Washington Insider -- Trade Policy Lobby Weakened

There's a somewhat strange refrain circulating in Washington just now -- Bloomberg says that companies are complaining that the tough U.S. trade stance has fueled a lobbying blitz, but that "old playbooks are of little use in talking the Trump administration out of imposing a broad range of tariffs."That's due in part to the president's impulsive, go-it-alone style, Bloomberg says, because it often cuts out lawmakers and leaves few paths to his decision makers. Lobbyists said they're frustrated and searching for other ways to reach the decider-in-chief."No one knows the answer, to be honest," Gary Horlick, a Washington trade lawyer, said. "I've been in meetings that normally would have been, 'You take chairman so-and-so, I'll work on ranking member such-and-such,' and now the meetings are, 'What do we think Trump might be interested in' -- not intellectually, but like, 'What will he see?'"It is true that lobbying registrations on trade issues during the first quarter were the second-highest since 2010, behind only the first quarter of 2017, Bloomberg reports. There also were 257 activity filings in the first three months of 2018 from 220 companies and associations that identified tariff cases as a lobbying issue.Then, the president imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in March on grounds of protecting national security, even though it has been widely reported that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and industry groups urged him not to pursue them because of the threat of a trade war. Bloomberg notes that the policy likely is proceeding despite opposition to duties from the business community, including a coordinated effort by a coalition of more than 100 trade groups, and jitters in the U.S. stock market "whenever the tariff saber is rattled."But while lobbyists are still pursuing meetings with the usual targets, reaching Trump's inner circle doesn't always work, because he's been willing to overrule aides -- as when the White House announced on May 29 the duties on Chinese goods were proceeding, only days after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said they were "on hold."Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, now lobbies for Squire Patton Boggs LP on behalf of clients including the Solar Energy Industries Association and NLMK USA, which is seeking an exclusion from steel import tariffs. "There's no question that the president has his hand on all these trade moves and activities," Lott said, adding that trade is something that Trump "has strong feelings" about.In response, "some lobbyists have turned to the media to convey their message," Bloomberg says. The president is known to regularly watch the morning news show "Fox & Friends," so the National Retail Federation ran a commercial on the program in May, hoping that he'd see it, said David French, the group's senior vice president for government relations. The ad featured actor and economist Ben Stein, reprising his role as the economics teacher from the 1986 comedy "Ferris Bueller's Day Off," arguing that duties are "B-A-D Economics."For its part, the U.S. Chamber released a new analysis this week that argues that retaliatory duties on about $75 billion in U.S.exports from China and other countries as of this week will affect each state. Michigan, for example, which helped deliver the presidency to Trump, has more than $2.3 billion in automobiles and other products subject to tariffs, the chamber's analysis shows. Chamber President and Chief Executive Officer Thomas Donohue said in a statement. "It's time to reverse course and adopt smarter, more effective approaches for addressing trade concerns with commercial partners."One of the biggest adjustments for lobbyists with Trump compared with previous presidents is that while actions by other administrations were taken at face value, what Trump says and does may just be meant as leverage, said Frank Samolis, partner and co-chairman of the International Trade Group at Squire Patton Boggs. That's made it a challenge to interpret Trump for clients making long-term investment decisions, he said. "It certainly is a new world with Trump," he said. "People that are used to traditional trade lobbying are forced to recalibrate."Nobody's quite figured how to best influence an unpredictable president, said Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at New America, a Washington think tank, who's written about lobbying. "A lot of companies are struggling to figure out, how do you convince this guy?" Drutman said. "He seems to be — 'whimsical' would be a generous word, 'capricious,' 'mercurial' would probably be more appropriate -— and there's really no playbook."So, the prospects for increased trade tensions seem to be proceeding apace, without regard for business concerns. This certainly is a trend producers should follow closely as it evolves, Washington Insider believes.