Management

Montana Farmers Union member John Wicks testified before the House Ag Committee’s Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities, Risk Management, and Credit. His testimony detailed the importance of credit and risk management for family farmers. “While access to affordable and reliable credit and well-functioning risk management tools are important for family farmers, we must have fair and competitive markets and a robust farm safety net,” Wicks said during his testimony. “Recent changes to improve the farm safety net may help alleviate some challenges with persistently high input costs and low commodity prices, but farmers still face major economic stress as long as corporate monopolies in agriculture remain unchecked, as they are today.” Wicks made recommendations to improve the Farm Service Agency’s loan program, including increasing loan limits to reflect the current economic environment, making it more feasible to restructure debt, and ensuring the programs meet the unique needs of all producers. 

U.S. Dairy Biogas Systems Have Doubled Since 2020

Coming off June Dairy Month, the American Biogas Council released new data on the continued growth of dairy-based biogas systems in the U.S. According to the Council, the number of operational dairy biogas systems has more than doubled since 2020, with more than $53 billion invested in renewable energy and methane capture infrastructure. As of June 2025, 471 dairy biogas systems are in operation. Collectively, they capture over 144,000 cubic feet per minute of biogas. That total is the equivalent of powering approximately 615,000 homes annually. While the systems reduce methane emissions and create renewable energy, they also recycle the manure from about 2.3 million cows, producing natural fertilizer and animal bedding while reducing odors. That’s about 15 billion gallons of manure put to beneficial use every year. They also eliminate almost one million tons of methane emissions each year. Also, an estimated 2,980 additional dairies are still eligible for biogas development.  

Summer Lambventures Grill-Off Returns for 2025

The American Lamb Board has officially announced the return of the popular campaign called the Summer Lambventures Grill-Off for 2025. This year’s initiative aims to enhance consumer engagement by introducing a competitive twist that features both amateur and professional hosts. The campaign ran from May 19 to July 6, and a public voting period continues on until August 29, 2025. Nine amateur hosts from three distinct lifestyle categories, including Patio Party Planners, Fit Foodies, and Outdoor Adventurers, will organize grilling parties centered around American Lamb. The public will have an opportunity to vote for both their favorite Pro and Amateur Host parties. The campaign is intended to solidify American Lamb’s position as the go-to protein for summer gatherings in 2025. “Building on the success of last year, the Lambventures Grill-Off is set to be an epic event that will help ALB reach several strategic goals,” said ALB Chair Jeff Ebert. 

Friday Watch List

Markets

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report at 2:30 p.m. CDT

Weather

Several features will combine to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A small disturbance in the northern Gulf will keep showers going near the coast. A stalled front will produce showers from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, while a system moving through the Northern Plains will move into the Upper Midwest with showers and storms of its own. This last system has the best chance to produce severe weather.

New USDA Plan Will Boost Meat and Poultry Safety

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a new comprehensive plan to boost USDA’s efforts to combat foodborne illness. She spoke during the opening of USDA’s new, modernized Midwestern Food Safety Laboratory. The Plan will better position USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, which is responsible for ensuring meat, poultry, and egg products are safe, wholesome, and properly labeled, to protect the nation’s food supply. The Plan includes steps like enhancing microbiological testing and inspection oversight. USDA will also equip FSIS Inspectors with updated training and tools, empower those inspectors to take action to drive compliance, strengthen state partnerships, and find a more effective and achievable approach to address salmonella in poultry products. “We’re charting a new course in giving consumers confidence that their meat, poultry, and egg products meet the best-in-class food safety standards,” Rollins said. “I look forward to continued collaboration with states and food producers to protect public health.” 

Poultry Producers Respond to USDA Food Safety Plan

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a new plan to boost her agency’s efforts to combat foodborne illness. “America’s chicken producers appreciate USDA’s common sense and science-based approach to achieving improvements in food safety,” said Dr. Ashley Peterson, senior vice president of scientific and regulatory affairs. “We share the department’s goals to further reduce foodborne illnesses and promote public health, with an emphasis on reducing regulatory burdens.” NCC also applauded USDA for withdrawing earlier this year the proposed Salmonella regulations that were introduced by the Biden administration. “As it was proposed based on misinterpretation of the science, it would have had no meaningful impact on public health, would have led to an extraordinary amount of food waste, and increased costs for consumers and producers,” Peterson added. “We thank the Secretary for her leadership and the agency’s commitment to finding a more effective and achievable plan to combat salmonella in U.S. poultry products.” 

USTR Announces Section 301 Investigation of Brazil

The Office of the United States Trade Representative initiated an investigation of Brazil under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The Office will seek to determine whether the acts, policies, and practices of Brazil’s government related to things like preferential tariffs, ethanol market access, and several other factors are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict U.S. commerce. The U.S. Grains Council appreciates that USTR is taking this step. “The Council is encouraged by the news of the investigation into Brazil that has for years placed unfair tariffs on American ethanol imports,” said USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand. “Finally, we may see U.S. ethanol, its farmers, and producers get a fair shake when it comes to access in Brazil.” The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office has detailed Brazil’s unfair trade practices in its annual National Trade Estimate Report(Link is external). “Brazil’s barriers to trade merit a thorough investigation,” said USTR Jamieson Greer. 

U.S. Corn Export Sales Forecast at Record Levels

The USDA’s Economic Research Service says U.S. corn export sales have continued at a rapid pace and support a 100 million bushel month-to-month increase for the 2024-2025 marketing year. That raises the forecast to a record-high 2.75 billion bushels. If that number is realized, 2024-2025 corn exports will exceed the 2023-2024 estimate by nearly 500 million bushels, or 22 percent. The ERS says that through 300 days of the marketing year, export sales are nearly on pace to match the previously record-setting level realized in the 2020-2021 marketing year. Elevated exports are supported by sizable growth in corn shipments to South Korea, Mexico, and Spain. What’s even more surprising is that U.S. corn exports have surged without significant demand from China. In 2020-2021, shipments to China made up almost 31 percent of U.S. corn exports. This year, shipments to China make up less than one percent of total exports through May 2025. 

Farmland Prices Holding Steady

Farmers National Company says that despite ongoing challenges in commodity markets and uncertain farm profitability, agricultural land values remained surprisingly stable through mid-2025. While producers remain the main buyers of ag land, interest from individual and institutional investors can’t be ignored. As land values stabilize after reaching peaks during the past five years, investors are increasingly attracted by both annual returns and long-term appreciation. Inventory remains limited, with listings down 20-25 percent from the peak in 2020-2021. “The USDA forecasts 2025 net farm income to be the lowest since 2020,” says Paul Shadegg, senior vice president of real estate. “This will influence producer purchasing power and investor returns, especially as input costs, commodity prices, and interest rates fluctuate.” He also says any negative movement in the ag economy could quickly impact the land market. Geopolitical developments like trade policies, tariffs, and global unrest can also create uncertainty in domestic and international markets.

Bankers Release Report on U.S. Farm Banks

The American Bankers Association released its annual Farm Bank Performance Report(Link is external), highlighting the critical role farm banks played in supporting U.S. agriculture in 2024. Despite continued challenges from global uncertainty and lingering supply chain disruptions, farm banks posted solid financial performance, improved asset quality, and increased lending to America’s farmers and ranchers. The U.S. banking industry remains the single largest provider of agricultural credit, holding $205 billion in farm loans by the end of 2024, accounting for nearly 38 percent of total farm lending nationwide. Of that, farm banks held $115 billion, with a focus on small microloans critical to rural producers. “Farm banks continue to be a cornerstone of rural America’s financial well-being,” said Ed Elfmann, ABA’s senior vice president of agricultural and rural banking policy. “In 2024, these institutions demonstrated the strength and resiliency that comes from deep community roots and a commitment to farmers and ranchers,” he added.

Thursday Watch List

Markets

Weekly Export Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Import Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CDT

U.S. Retail Sales at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Weekly Slaughter at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A front that has been slowly pushing southward this week is somewhat stalling from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, bringing multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Some of that could be severe. A new system will move into the Northern Plains late Thursday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms there as well. A small disturbance will also bring heavy rain to Louisiana Thursday.

Farm Bankruptcies Already Exceed Last Year

More U.S. farms filed for bankruptcy in the first three months of 2025 than during the entire 2024 calendar year. That’s according to new research from University of Arkansas Extension Economist Ryan Loy. The information shows that the 259 filings in the first three months of 2025 are the most in any year since 2021. “We’ve already beaten last year in terms of national filings just in the first three months of this year,” Loy said. “Once you see this on a national level, it’s a clear sign that financial pressures that we saw before in 2018 and 2019 are reemerging.” A large part of the pressure comes from the fact that commodity prices are back where they were in the 2018-2019 era. Adding to that pressure are high input costs for seed, fertilizer, pest management tools, and diesel that never seem to decline much or for a long period. 

USDA Blocks Additional Sugar Imports

The USDA announced there will be no additional imports of specialty sugars beyond what U.S. international obligations dictate. “Production agriculture has seen devastating impacts from natural disasters, Biden-era policies, and extraordinary increases to the cost of production,” said Stephen Vaden, USDA Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. “Worse, a trade landscape that, over the last four years, favored foreign competitors over America’s farmers, ranchers, and producers, led to what is projected to be the largest agricultural trade deficit on record.” He also said that although sugar policy is uniquely designed to protect sugar farmers from the dumping of heavily subsidized foreign sugar, those farmers are not immune to the same distress facing other agricultural producers. “Over the last 20 years, sugar imports have more than doubled and producers have lost 15 percent of the U.S. sugar market to imports, leading to closures of mills and processors,” Vaden added. “This decision begins righting the ship.”

Export Inspections Down Across the Board

Inspections of corn, beans, and wheat for offshore delivery all declined week over week. Corn assessments in the seven days that ended on July 10 totaled 1.29 million metric tons. That’s down from 1.56 million tons the previous week, but still ahead of the 1.1 million tons inspected during the same week a year ago. Soybean inspections totaled 147,045 tons, down from almost 400,000 tons the prior week and 175,300 tons at the same point last year. Wheat examinations for export dropped to 439,533 metric tons from more than 522,000 tons the previous week and 622,300 tons a year earlier. Since the start of the marketing year, the USDA has inspected 57.8 million metric tons of corn, 46.4 million tons of soybeans, and wheat inspections since June 1 are now at 2.28 million metric tons. Corn and soybean inspection totals are higher, and the wheat total is lower than last year.

USDA’s Grassland Conservation Reserve Program Signup Now Open

Agricultural producers and private landowners can now enroll in the Grassland Conservation Reserve Program. The signup runs from now until August 8, 2025. Grassland CRP, offered by the USDA’s Farm Service Agency, is a voluntary working lands conservation program that enables participants to conserve grasslands while also continuing most grazing and haying practices. Grassland CRP emphasizes support for grazing operations, plant and animal biodiversity, and grasslands and land with shrubs and forbs under the greatest threat of conversion. “Through the conservation of America’s essential grasslands, Grassland CRP supports continued agricultural productivity while, at the same time, prioritizing private lands stewardship,” said FSA Administrator Bill Beam. “By offering landowners the best of both worlds – economic viability and working lands preservation – Grassland CRP provisions support USDA’s commitment to Farmers First. Farmers and landowners should contact their local USDA Service Center to sign up. CRP, USDA’s flagship conservation program, celebrates its 40th anniversary this year.

Veterinarians Head to Capitol Hill

Hundreds of veterinary professionals will meet with senators, representatives, and their staffs on Thursday, July 17, to advocate for legislation that will help address the emerging threat of illicit xylazine (ZY-lah-zeen) while preserving access to the animal sedative. They’ll also be discussing ways to boost the retention of veterinarians in rural and underserved communities. As part of the legislative fly-in, more than 340 advocates representing 50 states and 37 veterinary schools will urge congressional support for the Combating Illicit Xylazine Act and the Rural Veterinary Workforce Act. The AVMA-backed Combating Illicit Xylazine Act can help to preserve the availability of this prescription animal drug for its critical uses in veterinary medicine as a controlled drug and allow the DEA transparency into the legitimate drug marketplace. The AVMA also endorses the Rural Veterinary Workforce Act, which would eliminate federal taxes on awards from the Veterinary Medicine Loan Repayment Program, making it easier to participate.

U.S. Withdraws from Tomato Suspension Agreement

The U.S. Commerce Department announced it is withdrawing from and terminating the 2019 Agreement Suspending the Antidumping Duty Investigation of Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico. Now that the 2019 Agreement is terminated, Commerce is issuing an antidumping duty order, resulting in duties of 17 percent on most imports of tomatoes from Mexico. Antidumping duties are calculated to measure the percentage by which Mexican tomatoes have been sold in the U.S. at unfair prices. “Mexico remains one of our greatest allies, but for far too long our farmers have been crushed by unfair trade practices that undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “That ends today.” Commerce’s Enforcement and Compliance Unit within the International Trade Administration is responsible for rigorously enforcing U.S. trade laws. Commerce currently maintains 768 antidumping and countervailing duty orders, which provide relief to American companies and workers who have been impacted by unfair trade practices. 

Wednesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Producer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CDT

Industrial production and capacity utilization at 8:15 a.m. CDT

EIA Petroleum Status Report including weekly ethanol production at 9:30 a.m. CDT

Weather

A front continues to push slowly southward into the Central Plains and Midwest on Wednesday, producing widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain and severe weather will be possible near the front. Colder temperatures are filtering in behind the front while it stays hot and humid ahead of it. That could lead to some isolated showers for the southeastern quadrant of the country throughout the day. We will also be watching the northern Gulf of America as a disturbance could take on some tropical characteristics Wednesday or Thursday.

Trump Threatens Mexico, EU with 30 Percent Tariff

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump threatened to put a 30 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Europe beginning on August 1, 2025. The move comes after weeks of negotiations that have not concluded in a comprehensive trade deal. The President announced the threats in separate letters to Mexican and EU leaders. Those letters were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. Reuters said the EU and Mexico are among the largest trading partners for the U.S. and responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the U.S. for a broader trade deal before the deadline. The effect on U.S. agriculture could be significant. U.S. Department of Agriculture data says Mexico made up 69 percent of America’s vegetable imports and 51 percent of fresh fruit imports. With short shelf lives, produce could see price hikes faster than other goods. 

Mexico Aiming for SAF Production by 2030

Mexico intends to produce its own sustainable aviation fuel by 2030. Julio Diaz Cruz of the National Chamber of Air Transport says success will depend on industry stakeholders collaborating effectively. Cruz said Mexico’s Federal Civil Aviation Agency is leading the development of a National SAF Roadmap. The document, expected by the end of this year, will outline key actions, including research and development, economic incentives, and other important factors. A study published last year estimated that Mexico would need approximately $49 billion in U.S. investments between 2025 and 2050 to develop at least one SAF production facility. Mexico Business News said the project will require an additional $204 billion in regional investments from countries like Colombia, Chile, and Ecuador. However, it will only be successful with economic incentives instead of mandates. David Ortiz of Aeromexico says Europe is using incentives instead of mandates, and they’re proving difficult to implement. 

Biofuel Producers to Use a Lot of U.S. Soybean Oil Production

American biofuel manufacturers will use over half of all the soybean oil produced in the U.S. next year. Agriculture Dot Com says a recent series of policy moves at the federal level have transformed the sector, including higher blending mandates and curbs on foreign biofuel imports and feedstocks. In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA sharply raised its outlook for soybean oil use by biofuel producers in the 2025-2026 marketing year to a record 15.5 billion pounds, up 11.5 percent from last month. American soy oil exports were predicted to drop to 700 million pounds as more oil is consumed domestically, down from 2.6 billion pounds in the current season. The Environmental Protection Agency significantly raised blending mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard and proposed to cut the number of Renewable Identification Numbers generated for imported renewable fuels and renewable fuels produced from foreign feedstocks beginning in 2026. 

Future Ag Leaders Explore Innovation and Entrepreneurship

The 2025 New Century Farmer Conference will take place July 20-24 in Indianapolis, Indiana, bringing together 50 elite FFA alumni from 22 states to advance their leadership and career skills. It was a unique opportunity to learn about working in the agriculture industry from several different experts. Nearly a third of the participants are first-generation producers, with the majority of them being interested in farm ownership or entrepreneurship as potential career paths. “There’s something powerful that happens when our New Century Farmers from across the country come together to learn about agriculture from people who live and breathe it every day,” said Emma Mendez, National FFA Program Manager of Alumni and Supporters. “These connections spark curiosity, build confidence, and open doors to the future. It’s not just about learning but about being a part of something bigger.” As a part of the conference, participants will visit two local farms. 

Trade Mission Underway in the Dominican Republic

Michelle Bekkering, deputy undersecretary for trade and foreign agriculture affairs at the USDA, arrived in the Dominican Republic on Monday to lead an agribusiness trade mission to expand market access and boost U.S. agricultural exports. The delegation includes 47 agribusinesses, trade organizations, and representatives from three state departments of agriculture. “This trade mission will connect U.S. exporters with key buyers, tapping into Latin America’s growing demand for high-quality American agricultural products, supporting rural prosperity, and keeping American agriculture globally competitive,” Bekkering said. The Dominican Republic is a prime opportunity for U.S. producers, with an expanding middle class, steady economic growth, and a growing hotel and restaurant industry. It’s the fourth-largest market for U.S. agricultural products in the Western Hemisphere. Consumer-oriented products continue to drive this growth, with increasing demand for fresh fruit, dairy products, as well as wine and distilled spirits. The U.S. supplies 44 percent of the country’s agricultural imports. 

Farm Bureau Extends Top Dog Registration Deadline

Farmers have until July 25 to submit nominations for the 2026 Farm Bureau Farm Dog of the Year Contest, which comes with cash prizes and bragging rights. It’s the eighth year of the contest that celebrates farm dogs and the many ways they support farmers and ranchers. The grand prize winner gets a year’s worth of Purina Pro Plan dog food and $5,000 in prize money. The winner will be recognized at a Farm Dog of the Year awards ceremony at the American Farm Bureau Convention in Anaheim, California, in January 2026. “Farm dogs play an important role on the farm or ranch and hold a special place in our hearts,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “They show up every day without complaint and are eager to pitch in.” Farm Dog of the Year nominations, which include written responses to questions, must be received by July 25 for consideration. 

Tuesday Watch List

Markets

U.S. Consumer Price Index at 7:30 a.m. CDT

USDA ERS Various Commodity Outlooks at 2 p.m. CDT

Weather

A strong front is pushing through the Northern Plains early Tuesday morning. Widespread areas of showers and thunderstorms are found along that front, which will continue to build throughout the day as the front drops south through more of the North-Central U.S. Areas of heavy rain and severe weather will be possible. Other isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop arcing from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic and areas to the south.

USDA Slightly Lowers Corn Production, Boosts Old-Crop Corn Exports to Record Level

In Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation, while soybean ending stocks were increased month-over-month more than the average expectation. Old-crop corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.75 billion bushels. The 2025-26 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion bushels. Corn planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June. USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased its crush forecast by 50 mb to 2.54 mb while cutting exports by 70 mb.

Trump Says He’ll Hike Existing Canada Tariffs, Slams Dairy Market Access

President Donald Trump said late last week that Canada will face higher duties for some products beginning next month due to the Canadian government’s decision to retaliate against U.S. duties applied earlier this year. He also took the opportunity to reiterate his call for greater market access for U.S. dairy producers. From Aug. 1, Canadian products not covered by the USMCA will face a 35% tariff, up from the existing 25%. Energy products and potash will still face the reduced 10% rate. Trump also took aim at what has become one of his top peeves with the U.S.’s northern neighbors: high out-of-quota tariffs on dairy products.  U.S. dairy producers have long complained that Canada’s allocation of its tariff-rate quotas for dairy products disincentivizes purchases of U.S. products, leaving their quotas unfilled. Dairy producers in New Zealand have raised similar gripes with Ottawa, and the issue has been the subject of challenges under the USMCA and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership dispute resolution mechanisms.

National FFA Next Gen Conference in Philadelphia Welcomed Students from Across the Country

The National FFA Organization, the nation’s premier school-based student leadership organization with over one million members, recently hosted its second Next Gen Conference of the year in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from June 24-28. Next Gen Conferences provide FFA student members with a look into career opportunities within the industry of agriculture. The June conference brought together 73 high school sophomores, juniors and seniors to learn more about the value of agricultural education through career exploration sessions, industry roundtables, and tours. Each tour stop was carefully planned to provide a learning experience for the student attendees, one of which was the Milton Hershey School, founded by chocolatier Milton Hershey and his wife. Each student who attends Milton Hershey School graduates with at least one industry-related certification through the school’s Career and Technical Education (CTE) Program. The school also boasts agricultural-related programming such as The Animal Center, The Horticulture Center, The Environmental Center, and The Ag Operations Center, collectively allowing students to learn about the different aspects of agriculture.

Report: Shrinking Labor Force Poised to Threaten US Economic Growth

Declining labor force participation, lower birth rates and a collapse in net migration are combining to squeeze the U.S. labor supply. The looming labor shortage could begin to weigh on businesses and strain economic growth as soon as later this year, according to a new quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. With the labor supply about to get tighter, businesses and industries operating in rural America should be increasing their focus on technology to overcome labor availability challenges. The labor force participation rate has trended downward since 2000, and the trend may be accelerating. Nearly 2.5 million working-aged people dropped out of the labor force in the past eight months alone. The U.S. fertility rate has plummeted since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, reducing the number of native-born citizens entering the workforce. The loss of those new workers coincides with baby boom generation retirements, amplifying the impact on the overall labor supply.

USDA Ends Programs, Policies Supporting 'Socially Disadvantaged' Farmers and Ranchers

The Department of Agriculture will no longer recognize race- or gender-based criteria when it comes to farm programs, dropping the "socially disadvantaged" designation despite the provision still being in federal law. USDA published a final rule Thursday in the Federal Register announcing the "Removal of Unconstitutional Preferences Based on Race and Sex in Response to Court Ruling." The rule is effective immediately. The rule will affect about 20% of USDA's total farm-loan volume and affect loans and programs for roughly 4.5% of ethnic producers and more than 1.2 million women farmers. The rule also will remove any special incentives for loans and conservation programs. The rule follows two presidential executive orders issued by President Donald Trump, including Executive Order 14173, "Ending Illegal Discrimination and Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity." The Trump administration has been focused on removing any funding tied to "diversity, equity or inclusion," or DEI initiatives.

Study Finds That Drought Can Add Two Days to Heat Wave Duration

A recent study finds that drought can lengthen heat waves if these two features occur at the same time. This connection is familiar to anyone who has labored through a blistering hot day during a dry spell; however, the quantifying of this drought-heat wave relationship is noteworthy, nonetheless. A NOAA/NIDIS news release on this project stated that "researchers examined the influence of drought on heat wave intensity, duration, and human exposure to extreme heat using air temperature, soil moisture, and soil temperature observations from across the country." Research team members found that drought increased the average duration of heat waves by 13 to 48 hours at most of the weather stations included in the study. Nationally, heat waves during drought had an average of about nine more hours of extreme heat compared to heat waves that occur in non-drought conditions. Research results were recently published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Monday Watch List

Markets

Export Inspections at 10 a.m. CDT

ERS Season Average Price Forecasts at 1 p.m. CDT

ERS Wheat Data at 1 p.m. CDT

Weekly Crop Progress at 3 p.m. CDT

Weather

Isolated to scattered showers continue from the Southern Plains through the Northeast and all areas south on Monday due to a lot of leftover features that are milling about the area as well as some heat and humidity. A front is swinging south through the Canadian Prairies and will get into the Northern Plains Monday night, being a focal point for showers and thunderstorms as well.

Rollins Shuts Down Southern Ports Again

A new case of New World screwworm appeared this week, only 160 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border. USDA had previously announced a risk-based phased-in port reopening strategy for cattle, bison, and equine from Mexico that began on July 7. The new case raises significant concerns in the U.S. and compromises the outlined port reopening schedule for five ports in the southern U.S. In order to protect American livestock and the nation’s food supply, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately. “The U.S. promised to be vigilant, and after detecting the new case, we are pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico,” Rollins said. “We must see progress in multiple Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” Aggressive USDA staff monitoring allowed the U.S. to take quick action. 

NCBA Applauds Quick Closure of Southern Ports

The USDA is again closing southern ports of entry to shipments of cattle due to the detection of New World screwworm in Veracruz (VEHR-ah-cruise), Mexico. USDA discovered the new case in Veracruz, indicating that the screwworm has traveled 160 miles northward of the location where sterile flies are currently being dropped. “The New World screwworm’s northern movement jeopardizes the safety of American agriculture, which is why Secretary Rollins paused cattle movement again until we can push the pest further from the southern U.S. border,” said NCBA CEO Collin Woodall. “Unfortunately, screwworm continues moving north through Mexico, and it’s clear that the U.S. needs a sterile fly facility of our own here at home.” He also said America can’t afford to wait any longer and strongly urged USDA to immediately begin work on a sterile fly facility. Moore Air Base in Texas will be the site of a new sterile fly facility. 

Consumer Watchdog Group Applauds Suit Against California Over Egg Costs

The Center for the Environment and Welfare applauded the Trump administration’s lawsuit filed this week to nullify onerous California regulations driving up food prices nationwide. The filing takes aim at three California laws, including Proposition 12, dictating farming practices for eggs and pork. In practice, Prop 12 forces farmers around the country to adopt California’s radical production standards while prohibiting veterinarian-approved animal husbandry practices. The Center says the three laws were pushed by radical animal activists who don’t believe people should eat eggs or pork at all. “It’s great to see the administration taking decisive action to protect the country from California’s overreaching policies, but Americans facing high food costs can’t afford to wait for years of court appeals,” says Jack Hubbard, the CEW’s executive director. “Polls show California voters now regret the passage of Proposition 12, and there is strong bipartisan support for Congressional legislation to nullify the farm mandates.”

Illegal Pesticide Smuggling Surging in Europe

The cost of spraying crops with pesticides is continuing to get more expensive across the European Union. Farmers in countries like Greece are finding cheaper alternatives in unlabeled bottles smuggled into the country. Reuters says a dozen farmers quoted anonymously say the products are more effective than what they regularly use. However, they’re also potentially more harmful. Laboratory tests show the bottles contain pesticides banned in the EU for several years due to suspected risks to humans and the environment. The pesticide smuggling in Greece is showing up in other areas across the European Union. EU authorities say the use of banned and counterfeit pesticides is higher than ever. This comes as the EU is looking to reduce the use of even permitted crop protection products as part of its green transition. At least 14 percent of pesticides used in EU fields are illegal, up from about 10 percent in 2015. 

Food Spending Increases from 2023-2024

USDA says per capita total U.S. food spending increased 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024, slightly outpacing the 2.3 percent increase in food prices during the same period. That showed a stronger demand for food despite higher prices. However, national trends in sales mask uneven growth across multiple U.S. states. Three states showed a decrease in per capita food sales, with New Hampshire dropping the most at two percent in 2024. This was driven by a 6.6 percent increase in sales at grocery stores, supercenters, and other food-at-home stores. West Virginia and Kansas were the only other states where total per capita food sales declined, dropping by one percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Per capita food sales increased the most in Washington, D.C., rising ten percent, and were driven by food away from home sales. Other states with high growth included New York at 5.9 percent and California at 5.5 percent.