U.S. agricultural trade registered a deficit for July, marking three out of the last four months with trade red ink. U.S. ag export values held basically steady in July at $10.79 billion against imports that rose to $10.91 billion for the $115 million monthly deficit.
With the cumulative ag exports in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 at $114.0 billion and imports at $110.4 billion, it suggests USDA’s recently updated outlook for FY 2019 ag exports to be close as imports would have to average just under $9.5 billion in August and September and exports would have to average $10.25 billion to meet the export forecast of $134.5 billion and imports at a record $129.3 billion.
Typically, imports register their lowest mark of the fiscal year in September. It would appear the import forecast from USDA is at risk for being too low at $129.3 billion. The value of ag imports has not registered back-to-back months of less than $10 billion since FY 2017.
The current forecast ag trade surplus of $5.2 billion would be the smallest since it was $4.57 billion in FY 2006.
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