U.S. meat production continued to climb to record levels in 2018 and that trend will continue in 2019

Total red meat and poultry production grew 2% to a record 102.4 billion pounds last year, and USDA expects these categories to increase by 2% again in 2019, to reach a new record of 104.7 billion pounds. These projections were released early Friday in USDA's outlook for livestock and poultry, at the agency's annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia. This steady rise in production kept cattle, hog and turkey prices lower last year, as well as broiler prices, which rose briefly in the first half of the year before dropping in the second half. USDA expects prices for cattle and turkey to rise in 2019, but hog and broiler prices are forecast to drop lower. Exports for 2019 are expected to increase for all the major commodities, but pork growth may be held back by ongoing trade disputes. CATTLE & BEEF The government shutdown in January has delayed USDA's January Cattle report, which forced the agency to rely on inventory estimates from July 2018, and current herd estimates are not available at this time. As of July, the 2018 calf crop was estimated at 36.5 million head, 2% up from 2017, and the largest calf crop since 2007. Although herd expansion continued in 2018, there are indications that is slowing. Producers indicated that they were retaining fewer heifers, and higher levels of beef cow slaughter were reported through much of the year. Commercial beef production for 2019 is forecast to increase by 3% to 27.61 billion pounds, which broke the previous record for production set in 2002. Total commercial cattle slaughter is expected to rise in 2019 by nearly 1%. Beef exports are forecast to have increased by 11% for 2018, with competitive U.S. beef prices and global demand holding steady. For 2019, exports are expected to rise 2% to reach 3.26 billion pounds. USDA predicts U.S. exports will face higher prices in 2019, but drought and flooding in Australia may limit competing supplies. Beef imports are expected to reach 3.01 billion pounds, just barely up from 2018 levels. The 5-Area steer price for 2018 is expected to average $115 to $122 per cwt, up slightly from 2018. Cow-calf operators and backgrounders will likely see lower prices in 2019, given higher projected feed prices and large supplies of cattle in feedlots. Feeder steer prices are forecast to average $141 to $148 per cwt, compared to $147 in 2018.