ERS: US Ag Trade Surplus Falling

A narrowing of the U.S. agricultural trade surplus was seen last year and is forecast to continue this year, as US agricultural imports continue to grow and U.S. agricultural exports continue to decline, according to the Economic Research Service (ERS).

U.S. ag imports and exports have grown each year from Fiscal 2009 through Fiscal 2014, propelling the U.S. ag trade surplus to a record $43.1 billion for Fiscal 2014. The value of ag exports then declined by 8.3% in Fiscal 2015, while U.S. ag imports continued to grow by 4.5%, reducing the trade surplus to $25.7 billion.

U.S. ag exports are forecast to decline again in 2016 and ag imports are expected to continue growing, leading to an expected trade surplus of under $10 billion for the first time since 2006. Lower commodity prices and a stronger dollar are the primary driver in the decline in the value of US ag exports, while the strong dollar is also a driver in the increase in US ag imports thanks to increased American purchasing power.