U.S. agricultural exports rose in May while U.S. agricultural imports fell, but the sector still registered its second consecutive monthly trade deficit.
The value of exports rose to $11.4 billion, up from $11.24 billion in April. Imports fell to $11.65 billion, down from a record $12.1 billion in April, which left a trade deficit of $250 million compared with the record from April of $865 million.
This is the first time U.S. agriculture has registered back-to-back monthly trade deficits since April and May of 2016.
Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 U.S. ag exports have reached $92.42 billion, down from $99.19 billion at this point in FY 2018. Imports, meanwhile, are valued at $88.89 billion, up from $86.83 billion at this stage in FY 2018. With USDA forecasting FY 2019 U.S. ag exports at $137 billion, exports would need to average $11.15 billion per month to hit that mark.
However, the final months of the fiscal year typically do not see lofty U.S. export values. But if U.S. ag exports match the year-ago levels for the remainder of FY 2019, U.S. ag exports would total just under the USDA forecast. For imports, they would need to average $10.03 billion to hit USDA’s FY 2019 forecast of a record $129 billion. That would seem to be a reachable mark even though imports typically decline in the final months of the FY.
Since October 2017, the value of U.S. ag imports has only been below $10 billion two months. The biggest risk would appear to be USDA’s import forecast being too low, but the export mark could prove difficult to reach.
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